2018 week 9 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 30 – Nov 5, 2018

j-mart

167.69

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

124.31

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.20 points left. Optimal 177.89 vs. actual 167.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	28.80	Patrick Mahomes	28.80
WR	Taylor Gabriel	7.50	Taylor Gabriel	7.50
WR	Michael Thomas	41.10	Michael Thomas	41.10
RB	Lamar Miller	6.80	Melvin Gordon III	21.30
RB	Melvin Gordon III	21.30	Devontae Booker	8.40
TE	Ben Watson	15.20	Ben Watson	15.20
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	12.60	Marvin Jones Jr.	12.60
W/R/T	Peyton Barber	6.00	Pierre Garcon	14.60
K	Harrison Butker	6.00	Harrison Butker	6.00
DEF	Vikings	22.39	Vikings	22.39

Carried by One Guy: Michael Thomas, 41.10 points (24.5% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.70 points left. Optimal 129.01 vs. actual 124.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Alex Smith	18.44	Alex Smith	18.44
WR	Adam Thielen	12.70	Adam Thielen	12.70
WR	Anthony Miller	10.80	Anthony Miller	10.80
RB	Javorius Allen	6.40	Raheem Mostert	14.60
RB	Raheem Mostert	14.60	Elijah McGuire	9.70
TE	O.J. Howard	21.30	O.J. Howard	21.30
W/R/T	Greg Olsen	19.60	Doug Baldwin	11.70
W/R/T	Tre'Quan Smith	10.30	Greg Olsen	19.60
K	Dustin Hopkins	2.00	Dustin Hopkins	2.00
DEF	Jets	8.17	Jets	8.17

Carried by One Guy: O.J. Howard, 21.30 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 30 – Nov 5, 2018

Miller

177.20

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh

119.11

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 177.20 vs. actual 177.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	24.02	Ryan Fitzpatrick	24.02
WR	Davante Adams	16.00	Davante Adams	16.00
WR	Quincy Enunwa	7.00	Quincy Enunwa	7.00
RB	Kenyan Drake	7.50	Kenyan Drake	7.50
RB	Kareem Hunt	33.10	Kareem Hunt	33.10
TE	Austin Hooper	7.10	Austin Hooper	7.10
W/R/T	Tevin Coleman	32.60	Tevin Coleman	32.60
W/R/T	Phillip Lindsay	10.40	Phillip Lindsay	10.40
K	Wil Lutz	11.00	Wil Lutz	11.00
DEF	Bears	28.48	Bears	28.48

Carried by One Guy: Kareem Hunt, 33.10 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 119.11 vs. actual 119.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	17.12	Philip Rivers	17.12
WR	John Brown	4.50	John Brown	4.50
WR	Cooper Kupp	19.90	Cooper Kupp	19.90
RB	Dion Lewis	22.20	Dion Lewis	22.20
RB	Austin Ekeler	4.40	Austin Ekeler	4.40
TE	Trey Burton	10.80	Trey Burton	10.80
W/R/T	Corey Davis	12.00	Corey Davis	12.00
W/R/T	DJ Moore	5.80	DJ Moore	5.80
K	Justin Tucker	8.00	Justin Tucker	8.00
DEF	Chargers	14.39	Chargers	14.39

Carried by One Guy: Dion Lewis, 22.20 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 30 – Nov 5, 2018

Demich

135.31

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Martin

142.52

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 135.31 vs. actual 135.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Mitchell Trubisky	8.00	Mitchell Trubisky	8.00
WR	Michael Crabtree	6.20	Demaryius Thomas	9.10
WR	Demaryius Thomas	9.10	Michael Crabtree	6.20
RB	Spencer Ware	12.10	Spencer Ware	12.10
RB	Jordan Howard	16.70	Jordan Howard	16.70
TE	Travis Kelce	28.90	Travis Kelce	28.90
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	7.40	Randall Cobb	7.40
W/R/T	Tyrell Williams	10.30	Tyrell Williams	10.30
K	Cody Parkey	11.00	Cody Parkey	11.00
DEF	Dolphins	25.61	Dolphins	25.61

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 28.90 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Christian McCaffrey scored 32.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.50 points left. Optimal 149.02 vs. actual 142.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	6.86	Kirk Cousins	6.86
WR	Jarvis Landry	11.00	Jarvis Landry	11.00
WR	Devin Funchess	8.40	Calvin Ridley	19.70
RB	Christian McCaffrey	32.70	Christian McCaffrey	32.70
RB	Ito Smith	13.40	Ito Smith	13.40
TE	David Njoku	9.30	David Njoku	9.30
W/R/T	Calvin Ridley	19.70	Dalvin Cook	14.90
W/R/T	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	15.10	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	15.10
K	Greg Zuerlein	11.00	Greg Zuerlein	11.00
DEF	49ers	15.06	49ers	15.06

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 32.70 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 30 – Nov 5, 2018

Krajcik

109.91

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Adam

119.58

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.00 points left. Optimal 121.91 vs. actual 109.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	19.16	Aaron Rodgers	19.16
WR	Danny Amendola	9.70	Julio Jones	27.10
WR	Julio Jones	27.10	Danny Amendola	9.70
RB	Matt Breida	5.70	Mike Davis	17.70
RB	Kerryon Johnson	7.40	Kerryon Johnson	7.40
TE	Will Tye	0.00	Will Tye	0.00
W/R/T	Josh Gordon	26.00	Josh Gordon	26.00
W/R/T	Jalen Richard	8.90	Jalen Richard	8.90
K	Stephen Gostkowski	6.00	Stephen Gostkowski	6.00
DEF	Commanders	-0.05	Commanders	-0.05

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 27.10 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DeAndre Hopkins scored 28.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 119.58 vs. actual 119.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	15.66	Tom Brady	15.66
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	28.50	DeAndre Hopkins	28.50
WR	Keenan Allen	23.20	Keenan Allen	23.20
RB	Doug Martin	7.90	Doug Martin	7.90
RB	Latavius Murray	11.70	Latavius Murray	11.70
TE	Vance McDonald	5.50	Vance McDonald	5.50
W/R/T	Theo Riddick	10.60	Theo Riddick	10.60
W/R/T	Kenny Golladay	8.40	Kenny Golladay	8.40
K	Chris Boswell	3.00	Chris Boswell	3.00
DEF	Panthers	5.12	Panthers	5.12

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 28.50 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 30 – Nov 5, 2018

Joe Shore

105.07

Rank 13; +5.5 luck points

Kev

76.85

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 105.07 vs. actual 105.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	30.00	Matt Ryan	30.00
WR	Robert Woods	12.50	Robert Woods	12.50
WR	Willie Snead IV	12.80	Willie Snead IV	12.80
RB	Mark Ingram II	2.60	Mark Ingram II	2.60
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	8.50	Aaron Jones Sr.	8.50
TE	Jared Cook	4.00	Jared Cook	4.00
W/R/T	Ezekiel Elliott	15.20	Ezekiel Elliott	15.20
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	7.30	Robbie Chosen	7.30
K	Dan Bailey	6.00	Dan Bailey	6.00
DEF	Broncos	6.17	Broncos	6.17

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 30.00 points (28.6% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.70 points left. Optimal 77.55 vs. actual 76.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	19.50	Russell Wilson	19.50
WR	Antonio Brown	15.20	Antonio Brown	15.20
WR	Mike Evans	2.60	T.J. Jones	3.30
RB	Adrian Peterson	6.30	Tarik Cohen	3.26
RB	Tarik Cohen	3.26	Adrian Peterson	6.30
TE	Jordan Reed	7.40	Jordan Reed	7.40
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	5.96	Tyler Lockett	5.96
W/R/T	Rashard Higgins	4.90	Rashard Higgins	4.90
K	Giorgio Tavecchio	7.00	Giorgio Tavecchio	7.00
DEF	Seahawks	4.73	Seahawks	4.73

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 19.50 points (25.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Matt Ryan scored 30.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 30 – Nov 5, 2018

Big Hut

121.47

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Niz

126.44

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.50 points left. Optimal 125.97 vs. actual 121.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	31.34	Jared Goff	31.34
WR	Sammy Watkins	11.40	Sammy Watkins	11.40
WR	Amari Cooper	16.80	Amari Cooper	16.80
RB	Derrick Henry	11.20	Derrick Henry	11.20
RB	Nick Chubb	16.00	Nick Chubb	16.00
TE	Jordan Thomas	7.70	Jordan Thomas	7.70
W/R/T	Jordy Nelson	3.60	Antonio Callaway	8.10
W/R/T	LeSean McCoy	6.90	LeSean McCoy	6.90
K	Matt Prater	9.00	Matt Prater	9.00
DEF	Chiefs	7.53	Chiefs	7.53

Carried by One Guy: Jared Goff, 31.34 points (25.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Alvin Kamara scored 33.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.66 points left. Optimal 134.10 vs. actual 126.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	33.44	Drew Brees	33.44
WR	Cole Beasley	4.74	Mike Williams	10.00
WR	Mike Williams	10.00	Chris Godwin Jr.	6.00
RB	Alex Collins	10.90	Alex Collins	10.90
RB	Alvin Kamara	33.60	Alvin Kamara	33.60
TE	Kyle Rudolph	4.80	Kyle Rudolph	4.80
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	17.38	Jamaal Williams	7.40
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	6.00	Julian Edelman	17.38
K	Mason Crosby	4.00	Jason Myers	9.00
DEF	Ravens	1.58	Ravens	1.58

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 33.60 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 30 – Nov 5, 2018

Horgan

162.98

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

139.48

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.70 points left. Optimal 167.68 vs. actual 162.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	21.18	Cam Newton	21.18
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	10.70	Emmanuel Sanders	10.70
WR	Tyreek Hill	12.50	Tyreek Hill	12.50
RB	James White	28.30	James White	28.30
RB	Todd Gurley	19.90	Todd Gurley	19.90
TE	George Kittle	22.80	George Kittle	22.80
W/R/T	James Conner	31.30	James Conner	31.30
W/R/T	Chris Carson	4.00	Courtland Sutton	8.70
K	Graham Gano	6.00	Graham Gano	6.00
DEF	Cowboys	6.30	Cowboys	6.30

Carried by One Guy: James Conner, 31.30 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.00 points left. Optimal 144.48 vs. actual 139.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	20.32	Deshaun Watson	20.32
WR	Mohamed Sanu	8.50	Mohamed Sanu	8.50
WR	Brandin Cooks	25.40	Brandin Cooks	25.40
RB	Isaiah Crowell	7.00	Isaiah Crowell	7.00
RB	Duke Johnson	29.60	Duke Johnson	29.60
TE	Jimmy Graham	15.50	Jimmy Graham	15.50
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	5.20	JuJu Smith-Schuster	14.80
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	14.80	Chris Herndon	10.20
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	7.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	7.00
DEF	Texans	6.16	Texans	6.16

Carried by One Guy: Duke Johnson, 29.60 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: James Conner scored 31.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–3	5.462	+3.0	+0.231	1 / 1
Miller	7–2	6.000	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Demich	4–5	5.000	-4.5	-0.346	0 / 3
Krajcik	1–8	3.000	-2.0	-0.154	0 / 2
Joe Shore	6–3	3.769	+15.5	+1.192	4 / 1
Kev	4–5	4.692	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Adam	3–6	2.615	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Martin	6–3	5.385	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Josh	4–5	4.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–9	1.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	4–5	3.385	+3.0	+0.231	3 / 1
Horgan	7–2	7.846	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	6–3	4.923	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Nevans	5–4	4.692	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1

2018 week 9 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Nevans lineup

Cumulative totals through week 9