2018 week 16 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 18 – 24, 2018

Kev

124.99

Josh

77.10

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.60 points left. Optimal 150.59 vs. actual 124.99.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	28.54	Russell Wilson	28.54
WR	Antonio Brown	46.50	Antonio Brown	46.50
WR	Mike Evans	21.00	Mike Evans	21.00
RB	Chris Thompson	3.80	Chris Thompson	3.80
RB	Tarik Cohen	2.90	Adrian Peterson	15.70
TE	Jordan Reed	0.00	Jordan Reed	0.00
W/R/T	Bruce Ellington	0.00	Tyler Lockett	14.80
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	14.80	Jamison Crowder	12.80
K	Adam Vinatieri	4.00	Adam Vinatieri	4.00
DEF	Seahawks	3.45	Seahawks	3.45

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 46.50 points (37.2% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.14 points left. Optimal 95.24 vs. actual 77.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	16.84	Jameis Winston	16.84
WR	Keenan Allen	10.80	Keenan Allen	10.80
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	0.00	John Brown	4.70
RB	Joe Mixon	9.80	Joe Mixon	9.80
RB	Sony Michel	19.82	Sony Michel	19.82
TE	Eric Ebron	5.80	Eric Ebron	5.80
W/R/T	Austin Ekeler	0.00	Latavius Murray	4.80
W/R/T	DJ Moore	3.90	DJ Moore	3.90
K	Justin Tucker	11.00	Justin Tucker	11.00
DEF	Chiefs	-0.86	Chargers	7.78

Carried by One Guy: Sony Michel, 19.82 points (25.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Consolation

Dec 18 – 24, 2018

Demich

91.90

Big Hut

126.94

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.20 points left. Optimal 109.10 vs. actual 91.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	16.06	Lamar Jackson	16.06
WR	Michael Crabtree	3.00	Demaryius Thomas	6.70
WR	Demaryius Thomas	6.70	Josh Reynolds	6.40
RB	David Johnson	13.70	David Johnson	13.70
RB	Marlon Mack	10.80	Marlon Mack	10.80
TE	Travis Kelce	10.40	Travis Kelce	10.40
W/R/T	Jordan Howard	15.00	Jordan Howard	15.00
W/R/T	Josh Reynolds	6.40	Chris Herndon	20.20
K	Cody Parkey	2.00	Cody Parkey	2.00
DEF	Bills	7.84	Bills	7.84

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 16.06 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.86 points left. Optimal 143.80 vs. actual 126.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	17.24	Ben Roethlisberger	31.60
WR	Amari Cooper	6.00	Amari Cooper	6.00
WR	Sterling Shepard	19.00	Sterling Shepard	19.00
RB	Saquon Barkley	18.70	Saquon Barkley	18.70
RB	Nick Chubb	15.50	Nick Chubb	15.50
TE	C.J. Uzomah	14.90	C.J. Uzomah	14.90
W/R/T	Seth Roberts	3.40	Marquise Goodwin	5.90
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	16.20	Derrick Henry	16.20
K	Matt Prater	11.00	Matt Prater	11.00
DEF	Saints	5.00	Saints	5.00

Carried by One Guy: Sterling Shepard, 19.00 points (15.0% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 18 – 24, 2018

j-mart

127.94

Joe Shore

131.21

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.29 points left. Optimal 156.23 vs. actual 127.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	28.22	Patrick Mahomes	28.22
WR	Michael Thomas	29.90	Michael Thomas	29.90
WR	Curtis Samuel	11.10	Curtis Samuel	11.10
RB	Alfred Blue	8.00	Melvin Gordon III	14.40
RB	Melvin Gordon III	14.40	Peyton Barber	8.60
TE	Ian Thomas	14.80	Ian Thomas	14.80
W/R/T	Dede Westbrook	13.32	Zay Jones	17.70
W/R/T	Isaiah McKenzie	2.04	Dede Westbrook	13.32
K	Michael Badgley	4.00	Michael Badgley	4.00
DEF	Broncos	2.16	Falcons	14.19

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Michael Thomas, 29.90 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Robert Woods scored 28.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.43 points left. Optimal 153.64 vs. actual 131.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	28.04	Sam Darnold	28.04
WR	Robert Woods	28.40	Robert Woods	28.40
WR	Allen Robinson	13.40	Allen Robinson	13.40
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	15.90	Mark Ingram II	11.30
RB	Josh Adams	0.10	Ezekiel Elliott	15.90
TE	Jared Cook	4.00	Jared Cook	4.00
W/R/T	Mark Ingram II	11.30	T.Y. Hilton	22.80
W/R/T	T.Y. Hilton	22.80	Courtland Sutton	18.50
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	5.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	5.00
DEF	Colts	2.27	Texans	6.30

Carried by One Guy: Robert Woods, 28.40 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 18 – 24, 2018

Miller

166.26

Horgan

181.48

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.00 points left. Optimal 182.26 vs. actual 166.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	23.58	Andrew Luck	23.58
WR	Davante Adams	24.10	Davante Adams	24.10
WR	Robbie Chosen	31.26	Robbie Chosen	31.26
RB	Tevin Coleman	5.10	Jamaal Williams	27.60
RB	Phillip Lindsay	7.70	Nyheim Miller-Hines	14.30
TE	Jaylen Samuels	15.40	Jaylen Samuels	15.40
W/R/T	Jamaal Williams	27.60	DaeSean Hamilton	16.00
W/R/T	DaeSean Hamilton	16.00	Jordy Nelson	14.50
K	Wil Lutz	8.00	Wil Lutz	8.00
DEF	Bears	7.52	Bears	7.52

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Robbie Chosen, 31.26 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Nick Foles scored 32.94; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 181.48 vs. actual 181.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Nick Foles	32.94	Nick Foles	32.94
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	16.58	Tyreek Hill	13.10
WR	Tyreek Hill	13.10	Larry Fitzgerald	16.58
RB	James White	13.40	James White	13.40
RB	Chris Carson	25.60	Chris Carson	25.60
TE	George Kittle	14.40	George Kittle	14.40
W/R/T	C.J. Anderson	25.20	C.J. Anderson	25.20
W/R/T	Damien Williams	27.00	Damien Williams	27.00
K	Stephen Gostkowski	5.00	Stephen Gostkowski	5.00
DEF	Rams	8.26	Rams	8.26

Carried by One Guy: Nick Foles, 32.94 points (18.2% of positive starter points).

2018 week 16 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

Kev lineup

Josh lineup

Consolation

Demich lineup

Big Hut lineup

Playoff

j-mart lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Playoff

Miller lineup

Horgan lineup