2018 week 10 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 6 – 12, 2018

j-mart

119.19

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

149.34

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.30 points left. Optimal 145.49 vs. actual 119.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	20.06	Patrick Mahomes	20.06
WR	Taylor Gabriel	0.00	Marvin Jones Jr.	8.50
WR	Michael Thomas	27.00	Michael Thomas	27.00
RB	Melvin Gordon III	27.50	Melvin Gordon III	27.50
RB	Peyton Barber	7.60	Peyton Barber	7.60
TE	Ben Watson	1.10	Evan Engram	8.60
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	8.50	Dede Westbrook	9.32
W/R/T	Dede Westbrook	9.32	Rashaad Penny	18.80
K	Robbie Gould	13.00	Robbie Gould	13.00
DEF	Giants	5.11	Giants	5.11

Carried by One Guy: Melvin Gordon III, 27.50 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Nick Chubb scored 37.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.60 points left. Optimal 181.94 vs. actual 149.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	23.02	Ben Roethlisberger	37.82
WR	Amari Cooper	13.50	Amari Cooper	13.50
WR	Sterling Shepard	11.60	Sterling Shepard	11.60
RB	Saquon Barkley	14.00	Saquon Barkley	14.00
RB	Nick Chubb	37.90	Nick Chubb	37.90
TE	C.J. Uzomah	5.30	C.J. Uzomah	5.30
W/R/T	Jordy Nelson	0.00	Derrick Henry	17.80
W/R/T	LeSean McCoy	26.80	LeSean McCoy	26.80
K	Matt Prater	6.00	Matt Prater	6.00
DEF	Chiefs	11.22	Chiefs	11.22

Carried by One Guy: Nick Chubb, 37.90 points (25.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 6 – 12, 2018

Demich

119.34

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Josh

125.08

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.00 points left. Optimal 125.34 vs. actual 119.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Mitchell Trubisky	38.00	Mitchell Trubisky	38.00
WR	Tyrell Williams	8.60	DeVante Parker	9.30
WR	Equanimeous St. Brown	2.30	Tyrell Williams	8.60
RB	David Johnson	37.30	David Johnson	37.30
RB	Marlon Mack	7.80	Marlon Mack	7.80
TE	Travis Kelce	10.60	Travis Kelce	10.60
W/R/T	DeVante Parker	9.30	Spencer Ware	8.30
W/R/T	Jordan Howard	4.20	Jordan Howard	4.20
K	Cody Parkey	0.00	Cody Parkey	0.00
DEF	49ers	1.24	49ers	1.24

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Mitchell Trubisky, 38.00 points (31.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Eric Ebron scored 28.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.80 points left. Optimal 137.88 vs. actual 125.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	15.02	Philip Rivers	15.02
WR	Keenan Allen	17.70	Keenan Allen	17.70
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	23.30	Odell Beckham Jr.	23.30
RB	Joe Mixon	10.50	T.J. Yeldon	11.30
RB	Sony Michel	3.10	Joe Mixon	10.50
TE	Eric Ebron	28.10	Eric Ebron	28.10
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	8.90	Cooper Kupp	8.90
W/R/T	Austin Ekeler	1.90	DJ Moore	6.50
K	Adam Vinatieri	3.00	Adam Vinatieri	3.00
DEF	Chargers	13.56	Chargers	13.56

Carried by One Guy: Eric Ebron, 28.10 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 6 – 12, 2018

Krajcik

153.25

Rank 3; -4.5 luck points

Martin

154.74

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.20 points left. Optimal 176.45 vs. actual 153.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	18.06	Aaron Rodgers	18.06
WR	Danny Amendola	14.20	Julio Jones	25.70
WR	Julio Jones	25.70	Danny Amendola	14.20
RB	Jalen Richard	10.90	Mike Davis	18.00
RB	Matt Breida	30.20	Matt Breida	30.20
TE	Ricky Seals-Jones	10.10	Ricky Seals-Jones	10.10
W/R/T	Alshon Jeffery	8.80	Josh Gordon	12.10
W/R/T	Josh Gordon	12.10	Kerryon Johnson	24.90
K	Stephen Gostkowski	6.00	Stephen Gostkowski	6.00
DEF	Commanders	17.19	Commanders	17.19

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Matt Breida, 30.20 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Zach Ertz scored 42.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.10 points left. Optimal 163.84 vs. actual 154.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	19.52	Eli Manning	19.52
WR	Devin Funchess	6.20	Devin Funchess	6.20
WR	Calvin Ridley	7.00	Calvin Ridley	7.00
RB	Christian McCaffrey	36.80	Christian McCaffrey	36.80
RB	Ito Smith	6.60	Ito Smith	6.60
TE	Zach Ertz	42.50	Zach Ertz	42.50
W/R/T	David Njoku	2.80	John Ross	11.90
W/R/T	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	10.40	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	10.40
K	Greg Zuerlein	11.00	Greg Zuerlein	11.00
DEF	Bills	11.92	Bills	11.92

Carried by One Guy: Zach Ertz, 42.50 points (27.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 6 – 12, 2018

Joe Shore

202.93

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Adam

87.83

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.60 points left. Optimal 203.53 vs. actual 202.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	22.50	Carson Wentz	23.10
WR	T.Y. Hilton	10.70	T.Y. Hilton	10.70
WR	Robert Woods	14.60	Robert Woods	14.60
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	38.70	Ezekiel Elliott	38.70
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	34.20	Aaron Jones Sr.	34.20
TE	Jared Cook	9.20	Jared Cook	9.20
W/R/T	Mark Ingram II	27.20	Mark Ingram II	27.20
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	33.30	Allen Robinson	33.30
K	Michael Badgley	8.00	Michael Badgley	8.00
DEF	Rams	4.53	Rams	4.53

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 38.70 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 42.42 points left. Optimal 130.25 vs. actual 87.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	11.76	Tom Brady	11.76
WR	Golden Tate	4.12	Tyler Boyd	9.50
WR	Jarvis Landry	4.36	Corey Davis	27.50
RB	Dion Lewis	8.80	Doug Martin	12.20
RB	Wendell Smallwood	6.40	Theo Riddick	12.00
TE	Trey Burton	10.00	Trey Burton	10.00
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	9.50	Vance McDonald	14.40
W/R/T	Kenny Golladay	19.80	Kenny Golladay	19.80
K	Chris Boswell	12.00	Chris Boswell	12.00
DEF	Jaguars	1.09	Jaguars	1.09

Carried by One Guy: Kenny Golladay, 19.80 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 6 – 12, 2018

Miller

128.37

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Fischer

88.17

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.24 points left. Optimal 130.61 vs. actual 128.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	21.20	Andrew Luck	21.20
WR	Davante Adams	21.70	Davante Adams	21.70
WR	Christian Kirk	2.96	Quincy Enunwa	5.80
RB	Tevin Coleman	9.30	Tevin Coleman	9.30
RB	Kareem Hunt	11.60	Kareem Hunt	11.60
TE	Austin Hooper	21.60	Austin Hooper	21.60
W/R/T	Quincy Enunwa	5.80	Kenyan Drake	5.80
W/R/T	Kenyan Drake	5.80	Nyheim Miller-Hines	5.20
K	Wil Lutz	16.00	Wil Lutz	16.00
DEF	Bears	12.41	Bears	12.41

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 21.70 points (16.9% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 88.17 vs. actual 88.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	22.64	Baker Mayfield	22.64
WR	Doug Baldwin	8.90	Doug Baldwin	8.90
WR	Anthony Miller	25.20	Anthony Miller	25.20
RB	Elijah McGuire	8.70	Elijah McGuire	8.70
RB	Corey Clement	3.66	Corey Clement	3.66
TE	O.J. Howard	2.50	O.J. Howard	2.50
W/R/T	Greg Olsen	8.00	Tre'Quan Smith	0.00
W/R/T	Tre'Quan Smith	0.00	Greg Olsen	8.00
K	Dustin Hopkins	11.00	Dustin Hopkins	11.00
DEF	Jets	-2.43	Jets	-2.43

Carried by One Guy: Anthony Miller, 25.20 points (27.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 6 – 12, 2018

Horgan

141.26

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Niz

123.21

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.70 points left. Optimal 146.96 vs. actual 141.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	14.72	Cam Newton	14.72
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	11.00	Tyreek Hill	34.70
WR	Tyreek Hill	34.70	Larry Fitzgerald	11.00
RB	James White	7.60	Todd Gurley	27.00
RB	James Conner	14.30	James Conner	14.30
TE	George Kittle	17.30	George Kittle	17.30
W/R/T	Todd Gurley	27.00	Nelson Agholor	13.30
W/R/T	Maurice Harris	10.60	Maurice Harris	10.60
K	Graham Gano	3.00	Graham Gano	3.00
DEF	Patriots	1.04	Patriots	1.04

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 34.70 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.80 points left. Optimal 142.01 vs. actual 123.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	28.90	Drew Brees	28.90
WR	Cole Beasley	7.70	Cole Beasley	7.70
WR	Mike Williams	0.00	Donte Moncrief	18.80
RB	Alvin Kamara	26.24	Alvin Kamara	26.24
RB	Jamaal Williams	0.30	Jamaal Williams	0.30
TE	Chris Herndon	6.40	Chris Herndon	6.40
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	22.24	Chris Godwin Jr.	19.30
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	19.30	Julian Edelman	22.24
K	Mason Crosby	7.00	Mason Crosby	7.00
DEF	Colts	5.13	Colts	5.13

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 28.90 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyreek Hill scored 34.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 6 – 12, 2018

Kev

144.93

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

133.36

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 144.93 vs. actual 144.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	26.24	Russell Wilson	26.24
WR	Antonio Brown	21.60	Antonio Brown	21.60
WR	Mike Evans	8.10	Mike Evans	8.10
RB	Adrian Peterson	8.90	Tarik Cohen	16.76
RB	Tarik Cohen	16.76	Adrian Peterson	8.90
TE	Jordan Reed	9.10	Jordan Reed	9.10
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	20.10	Tyler Lockett	20.10
W/R/T	Josh Doctson	14.60	Josh Doctson	14.60
K	Giorgio Tavecchio	5.00	Giorgio Tavecchio	5.00
DEF	Packers	14.53	Packers	14.53

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 26.24 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.80 points left. Optimal 143.16 vs. actual 133.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	6.92	Andy Dalton	6.92
WR	Brandin Cooks	28.90	Brandin Cooks	28.90
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	19.30	JuJu Smith-Schuster	19.30
RB	Duke Johnson	14.60	Duke Johnson	14.60
RB	Leonard Fournette	27.90	Leonard Fournette	27.90
TE	Jimmy Graham	2.40	Jack Doyle	6.60
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	11.70	Frank Gore	12.20
W/R/T	Jack Doyle	6.60	DeSean Jackson	11.70
K	Harrison Butker	10.00	Harrison Butker	10.00
DEF	Eagles	5.04	Eagles	5.04

Carried by One Guy: Brandin Cooks, 28.90 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Russell Wilson scored 26.24; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–4	5.615	+3.0	+0.231	1 / 1
Miller	8–2	6.462	+0.5	+0.038	2 / 1
Demich	4–6	5.231	-4.5	-0.346	0 / 3
Krajcik	1–9	3.846	-6.5	-0.500	0 / 3
Joe Shore	7–3	4.769	+15.5	+1.192	4 / 1
Kev	5–5	5.385	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Adam	3–7	2.615	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Martin	7–3	6.308	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Josh	5–5	5.154	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Fischer	0–10	1.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	5–5	4.154	+3.0	+0.231	3 / 1
Horgan	8–2	8.462	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	6–4	5.231	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Nevans	5–5	5.231	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2

2018 week 10 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Nevans lineup

Cumulative totals through week 10