2018 week 3 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 18 – 24, 2018

j-mart

122.48

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Krajcik

89.44

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.50 points left. Optimal 135.98 vs. actual 122.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	27.26	Patrick Mahomes	27.26
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	16.90	Marvin Jones Jr.	16.90
WR	Michael Thomas	24.90	Michael Thomas	24.90
RB	Lamar Miller	14.10	Lamar Miller	14.10
RB	Melvin Gordon III	16.40	Melvin Gordon III	16.40
TE	Evan Engram	2.90	Evan Engram	2.90
W/R/T	Pierre Garcon	2.10	Chris Ivory	15.60
W/R/T	Dede Westbrook	6.10	Dede Westbrook	6.10
K	Harrison Butker	8.00	Harrison Butker	8.00
DEF	Vikings	3.82	Vikings	3.82

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 27.26 points (22.3% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.10 points left. Optimal 108.54 vs. actual 89.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	19.90	Aaron Rodgers	19.90
WR	Julio Jones	14.60	Julio Jones	14.60
WR	Josh Gordon	0.00	Kelvin Benjamin	5.90
RB	Matt Breida	14.70	Matt Breida	14.70
RB	Jordan Wilkins	4.00	Kerryon Johnson	15.00
TE	Rob Gronkowski	9.10	Rob Gronkowski	9.10
W/R/T	Brandon Marshall	5.00	Latavius Murray	8.10
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	8.10	Danny Amendola	7.20
K	Stephen Gostkowski	4.00	Stephen Gostkowski	4.00
DEF	Panthers	10.04	Panthers	10.04

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 19.90 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 18 – 24, 2018

Miller

126.40

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Demich

112.97

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.40 points left. Optimal 153.80 vs. actual 126.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	13.86	Andrew Luck	13.86
WR	Chris Hogan	6.10	Davante Adams	18.20
WR	Davante Adams	18.20	Ted Ginn Jr.	12.20
RB	Kenyan Drake	3.00	Carlos Hyde	24.30
RB	Kareem Hunt	16.40	Kareem Hunt	16.40
TE	Tyler Eifert	13.40	Tyler Eifert	13.40
W/R/T	Tevin Coleman	12.70	Tevin Coleman	12.70
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	14.50	Jamison Crowder	14.50
K	Wil Lutz	14.00	Wil Lutz	14.00
DEF	Bears	14.24	Bears	14.24

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 18.20 points (14.4% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.12 points left. Optimal 119.09 vs. actual 112.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	17.48	Matthew Stafford	17.48
WR	Michael Crabtree	13.10	Demaryius Thomas	11.30
WR	Demaryius Thomas	11.30	Michael Crabtree	13.10
RB	David Johnson	16.10	David Johnson	16.10
RB	Jordan Howard	16.10	Jordan Howard	16.10
TE	Travis Kelce	21.40	Travis Kelce	21.40
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	4.78	Cole Beasley	7.60
W/R/T	Chris Thompson	2.70	DeVante Parker	6.00
K	Josh Lambo	7.00	Josh Lambo	7.00
DEF	Cowboys	3.01	Cowboys	3.01

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 21.40 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Davante Adams scored 18.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 18 – 24, 2018

Martin

145.80

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

126.01

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.50 points left. Optimal 171.30 vs. actual 145.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	10.04	Kirk Cousins	10.04
WR	Devin Funchess	16.70	Devin Funchess	16.70
WR	Calvin Ridley	42.50	Calvin Ridley	42.50
RB	Christian McCaffrey	23.40	Christian McCaffrey	23.40
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	9.30	Nyheim Miller-Hines	9.30
TE	Zach Ertz	12.30	Zach Ertz	12.30
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	22.50	Jarvis Landry	22.50
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	2.20	Tyler Boyd	27.70
K	Brandon McManus	2.00	Brandon McManus	2.00
DEF	Texans	4.86	Texans	4.86

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Ridley, 42.50 points (29.1% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 126.01 vs. actual 126.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jimmy Garoppolo	22.34	Jimmy Garoppolo	22.34
WR	Kenny Stills	15.10	Kenny Stills	15.10
WR	Adam Thielen	26.50	Adam Thielen	26.50
RB	Theo Riddick	6.60	Theo Riddick	6.60
RB	Duke Johnson	5.30	Duke Johnson	5.30
TE	O.J. Howard	13.20	O.J. Howard	13.20
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	8.00	Allen Robinson	8.00
W/R/T	Javorius Allen	17.60	Javorius Allen	17.60
K	Jake Elliott	7.00	Jake Elliott	7.00
DEF	Eagles	4.37	Eagles	4.37

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 26.50 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Calvin Ridley scored 42.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 18 – 24, 2018

Adam

106.27

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

149.83

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.30 points left. Optimal 120.57 vs. actual 106.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	7.52	Tom Brady	7.52
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	14.60	DeAndre Hopkins	14.60
WR	Keenan Allen	5.40	Paul Richardson	11.60
RB	Marshawn Lynch	17.60	Alfred Morris	12.70
RB	Rex Burkhead	4.60	Marshawn Lynch	17.60
TE	Austin Hooper	7.30	Austin Hooper	7.30
W/R/T	Golden Tate	12.90	Golden Tate	12.90
W/R/T	Kenny Golladay	17.30	Kenny Golladay	17.30
K	Adam Vinatieri	9.00	Adam Vinatieri	9.00
DEF	Dolphins	10.05	Dolphins	10.05

Carried by One Guy: Marshawn Lynch, 17.60 points (16.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.50 points left. Optimal 169.33 vs. actual 149.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	26.02	Ben Roethlisberger	26.02
WR	Sammy Watkins	18.50	Sammy Watkins	18.50
WR	Will Fuller V	23.10	Will Fuller V	23.10
RB	Marcus Murphy	4.40	Marcus Murphy	4.40
RB	Saquon Barkley	22.70	Saquon Barkley	22.70
TE	Jake Butt	2.80	Jake Butt	2.80
W/R/T	Marquise Goodwin	11.80	Sterling Shepard	20.00
W/R/T	Sterling Shepard	20.00	Jordy Nelson	31.30
K	Matt Prater	13.00	Matt Prater	13.00
DEF	Giants	7.51	Giants	7.51

Carried by One Guy: Ben Roethlisberger, 26.02 points (17.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 18 – 24, 2018

Kev

170.35

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

128.21

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.80 points left. Optimal 177.15 vs. actual 170.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	27.14	Ryan Fitzpatrick	27.14
WR	Antonio Brown	17.00	Antonio Brown	17.00
WR	Mike Evans	27.70	Mike Evans	27.70
RB	Adrian Peterson	26.00	Giovani Bernard	19.60
RB	Giovani Bernard	19.60	Adrian Peterson	26.00
TE	Jordan Reed	10.50	Jordan Reed	10.50
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	20.02	Tyler Lockett	20.02
W/R/T	Antonio Callaway	6.00	Royce Freeman	12.80
K	Robbie Gould	6.00	Robbie Gould	6.00
DEF	Browns	10.39	Browns	10.39

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 27.70 points (16.3% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 35.10 points left. Optimal 163.31 vs. actual 128.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	29.60	Cam Newton	29.60
WR	Nelson Agholor	6.40	Emmanuel Sanders	18.30
WR	Tyreek Hill	7.70	Geronimo Allison	15.60
RB	Todd Gurley	26.60	Todd Gurley	26.60
RB	James Conner	14.50	James Conner	14.50
TE	George Kittle	14.90	George Kittle	14.90
W/R/T	Larry Fitzgerald	2.90	James White	14.10
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	18.30	Chris Carson	22.40
K	Matt Bryant	3.00	Matt Bryant	3.00
DEF	Patriots	4.31	Patriots	4.31

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 29.60 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 18 – 24, 2018

Joe Shore

134.03

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Niz

177.66

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.80 points left. Optimal 151.83 vs. actual 134.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	27.56	Matt Ryan	42.16
WR	T.Y. Hilton	10.04	T.Y. Hilton	10.04
WR	Amari Cooper	3.70	Willie Snead IV	6.90
RB	Bilal Powell	7.30	Bilal Powell	7.30
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	16.80	Ezekiel Elliott	16.80
TE	Jared Cook	8.10	Jared Cook	8.10
W/R/T	Robert Woods	35.70	Robert Woods	35.70
W/R/T	Keelan Cole Sr.	9.00	Keelan Cole Sr.	9.00
K	Dan Bailey	0.00	Dan Bailey	0.00
DEF	Rams	15.83	Rams	15.83

Carried by One Guy: Robert Woods, 35.70 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.80 points left. Optimal 184.46 vs. actual 177.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	42.54	Drew Brees	42.54
WR	Stefon Diggs	5.70	Ryan Grant	12.50
WR	Mike Williams	24.10	Mike Williams	24.10
RB	Alex Collins	16.40	Alex Collins	16.40
RB	Alvin Kamara	36.32	Alvin Kamara	36.32
TE	Kyle Rudolph	15.80	Kyle Rudolph	15.80
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	16.40	Chris Godwin Jr.	16.40
W/R/T	Jamaal Williams	6.50	Jamaal Williams	6.50
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Ravens	7.90	Ravens	7.90

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 42.54 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 18 – 24, 2018

Josh

126.26

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

134.54

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.34 points left. Optimal 130.60 vs. actual 126.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	17.04	Philip Rivers	17.04
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	21.90	Odell Beckham Jr.	21.90
WR	Cooper Kupp	16.80	Cooper Kupp	16.80
RB	Dion Lewis	7.00	T.J. Yeldon	15.00
RB	Sony Michel	6.26	Austin Ekeler	8.10
TE	Eric Ebron	8.30	Eric Ebron	8.30
W/R/T	John Brown	13.60	John Brown	13.60
W/R/T	T.J. Yeldon	15.00	Trey Burton	9.50
K	Justin Tucker	13.00	Justin Tucker	13.00
DEF	Jaguars	7.36	Jaguars	7.36

Carried by One Guy: Odell Beckham Jr., 21.90 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Deshaun Watson scored 27.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.78 points left. Optimal 152.32 vs. actual 134.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	27.00	Deshaun Watson	27.00
WR	A.J. Green	10.80	A.J. Green	10.80
WR	Brandin Cooks	16.00	Brandin Cooks	16.00
RB	LeGarrette Blount	8.50	Isaiah Crowell	19.10
RB	Isaiah Crowell	19.10	Ty Montgomery II	13.00
TE	Jimmy Graham	9.50	Jimmy Graham	9.50
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	6.70	Mohamed Sanu	15.60
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	22.60	JuJu Smith-Schuster	22.60
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.00
DEF	Jets	4.34	Broncos	8.72

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 27.00 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–0	1.923	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Miller	1–2	1.154	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Demich	0–3	1.385	-3.0	-0.231	0 / 2
Krajcik	0–3	0.538	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Joe Shore	2–1	1.692	+4.0	+0.308	1 / 1
Kev	2–1	1.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	1–2	0.846	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Martin	2–1	1.538	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Josh	1–2	1.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–3	0.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	2–1	1.231	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Horgan	1–2	2.308	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	3–0	2.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Nevans	3–0	2.000	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0

2018 week 3 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Nevans lineup

Cumulative totals through week 3