2018 week 6 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 9 – 15, 2018

j-mart

164.63

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Adam

97.39

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 164.63 vs. actual 164.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	28.98	Patrick Mahomes	28.98
WR	Taylor Gabriel	18.90	Taylor Gabriel	18.90
WR	Dede Westbrook	12.92	Dede Westbrook	12.92
RB	Lamar Miller	9.10	Lamar Miller	9.10
RB	Melvin Gordon III	37.00	Melvin Gordon III	37.00
TE	Hayden Hurst	0.00	Hayden Hurst	0.00
W/R/T	Pierre Garcon	7.70	Peyton Barber	20.60
W/R/T	Peyton Barber	20.60	Pierre Garcon	7.70
K	Harrison Butker	17.00	Harrison Butker	17.00
DEF	Vikings	12.43	Vikings	12.43

Carried by One Guy: Melvin Gordon III, 37.00 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 37.20 points left. Optimal 134.59 vs. actual 97.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	23.80	Tom Brady	23.80
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	17.30	DeAndre Hopkins	17.30
WR	Keenan Allen	14.30	Keenan Allen	14.30
RB	Marshawn Lynch	8.90	Latavius Murray	24.80
RB	Alfred Morris	0.00	Marshawn Lynch	8.90
TE	Vance McDonald	13.80	Vance McDonald	13.80
W/R/T	Quincy Enunwa	-0.10	Paul Richardson	12.30
W/R/T	Keke Coutee	6.30	Keke Coutee	6.30
K	Graham Gano	2.00	Graham Gano	2.00
DEF	Cowboys	11.09	Cowboys	11.09

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 23.80 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 9 – 15, 2018

Miller

165.85

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Kev

134.65

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.20 points left. Optimal 179.05 vs. actual 165.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	24.74	Andrew Luck	24.74
WR	Davante Adams	37.20	Davante Adams	37.20
WR	Christian Kirk	14.04	Christian Kirk	14.04
RB	Carlos Hyde	3.40	Kareem Hunt	31.50
RB	Tevin Coleman	11.10	Corey Clement	15.90
TE	Austin Hooper	22.10	Austin Hooper	22.10
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	31.50	Chris Hogan	11.80
W/R/T	Phillip Lindsay	13.56	Phillip Lindsay	13.56
K	Cody Parkey	4.00	Cody Parkey	4.00
DEF	Bears	4.21	Bears	4.21

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 37.20 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 134.65 vs. actual 134.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	20.88	Russell Wilson	20.88
WR	Antonio Brown	23.50	Antonio Brown	23.50
WR	Mike Evans	9.80	Mike Evans	9.80
RB	Adrian Peterson	9.70	Tarik Cohen	23.20
RB	Tarik Cohen	23.20	Adrian Peterson	9.70
TE	Jordan Reed	8.60	Jordan Reed	8.60
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	11.00	Tyler Lockett	11.00
W/R/T	Chester Rogers	15.50	Chester Rogers	15.50
K	Aldrick Rosas	6.00	Aldrick Rosas	6.00
DEF	Packers	6.47	Packers	6.47

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 23.50 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Davante Adams scored 37.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 9 – 15, 2018

Demich

140.21

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

118.50

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.00 points left. Optimal 148.21 vs. actual 140.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Mitchell Trubisky	29.34	Mitchell Trubisky	29.34
WR	Michael Crabtree	21.30	Demaryius Thomas	14.70
WR	Demaryius Thomas	14.70	Michael Crabtree	21.30
RB	David Johnson	12.90	David Johnson	12.90
RB	Jordan Howard	4.90	Jordan Howard	4.90
TE	Travis Kelce	11.10	Travis Kelce	11.10
W/R/T	Tyrell Williams	28.90	Tyrell Williams	28.90
W/R/T	Taywan Taylor	2.30	Marlon Mack	10.30
K	Ryan Succop	0.00	Ryan Succop	0.00
DEF	Cardinals	14.77	Cardinals	14.77

Carried by One Guy: Mitchell Trubisky, 29.34 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.80 points left. Optimal 132.30 vs. actual 118.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	29.50	Matt Ryan	29.50
WR	Robert Woods	21.10	Robert Woods	21.10
WR	Amari Cooper	0.00	Willie Snead IV	13.00
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	20.70	Ezekiel Elliott	20.70
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	4.10	Ronald Jones	4.90
TE	Jared Cook	3.00	Jared Cook	3.00
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	17.40	Allen Robinson	17.40
W/R/T	Keelan Cole Sr.	6.10	Keelan Cole Sr.	6.10
K	Dan Bailey	10.00	Dan Bailey	10.00
DEF	Rams	6.60	Rams	6.60

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 29.50 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Mitchell Trubisky scored 29.34; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 9 – 15, 2018

Fischer

109.23

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

111.24

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.10 points left. Optimal 125.33 vs. actual 109.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	12.32	Alex Smith	15.82
WR	Doug Baldwin	15.10	Doug Baldwin	15.10
WR	Adam Thielen	31.30	Adam Thielen	31.30
RB	Bilal Powell	5.90	Bilal Powell	5.90
RB	Javorius Allen	4.90	Javorius Allen	4.90
TE	Greg Olsen	8.80	Greg Olsen	8.80
W/R/T	Kenny Stills	6.50	Kenny Stills	6.50
W/R/T	Mike Davis	3.60	O.J. Howard	16.20
K	Jake Elliott	10.00	Jake Elliott	10.00
DEF	Eagles	10.81	Eagles	10.81

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 31.30 points (28.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Saquon Barkley scored 39.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.46 points left. Optimal 140.70 vs. actual 111.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	23.56	Carson Wentz	24.52
WR	Will Fuller V	5.30	Will Fuller V	5.30
WR	Sterling Shepard	6.70	Sterling Shepard	6.70
RB	LeSean McCoy	12.40	Saquon Barkley	39.90
RB	Saquon Barkley	39.90	LeSean McCoy	12.40
TE	Cameron Brate	8.50	Cameron Brate	8.50
W/R/T	Jordy Nelson	2.60	Marquise Goodwin	31.10
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	3.70	Sammy Watkins	3.70
K	Adam Vinatieri	9.00	Adam Vinatieri	9.00
DEF	Giants	-0.42	Giants	-0.42

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 39.90 points (35.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 9 – 15, 2018

Josh

101.97

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

221.73

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.02 points left. Optimal 115.99 vs. actual 101.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	14.28	Philip Rivers	14.28
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	10.40	Odell Beckham Jr.	10.40
WR	Cooper Kupp	1.20	DJ Moore	7.72
RB	T.J. Yeldon	10.00	T.J. Yeldon	10.00
RB	Joe Mixon	18.40	Joe Mixon	18.40
TE	Eric Ebron	17.00	Eric Ebron	17.00
W/R/T	John Brown	4.80	Trey Burton	12.30
W/R/T	Sony Michel	24.60	Sony Michel	24.60
K	Justin Tucker	3.00	Justin Tucker	3.00
DEF	Jaguars	-1.71	Jaguars	-1.71

Carried by One Guy: Sony Michel, 24.60 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.20 points left. Optimal 227.93 vs. actual 221.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	32.70	Jameis Winston	32.70
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	26.50	Emmanuel Sanders	26.50
WR	Tyreek Hill	41.20	Tyreek Hill	41.20
RB	James White	14.20	James White	14.20
RB	Todd Gurley	38.50	Todd Gurley	38.50
TE	George Kittle	7.00	George Kittle	7.00
W/R/T	James Conner	30.90	Nelson Agholor	12.10
W/R/T	Chris Carson	5.90	James Conner	30.90
K	Matt Bryant	13.00	Matt Bryant	13.00
DEF	Chargers	11.83	Chargers	11.83

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 41.20 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 9 – 15, 2018

Martin

131.65

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Niz

127.16

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.20 points left. Optimal 147.85 vs. actual 131.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	17.62	Kirk Cousins	17.62
WR	Jarvis Landry	3.10	Devin Funchess	18.40
WR	Tyler Boyd	25.20	Tyler Boyd	25.20
RB	Christian McCaffrey	13.60	Alfred Blue	6.30
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	5.50	Christian McCaffrey	13.60
TE	Zach Ertz	17.30	Zach Ertz	17.30
W/R/T	Devin Funchess	18.40	David Njoku	18.50
W/R/T	Calvin Ridley	7.70	Calvin Ridley	7.70
K	Brandon McManus	6.00	Brandon McManus	6.00
DEF	Seahawks	17.23	Seahawks	17.23

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Boyd, 25.20 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.00 points left. Optimal 129.16 vs. actual 127.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	17.16	Andy Dalton	17.16
WR	Stefon Diggs	7.20	Ryan Grant	4.40
WR	Mike Williams	2.40	Stefon Diggs	7.20
RB	Alex Collins	17.40	Alex Collins	17.40
RB	Jamaal Williams	4.90	Jamaal Williams	4.90
TE	Kyle Rudolph	7.70	Kyle Rudolph	7.70
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	16.10	Chris Godwin Jr.	17.60
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	17.60	Julian Edelman	16.10
K	Mason Crosby	15.00	Mason Crosby	15.00
DEF	Ravens	21.70	Ravens	21.70

Carried by One Guy: Ravens, 21.70 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyler Boyd scored 25.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 9 – 15, 2018

Krajcik

157.80

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

126.45

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.20 points left. Optimal 189.00 vs. actual 157.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	30.40	Aaron Rodgers	30.40
WR	Julio Jones	26.40	Julio Jones	26.40
WR	Alshon Jeffery	27.40	Alshon Jeffery	27.40
RB	Jalen Richard	12.10	Jalen Richard	12.10
RB	Matt Breida	12.10	Matt Breida	12.10
TE	Rob Gronkowski	12.70	Rob Gronkowski	12.70
W/R/T	Josh Gordon	9.20	Josh Gordon	9.20
W/R/T	Martavis Bryant	3.80	Albert Wilson	35.00
K	Stephen Gostkowski	20.00	Stephen Gostkowski	20.00
DEF	Steelers	3.70	Steelers	3.70

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 30.40 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.88 points left. Optimal 143.33 vs. actual 126.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	5.28	Deshaun Watson	5.28
WR	A.J. Green	15.50	A.J. Green	15.50
WR	Brandin Cooks	7.30	Mohamed Sanu	12.60
RB	Isaiah Crowell	7.20	Duke Johnson	14.90
RB	Ty Montgomery II	11.02	Frank Gore	14.90
TE	Jimmy Graham	17.40	Jimmy Graham	17.40
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	12.58	JuJu Smith-Schuster	22.10
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	22.10	DeSean Jackson	12.58
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	7.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	7.00
DEF	Texans	21.07	Texans	21.07

Carried by One Guy: JuJu Smith-Schuster, 22.10 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–2	3.154	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Miller	4–2	3.538	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Demich	2–4	2.923	-3.0	-0.231	0 / 2
Krajcik	1–5	2.308	-2.0	-0.154	0 / 2
Joe Shore	3–3	3.154	+4.0	+0.308	1 / 1
Kev	3–3	3.077	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Adam	2–4	2.077	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Martin	4–2	3.231	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Josh	3–3	3.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–6	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	3–3	1.846	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Horgan	4–2	5.077	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	4–2	3.692	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Nevans	5–1	3.615	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0

2018 week 6 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Nevans lineup

Cumulative totals through week 6