2018 week 2 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 11 – 17, 2018

j-mart

168.91

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Demich

139.18

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.70 points left. Optimal 182.61 vs. actual 168.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	40.84	Patrick Mahomes	40.84
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	15.40	Marvin Jones Jr.	15.40
WR	Michael Thomas	30.90	Michael Thomas	30.90
RB	Lamar Miller	9.00	Lamar Miller	9.00
RB	Melvin Gordon III	30.60	Melvin Gordon III	30.60
TE	Evan Engram	19.70	Evan Engram	19.70
W/R/T	Pierre Garcon	9.70	Dede Westbrook	17.60
W/R/T	Peyton Barber	3.90	Pierre Garcon	9.70
K	Harrison Butker	6.00	Harrison Butker	6.00
DEF	Vikings	2.87	Vikings	2.87

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 40.84 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.70 points left. Optimal 140.88 vs. actual 139.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	26.68	Matthew Stafford	26.68
WR	Michael Crabtree	10.60	Demaryius Thomas	6.80
WR	Demaryius Thomas	6.80	Michael Crabtree	10.60
RB	David Johnson	6.10	Chris Thompson	22.30
RB	Jordan Howard	9.80	Jordan Howard	9.80
TE	Travis Kelce	31.90	Travis Kelce	31.90
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	7.00	Randall Cobb	7.00
W/R/T	Chris Thompson	22.30	Tyrell Williams	7.80
K	Josh Lambo	6.00	Josh Lambo	6.00
DEF	Cowboys	12.00	Cowboys	12.00

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 31.90 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Patrick Mahomes scored 40.84; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 11 – 17, 2018

Martin

137.35

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Josh

105.17

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.50 points left. Optimal 152.85 vs. actual 137.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	35.50	Kirk Cousins	35.50
WR	Jarvis Landry	11.90	Jarvis Landry	11.90
WR	Devin Funchess	14.70	Devin Funchess	14.70
RB	Christian McCaffrey	29.90	Christian McCaffrey	29.90
RB	Dalvin Cook	12.00	Dalvin Cook	12.00
TE	Zach Ertz	20.40	Zach Ertz	20.40
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	3.70	Calvin Ridley	17.70
W/R/T	David Njoku	6.00	Nyheim Miller-Hines	7.50
K	Greg Zuerlein	0.00	Greg Zuerlein	0.00
DEF	Texans	3.25	Texans	3.25

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 35.50 points (25.8% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.44 points left. Optimal 124.61 vs. actual 105.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	22.74	Philip Rivers	22.74
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	9.16	John Brown	19.20
WR	Corey Davis	10.50	Corey Davis	10.50
RB	Dion Lewis	5.30	Joe Mixon	9.70
RB	Joe Mixon	9.70	Austin Ekeler	12.80
TE	Trey Burton	12.20	Trey Burton	12.20
W/R/T	Jay Ajayi	9.70	Eric Ebron	11.60
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	12.30	Cooper Kupp	12.30
K	Justin Tucker	7.00	Justin Tucker	7.00
DEF	Jaguars	6.57	Jaguars	6.57

Carried by One Guy: Philip Rivers, 22.74 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kirk Cousins scored 35.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 11 – 17, 2018

Adam

128.68

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Fischer

128.01

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.50 points left. Optimal 144.18 vs. actual 128.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	16.36	Tom Brady	16.36
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	25.00	DeAndre Hopkins	25.00
WR	Keenan Allen	13.20	Kenny Golladay	20.90
RB	Marshawn Lynch	14.80	Alfred Morris	10.00
RB	Rex Burkhead	2.20	Marshawn Lynch	14.80
TE	Ricky Seals-Jones	5.70	Ricky Seals-Jones	5.70
W/R/T	Golden Tate	20.80	Golden Tate	20.80
W/R/T	Quincy Enunwa	16.20	Quincy Enunwa	16.20
K	Adam Vinatieri	3.00	Adam Vinatieri	3.00
DEF	Chargers	11.42	Chargers	11.42

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 25.00 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.76 points left. Optimal 141.77 vs. actual 128.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Alex Smith	13.08	Jimmy Garoppolo	16.64
WR	Kenny Stills	3.70	Kenny Stills	3.70
WR	Adam Thielen	33.10	Adam Thielen	33.10
RB	Theo Riddick	13.70	Theo Riddick	13.70
RB	Duke Johnson	3.00	Javorius Allen	15.40
TE	O.J. Howard	18.60	O.J. Howard	18.60
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	18.30	Allen Robinson	18.30
W/R/T	Javorius Allen	15.40	Will Dissly	13.20
K	Jake Elliott	3.00	Jake Elliott	3.00
DEF	Eagles	6.13	Eagles	6.13

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 33.10 points (25.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DeAndre Hopkins scored 25.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 11 – 17, 2018

Kev

120.20

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

134.22

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.26 points left. Optimal 129.46 vs. actual 120.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	14.74	Russell Wilson	14.74
WR	Antonio Brown	15.70	Antonio Brown	15.70
WR	Mike Evans	22.30	Mike Evans	22.30
RB	Adrian Peterson	8.00	Giovani Bernard	8.42
RB	Royce Freeman	8.80	Royce Freeman	8.80
TE	Jordan Reed	9.50	Jordan Reed	9.50
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	17.28	Tyler Lockett	17.28
W/R/T	Tarik Cohen	4.66	DJ Moore	13.50
K	Robbie Gould	14.00	Robbie Gould	14.00
DEF	Commanders	5.22	Commanders	5.22

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 22.30 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ben Roethlisberger scored 40.98; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.16 points left. Optimal 156.38 vs. actual 134.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	40.98	Ben Roethlisberger	40.98
WR	Sammy Watkins	21.10	Sammy Watkins	21.10
WR	Sterling Shepard	5.40	Sterling Shepard	5.40
RB	LeSean McCoy	10.80	Saquon Barkley	24.80
RB	Saquon Barkley	24.80	LeSean McCoy	10.80
TE	Ben Watson	4.90	Ben Watson	4.90
W/R/T	Jordy Nelson	5.14	Phillip Dorsett II	9.40
W/R/T	Phillip Dorsett II	9.40	Will Fuller V	27.30
K	Matt Prater	9.00	Matt Prater	9.00
DEF	Giants	2.70	Giants	2.70

Carried by One Guy: Ben Roethlisberger, 40.98 points (30.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 11 – 17, 2018

Joe Shore

177.11

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

158.27

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 177.11 vs. actual 177.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	20.36	Jared Goff	20.36
WR	T.Y. Hilton	21.30	T.Y. Hilton	21.30
WR	Amari Cooper	23.60	Amari Cooper	23.60
RB	Bilal Powell	19.00	Bilal Powell	19.00
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	19.70	Ezekiel Elliott	19.70
TE	Jared Cook	8.90	Jared Cook	8.90
W/R/T	Robert Woods	14.10	Robert Woods	14.10
W/R/T	Keelan Cole Sr.	26.60	Keelan Cole Sr.	26.60
K	Ryan Succop	9.00	Ryan Succop	9.00
DEF	Rams	14.55	Rams	14.55

Carried by One Guy: Keelan Cole Sr., 26.60 points (15.0% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.80 points left. Optimal 168.07 vs. actual 158.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	29.60	Cam Newton	29.60
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	5.80	Emmanuel Sanders	13.60
WR	Tyreek Hill	20.00	Tyreek Hill	20.00
RB	Todd Gurley	32.30	Todd Gurley	32.30
RB	James Conner	19.50	James Conner	19.50
TE	Jack Doyle	4.00	George Kittle	4.20
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	13.60	James White	15.40
W/R/T	Nelson Agholor	23.00	Nelson Agholor	23.00
K	Matt Bryant	8.00	Matt Bryant	8.00
DEF	Patriots	2.47	Patriots	2.47

Carried by One Guy: Todd Gurley, 32.30 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Keelan Cole Sr. scored 26.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 11 – 17, 2018

Krajcik

104.49

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Niz

154.32

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 104.49 vs. actual 104.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	16.04	Aaron Rodgers	16.04
WR	Brandon Marshall	8.40	Julio Jones	11.40
WR	Julio Jones	11.40	Brandon Marshall	8.40
RB	Kerryon Johnson	11.60	Kerryon Johnson	11.60
RB	Jordan Wilkins	8.40	Jordan Wilkins	8.40
TE	Rob Gronkowski	3.50	Rob Gronkowski	3.50
W/R/T	Kelvin Benjamin	9.90	Kelvin Benjamin	9.90
W/R/T	Matt Breida	26.90	Matt Breida	26.90
K	Stephen Gostkowski	8.00	Stephen Gostkowski	8.00
DEF	Panthers	0.35	Panthers	0.35

Carried by One Guy: Matt Breida, 26.90 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.62 points left. Optimal 159.94 vs. actual 154.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	17.62	Drew Brees	17.62
WR	Stefon Diggs	37.90	Donte Moncrief	13.40
WR	Mike Williams	10.70	Stefon Diggs	37.90
RB	Alex Collins	12.00	Alex Collins	12.00
RB	Alvin Kamara	17.90	Alvin Kamara	17.90
TE	Kyle Rudolph	14.20	Kyle Rudolph	14.20
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	16.60	Corey Grant	13.02
W/R/T	Jamaal Williams	10.10	Chris Godwin Jr.	16.60
K	Mason Crosby	19.00	Mason Crosby	19.00
DEF	Ravens	-1.70	Ravens	-1.70

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 37.90 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 11 – 17, 2018

Miller

138.18

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Nevans

172.73

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.06 points left. Optimal 152.24 vs. actual 138.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	11.36	Andrew Luck	11.36
WR	Davante Adams	20.40	Chris Hogan	19.20
WR	Jamison Crowder	5.70	Davante Adams	20.40
RB	Tevin Coleman	18.50	Tevin Coleman	18.50
RB	Kareem Hunt	15.00	Kareem Hunt	15.00
TE	Tyler Eifert	4.30	Tyler Eifert	4.30
W/R/T	Chris Hogan	19.20	Kenyan Drake	17.00
W/R/T	Kenyan Drake	17.00	Corey Clement	19.76
K	Wil Lutz	8.00	Wil Lutz	8.00
DEF	Bears	18.72	Bears	18.72

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 20.40 points (14.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.90 points left. Optimal 173.63 vs. actual 172.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	24.80	Deshaun Watson	24.80
WR	A.J. Green	29.90	A.J. Green	29.90
WR	Brandin Cooks	24.90	Brandin Cooks	24.90
RB	LeGarrette Blount	4.50	Isaiah Crowell	5.90
RB	Isaiah Crowell	5.90	Frank Gore	5.40
TE	Jimmy Graham	15.50	Jimmy Graham	15.50
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	25.12	JuJu Smith-Schuster	33.10
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	33.10	DeSean Jackson	25.12
K	Daniel Carlson	3.00	Daniel Carlson	3.00
DEF	Broncos	6.01	Broncos	6.01

Carried by One Guy: JuJu Smith-Schuster, 33.10 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–0	1.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	0–2	0.692	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Demich	0–2	1.231	-3.0	-0.231	0 / 2
Krajcik	0–2	0.538	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Joe Shore	2–0	1.077	+5.5	+0.423	1 / 0
Kev	1–1	0.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	1–1	0.769	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Martin	1–1	0.769	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Josh	1–1	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–2	0.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	1–1	0.385	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Horgan	1–1	1.769	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1
Niz	2–0	1.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Nevans	2–0	1.308	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0

2018 week 2 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Nevans lineup

Cumulative totals through week 2