2018 week 13 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 27 – Dec 3, 2018

j-mart

118.56

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Nevans

95.77

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 118.56 vs. actual 118.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	33.00	Patrick Mahomes	33.00
WR	Michael Thomas	9.00	Michael Thomas	9.00
WR	Curtis Samuel	15.60	Curtis Samuel	15.60
RB	Lamar Miller	14.50	Lamar Miller	14.50
RB	Peyton Barber	8.50	Peyton Barber	8.50
TE	Matt LaCosse	0.00	Matt LaCosse	0.00
W/R/T	Dede Westbrook	5.40	Dede Westbrook	5.40
W/R/T	Rashaad Penny	12.50	Rashaad Penny	12.50
K	Ryan Succop	6.00	Ryan Succop	6.00
DEF	Broncos	14.06	Broncos	14.06

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 33.00 points (27.8% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.40 points left. Optimal 98.17 vs. actual 95.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	15.96	Deshaun Watson	15.96
WR	Brandin Cooks	10.20	Brandin Cooks	10.20
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	10.90	JuJu Smith-Schuster	10.90
RB	Isaiah Crowell	14.70	Isaiah Crowell	14.70
RB	Duke Johnson	3.20	Duke Johnson	3.20
TE	Jimmy Graham	13.00	Jimmy Graham	13.00
W/R/T	A.J. Green	1.70	Mohamed Sanu	6.70
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	6.70	Frank Gore	4.10
K	Jake Elliott	10.00	Jake Elliott	10.00
DEF	Eagles	9.41	Eagles	9.41

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 15.96 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Patrick Mahomes scored 33.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 27 – Dec 3, 2018

Kev

160.07

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Josh

158.32

Rank 3; -4.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.50 points left. Optimal 172.57 vs. actual 160.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	24.80	Russell Wilson	24.80
WR	Antonio Brown	33.40	Antonio Brown	33.40
WR	Mike Evans	8.80	Bruce Ellington	10.50
RB	Chris Thompson	5.10	Giovani Bernard	10.60
RB	Tarik Cohen	36.96	Tarik Cohen	36.96
TE	Jordan Reed	6.10	Jordan Reed	6.10
W/R/T	Bruce Ellington	10.50	Tyler Lockett	16.34
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	16.34	Adrian Peterson	15.80
K	Adam Vinatieri	0.00	Adam Vinatieri	0.00
DEF	Seahawks	18.07	Seahawks	18.07

Carried by One Guy: Tarik Cohen, 36.96 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.84 points left. Optimal 165.16 vs. actual 158.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	22.76	Philip Rivers	23.96
WR	Keenan Allen	38.80	Keenan Allen	38.80
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	18.46	Odell Beckham Jr.	18.46
RB	Joe Mixon	11.50	T.J. Yeldon	13.50
RB	Sony Michel	8.00	Joe Mixon	11.50
TE	Eric Ebron	15.20	Eric Ebron	15.20
W/R/T	Austin Ekeler	9.30	Austin Ekeler	9.30
W/R/T	DJ Moore	10.50	DJ Moore	10.50
K	Justin Tucker	16.00	Justin Tucker	16.00
DEF	Chiefs	7.80	Chargers	7.94

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 38.80 points (24.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tarik Cohen scored 36.96; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 27 – Dec 3, 2018

Adam

97.97

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Martin

120.11

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.28 points left. Optimal 134.25 vs. actual 97.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	14.16	Tom Brady	16.94
WR	Adam Humphries	19.10	Golden Tate	23.50
WR	Kenny Golladay	8.00	Adam Humphries	19.10
RB	Dion Lewis	5.40	Doug Martin	12.70
RB	Theo Riddick	8.80	Theo Riddick	8.80
TE	Trey Burton	0.00	Vance McDonald	6.80
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	15.70	Jarvis Landry	18.30
W/R/T	Corey Davis	14.40	Tyler Boyd	15.70
K	Chris Boswell	6.00	Chris Boswell	6.00
DEF	Panthers	6.41	Panthers	6.41

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Adam Humphries, 19.10 points (19.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Christian McCaffrey scored 33.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.40 points left. Optimal 137.51 vs. actual 120.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	8.04	Kirk Cousins	8.04
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	16.10	DeAndre Hopkins	16.10
WR	Calvin Ridley	5.20	Devin Funchess	8.00
RB	Christian McCaffrey	33.10	Christian McCaffrey	33.10
RB	Dalvin Cook	18.60	Dalvin Cook	18.60
TE	Zach Ertz	17.30	Zach Ertz	17.30
W/R/T	David Njoku	3.80	Chris Conley	11.60
W/R/T	David Moore	0.00	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	6.80
K	Greg Zuerlein	13.00	Greg Zuerlein	13.00
DEF	Packers	4.97	Packers	4.97

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 33.10 points (27.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 27 – Dec 3, 2018

Joe Shore

167.04

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

99.60

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.71 points left. Optimal 182.75 vs. actual 167.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	21.84	Carson Wentz	21.84
WR	T.Y. Hilton	15.70	T.Y. Hilton	15.70
WR	Robert Woods	18.80	Robert Woods	18.80
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	25.50	Ezekiel Elliott	25.50
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	15.20	Aaron Jones Sr.	15.20
TE	Jared Cook	25.00	Jared Cook	25.00
W/R/T	Mark Ingram II	4.80	Allen Robinson	12.90
W/R/T	Josh Adams	8.50	Darren Sproles	8.58
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	21.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	21.00
DEF	Rams	10.70	Texans	18.23

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 25.50 points (15.3% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.74 points left. Optimal 124.34 vs. actual 99.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	15.88	Marcus Mariota	21.58
WR	Adam Thielen	13.80	Adam Thielen	13.80
WR	Tre'Quan Smith	0.00	Anthony Miller	7.10
RB	Carlos Hyde	2.70	LeGarrette Blount	6.10
RB	Justin Jackson	15.20	Justin Jackson	15.20
TE	Cameron Brate	6.60	Cameron Brate	6.60
W/R/T	Greg Olsen	2.30	Doug Baldwin	10.20
W/R/T	Doug Baldwin	10.20	Corey Clement	10.84
K	Aldrick Rosas	15.00	Aldrick Rosas	15.00
DEF	Giants	17.92	Giants	17.92

Carried by One Guy: Giants, 17.92 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 27 – Dec 3, 2018

Krajcik

72.93

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

119.02

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.10 points left. Optimal 81.03 vs. actual 72.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	15.32	Aaron Rodgers	15.32
WR	Julio Jones	3.80	Julio Jones	3.80
WR	Josh Gordon	14.80	Josh Gordon	14.80
RB	Jalen Richard	13.60	Jalen Richard	13.60
RB	Matt Breida	8.70	Matt Breida	8.70
TE	Rob Gronkowski	5.60	Rob Gronkowski	5.60
W/R/T	Danny Amendola	0.00	Alshon Jeffery	6.10
W/R/T	Alshon Jeffery	6.10	Josh Doctson	8.10
K	Matt Bryant	5.00	Matt Bryant	5.00
DEF	Commanders	0.01	Commanders	0.01

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 15.32 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.26 points left. Optimal 128.28 vs. actual 119.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	8.08	Ben Roethlisberger	17.24
WR	Amari Cooper	13.60	Amari Cooper	13.60
WR	Sterling Shepard	6.80	Sterling Shepard	6.80
RB	Saquon Barkley	19.60	Saquon Barkley	19.60
RB	Nick Chubb	16.20	Nick Chubb	16.20
TE	Rhett Ellison	8.20	C.J. Uzomah	8.30
W/R/T	LeSean McCoy	10.40	Derrick Henry	12.50
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	12.50	LeSean McCoy	10.40
K	Matt Prater	8.00	Matt Prater	8.00
DEF	Saints	15.64	Saints	15.64

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 19.60 points (16.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 27 – Dec 3, 2018

Demich

108.81

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

145.76

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.70 points left. Optimal 115.51 vs. actual 108.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	16.50	Lamar Jackson	16.50
WR	Michael Crabtree	6.60	Demaryius Thomas	6.20
WR	Demaryius Thomas	6.20	Michael Crabtree	6.60
RB	David Johnson	8.20	David Johnson	8.20
RB	Marlon Mack	4.30	Jordan Howard	9.00
TE	Travis Kelce	40.80	Travis Kelce	40.80
W/R/T	Jordan Howard	9.00	Randall Cobb	5.50
W/R/T	Josh Reynolds	3.90	Antonio Callaway	9.40
K	Cody Parkey	8.00	Cody Parkey	8.00
DEF	Bills	5.31	Bills	5.31

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 40.80 points (37.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.18 points left. Optimal 160.94 vs. actual 145.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	17.30	Cam Newton	17.30
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	5.90	Courtland Sutton	18.50
WR	Tyreek Hill	6.00	Larry Fitzgerald	7.80
RB	Todd Gurley	33.50	Todd Gurley	33.50
RB	James Conner	22.40	James Conner	22.40
TE	George Kittle	13.00	George Kittle	13.00
W/R/T	James White	18.80	James White	18.80
W/R/T	Chris Carson	13.80	Chris Carson	13.80
K	Stephen Gostkowski	5.00	Stephen Gostkowski	5.00
DEF	Dolphins	10.06	Patriots	10.84

Carried by One Guy: Todd Gurley, 33.50 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 27 – Dec 3, 2018

Miller

127.15

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Niz

106.10

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.40 points left. Optimal 139.55 vs. actual 127.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	9.52	Andrew Luck	9.52
WR	Davante Adams	23.30	Davante Adams	23.30
WR	Christian Kirk	10.98	Christian Kirk	10.98
RB	Spencer Ware	12.20	Spencer Ware	12.20
RB	Phillip Lindsay	30.90	Phillip Lindsay	30.90
TE	Austin Hooper	15.40	Austin Hooper	15.40
W/R/T	Tevin Coleman	2.10	Kenyan Drake	12.40
W/R/T	Kenyan Drake	12.40	Nyheim Miller-Hines	14.50
K	Wil Lutz	4.00	Wil Lutz	4.00
DEF	Titans	6.35	Titans	6.35

Carried by One Guy: Phillip Lindsay, 30.90 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.90 points left. Optimal 109.00 vs. actual 106.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	7.28	Drew Brees	7.28
WR	Donte Moncrief	7.00	Stefon Diggs	9.90
WR	Mike Williams	8.20	Mike Williams	8.20
RB	Alvin Kamara	15.54	Alvin Kamara	15.54
RB	Gus Edwards	8.20	Gus Edwards	8.20
TE	Kyle Rudolph	6.80	Kyle Rudolph	6.80
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	9.58	Chris Godwin Jr.	23.10
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	23.10	Julian Edelman	9.58
K	Mason Crosby	5.00	Mason Crosby	5.00
DEF	Ravens	15.40	Ravens	15.40

Carried by One Guy: Chris Godwin Jr., 23.10 points (21.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Phillip Lindsay scored 30.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	8–5	7.077	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Miller	11–2	8.769	+0.5	+0.038	2 / 1
Demich	5–8	6.000	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 3
Krajcik	1–12	4.308	-6.5	-0.500	0 / 3
Joe Shore	9–4	7.538	+12.0	+0.923	4 / 2
Kev	7–6	7.615	-3.0	-0.231	1 / 3
Adam	3–10	3.077	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Martin	9–4	7.846	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Josh	7–6	7.538	-3.0	-0.231	1 / 1
Fischer	1–12	2.385	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Big Hut	7–6	6.154	+1.5	+0.115	3 / 2
Horgan	9–4	10.231	-6.5	-0.500	0 / 3
Niz	8–5	6.385	+2.5	+0.192	3 / 0
Nevans	6–7	6.077	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2

2018 week 13 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Niz lineup

Cumulative totals through week 13