2018 week 1 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 6 – 10, 2018

j-mart

162.11

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Miller

105.59

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.00 points left. Optimal 168.11 vs. actual 162.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	28.34	Patrick Mahomes	28.34
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	9.40	Marvin Jones Jr.	9.40
WR	Michael Thomas	40.00	Michael Thomas	40.00
RB	Lamar Miller	11.90	Lamar Miller	11.90
RB	Melvin Gordon III	29.60	Melvin Gordon III	29.60
TE	Evan Engram	3.80	Evan Engram	3.80
W/R/T	Pierre Garcon	4.10	Peyton Barber	6.90
W/R/T	Peyton Barber	6.90	Dede Westbrook	10.10
K	Harrison Butker	9.00	Harrison Butker	9.00
DEF	Vikings	19.07	Vikings	19.07

Carried by One Guy: Michael Thomas, 40.00 points (24.7% of positive starter points).

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.40 points left. Optimal 114.99 vs. actual 105.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	21.46	Andrew Luck	21.46
WR	Chris Hogan	2.10	Davante Adams	19.80
WR	Davante Adams	19.80	Jamison Crowder	6.20
RB	Kenyan Drake	9.60	Kenyan Drake	9.60
RB	Kareem Hunt	4.90	Kareem Hunt	4.90
TE	Tyler Eifert	7.40	Tyler Eifert	7.40
W/R/T	Carlos Hyde	13.50	Carlos Hyde	13.50
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	6.20	Tevin Coleman	11.50
K	Wil Lutz	6.00	Wil Lutz	6.00
DEF	Bears	14.63	Bears	14.63

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 21.46 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 6 – 10, 2018

Adam

124.19

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Josh

182.11

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.60 points left. Optimal 142.79 vs. actual 124.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	21.28	Tom Brady	21.28
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	15.10	DeAndre Hopkins	15.10
WR	Keenan Allen	26.80	Keenan Allen	26.80
RB	Marshawn Lynch	12.90	Rex Burkhead	7.90
RB	Rex Burkhead	7.90	Marshawn Lynch	12.90
TE	Delanie Walker	9.20	Delanie Walker	9.20
W/R/T	Golden Tate	20.90	Golden Tate	20.90
W/R/T	Alfred Morris	1.80	Kenny Golladay	20.40
K	Adam Vinatieri	12.00	Adam Vinatieri	12.00
DEF	Chargers	-3.69	Chargers	-3.69

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 26.80 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.00 points left. Optimal 206.11 vs. actual 182.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	30.96	Philip Rivers	30.96
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	24.00	Odell Beckham Jr.	24.00
WR	Corey Davis	12.20	Cooper Kupp	17.80
RB	Dion Lewis	22.00	Dion Lewis	22.00
RB	Joe Mixon	25.90	Joe Mixon	25.90
TE	Trey Burton	2.50	Eric Ebron	15.10
W/R/T	Jay Ajayi	20.20	Jay Ajayi	20.20
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	17.80	Austin Ekeler	23.60
K	Justin Tucker	12.00	Justin Tucker	12.00
DEF	Jaguars	14.55	Jaguars	14.55

Carried by One Guy: Philip Rivers, 30.96 points (17.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 6 – 10, 2018

Kev

148.02

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

107.52

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.00 points left. Optimal 160.02 vs. actual 148.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	20.42	Russell Wilson	20.42
WR	Antonio Brown	24.30	Antonio Brown	24.30
WR	Mike Evans	29.70	Mike Evans	29.70
RB	Derrick Henry	4.10	Tarik Cohen	8.00
RB	Royce Freeman	7.10	Adrian Peterson	22.60
TE	Jordan Reed	14.80	Jordan Reed	14.80
W/R/T	Adrian Peterson	22.60	Tyler Lockett	15.90
W/R/T	Tarik Cohen	8.00	John Ross	7.30
K	Robbie Gould	10.00	Robbie Gould	10.00
DEF	Lions	7.00	Lions	7.00

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 29.70 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.40 points left. Optimal 114.92 vs. actual 107.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Alex Smith	19.60	Alex Smith	19.60
WR	Doug Baldwin	0.00	Kenny Stills	28.60
WR	Adam Thielen	18.20	Adam Thielen	18.20
RB	Theo Riddick	8.50	Theo Riddick	8.50
RB	Duke Johnson	3.50	Duke Johnson	3.50
TE	Greg Olsen	5.30	Greg Olsen	5.30
W/R/T	Kenny Stills	28.60	Allen Robinson	10.10
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	10.10	O.J. Howard	7.40
K	Jake Elliott	3.00	Jake Elliott	3.00
DEF	Eagles	10.72	Eagles	10.72

Carried by One Guy: Kenny Stills, 28.60 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 6 – 10, 2018

Joe Shore

99.01

Rank 13; +5.5 luck points

Big Hut

67.89

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.50 points left. Optimal 104.51 vs. actual 99.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	8.84	Matt Ryan	8.84
WR	T.Y. Hilton	15.60	T.Y. Hilton	15.60
WR	Amari Cooper	2.80	Robert Woods	7.30
RB	Bilal Powell	7.50	Bilal Powell	7.50
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	17.60	Ezekiel Elliott	17.60
TE	Mike Gesicki	2.10	Mike Gesicki	2.10
W/R/T	Robert Woods	7.30	Keelan Cole Sr.	8.40
W/R/T	Keelan Cole Sr.	8.40	Rashaad Penny	8.30
K	Ryan Succop	11.00	Ryan Succop	11.00
DEF	Rams	17.87	Rams	17.87

Carried by One Guy: Rams, 17.87 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.30 points left. Optimal 73.19 vs. actual 67.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	11.00	Ben Roethlisberger	11.00
WR	Marquise Goodwin	0.00	Sammy Watkins	5.10
WR	Sammy Watkins	5.10	Jordy Nelson	5.30
RB	Devonta Freeman	8.00	Devonta Freeman	8.00
RB	Saquon Barkley	22.80	Saquon Barkley	22.80
TE	Ben Watson	8.40	Ben Watson	8.40
W/R/T	LeSean McCoy	3.10	Sterling Shepard	9.80
W/R/T	Sterling Shepard	9.80	LeSean McCoy	3.10
K	Matt Prater	4.00	Matt Prater	4.00
DEF	Saints	-4.31	Saints	-4.31

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 22.80 points (31.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 6 – 10, 2018

Krajcik

132.40

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Horgan

212.13

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.34 points left. Optimal 147.74 vs. actual 132.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	24.94	Aaron Rodgers	24.94
WR	Julio Jones	30.00	Julio Jones	30.00
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	2.00	Josh Gordon	8.70
RB	Matt Breida	6.10	Kerryon Johnson	6.70
RB	Kerryon Johnson	6.70	Darren Sproles	7.78
TE	Rob Gronkowski	25.30	Rob Gronkowski	25.30
W/R/T	Danny Amendola	6.64	Jordan Wilkins	9.10
W/R/T	Jordan Wilkins	9.10	Brandon Marshall	13.60
K	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00
DEF	Panthers	12.62	Panthers	12.62

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 30.00 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.40 points left. Optimal 220.53 vs. actual 212.13.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	18.24	Cam Newton	18.24
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	14.60	Tyreek Hill	46.20
WR	Tyreek Hill	46.20	Geronimo Allison	17.90
RB	Todd Gurley	25.70	Todd Gurley	25.70
RB	James Conner	36.20	James Conner	36.20
TE	Jack Doyle	11.00	George Kittle	14.00
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	31.50	Emmanuel Sanders	31.50
W/R/T	Nelson Agholor	13.50	James White	15.60
K	Matt Bryant	6.00	Matt Bryant	6.00
DEF	Patriots	9.19	Patriots	9.19

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 46.20 points (21.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 6 – 10, 2018

Demich

145.61

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Niz

152.74

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.50 points left. Optimal 147.11 vs. actual 145.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	8.04	Matthew Stafford	8.04
WR	Michael Crabtree	12.80	Demaryius Thomas	18.30
WR	Demaryius Thomas	18.30	Cole Beasley	14.30
RB	David Johnson	17.70	David Johnson	17.70
RB	Jordan Howard	15.70	Jordan Howard	15.70
TE	Travis Kelce	1.60	Travis Kelce	1.60
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	31.54	Randall Cobb	31.54
W/R/T	Chris Thompson	24.80	Chris Thompson	24.80
K	Josh Lambo	8.00	Josh Lambo	8.00
DEF	Cowboys	7.13	Cowboys	7.13

Carried by One Guy: Randall Cobb, 31.54 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Alvin Kamara scored 45.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.90 points left. Optimal 172.64 vs. actual 152.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	33.56	Drew Brees	33.56
WR	Stefon Diggs	14.10	Stefon Diggs	14.10
WR	Mike Williams	13.10	Mike Williams	13.10
RB	Alex Collins	6.90	Alex Collins	6.90
RB	Alvin Kamara	45.10	Alvin Kamara	45.10
TE	Kyle Rudolph	8.10	Kyle Rudolph	8.10
W/R/T	Donte Moncrief	2.40	Ryan Grant	13.90
W/R/T	Jamaal Williams	4.70	Chris Godwin Jr.	13.10
K	Mason Crosby	7.00	Mason Crosby	7.00
DEF	Ravens	17.78	Ravens	17.78

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 45.10 points (29.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 6 – 10, 2018

Martin

122.12

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

123.77

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.40 points left. Optimal 132.52 vs. actual 122.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	20.36	Kirk Cousins	20.36
WR	Jarvis Landry	19.60	Jarvis Landry	19.60
WR	Devin Funchess	7.10	Robbie Chosen	10.20
RB	Christian McCaffrey	13.50	Christian McCaffrey	13.50
RB	Dalvin Cook	13.50	Dalvin Cook	13.50
TE	Zach Ertz	9.80	Zach Ertz	9.80
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	10.20	Alfred Blue	9.60
W/R/T	David Njoku	4.30	Nyheim Miller-Hines	12.20
K	Greg Zuerlein	14.00	Greg Zuerlein	14.00
DEF	Texans	9.76	Texans	9.76

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 20.36 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Isaiah Crowell scored 24.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.90 points left. Optimal 151.67 vs. actual 123.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	11.04	Deshaun Watson	11.04
WR	A.J. Green	19.20	A.J. Green	19.20
WR	Brandin Cooks	14.30	Brandin Cooks	14.30
RB	Isaiah Crowell	24.20	Isaiah Crowell	24.20
RB	Leonard Fournette	8.50	Leonard Fournette	8.50
TE	Jimmy Graham	2.80	Jimmy Graham	2.80
W/R/T	Ty Montgomery II	5.74	JuJu Smith-Schuster	18.90
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	18.90	DeSean Jackson	33.64
K	Daniel Carlson	7.00	Daniel Carlson	7.00
DEF	Broncos	12.09	Broncos	12.09

Carried by One Guy: Isaiah Crowell, 24.20 points (19.6% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–0	0.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	0–1	0.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	0–1	0.615	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Krajcik	0–1	0.538	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Joe Shore	1–0	0.077	+5.5	+0.423	1 / 0
Kev	1–0	0.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	0–1	0.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	0–1	0.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–0	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–1	0.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	0–1	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	1–0	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–0	0.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Nevans	1–0	0.385	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0

2018 week 1 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Nevans lineup

Cumulative totals through week 1