2018 week 15 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 11 – 17, 2018

Demich

124.64

Josh

59.42

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.96 points left. Optimal 142.60 vs. actual 124.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	16.74	Mitchell Trubisky	19.00
WR	Michael Crabtree	0.00	Tyrell Williams	13.10
WR	Demaryius Thomas	11.90	Antonio Callaway	14.50
RB	David Johnson	19.10	David Johnson	19.10
RB	Marlon Mack	27.90	Marlon Mack	27.90
TE	Travis Kelce	13.10	Travis Kelce	13.10
W/R/T	Jordan Howard	14.50	Jordan Howard	14.50
W/R/T	Josh Reynolds	12.00	Josh Reynolds	12.00
K	Cody Parkey	5.00	Cody Parkey	5.00
DEF	Bills	4.40	Bills	4.40

Carried by One Guy: Marlon Mack, 27.90 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 33.04 points left. Optimal 92.46 vs. actual 59.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	4.28	Philip Rivers	20.52
WR	Keenan Allen	0.00	John Brown	1.90
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	0.00	DJ Moore	3.40
RB	Joe Mixon	29.00	Joe Mixon	29.00
RB	Sony Michel	5.90	Sony Michel	5.90
TE	Eric Ebron	1.80	Eric Ebron	1.80
W/R/T	Austin Ekeler	0.00	Latavius Murray	12.80
W/R/T	DJ Moore	3.40	T.J. Yeldon	2.10
K	Justin Tucker	7.00	Justin Tucker	7.00
DEF	Chiefs	8.04	Chiefs	8.04

Carried by One Guy: Joe Mixon, 29.00 points (48.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Consolation

Dec 11 – 17, 2018

Kev

94.95

Big Hut

103.53

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.40 points left. Optimal 110.35 vs. actual 94.95.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	18.98	Russell Wilson	18.98
WR	Antonio Brown	14.90	Antonio Brown	14.90
WR	Mike Evans	18.10	Mike Evans	18.10
RB	Chris Thompson	2.30	Tarik Cohen	15.56
RB	Tarik Cohen	15.56	Adrian Peterson	9.10
TE	Jordan Reed	0.00	Jordan Reed	0.00
W/R/T	Bruce Ellington	0.00	Tyler Lockett	7.82
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	7.82	Jamison Crowder	8.60
K	Adam Vinatieri	12.00	Adam Vinatieri	12.00
DEF	Seahawks	5.29	Seahawks	5.29

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 18.98 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Derrick Henry scored 32.24; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.44 points left. Optimal 103.97 vs. actual 103.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	12.66	Ben Roethlisberger	13.10
WR	Amari Cooper	8.30	Amari Cooper	8.30
WR	Sterling Shepard	5.70	Sterling Shepard	5.70
RB	Saquon Barkley	9.60	Saquon Barkley	9.60
RB	Nick Chubb	12.00	Nick Chubb	12.00
TE	C.J. Uzomah	3.70	C.J. Uzomah	3.70
W/R/T	Seth Roberts	5.70	Seth Roberts	5.70
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	32.24	Derrick Henry	32.24
K	Matt Prater	1.00	Matt Prater	1.00
DEF	Saints	12.63	Saints	12.63

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 32.24 points (31.1% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 11 – 17, 2018

Adam

106.37

Nevans

88.15

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.66 points left. Optimal 116.03 vs. actual 106.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	13.16	Tom Brady	13.16
WR	Adam Humphries	6.54	Golden Tate	9.30
WR	Kenny Golladay	23.60	Kenny Golladay	23.60
RB	Dion Lewis	7.40	Dion Lewis	7.40
RB	Theo Riddick	7.60	Theo Riddick	7.60
TE	Vance McDonald	9.30	Vance McDonald	9.30
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	6.70	Trey Burton	13.60
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	13.80	Tyler Boyd	13.80
K	Chris Boswell	6.00	Chris Boswell	6.00
DEF	Panthers	12.27	Panthers	12.27

Carried by One Guy: Kenny Golladay, 23.60 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.80 points left. Optimal 98.95 vs. actual 88.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	22.36	Deshaun Watson	22.36
WR	Brandin Cooks	11.90	Brandin Cooks	11.90
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	8.00	JuJu Smith-Schuster	8.00
RB	Isaiah Crowell	0.00	Duke Johnson	9.30
RB	Duke Johnson	9.30	Leonard Fournette	9.40
TE	Jimmy Graham	6.20	Jimmy Graham	6.20
W/R/T	A.J. Green	0.00	Mohamed Sanu	7.10
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	7.10	Frank Gore	1.40
K	Jake Elliott	15.00	Jake Elliott	15.00
DEF	Eagles	8.29	Eagles	8.29

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 22.36 points (25.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kenny Golladay scored 23.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 11 – 17, 2018

j-mart

89.17

Miller

134.16

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.10 points left. Optimal 105.27 vs. actual 89.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	18.02	Patrick Mahomes	18.02
WR	Michael Thomas	11.90	Michael Thomas	11.90
WR	Curtis Samuel	3.50	Curtis Samuel	3.50
RB	Lamar Miller	0.80	Peyton Barber	16.90
RB	Keith Ford	6.30	Keith Ford	6.30
TE	Ian Thomas	3.40	Ian Thomas	3.40
W/R/T	Taylor Gabriel	6.30	Taylor Gabriel	6.30
W/R/T	Dede Westbrook	14.78	Dede Westbrook	14.78
K	Michael Badgley	3.00	Michael Badgley	3.00
DEF	Falcons	21.17	Falcons	21.17

Carried by One Guy: Falcons, 21.17 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.28 points left. Optimal 150.44 vs. actual 134.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	9.68	Josh Allen	19.76
WR	Davante Adams	23.90	Davante Adams	23.90
WR	Dante Pettis	13.30	Dante Pettis	13.30
RB	Kenyan Drake	7.30	Tevin Coleman	22.50
RB	Phillip Lindsay	8.40	Nyheim Miller-Hines	10.40
TE	Jaylen Samuels	21.20	Jaylen Samuels	21.20
W/R/T	Tevin Coleman	22.50	Tim Patrick	11.50
W/R/T	DaeSean Hamilton	11.60	DaeSean Hamilton	11.60
K	Wil Lutz	6.00	Wil Lutz	6.00
DEF	Bears	10.28	Bears	10.28

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 23.90 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 11 – 17, 2018

Joe Shore

124.99

Horgan

150.74

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.00 points left. Optimal 132.99 vs. actual 124.99.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	25.04	Matt Ryan	25.04
WR	Robert Woods	16.30	Robert Woods	16.30
WR	Allen Robinson	8.40	Allen Robinson	8.40
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	19.80	Ezekiel Elliott	19.80
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	0.80	Josh Adams	8.80
TE	Jared Cook	4.30	Jared Cook	4.30
W/R/T	Mark Ingram II	9.40	Mark Ingram II	9.40
W/R/T	T.Y. Hilton	13.50	T.Y. Hilton	13.50
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	22.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	22.00
DEF	Texans	5.45	Texans	5.45

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 25.04 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Todd Gurley scored 34.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.05 points left. Optimal 160.79 vs. actual 150.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	4.74	Cam Newton	4.74
WR	Tyreek Hill	8.10	Courtland Sutton	9.20
WR	Courtland Sutton	9.20	Larry Fitzgerald	15.20
RB	James White	8.70	James White	8.70
RB	Todd Gurley	34.40	Todd Gurley	34.40
TE	George Kittle	8.10	George Kittle	8.10
W/R/T	Damien Williams	30.30	Damien Williams	30.30
W/R/T	Chris Carson	28.80	Chris Carson	28.80
K	Stephen Gostkowski	4.00	Stephen Gostkowski	4.00
DEF	Vikings	14.40	Titans	17.35

Carried by One Guy: Todd Gurley, 34.40 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 11 – 17, 2018

Martin

164.09

Niz

152.34

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.10 points left. Optimal 166.19 vs. actual 164.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	15.30	Kirk Cousins	15.30
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	41.00	DeAndre Hopkins	41.00
WR	Calvin Ridley	9.20	Calvin Ridley	9.20
RB	Christian McCaffrey	26.00	Christian McCaffrey	26.00
RB	Dalvin Cook	31.30	Dalvin Cook	31.30
TE	Zach Ertz	5.20	David Njoku	6.00
W/R/T	Kenneth Dixon	6.00	Rex Burkhead	7.30
W/R/T	David Njoku	6.00	Kenneth Dixon	6.00
K	Greg Zuerlein	12.00	Greg Zuerlein	12.00
DEF	Jaguars	12.09	Jaguars	12.09

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 41.00 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.80 points left. Optimal 167.14 vs. actual 152.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	5.92	Drew Brees	5.92
WR	Stefon Diggs	15.80	Stefon Diggs	15.80
WR	Mike Williams	36.50	Mike Williams	36.50
RB	Alvin Kamara	24.30	Alvin Kamara	24.30
RB	Gus Edwards	18.40	Gus Edwards	18.40
TE	Evan Engram	15.50	Evan Engram	15.50
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	16.00	Chris Hogan	14.80
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	0.00	Julian Edelman	16.00
K	Mason Crosby	12.00	Mason Crosby	12.00
DEF	Ravens	7.92	Ravens	7.92

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Mike Williams, 36.50 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DeAndre Hopkins scored 41.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

2018 week 15 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Consolation

Kev lineup

Big Hut lineup

Consolation

Adam lineup

Nevans lineup

Playoff

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Playoff

Joe Shore lineup

Horgan lineup

Playoff

Martin lineup

Niz lineup