2018 week 4 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 25 – Oct 1, 2018

j-mart

119.98

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

204.93

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 119.98 vs. actual 119.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	24.86	Patrick Mahomes	24.86
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	8.60	Marvin Jones Jr.	8.60
WR	Michael Thomas	8.70	Michael Thomas	8.70
RB	Lamar Miller	4.90	Lamar Miller	4.90
RB	Melvin Gordon III	32.90	Melvin Gordon III	32.90
TE	Ben Watson	3.30	Ben Watson	3.30
W/R/T	Pierre Garcon	9.20	Dede Westbrook	23.52
W/R/T	Dede Westbrook	23.52	Pierre Garcon	9.20
K	Harrison Butker	8.00	Harrison Butker	8.00
DEF	Vikings	-4.00	Vikings	-4.00

Carried by One Guy: Melvin Gordon III, 32.90 points (26.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.14 points left. Optimal 223.07 vs. actual 204.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	31.26	Jared Goff	41.30
WR	T.Y. Hilton	17.50	T.Y. Hilton	17.50
WR	Amari Cooper	28.80	Amari Cooper	28.80
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	36.00	Ezekiel Elliott	36.00
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	15.20	Aaron Jones Sr.	15.20
TE	Jared Cook	33.00	Jared Cook	33.00
W/R/T	Robert Woods	23.10	Robert Woods	23.10
W/R/T	Keelan Cole Sr.	3.50	Willie Snead IV	11.60
K	Dan Bailey	12.00	Dan Bailey	12.00
DEF	Rams	4.57	Rams	4.57

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 36.00 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 25 – Oct 1, 2018

Miller

156.48

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

122.35

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.94 points left. Optimal 174.42 vs. actual 156.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	37.66	Andrew Luck	37.66
WR	Chris Hogan	3.50	Davante Adams	16.10
WR	Davante Adams	16.10	Christian Kirk	7.50
RB	Tevin Coleman	10.70	Tevin Coleman	10.70
RB	Kareem Hunt	28.50	Kareem Hunt	28.50
TE	Tyler Eifert	13.80	Tyler Eifert	13.80
W/R/T	Carlos Hyde	14.20	Carlos Hyde	14.20
W/R/T	Kenyan Drake	2.60	Phillip Lindsay	16.54
K	Wil Lutz	15.00	Wil Lutz	15.00
DEF	Bears	14.42	Bears	14.42

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 37.66 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.10 points left. Optimal 125.45 vs. actual 122.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	15.02	Aaron Rodgers	15.02
WR	Julio Jones	28.30	Julio Jones	28.30
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	4.40	Albert Wilson	6.10
RB	Matt Breida	10.10	Matt Breida	10.10
RB	Kerryon Johnson	12.60	Kerryon Johnson	12.60
TE	Rob Gronkowski	8.40	Rob Gronkowski	8.40
W/R/T	Alshon Jeffery	26.50	Alshon Jeffery	26.50
W/R/T	Josh Gordon	5.20	Jalen Richard	6.60
K	Stephen Gostkowski	7.00	Stephen Gostkowski	7.00
DEF	Steelers	4.83	Steelers	4.83

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 28.30 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Andrew Luck scored 37.66; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 25 – Oct 1, 2018

Josh

202.20

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

99.42

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.50 points left. Optimal 215.70 vs. actual 202.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	21.70	Philip Rivers	21.70
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	14.00	John Brown	22.90
WR	Cooper Kupp	39.28	Cooper Kupp	39.28
RB	Jay Ajayi	11.10	Dion Lewis	15.60
RB	Sony Michel	19.20	Sony Michel	19.20
TE	Trey Burton	16.60	Trey Burton	16.60
W/R/T	John Brown	22.90	T.J. Yeldon	23.00
W/R/T	Corey Davis	33.10	Corey Davis	33.10
K	Justin Tucker	15.00	Justin Tucker	15.00
DEF	Jaguars	9.32	Jaguars	9.32

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 39.28 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.90 points left. Optimal 106.32 vs. actual 99.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	14.70	Eli Manning	14.70
WR	Kenny Stills	7.00	Kenny Stills	7.00
WR	Adam Thielen	29.50	Adam Thielen	29.50
RB	Theo Riddick	6.70	Theo Riddick	6.70
RB	Javorius Allen	6.70	Duke Johnson	13.60
TE	O.J. Howard	0.00	O.J. Howard	0.00
W/R/T	Doug Baldwin	9.10	Doug Baldwin	9.10
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	10.30	Allen Robinson	10.30
K	Jake Elliott	10.00	Jake Elliott	10.00
DEF	Eagles	5.42	Eagles	5.42

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 29.50 points (29.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 25 – Oct 1, 2018

Martin

174.32

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

109.06

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.36 points left. Optimal 175.68 vs. actual 174.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	33.68	Kirk Cousins	33.68
WR	Tyler Boyd	23.00	Tyler Boyd	23.00
WR	Calvin Ridley	21.50	Calvin Ridley	21.50
RB	Dalvin Cook	2.00	Alfred Blue	3.36
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	28.30	Nyheim Miller-Hines	28.30
TE	Zach Ertz	23.20	Zach Ertz	23.20
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	13.40	Jarvis Landry	13.40
W/R/T	David Njoku	10.20	David Njoku	10.20
K	Brandon McManus	13.00	Brandon McManus	13.00
DEF	Seahawks	6.04	Seahawks	6.04

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 33.68 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.36 points left. Optimal 141.42 vs. actual 109.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	14.86	Carson Wentz	22.72
WR	Sammy Watkins	0.00	Will Fuller V	14.90
WR	Will Fuller V	14.90	Sterling Shepard	25.70
RB	LeSean McCoy	6.70	Saquon Barkley	22.00
RB	Saquon Barkley	22.00	LeSean McCoy	6.70
TE	Will Dissly	1.50	Will Dissly	1.50
W/R/T	Jordy Nelson	17.80	Nick Chubb	24.50
W/R/T	Sterling Shepard	25.70	Jordy Nelson	17.80
K	Matt Prater	6.00	Matt Prater	6.00
DEF	Giants	-0.40	Giants	-0.40

Carried by One Guy: Sterling Shepard, 25.70 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 25 – Oct 1, 2018

Adam

173.36

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Horgan

183.57

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.90 points left. Optimal 191.26 vs. actual 173.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	18.96	Tom Brady	18.96
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	34.90	DeAndre Hopkins	34.90
WR	Keenan Allen	13.30	Keenan Allen	13.30
RB	Marshawn Lynch	20.70	Wendell Smallwood	8.40
RB	Alfred Morris	2.80	Marshawn Lynch	20.70
TE	Austin Hooper	2.90	Austin Hooper	2.90
W/R/T	Golden Tate	35.20	Golden Tate	35.20
W/R/T	Kenny Golladay	11.40	Keke Coutee	23.70
K	Adam Vinatieri	10.00	Adam Vinatieri	10.00
DEF	Packers	23.20	Packers	23.20

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Golden Tate, 35.20 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: James White scored 31.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 183.57 vs. actual 183.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	26.78	Andy Dalton	26.78
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	11.30	Emmanuel Sanders	11.30
WR	Tyreek Hill	15.34	Tyreek Hill	15.34
RB	Todd Gurley	25.60	Todd Gurley	25.60
RB	James Conner	9.40	James Conner	9.40
TE	George Kittle	26.50	George Kittle	26.50
W/R/T	James White	31.20	James White	31.20
W/R/T	Geronimo Allison	14.00	Geronimo Allison	14.00
K	Matt Bryant	13.00	Matt Bryant	13.00
DEF	Patriots	10.45	Patriots	10.45

Carried by One Guy: James White, 31.20 points (17.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 25 – Oct 1, 2018

Kev

110.80

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Niz

125.19

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.62 points left. Optimal 134.42 vs. actual 110.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	8.98	Russell Wilson	8.98
WR	Antonio Brown	17.20	Antonio Brown	17.20
WR	Mike Evans	11.90	Mike Evans	11.90
RB	Giovani Bernard	25.60	Giovani Bernard	25.60
RB	Royce Freeman	12.70	Royce Freeman	12.70
TE	Dallas Goedert	3.30	Dallas Goedert	3.30
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	11.08	Tyler Lockett	11.08
W/R/T	Antonio Callaway	9.06	Tarik Cohen	32.68
K	Robbie Gould	8.00	Robbie Gould	8.00
DEF	Browns	2.98	Browns	2.98

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Giovani Bernard, 25.60 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Alvin Kamara scored 43.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.10 points left. Optimal 157.29 vs. actual 125.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	8.58	Drew Brees	8.58
WR	Stefon Diggs	25.30	Donte Moncrief	23.90
WR	Mike Williams	2.50	Stefon Diggs	25.30
RB	Alex Collins	9.50	Alex Collins	9.50
RB	Alvin Kamara	43.10	Alvin Kamara	43.10
TE	Kyle Rudolph	10.70	Kyle Rudolph	10.70
W/R/T	Tavon Austin	0.70	Ryan Grant	11.40
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	4.20	Chris Godwin Jr.	4.20
K	Mason Crosby	13.00	Mason Crosby	13.00
DEF	Ravens	7.61	Ravens	7.61

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 43.10 points (34.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 25 – Oct 1, 2018

Demich

101.03

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

142.46

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.28 points left. Optimal 111.31 vs. actual 101.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	22.78	Matthew Stafford	22.78
WR	Michael Crabtree	5.90	Demaryius Thomas	6.40
WR	Demaryius Thomas	6.40	Michael Crabtree	5.90
RB	David Johnson	18.20	David Johnson	18.20
RB	Jordan Howard	2.50	Jordan Howard	2.50
TE	Travis Kelce	20.80	Travis Kelce	20.80
W/R/T	Tyrell Williams	7.80	Tyrell Williams	7.80
W/R/T	Jakeem Grant	4.42	Taywan Taylor	14.70
K	Ryan Succop	9.00	Ryan Succop	9.00
DEF	Lions	3.23	Lions	3.23

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 22.78 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.40 points left. Optimal 168.86 vs. actual 142.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	33.10	Deshaun Watson	33.10
WR	A.J. Green	17.80	A.J. Green	17.80
WR	Brandin Cooks	27.60	Brandin Cooks	27.60
RB	Isaiah Crowell	1.30	Ty Montgomery II	9.40
RB	Leonard Fournette	4.50	Frank Gore	13.70
TE	Jimmy Graham	11.10	Jimmy Graham	11.10
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	18.24	Mohamed Sanu	19.10
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	10.00	DeSean Jackson	18.24
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	13.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	13.00
DEF	Chargers	5.82	Chargers	5.82

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 33.10 points (23.2% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–1	2.231	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Miller	2–2	1.769	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Demich	0–4	1.462	-3.0	-0.231	0 / 2
Krajcik	0–4	0.923	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Joe Shore	3–1	2.692	+4.0	+0.308	1 / 1
Kev	2–2	2.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	1–3	1.538	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Martin	3–1	2.308	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Josh	2–2	2.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–4	0.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	2–2	1.385	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Horgan	2–2	3.154	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	4–0	2.923	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Nevans	4–0	2.538	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0

2018 week 4 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Nevans lineup

Cumulative totals through week 4