2018 week 8 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 23 – 29, 2018

j-mart

151.19

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Josh

120.68

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 151.19 vs. actual 151.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	28.02	Patrick Mahomes	28.02
WR	Taylor Gabriel	9.20	Taylor Gabriel	9.20
WR	Michael Thomas	13.10	Michael Thomas	13.10
RB	Lamar Miller	21.30	Lamar Miller	21.30
RB	Peyton Barber	14.50	Peyton Barber	14.50
TE	Evan Engram	13.50	Evan Engram	13.50
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	32.70	Marvin Jones Jr.	32.70
W/R/T	Dede Westbrook	12.46	Dede Westbrook	12.46
K	Harrison Butker	4.00	Harrison Butker	4.00
DEF	Vikings	2.41	Vikings	2.41

Carried by One Guy: Marvin Jones Jr., 32.70 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 120.68 vs. actual 120.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Case Keenum	15.38	Case Keenum	15.38
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	23.60	Odell Beckham Jr.	23.60
WR	John Brown	5.80	John Brown	5.80
RB	T.J. Yeldon	16.00	T.J. Yeldon	16.00
RB	Joe Mixon	30.80	Joe Mixon	30.80
TE	Eric Ebron	12.70	Eric Ebron	12.70
W/R/T	Trey Burton	4.80	Trey Burton	4.80
W/R/T	Sony Michel	0.00	Sony Michel	0.00
K	Justin Tucker	3.00	Justin Tucker	3.00
DEF	Jaguars	8.60	Jaguars	8.60

Carried by One Guy: Joe Mixon, 30.80 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Marvin Jones Jr. scored 32.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 23 – 29, 2018

Miller

148.61

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Martin

130.10

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.60 points left. Optimal 152.21 vs. actual 148.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	23.36	Andrew Luck	23.36
WR	Davante Adams	20.30	Davante Adams	20.30
WR	Christian Kirk	13.20	Christian Kirk	13.20
RB	Kenyan Drake	23.50	Kenyan Drake	23.50
RB	Kareem Hunt	19.60	Kareem Hunt	19.60
TE	C.J. Uzomah	0.00	C.J. Uzomah	0.00
W/R/T	Chris Hogan	6.90	Nyheim Miller-Hines	10.50
W/R/T	Phillip Lindsay	20.20	Phillip Lindsay	20.20
K	Wil Lutz	16.00	Wil Lutz	16.00
DEF	Bears	5.55	Bears	5.55

Carried by One Guy: Kenyan Drake, 23.50 points (15.8% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 130.10 vs. actual 130.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	22.66	Kirk Cousins	22.66
WR	Jarvis Landry	11.90	Jarvis Landry	11.90
WR	Devin Funchess	5.70	Devin Funchess	5.70
RB	Christian McCaffrey	21.60	Christian McCaffrey	21.60
RB	Trenton Cannon	5.20	Trenton Cannon	5.20
TE	Zach Ertz	12.60	Zach Ertz	12.60
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	30.60	Tyler Boyd	30.60
W/R/T	David Njoku	0.00	David Njoku	0.00
K	Greg Zuerlein	8.00	Greg Zuerlein	8.00
DEF	49ers	11.84	49ers	11.84

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Boyd, 30.60 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kenyan Drake scored 23.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 23 – 29, 2018

Demich

131.10

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Adam

110.31

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.20 points left. Optimal 150.30 vs. actual 131.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Mitchell Trubisky	21.90	Mitchell Trubisky	21.90
WR	Michael Crabtree	6.10	Randall Cobb	8.00
WR	Demaryius Thomas	6.00	Michael Crabtree	6.10
RB	David Johnson	14.00	David Johnson	14.00
RB	Jordan Howard	14.10	Jordan Howard	14.10
TE	Travis Kelce	19.90	Travis Kelce	19.90
W/R/T	Chris Thompson	4.20	DeVante Parker	21.40
W/R/T	Marlon Mack	30.90	Marlon Mack	30.90
K	Cody Parkey	6.00	Cody Parkey	6.00
DEF	Cardinals	8.00	Cardinals	8.00

Carried by One Guy: Marlon Mack, 30.90 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.10 points left. Optimal 128.41 vs. actual 110.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	15.76	Tom Brady	15.76
WR	Golden Tate	12.30	Golden Tate	12.30
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	26.20	DeAndre Hopkins	26.20
RB	Doug Martin	8.90	Doug Martin	8.90
RB	Latavius Murray	20.50	Latavius Murray	20.50
TE	Vance McDonald	7.70	Vance McDonald	7.70
W/R/T	Kenjon Barner	0.40	Paul Richardson	6.10
W/R/T	Kenny Golladay	2.20	Wendell Smallwood	14.60
K	Chris Boswell	8.00	Chris Boswell	8.00
DEF	Panthers	8.35	Panthers	8.35

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 26.20 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Marlon Mack scored 30.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 23 – 29, 2018

Krajcik

114.26

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Kev

182.52

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.30 points left. Optimal 114.56 vs. actual 114.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	15.94	Aaron Rodgers	15.94
WR	Danny Amendola	14.42	Alshon Jeffery	7.50
WR	Alshon Jeffery	7.50	Danny Amendola	14.42
RB	Matt Breida	4.20	Mike Davis	4.50
RB	Kerryon Johnson	15.10	Kerryon Johnson	15.10
TE	Rob Gronkowski	7.30	Rob Gronkowski	7.30
W/R/T	Josh Gordon	8.20	Josh Gordon	8.20
W/R/T	Jalen Richard	14.40	Jalen Richard	14.40
K	Stephen Gostkowski	12.00	Stephen Gostkowski	12.00
DEF	Commanders	15.20	Commanders	15.20

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 15.94 points (14.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 182.52 vs. actual 182.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	23.42	Russell Wilson	23.42
WR	Antonio Brown	25.40	Antonio Brown	25.40
WR	Mike Evans	31.90	Mike Evans	31.90
RB	Adrian Peterson	28.60	Tarik Cohen	18.72
RB	Tarik Cohen	18.72	Adrian Peterson	28.60
TE	Jordan Reed	10.80	Jordan Reed	10.80
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	12.90	Tyler Lockett	12.90
W/R/T	Jakeem Grant	8.18	Jakeem Grant	8.18
K	Sebastian Janikowski	4.00	Sebastian Janikowski	4.00
DEF	Bengals	18.60	Bengals	18.60

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 31.90 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 23 – 29, 2018

Fischer

97.98

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Niz

130.72

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.00 points left. Optimal 108.98 vs. actual 97.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	14.10	Baker Mayfield	14.10
WR	Doug Baldwin	4.60	Jermaine Kearse	6.00
WR	Adam Thielen	24.80	Adam Thielen	24.80
RB	Javorius Allen	10.80	Javorius Allen	10.80
RB	Raheem Mostert	1.80	Raheem Mostert	1.80
TE	O.J. Howard	16.80	O.J. Howard	16.80
W/R/T	Jermaine Kearse	6.00	Tre'Quan Smith	4.80
W/R/T	Tre'Quan Smith	4.80	Greg Olsen	15.60
K	Jake Elliott	6.00	Jake Elliott	6.00
DEF	Eagles	8.28	Eagles	8.28

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 24.80 points (25.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.40 points left. Optimal 144.12 vs. actual 130.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	6.80	Andy Dalton	20.20
WR	Donte Moncrief	9.40	Donte Moncrief	9.40
WR	Stefon Diggs	29.90	Stefon Diggs	29.90
RB	Alex Collins	12.30	Alex Collins	12.30
RB	Alvin Kamara	26.90	Alvin Kamara	26.90
TE	Kyle Rudolph	7.90	Kyle Rudolph	7.90
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	22.70	Chris Godwin Jr.	7.20
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	7.20	Julian Edelman	22.70
K	Mason Crosby	12.00	Mason Crosby	12.00
DEF	Ravens	-4.38	Ravens	-4.38

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 29.90 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 23 – 29, 2018

Big Hut

139.22

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Horgan

172.65

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.20 points left. Optimal 157.42 vs. actual 139.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	26.50	Jared Goff	26.50
WR	Will Fuller V	25.40	Marquise Goodwin	12.50
WR	Sterling Shepard	7.40	Will Fuller V	25.40
RB	Saquon Barkley	20.10	Saquon Barkley	20.10
RB	Nick Chubb	9.50	Nick Chubb	9.50
TE	Ricky Seals-Jones	3.20	Ricky Seals-Jones	3.20
W/R/T	Jordy Nelson	2.40	Sammy Watkins	32.70
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	32.70	LeSean McCoy	15.50
K	Matt Prater	2.00	Matt Prater	2.00
DEF	Chiefs	10.02	Chiefs	10.02

Carried by One Guy: Sammy Watkins, 32.70 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: James Conner scored 40.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 58.72 points left. Optimal 231.37 vs. actual 172.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	8.84	Cam Newton	27.96
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	9.10	Courtland Sutton	10.80
WR	Tyreek Hill	10.30	Larry Fitzgerald	28.20
RB	James White	25.40	James White	25.40
RB	Todd Gurley	35.50	Todd Gurley	35.50
TE	George Kittle	10.70	George Kittle	10.70
W/R/T	Geronimo Allison	2.40	James Conner	40.20
W/R/T	James Conner	40.20	Chris Carson	22.40
K	Dustin Hopkins	10.00	Dustin Hopkins	10.00
DEF	Patriots	20.21	Patriots	20.21

Carried by One Guy: James Conner, 40.20 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 23 – 29, 2018

Joe Shore

107.10

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Nevans

105.99

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.70 points left. Optimal 110.80 vs. actual 107.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	23.64	Carson Wentz	23.64
WR	T.Y. Hilton	4.40	T.Y. Hilton	4.40
WR	Robert Woods	12.00	Robert Woods	12.00
RB	Mark Ingram II	12.20	Mark Ingram II	12.20
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	16.60	Aaron Jones Sr.	16.60
TE	Jared Cook	17.40	Jared Cook	17.40
W/R/T	Willie Snead IV	10.40	Chris Ivory	5.50
W/R/T	Keelan Cole Sr.	1.80	Willie Snead IV	10.40
K	Dan Bailey	1.00	Dan Bailey	1.00
DEF	Rams	7.66	Rams	7.66

Carried by One Guy: Carson Wentz, 23.64 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.40 points left. Optimal 126.39 vs. actual 105.99.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	30.96	Deshaun Watson	30.96
WR	A.J. Green	18.60	A.J. Green	18.60
WR	Brandin Cooks	11.30	Brandin Cooks	11.30
RB	Isaiah Crowell	4.80	Isaiah Crowell	4.80
RB	Duke Johnson	3.60	Frank Gore	6.80
TE	Jimmy Graham	3.10	Jack Doyle	19.00
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	16.20	Chris Herndon	8.60
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	7.30	DeSean Jackson	16.20
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	6.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	6.00
DEF	Texans	4.13	Texans	4.13

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 30.96 points (29.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Carson Wentz scored 23.64; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–3	4.538	+3.0	+0.231	1 / 1
Miller	6–2	5.000	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Demich	4–4	4.385	-3.0	-0.231	0 / 2
Krajcik	1–7	2.846	-2.0	-0.154	0 / 2
Joe Shore	5–3	3.692	+10.0	+0.769	3 / 1
Kev	4–4	4.692	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Adam	2–6	2.308	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Martin	5–3	4.615	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Josh	4–4	4.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–8	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	4–4	3.000	+3.0	+0.231	3 / 1
Horgan	6–2	7.000	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	5–3	4.385	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Nevans	5–3	4.000	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0

2018 week 8 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Nevans lineup

Cumulative totals through week 8