2018 week 12 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 20 – 26, 2018

j-mart

117.12

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Niz

134.86

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.82 points left. Optimal 138.94 vs. actual 117.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	20.22	Lamar Jackson	20.22
WR	Taylor Gabriel	11.90	Taylor Gabriel	11.90
WR	Michael Thomas	7.80	Michael Thomas	7.80
RB	Lamar Miller	25.70	Lamar Miller	25.70
RB	Melvin Gordon III	20.60	Melvin Gordon III	20.60
TE	Evan Engram	0.00	Evan Engram	0.00
W/R/T	Peyton Barber	14.30	Peyton Barber	14.30
W/R/T	Keke Coutee	3.40	Dede Westbrook	18.36
K	Ryan Succop	5.00	Ryan Succop	5.00
DEF	Vikings	8.20	Broncos	15.06

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Miller, 25.70 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Stefon Diggs scored 22.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.00 points left. Optimal 151.86 vs. actual 134.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	20.44	Drew Brees	20.44
WR	Cole Beasley	1.50	Stefon Diggs	22.90
WR	Stefon Diggs	22.90	Mike Williams	18.50
RB	Alvin Kamara	10.94	Alvin Kamara	10.94
RB	Gus Edwards	13.80	Gus Edwards	13.80
TE	Kyle Rudolph	13.30	Kyle Rudolph	13.30
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	18.40	Chris Godwin Jr.	8.20
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	8.20	Julian Edelman	18.40
K	Mason Crosby	5.00	Mason Crosby	5.00
DEF	Ravens	20.38	Ravens	20.38

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 22.90 points (17.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 20 – 26, 2018

Joe Shore

151.35

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Josh

192.15

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 151.35 vs. actual 151.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	22.68	Matt Ryan	22.68
WR	T.Y. Hilton	21.50	T.Y. Hilton	21.50
WR	Allen Robinson	5.70	Allen Robinson	5.70
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	27.30	Ezekiel Elliott	27.30
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	18.30	Aaron Jones Sr.	18.30
TE	Jared Cook	11.20	Jared Cook	11.20
W/R/T	Mark Ingram II	8.60	Mark Ingram II	8.60
W/R/T	Josh Adams	16.40	Josh Adams	16.40
K	Michael Badgley	9.00	Michael Badgley	9.00
DEF	Texans	10.67	Texans	10.67

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 27.30 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 192.15 vs. actual 192.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	24.88	Jameis Winston	24.88
WR	Keenan Allen	20.20	Keenan Allen	20.20
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	13.82	Odell Beckham Jr.	13.82
RB	Joe Mixon	22.50	Joe Mixon	22.50
RB	Sony Michel	24.50	Sony Michel	24.50
TE	Eric Ebron	21.50	Eric Ebron	21.50
W/R/T	Austin Ekeler	26.30	Austin Ekeler	26.30
W/R/T	DJ Moore	19.30	DJ Moore	19.30
K	Justin Tucker	10.00	Justin Tucker	10.00
DEF	Chargers	9.15	Chargers	9.15

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 26.30 points (13.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 20 – 26, 2018

Kev

135.03

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Martin

188.23

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.60 points left. Optimal 136.63 vs. actual 135.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	23.96	Russell Wilson	23.96
WR	Antonio Brown	15.70	Antonio Brown	15.70
WR	Mike Evans	19.60	Mike Evans	19.60
RB	Adrian Peterson	6.40	Tarik Cohen	19.82
RB	Tarik Cohen	19.82	Adrian Peterson	6.40
TE	Jordan Reed	13.50	Jordan Reed	13.50
W/R/T	Kenny Stills	1.60	Giovani Bernard	3.20
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	23.50	Tyler Lockett	23.50
K	Adam Vinatieri	10.00	Adam Vinatieri	10.00
DEF	Jaguars	0.95	Jaguars	0.95

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 23.96 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.00 points left. Optimal 209.23 vs. actual 188.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	29.38	Kirk Cousins	29.38
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	12.40	DeAndre Hopkins	12.40
WR	Calvin Ridley	21.30	Calvin Ridley	21.30
RB	Christian McCaffrey	50.70	Christian McCaffrey	50.70
RB	Dalvin Cook	16.60	Dalvin Cook	16.60
TE	Zach Ertz	22.10	Zach Ertz	22.10
W/R/T	David Njoku	17.30	David Njoku	17.30
W/R/T	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1.30	David Moore	22.30
K	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00
DEF	Patriots	8.15	Patriots	8.15

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 50.70 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 20 – 26, 2018

Krajcik

103.96

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

130.67

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.30 points left. Optimal 123.26 vs. actual 103.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	11.92	Aaron Rodgers	11.92
WR	Julio Jones	25.80	Julio Jones	25.80
WR	Josh Gordon	12.00	Josh Gordon	12.00
RB	Jalen Richard	3.60	Kapri Bibbs	12.60
RB	Matt Breida	19.00	Matt Breida	19.00
TE	Rob Gronkowski	14.60	Rob Gronkowski	14.60
W/R/T	Danny Amendola	2.30	Alshon Jeffery	6.90
W/R/T	Alshon Jeffery	6.90	Josh Doctson	12.60
K	Matt Bryant	5.00	Matt Bryant	5.00
DEF	Commanders	2.84	Commanders	2.84

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 25.80 points (24.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Adam Thielen scored 28.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.34 points left. Optimal 144.01 vs. actual 130.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	25.92	Baker Mayfield	25.92
WR	Adam Thielen	28.50	Adam Thielen	28.50
WR	Keith Kirkwood	7.50	Keith Kirkwood	7.50
RB	LeGarrette Blount	23.30	LeGarrette Blount	23.30
RB	Elijah McGuire	3.60	Corey Clement	12.62
TE	Cameron Brate	11.60	Cameron Brate	11.60
W/R/T	Greg Olsen	3.10	Doug Baldwin	8.90
W/R/T	Doug Baldwin	8.90	Anthony Miller	7.42
K	Aldrick Rosas	10.00	Aldrick Rosas	10.00
DEF	Lions	8.25	Lions	8.25

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 28.50 points (21.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 20 – 26, 2018

Demich

105.97

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

159.30

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 105.97 vs. actual 105.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	8.10	Andy Dalton	8.10
WR	Michael Crabtree	11.10	Demaryius Thomas	19.80
WR	Demaryius Thomas	19.80	Michael Crabtree	11.10
RB	David Johnson	9.90	David Johnson	9.90
RB	Marlon Mack	11.60	Marlon Mack	11.60
TE	Chris Herndon	12.70	Chris Herndon	12.70
W/R/T	Jordan Howard	2.50	Jordan Howard	2.50
W/R/T	Antonio Callaway	16.48	Antonio Callaway	16.48
K	Cody Parkey	6.00	Cody Parkey	6.00
DEF	Bills	7.79	Bills	7.79

Carried by One Guy: Demaryius Thomas, 19.80 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.50 points left. Optimal 167.80 vs. actual 159.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	22.28	Ben Roethlisberger	22.28
WR	Amari Cooper	40.00	Amari Cooper	40.00
WR	Sterling Shepard	7.70	Sterling Shepard	7.70
RB	Saquon Barkley	35.20	Saquon Barkley	35.20
RB	Nick Chubb	27.80	Nick Chubb	27.80
TE	C.J. Uzomah	9.90	C.J. Uzomah	9.90
W/R/T	LeSean McCoy	6.30	Seth Roberts	8.50
W/R/T	Marquise Goodwin	0.00	LeSean McCoy	6.30
K	Matt Prater	3.00	Matt Prater	3.00
DEF	Dolphins	7.12	Dolphins	7.12

Carried by One Guy: Amari Cooper, 40.00 points (25.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 20 – 26, 2018

Miller

149.07

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

125.13

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.20 points left. Optimal 155.27 vs. actual 149.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	25.62	Andrew Luck	25.62
WR	Davante Adams	17.90	Davante Adams	17.90
WR	Christian Kirk	8.62	Christian Kirk	8.62
RB	Tevin Coleman	11.30	Tevin Coleman	11.30
RB	Phillip Lindsay	19.00	Phillip Lindsay	19.00
TE	Austin Hooper	8.10	Jonnu Smith	14.30
W/R/T	Quincy Enunwa	11.30	Quincy Enunwa	11.30
W/R/T	Kenyan Drake	26.60	Kenyan Drake	26.60
K	Wil Lutz	6.00	Wil Lutz	6.00
DEF	Bears	14.63	Bears	14.63

Carried by One Guy: Kenyan Drake, 26.60 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 125.13 vs. actual 125.13.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	22.54	Cam Newton	22.54
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	11.00	Emmanuel Sanders	21.60
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	21.60	Larry Fitzgerald	11.00
RB	James White	8.80	James White	8.80
RB	James Conner	11.50	James Conner	11.50
TE	George Kittle	11.80	George Kittle	11.80
W/R/T	Chris Carson	14.30	Chris Carson	14.30
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	2.40	Courtland Sutton	2.40
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	12.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	12.00
DEF	Cowboys	9.19	Cowboys	9.19

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 22.54 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kenyan Drake scored 26.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 20 – 26, 2018

Adam

124.14

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

146.05

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.66 points left. Optimal 149.80 vs. actual 124.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	19.22	Dak Prescott	27.36
WR	Jarvis Landry	6.00	Adam Humphries	17.52
WR	Kenny Golladay	14.00	Kenny Golladay	14.00
RB	Dion Lewis	11.10	Doug Martin	16.20
RB	Theo Riddick	13.00	Theo Riddick	13.00
TE	Trey Burton	4.80	Vance McDonald	5.70
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	21.50	Tyler Boyd	21.50
W/R/T	Corey Davis	23.50	Corey Davis	23.50
K	Chris Boswell	10.08	Chris Boswell	10.08
DEF	Panthers	0.94	Panthers	0.94

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Corey Davis, 23.50 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: JuJu Smith-Schuster scored 39.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.10 points left. Optimal 156.15 vs. actual 146.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	29.40	Deshaun Watson	29.40
WR	DeSean Jackson	5.50	JuJu Smith-Schuster	39.90
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	39.90	DeSean Jackson	5.50
RB	Duke Johnson	4.90	Leonard Fournette	25.80
RB	Leonard Fournette	25.80	Frank Gore	8.70
TE	Jimmy Graham	5.40	Jack Doyle	11.60
W/R/T	Jack Doyle	11.60	Mohamed Sanu	11.70
W/R/T	Isaiah Crowell	9.00	Isaiah Crowell	9.00
K	Jake Elliott	10.00	Jake Elliott	10.00
DEF	Eagles	4.55	Eagles	4.55

Carried by One Guy: JuJu Smith-Schuster, 39.90 points (27.3% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	7–5	6.615	+3.0	+0.231	1 / 1
Miller	10–2	8.077	+0.5	+0.038	2 / 1
Demich	5–7	5.615	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 3
Krajcik	1–11	4.308	-6.5	-0.500	0 / 3
Joe Shore	8–4	6.538	+12.0	+0.923	4 / 2
Kev	6–6	6.692	-3.0	-0.231	1 / 3
Adam	3–9	2.923	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Martin	8–4	7.231	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Josh	7–5	6.692	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Fischer	1–11	2.154	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Big Hut	6–6	5.615	+1.5	+0.115	3 / 2
Horgan	8–4	9.462	-6.5	-0.500	0 / 3
Niz	8–4	6.077	+2.5	+0.192	3 / 0
Nevans	6–6	6.000	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2

2018 week 12 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Nevans lineup

Cumulative totals through week 12