2018 week 11 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 13 – 19, 2018

j-mart

155.63

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

151.09

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.76 points left. Optimal 163.39 vs. actual 155.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	37.92	Patrick Mahomes	37.92
WR	Taylor Gabriel	13.90	Taylor Gabriel	13.90
WR	Michael Thomas	19.20	Michael Thomas	19.20
RB	Lamar Miller	13.80	Lamar Miller	13.80
RB	Melvin Gordon III	21.60	Melvin Gordon III	21.60
TE	Evan Engram	8.60	Evan Engram	8.60
W/R/T	Peyton Barber	21.00	Peyton Barber	21.00
W/R/T	Dede Westbrook	4.94	Keke Coutee	12.70
K	Ryan Succop	5.00	Ryan Succop	5.00
DEF	Vikings	9.67	Vikings	9.67

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 37.92 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.60 points left. Optimal 151.69 vs. actual 151.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	26.48	Cam Newton	26.48
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	10.20	Tyreek Hill	45.94
WR	Tyreek Hill	45.94	Courtland Sutton	10.80
RB	Todd Gurley	12.40	Todd Gurley	12.40
RB	James Conner	10.90	James Conner	10.90
TE	Jeff Heuerman	6.00	Jeff Heuerman	6.00
W/R/T	Larry Fitzgerald	16.30	Chris Carson	12.30
W/R/T	Chris Carson	12.30	Larry Fitzgerald	16.30
K	Graham Gano	0.00	Graham Gano	0.00
DEF	Steelers	10.57	Steelers	10.57

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 45.94 points (30.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Patrick Mahomes scored 37.92; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 13 – 19, 2018

Krajcik

124.82

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Josh

128.26

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.40 points left. Optimal 129.22 vs. actual 124.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	23.58	Aaron Rodgers	23.58
WR	Julio Jones	25.80	Julio Jones	25.80
WR	Josh Doctson	6.20	Josh Doctson	6.20
RB	Jalen Richard	12.36	Jalen Richard	12.36
RB	Kerryon Johnson	17.70	Kerryon Johnson	17.70
TE	Ricky Seals-Jones	1.50	Ricky Seals-Jones	1.50
W/R/T	Alshon Jeffery	7.30	Alshon Jeffery	7.30
W/R/T	Kapri Bibbs	2.60	Mike Davis	7.00
K	Matt Bryant	16.00	Matt Bryant	16.00
DEF	Commanders	11.78	Commanders	11.78

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 25.80 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DJ Moore scored 30.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.60 points left. Optimal 133.86 vs. actual 128.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	21.64	Philip Rivers	21.64
WR	Keenan Allen	24.00	Keenan Allen	24.00
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	18.50	Odell Beckham Jr.	18.50
RB	T.J. Yeldon	5.20	T.J. Yeldon	5.20
RB	Joe Mixon	14.20	Joe Mixon	14.20
TE	Eric Ebron	0.00	Eric Ebron	0.00
W/R/T	John Brown	3.30	Austin Ekeler	8.90
W/R/T	DJ Moore	30.70	DJ Moore	30.70
K	Justin Tucker	10.00	Justin Tucker	10.00
DEF	Chargers	0.72	Chargers	0.72

Carried by One Guy: DJ Moore, 30.70 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 13 – 19, 2018

Joe Shore

188.58

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Martin

83.18

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.61 points left. Optimal 216.19 vs. actual 188.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	0.84	Matt Ryan	13.74
WR	T.Y. Hilton	38.50	T.Y. Hilton	38.50
WR	Robert Woods	17.20	Robert Woods	17.20
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	35.10	Ezekiel Elliott	35.10
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	27.30	Aaron Jones Sr.	27.30
TE	Jared Cook	12.10	Jared Cook	12.10
W/R/T	Mark Ingram II	24.30	Mark Ingram II	24.30
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	6.90	Josh Adams	16.20
K	Michael Badgley	11.00	Michael Badgley	11.00
DEF	Texans	15.34	Rams	20.75

Carried by One Guy: T.Y. Hilton, 38.50 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.90 points left. Optimal 98.08 vs. actual 83.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	16.98	Kirk Cousins	16.98
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	14.60	DeAndre Hopkins	14.60
WR	Devin Funchess	5.90	John Ross	10.70
RB	Christian McCaffrey	17.00	Christian McCaffrey	17.00
RB	Dalvin Cook	2.00	Ito Smith	4.20
TE	Zach Ertz	3.50	Zach Ertz	3.50
W/R/T	Calvin Ridley	6.70	David Moore	9.70
W/R/T	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1.80	Calvin Ridley	6.70
K	Greg Zuerlein	10.00	Greg Zuerlein	10.00
DEF	Cardinals	4.70	Cardinals	4.70

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 17.00 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 13 – 19, 2018

Kev

153.03

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Adam

86.51

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.70 points left. Optimal 160.73 vs. actual 153.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	18.60	Russell Wilson	18.60
WR	Antonio Brown	24.70	Antonio Brown	24.70
WR	Mike Evans	32.00	Mike Evans	32.00
RB	Adrian Peterson	17.10	Tarik Cohen	6.66
RB	Tarik Cohen	6.66	Adrian Peterson	17.10
TE	Jordan Reed	20.10	Jordan Reed	20.10
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	13.14	Tyler Lockett	13.14
W/R/T	Maurice Harris	2.30	Royce Freeman	10.00
K	Adam Vinatieri	7.00	Adam Vinatieri	7.00
DEF	Giants	11.43	Giants	11.43

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 32.00 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.70 points left. Optimal 109.21 vs. actual 86.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	14.82	Dak Prescott	14.82
WR	Golden Tate	8.96	Golden Tate	8.96
WR	Kenny Golladay	27.30	Kenny Golladay	27.30
RB	Dion Lewis	4.20	Doug Martin	6.80
RB	Theo Riddick	8.00	Theo Riddick	8.00
TE	Trey Burton	1.90	Vance McDonald	11.70
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	11.10	Adam Humphries	15.20
W/R/T	Corey Davis	4.90	Tyler Boyd	11.10
K	Chris Boswell	2.00	Chris Boswell	2.00
DEF	Panthers	3.33	Panthers	3.33

Carried by One Guy: Kenny Golladay, 27.30 points (31.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 13 – 19, 2018

Demich

118.27

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Fischer

117.83

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.40 points left. Optimal 126.67 vs. actual 118.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Mitchell Trubisky	14.90	Mitchell Trubisky	14.90
WR	Michael Crabtree	1.70	Tyrell Williams	4.20
WR	Demaryius Thomas	0.00	Equanimeous St. Brown	2.60
RB	David Johnson	18.40	David Johnson	18.40
RB	Marlon Mack	13.90	Marlon Mack	13.90
TE	Travis Kelce	30.70	Travis Kelce	30.70
W/R/T	Tyrell Williams	4.20	Jordan Howard	7.50
W/R/T	Josh Reynolds	20.00	Josh Reynolds	20.00
K	Cody Parkey	11.00	Cody Parkey	11.00
DEF	Buccaneers	3.47	Buccaneers	3.47

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 30.70 points (26.0% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.48 points left. Optimal 128.31 vs. actual 117.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	3.10	Marcus Mariota	3.10
WR	Doug Baldwin	18.20	Doug Baldwin	18.20
WR	Adam Thielen	15.60	Adam Thielen	15.60
RB	Alfred Blue	4.60	Alfred Blue	4.60
RB	Javorius Allen	0.20	Corey Clement	6.78
TE	Greg Olsen	8.90	O.J. Howard	12.80
W/R/T	Anthony Miller	10.40	Anthony Miller	10.40
W/R/T	Tre'Quan Smith	33.70	Tre'Quan Smith	33.70
K	Aldrick Rosas	10.00	Aldrick Rosas	10.00
DEF	Saints	13.13	Saints	13.13

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tre'Quan Smith, 33.70 points (28.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Travis Kelce scored 30.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 13 – 19, 2018

Miller

163.37

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

128.31

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.40 points left. Optimal 165.77 vs. actual 163.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	23.88	Andrew Luck	23.88
WR	Davante Adams	28.60	Davante Adams	28.60
WR	Christian Kirk	17.46	Christian Kirk	17.46
RB	Tevin Coleman	11.50	Tevin Coleman	11.50
RB	Kareem Hunt	20.10	Kareem Hunt	20.10
TE	Austin Hooper	6.70	Austin Hooper	6.70
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	2.00	Carlos Hyde	4.40
W/R/T	Phillip Lindsay	26.60	Phillip Lindsay	26.60
K	Wil Lutz	10.00	Wil Lutz	10.00
DEF	Bears	16.53	Bears	16.53

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 28.60 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 128.31 vs. actual 128.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	37.12	Jared Goff	37.12
WR	Amari Cooper	6.60	Amari Cooper	6.60
WR	Sterling Shepard	4.20	Sterling Shepard	4.20
RB	Derrick Henry	4.60	Derrick Henry	4.60
RB	Saquon Barkley	37.20	Saquon Barkley	37.20
TE	C.J. Uzomah	7.10	C.J. Uzomah	7.10
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	1.40	Sammy Watkins	1.40
W/R/T	Seth Roberts	7.80	Seth Roberts	7.80
K	Matt Prater	10.00	Matt Prater	10.00
DEF	Chiefs	12.29	Chiefs	12.29

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 37.20 points (29.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 13 – 19, 2018

Niz

123.29

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Nevans

102.69

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.53 points left. Optimal 140.82 vs. actual 123.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	32.52	Drew Brees	32.52
WR	Cole Beasley	10.10	Cole Beasley	10.10
WR	Stefon Diggs	33.60	Stefon Diggs	33.60
RB	Alex Collins	7.80	Alex Collins	7.80
RB	Alvin Kamara	18.06	Alvin Kamara	18.06
TE	Kyle Rudolph	3.30	Kyle Rudolph	3.30
W/R/T	Donte Moncrief	2.10	Mike Williams	7.60
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	8.00	Chris Godwin Jr.	8.00
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Ravens	1.81	Colts	13.84

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 33.60 points (27.3% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.00 points left. Optimal 110.69 vs. actual 102.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	9.02	Deshaun Watson	9.02
WR	Brandin Cooks	20.70	Brandin Cooks	20.70
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	20.40	JuJu Smith-Schuster	20.40
RB	Wendell Smallwood	-0.40	Isaiah Crowell	0.00
RB	Leonard Fournette	22.10	Leonard Fournette	22.10
TE	Jimmy Graham	2.30	Jack Doyle	8.30
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	7.80	Mohamed Sanu	9.90
W/R/T	Jack Doyle	8.30	DeSean Jackson	7.80
K	Harrison Butker	7.00	Harrison Butker	7.00
DEF	Seahawks	5.47	Seahawks	5.47

Carried by One Guy: Leonard Fournette, 22.10 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Stefon Diggs scored 33.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	7–4	6.462	+3.0	+0.231	1 / 1
Miller	9–2	7.385	+0.5	+0.038	2 / 1
Demich	5–6	5.538	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 3
Krajcik	1–10	4.308	-6.5	-0.500	0 / 3
Joe Shore	8–3	5.769	+15.5	+1.192	4 / 1
Kev	6–5	6.154	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Adam	3–8	2.692	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Martin	7–4	6.308	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Josh	6–5	5.692	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Fischer	0–11	1.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	5–6	4.769	+1.5	+0.115	3 / 2
Horgan	8–3	9.154	-6.5	-0.500	0 / 3
Niz	7–4	5.615	+2.0	+0.154	2 / 0
Nevans	5–6	5.385	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2

2018 week 11 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Nevans lineup

Cumulative totals through week 11