2018 season ledger
Actual results beside all-play expectation, schedule counterfactuals, weekly receipts, rivalries, and archived player evidence.
Actual and all-play standings
All-play is a score comparison, not a prediction of skill.
| Manager | W–L | PF | Expected wins | Luck points | Luck in wins | Lucky | Unlucky | All-play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miller | 11–2 | 1878.31 | 8.769 | +0.5 | +0.038 | 2 | 1 | 67.5% |
| Horgan | 9–4 | 2162.01 | 10.231 | -6.5 | -0.500 | 0 | 3 | 78.7% |
| Joe Shore | 9–4 | 1886.23 | 7.538 | +12.0 | +0.923 | 4 | 2 | 58.0% |
| Martin | 9–4 | 1827.85 | 7.846 | +0.5 | +0.038 | 1 | 0 | 60.4% |
| j-mart | 8–5 | 1797.91 | 7.077 | +3.5 | +0.269 | 2 | 1 | 54.4% |
| Niz | 8–5 | 1706.36 | 6.385 | +2.5 | +0.192 | 3 | 0 | 49.1% |
| Josh | 7–6 | 1908.85 | 7.538 | -3.0 | -0.231 | 1 | 1 | 58.0% |
| Kev | 7–6 | 1789.32 | 7.615 | -3.0 | -0.231 | 1 | 3 | 58.6% |
| Big Hut | 7–6 | 1625.21 | 6.154 | +1.5 | +0.115 | 3 | 2 | 47.3% |
| Nevans | 6–7 | 1674.63 | 6.077 | -1.5 | -0.115 | 1 | 2 | 46.7% |
| Demich | 5–8 | 1667.18 | 6.000 | -2.0 | -0.154 | 1 | 3 | 46.2% |
| Adam | 3–10 | 1471.35 | 3.077 | +2.5 | +0.192 | 2 | 1 | 23.7% |
| Krajcik | 1–12 | 1523.49 | 4.308 | -6.5 | -0.500 | 0 | 3 | 33.1% |
| Fischer | 1–12 | 1408.78 | 2.385 | +1.5 | +0.115 | 1 | 0 | 18.3% |
All-play order
- Horgan — 10.231 expected wins; 133–36–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Miller — 8.769 expected wins; 114–55–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Martin — 7.846 expected wins; 102–67–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Kev — 7.615 expected wins; 99–70–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Josh — 7.538 expected wins; 98–71–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Joe Shore — 7.538 expected wins; 98–71–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- j-mart — 7.077 expected wins; 92–77–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Niz — 6.385 expected wins; 83–86–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Big Hut — 6.154 expected wins; 80–89–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Nevans — 6.077 expected wins; 79–90–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Demich — 6.000 expected wins; 78–91–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Krajcik — 4.308 expected wins; 56–113–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Adam — 3.077 expected wins; 40–129–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Fischer — 2.385 expected wins; 31–138–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Latest weekly receipts
All exact ties share the award.
Robbery of the Week
- JoshRank 3, 158.32 points, lost by 1.75. Open matchup
Get Out of Jail Free
- j-martRank 8, 118.56 points, won by 22.79. Open matchup
Cumulative luck in wins
Normalized before totals are compared across league sizes.
| Manager | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.27 |
| Miller | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 |
| Demich | -0.12 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.35 | -0.35 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 |
| Krajcik | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.50 |
| Joe Shore | +0.42 | +0.42 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.42 | +0.77 | +1.19 | +1.19 | +1.19 | +0.92 | +0.92 |
| Kev | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.08 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.23 | -0.23 |
| Adam | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 |
| Martin | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 |
| Josh | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | -0.23 |
| Fischer | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.12 |
| Big Hut | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.38 | +0.42 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 |
| Horgan | 0.00 | -0.27 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.50 |
| Niz | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.15 | +0.19 | +0.19 |
| Nevans | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | -0.08 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.12 |
Schedule Swap
Each score stays in its original week. Only the schedule owner changes.
| Source team | Best owner | Record | Worst owner | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Nevans | 10–3 (+2.0) | Kev | 5–8 (-3.0) |
| Miller | Miller | 11–2 (0.0) | Kev | 7–6 (-4.0) |
| Demich | Big Hut | 8–5 (+3.0) | Horgan | 4–9 (-1.0) |
| Krajcik | Nevans | 7–6 (+6.0) | Krajcik | 1–12 (0.0) |
| Joe Shore | Big Hut | 10–3 (+1.0) | Demich | 6–7 (-3.0) |
| Kev | Nevans | 10–3 (+3.0) | Adam | 5–8 (-2.0) |
| Adam | Niz | 5–8 (+2.0) | Horgan | 1–12 (-2.0) |
| Martin | Big Hut | 10–3 (+1.0) | Fischer | 5–8 (-4.0) |
| Josh | Joe Shore | 10–3 (+3.0) | Fischer | 5–8 (-2.0) |
| Fischer | Big Hut | 5–8 (+4.0) | Demich | 0–13 (-1.0) |
| Big Hut | Nevans | 9–4 (+2.0) | Martin | 4–9 (-3.0) |
| Horgan | Niz | 12–1 (+3.0) | j-mart | 9–4 (0.0) |
| Niz | j-mart | 8–5 (0.0) | Adam | 3–10 (-5.0) |
| Nevans | Big Hut | 8–5 (+2.0) | Horgan | 4–9 (-2.0) |
Everybody's Super Bowl
Opponent score minus that opponent's mean in other eligible weeks. Each baseline needs two other weeks.
| Manager | Mean excess | Meetings | Largest receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | -1.87 pts | 13 | Joe Shore: +64.82 pts |
| Miller | -10.36 pts | 13 | Nevans: +47.57 pts |
| Demich | +1.92 pts | 13 | Big Hut: +37.14 pts |
| Krajcik | +10.37 pts | 13 | Horgan: +49.64 pts |
| Joe Shore | -12.79 pts | 13 | Niz: +50.27 pts |
| Kev | -1.70 pts | 13 | Martin: +51.59 pts |
| Adam | +14.48 pts | 13 | Joe Shore: +62.66 pts |
| Martin | +0.94 pts | 13 | Joe Shore: +47.11 pts |
| Josh | +7.96 pts | 13 | Horgan: +60.04 pts |
| Fischer | +9.53 pts | 13 | Josh: +59.98 pts |
| Big Hut | -5.10 pts | 13 | Josh: +59.16 pts |
| Horgan | +7.65 pts | 13 | Adam: +65.19 pts |
| Niz | -11.21 pts | 13 | Demich: +18.81 pts |
| Nevans | -9.83 pts | 13 | Krajcik: +43.99 pts |
Cupcake Schedule / Murderers' Row
Opponent percentile excludes both the focal team and the opponent. Higher means harder.
| Manager | Difficulty | Games | PA/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 46.8% | 13 | 131.58 |
| Miller | 41.0% | 13 | 123.28 |
| Demich | 56.4% | 13 | 135.86 |
| Krajcik | 57.1% | 13 | 144.50 |
| Joe Shore | 40.4% | 13 | 120.99 |
| Kev | 48.1% | 13 | 131.80 |
| Adam | 64.1% | 13 | 148.61 |
| Martin | 53.8% | 13 | 134.00 |
| Josh | 56.4% | 13 | 140.01 |
| Fischer | 57.7% | 13 | 144.41 |
| Big Hut | 39.1% | 13 | 129.63 |
| Horgan | 58.3% | 13 | 138.22 |
| Niz | 41.0% | 13 | 123.50 |
| Nevans | 39.7% | 13 | 124.96 |
Heart Attack Club
A close game has a margin of 5.00 points or less, inclusive.
| Manager | Close record | Games | Win-credit rate | Closest win | Closest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 4.54 | None |
| Miller | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Demich | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 0.44 | None |
| Krajcik | 0–2 | 2 | 0.0% | None | 1.49 |
| Joe Shore | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 1.11 | None |
| Kev | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 1.75 | None |
| Adam | 2–0 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.67 | None |
| Martin | 2–1 | 3 | 66.7% | 1.49 | 1.65 |
| Josh | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 3.44 | 1.75 |
| Fischer | 0–3 | 3 | 0.0% | None | 0.44 |
| Big Hut | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 2.01 | 4.97 |
| Horgan | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 4.54 |
| Niz | 1–2 | 3 | 33.3% | 4.97 | 2.95 |
| Nevans | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 1.65 | 1.11 |
Paper Tiger / Wasted Talent
Actual win-credit rate against all-play win rate. The diagonal means equality.
| Manager | Actual | All-play | Gap | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 61.5% | 54.4% | +7.1 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Miller | 84.6% | 67.5% | +17.2 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Demich | 38.5% | 46.2% | -7.7 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Krajcik | 7.7% | 33.1% | -25.4 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Joe Shore | 69.2% | 58.0% | +11.2 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Kev | 53.8% | 58.6% | -4.7 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Adam | 23.1% | 23.7% | -0.6 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Martin | 69.2% | 60.4% | +8.9 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Josh | 53.8% | 58.0% | -4.1 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Fischer | 7.7% | 18.3% | -10.7 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Big Hut | 53.8% | 47.3% | +6.5 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Horgan | 69.2% | 78.7% | -9.5 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Niz | 61.5% | 49.1% | +12.4 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Nevans | 46.2% | 46.7% | -0.6 pp | Wasted Talent |
The Roller Coaster
Population standard deviation of weekly all-play percentile. Two weeks required.
| Manager | Volatility | Mean percentile | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 31.4 pp | 54.4% | 13 |
| Miller | 22.4 pp | 67.5% | 13 |
| Demich | 25.8 pp | 46.2% | 13 |
| Krajcik | 28.8 pp | 33.1% | 13 |
| Joe Shore | 38.2 pp | 58.0% | 13 |
| Kev | 29.5 pp | 58.6% | 13 |
| Adam | 21.2 pp | 23.7% | 13 |
| Martin | 26.8 pp | 60.4% | 13 |
| Josh | 33.3 pp | 58.0% | 13 |
| Fischer | 14.3 pp | 18.3% | 13 |
| Big Hut | 26.3 pp | 47.3% | 13 |
| Horgan | 19.8 pp | 78.7% | 13 |
| Niz | 21.7 pp | 49.1% | 13 |
| Nevans | 25.3 pp | 46.7% | 13 |
Nemesis / Has Their Number
Stable-manager regular-season records. Postseason is kept separate on manager pages.
| Manager | Nemesis | Record | Has Their Number | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Joe Shore | 0–1 | Adam | 1–0 |
| Miller | j-mart | 0–1 | Josh | 1–0 |
| Demich | Big Hut | 0–1 | Kev | 1–0 |
| Krajcik | Horgan | 0–1 | Nevans | 1–0 |
| Joe Shore | Niz | 0–1 | Adam | 1–0 |
| Kev | Martin | 0–1 | Krajcik | 1–0 |
| Adam | Joe Shore | 0–1 | Krajcik | 1–0 |
| Martin | Joe Shore | 0–1 | Big Hut | 1–0 |
| Josh | Horgan | 0–1 | Fischer | 1–0 |
| Fischer | Josh | 0–1 | Krajcik | 1–0 |
| Big Hut | Josh | 0–1 | Demich | 1–0 |
| Horgan | Kev | 0–1 | Josh | 1–0 |
| Niz | Josh | 0–1 | Krajcik | 1–0 |
| Nevans | Krajcik | 0–1 | Fischer | 1–0 |
Archived player statistics
Hindsight lineup using the archived roster and Yahoo-reported position eligibility; not a reconstruction of kickoff-time options.
Tinker Failures
| Manager | Points left | Avoidable losses | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 115.28 | 1 | |
| Miller | 136.14 | 0 | |
| Demich | 74.38 | 1 | |
| Krajcik | 155.94 | 3 | |
| Joe Shore | 116.00 | 0 | |
| Kev | 74.68 | 1 | |
| Adam | 273.26 | 3 | |
| Martin | 178.06 | 1 | |
| Josh | 134.34 | 1 | |
| Fischer | 131.12 | 3 | |
| Big Hut | 216.38 | 0 | |
| Horgan | 165.22 | 0 | |
| Niz | 157.73 | 2 | |
| Nevans | 168.54 | 1 |
Carried by One Guy
| Manager | Leading player | Share | Positive starter points | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Patrick Mahomes | 19.5% | 1801.91 | 13 weeks
|
| Miller | Davante Adams | 14.4% | 1878.31 | 13 weeks |
| Demich | Travis Kelce | 14.9% | 1667.18 | 13 weeks
|
| Krajcik | Julio Jones | 16.4% | 1524.04 | |
| Joe Shore | Ezekiel Elliott | 14.5% | 1886.23 | |
| Kev | Antonio Brown | 14.7% | 1789.32 | |
| Adam | Tom Brady | 13.6% | 1477.66 | 13 weeks
|
| Martin | Christian McCaffrey | 16.8% | 1827.85 | 13 weeks
|
| Josh | Odell Beckham Jr. | 12.6% | 1910.56 | 13 weeks |
| Fischer | Adam Thielen | 20.5% | 1411.21 | |
| Big Hut | Saquon Barkley | 19.2% | 1630.34 | 13 weeks
|
| Horgan | Todd Gurley | 15.8% | 2162.01 | |
| Niz | Alvin Kamara | 17.3% | 1712.44 | |
| Nevans | Deshaun Watson | 14.4% | 1675.03 | 13 weeks
|
Opponent's Final Boss
| Manager | Leading opponent | Damage | Leader encounters | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Antonio Brown | 46.53 | 1 | |
| Miller | No single-player result flip | 0.00 | 0 | |
| Demich | Alvin Kamara | 260.40 | 1 | |
| Krajcik | Zach Ertz | 326.52 | 1 | |
| Joe Shore | Mitchell Trubisky | 14.82 | 1 | |
| Kev | Alvin Kamara | 101.72 | 1 | |
| Adam | James White | 133.83 | 1 | |
| Martin | Isaiah Crowell | 121.68 | 1 | |
| Josh | Tarik Cohen | 207.09 | 1 | |
| Fischer | Saquon Barkley | 358.89 | 1 | 12 weeks
|
| Big Hut | Alvin Kamara | 90.34 | 1 | |
| Horgan | Patrick Mahomes | 132.09 | 1 | |
| Niz | Tom Brady | 223.80 | 1 | |
| Nevans | Carson Wentz | 260.23 | 1 |
Postseason scorecards
Actual participants only. These scores do not enter regular-season luck.