2018 week 7 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 16 – 22, 2018

j-mart

120.98

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Martin

173.25

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.70 points left. Optimal 132.68 vs. actual 120.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	34.82	Patrick Mahomes	34.82
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	5.90	Marvin Jones Jr.	5.90
WR	Taylor Gabriel	5.60	Taylor Gabriel	5.60
RB	Lamar Miller	18.90	Lamar Miller	18.90
RB	Peyton Barber	3.00	Peyton Barber	3.00
TE	Evan Engram	4.60	Ben Watson	16.30
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	19.90	Michael Thomas	19.90
W/R/T	Dede Westbrook	6.12	Dede Westbrook	6.12
K	Harrison Butker	8.00	Harrison Butker	8.00
DEF	Vikings	14.14	Vikings	14.14

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 34.82 points (28.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.60 points left. Optimal 176.85 vs. actual 173.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	17.54	Kirk Cousins	17.54
WR	Jarvis Landry	25.70	Jarvis Landry	25.70
WR	Tyler Boyd	5.70	Calvin Ridley	9.30
RB	Christian McCaffrey	14.00	Christian McCaffrey	14.00
RB	Ito Smith	6.50	Ito Smith	6.50
TE	Zach Ertz	24.80	Zach Ertz	24.80
W/R/T	Devin Funchess	18.20	Devin Funchess	18.20
W/R/T	David Njoku	15.20	David Njoku	15.20
K	Greg Zuerlein	13.00	Greg Zuerlein	13.00
DEF	Broncos	32.61	Broncos	32.61

Carried by One Guy: Broncos, 32.61 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 16 – 22, 2018

Miller

138.49

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Adam

89.96

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.30 points left. Optimal 150.79 vs. actual 138.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	22.74	Andrew Luck	22.74
WR	Jermaine Kearse	0.00	Chris Hogan	12.30
WR	Christian Kirk	9.04	Christian Kirk	9.04
RB	Kenyan Drake	18.70	Kenyan Drake	18.70
RB	Phillip Lindsay	17.82	Phillip Lindsay	17.82
TE	Austin Hooper	7.80	Austin Hooper	7.80
W/R/T	Tevin Coleman	16.20	Tevin Coleman	16.20
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	37.10	Kareem Hunt	37.10
K	Wil Lutz	6.00	Wil Lutz	6.00
DEF	Bears	3.09	Bears	3.09

Carried by One Guy: Kareem Hunt, 37.10 points (26.8% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 89.96 vs. actual 89.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	21.68	Tom Brady	21.68
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	14.00	DeAndre Hopkins	14.00
WR	Keenan Allen	12.20	Keenan Allen	12.20
RB	Latavius Murray	22.30	Latavius Murray	22.30
RB	Wendell Smallwood	5.70	Wendell Smallwood	5.70
TE	Jeff Heuerman	0.00	Jeff Heuerman	0.00
W/R/T	Golden Tate	10.90	Golden Tate	10.90
W/R/T	Kenny Golladay	5.70	Kenny Golladay	5.70
K	Graham Gano	0.00	Graham Gano	0.00
DEF	Bills	-2.52	Bills	-2.52

Carried by One Guy: Latavius Murray, 22.30 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 16 – 22, 2018

Demich

157.16

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Kev

128.10

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 157.16 vs. actual 157.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Mitchell Trubisky	33.42	Mitchell Trubisky	33.42
WR	Michael Crabtree	11.60	Demaryius Thomas	9.20
WR	Demaryius Thomas	9.20	Michael Crabtree	11.60
RB	David Johnson	10.00	David Johnson	10.00
RB	Jordan Howard	11.80	Jordan Howard	11.80
TE	Travis Kelce	14.50	Travis Kelce	14.50
W/R/T	Tyrell Williams	23.80	Tyrell Williams	23.80
W/R/T	Marlon Mack	33.90	Marlon Mack	33.90
K	Ryan Succop	6.00	Ryan Succop	6.00
DEF	Cardinals	2.94	Cardinals	2.94

Carried by One Guy: Marlon Mack, 33.90 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.50 points left. Optimal 128.60 vs. actual 128.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	22.66	Eli Manning	22.66
WR	Mike Evans	19.70	Mike Evans	19.70
WR	Antonio Callaway	2.40	Josh Reynolds	2.90
RB	Adrian Peterson	11.70	Tarik Cohen	22.64
RB	Tarik Cohen	22.64	Adrian Peterson	11.70
TE	Jordan Reed	6.30	Jordan Reed	6.30
W/R/T	Chester Rogers	8.00	Chester Rogers	8.00
W/R/T	Royce Freeman	9.70	Royce Freeman	9.70
K	Aldrick Rosas	6.00	Aldrick Rosas	6.00
DEF	Colts	19.00	Colts	19.00

Carried by One Guy: Eli Manning, 22.66 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Marlon Mack scored 33.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 16 – 22, 2018

Krajcik

109.67

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

119.69

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.90 points left. Optimal 116.57 vs. actual 109.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Blake Bortles	1.44	Blake Bortles	1.44
WR	Julio Jones	19.40	Julio Jones	19.40
WR	Alshon Jeffery	21.80	Alshon Jeffery	21.80
RB	Matt Breida	-0.50	Kerryon Johnson	21.90
RB	Kerryon Johnson	21.90	Jordan Wilkins	6.40
TE	Rob Gronkowski	0.00	Rob Gronkowski	0.00
W/R/T	Josh Gordon	16.00	Josh Gordon	16.00
W/R/T	Albert Wilson	6.60	Albert Wilson	6.60
K	Stephen Gostkowski	7.00	Stephen Gostkowski	7.00
DEF	Commanders	16.03	Commanders	16.03

Carried by One Guy: Kerryon Johnson, 21.90 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Rams scored 24.83; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.70 points left. Optimal 122.39 vs. actual 119.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	21.26	Matt Ryan	21.26
WR	Robert Woods	13.40	Robert Woods	13.40
WR	Willie Snead IV	6.60	Willie Snead IV	6.60
RB	Mark Ingram II	6.20	Mark Ingram II	6.20
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	6.20	Ezekiel Elliott	6.20
TE	C.J. Uzomah	9.30	C.J. Uzomah	9.30
W/R/T	T.Y. Hilton	18.50	T.Y. Hilton	18.50
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	1.40	Keelan Cole Sr.	4.10
K	Dan Bailey	12.00	Dan Bailey	12.00
DEF	Rams	24.83	Rams	24.83

Carried by One Guy: Rams, 24.83 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 16 – 22, 2018

Fischer

101.77

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

188.15

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.30 points left. Optimal 110.07 vs. actual 101.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	20.90	Baker Mayfield	20.90
WR	Kenny Stills	7.50	Kenny Stills	7.50
WR	Adam Thielen	28.00	Adam Thielen	28.00
RB	Bilal Powell	3.50	Javorius Allen	5.40
RB	Javorius Allen	5.40	Raheem Mostert	11.80
TE	Greg Olsen	8.50	Greg Olsen	8.50
W/R/T	O.J. Howard	11.70	O.J. Howard	11.70
W/R/T	Tre'Quan Smith	7.40	Tre'Quan Smith	7.40
K	Jake Elliott	6.00	Jake Elliott	6.00
DEF	Eagles	2.87	Eagles	2.87

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 28.00 points (27.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.56 points left. Optimal 191.71 vs. actual 188.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	22.10	Cam Newton	25.66
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	29.32	Emmanuel Sanders	29.32
WR	Tyreek Hill	21.02	Tyreek Hill	21.02
RB	James White	29.70	James White	29.70
RB	Todd Gurley	30.60	Todd Gurley	30.60
TE	George Kittle	20.80	George Kittle	20.80
W/R/T	Larry Fitzgerald	14.00	Nelson Agholor	8.00
W/R/T	Nelson Agholor	8.00	Larry Fitzgerald	14.00
K	Brett Maher	6.00	Brett Maher	6.00
DEF	Chargers	6.61	Chargers	6.61

Carried by One Guy: Todd Gurley, 30.60 points (16.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 16 – 22, 2018

Big Hut

119.89

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Nevans

114.16

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.80 points left. Optimal 142.69 vs. actual 119.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	16.48	Jared Goff	16.48
WR	Marquise Goodwin	4.40	Will Fuller V	12.80
WR	Sterling Shepard	23.70	Sterling Shepard	23.70
RB	LeSean McCoy	0.10	Derrick Henry	14.50
RB	Saquon Barkley	26.40	Saquon Barkley	26.40
TE	Cameron Brate	3.30	Cameron Brate	3.30
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	11.40	Sammy Watkins	11.40
W/R/T	Nick Chubb	14.00	Nick Chubb	14.00
K	Matt Prater	14.00	Matt Prater	14.00
DEF	Giants	6.11	Giants	6.11

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 26.40 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.20 points left. Optimal 114.36 vs. actual 114.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	10.86	Deshaun Watson	10.86
WR	A.J. Green	20.70	A.J. Green	20.70
WR	Brandin Cooks	17.10	Brandin Cooks	17.10
RB	Isaiah Crowell	6.00	Isaiah Crowell	6.00
RB	Duke Johnson	5.90	Duke Johnson	5.90
TE	Chris Herndon	14.20	Chris Herndon	14.20
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	11.30	Frank Gore	4.30
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	4.10	DeSean Jackson	11.30
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.00
DEF	Texans	14.00	Texans	14.00

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Green, 20.70 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Saquon Barkley scored 26.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 16 – 22, 2018

Josh

146.10

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Niz

102.46

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.70 points left. Optimal 176.80 vs. actual 146.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	22.14	Philip Rivers	22.14
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	30.20	Odell Beckham Jr.	30.20
WR	John Brown	28.40	John Brown	28.40
RB	Joe Mixon	8.10	Dion Lewis	21.50
RB	Sony Michel	2.50	Joe Mixon	8.10
TE	Eric Ebron	6.10	Trey Burton	29.60
W/R/T	Trey Burton	29.60	T.J. Yeldon	17.80
W/R/T	Austin Ekeler	11.80	Austin Ekeler	11.80
K	Justin Tucker	4.00	Justin Tucker	4.00
DEF	Jaguars	3.26	Jaguars	3.26

Carried by One Guy: Odell Beckham Jr., 30.20 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.92 points left. Optimal 108.38 vs. actual 102.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	16.78	Drew Brees	16.78
WR	Stefon Diggs	10.60	Cole Beasley	12.82
WR	Mike Williams	12.80	Mike Williams	12.80
RB	Alex Collins	7.80	Alex Collins	7.80
RB	Alvin Kamara	15.74	Alvin Kamara	15.74
TE	Kyle Rudolph	2.60	Kyle Rudolph	2.60
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	14.66	Donte Moncrief	14.60
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	10.90	Julian Edelman	14.66
K	Jason Myers	7.00	Jason Myers	7.00
DEF	Ravens	3.58	Ravens	3.58

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 16.78 points (16.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–3	3.692	+3.0	+0.231	1 / 1
Miller	5–2	4.231	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Demich	3–4	3.769	-3.0	-0.231	0 / 2
Krajcik	1–6	2.538	-2.0	-0.154	0 / 2
Joe Shore	4–3	3.538	+5.5	+0.423	2 / 1
Kev	3–4	3.692	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Adam	2–5	2.077	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Martin	5–2	4.154	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Josh	4–3	4.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–7	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	4–3	2.308	+5.5	+0.423	3 / 0
Horgan	5–2	6.077	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	4–3	3.846	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Nevans	5–2	3.923	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0

2018 week 7 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Niz lineup

Cumulative totals through week 7