2018 week 5 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 2 – 8, 2018

j-mart

109.44

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Kev

124.77

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.30 points left. Optimal 113.74 vs. actual 109.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	17.82	Patrick Mahomes	17.82
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	7.80	Marvin Jones Jr.	7.80
WR	Michael Thomas	11.40	Michael Thomas	11.40
RB	Lamar Miller	0.00	Chris Ivory	4.30
RB	Melvin Gordon III	22.00	Melvin Gordon III	22.00
TE	Ben Watson	7.00	Ben Watson	7.00
W/R/T	Pierre Garcon	9.70	Dede Westbrook	8.50
W/R/T	Dede Westbrook	8.50	Pierre Garcon	9.70
K	Harrison Butker	12.00	Harrison Butker	12.00
DEF	Vikings	13.22	Vikings	13.22

Carried by One Guy: Melvin Gordon III, 22.00 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Antonio Brown scored 30.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 124.77 vs. actual 124.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Blake Bortles	22.60	Blake Bortles	22.60
WR	Antonio Brown	30.10	Antonio Brown	30.10
WR	Tyler Lockett	20.88	Tyler Lockett	20.88
RB	Adrian Peterson	6.20	Royce Freeman	7.70
RB	Royce Freeman	7.70	Adrian Peterson	6.20
TE	Jordan Reed	3.10	Jordan Reed	3.10
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	5.60	Derrick Henry	5.60
W/R/T	Chester Rogers	15.36	Chester Rogers	15.36
K	Robbie Gould	0.00	Robbie Gould	0.00
DEF	Browns	13.23	Browns	13.23

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 30.10 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 2 – 8, 2018

Miller

153.55

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

110.89

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.00 points left. Optimal 168.55 vs. actual 153.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	24.60	Andrew Luck	24.60
WR	Davante Adams	31.00	Davante Adams	31.00
WR	Jamison Crowder	9.50	Christian Kirk	18.00
RB	Kareem Hunt	16.40	Kareem Hunt	16.40
RB	Phillip Lindsay	11.64	Phillip Lindsay	11.64
TE	Austin Hooper	16.70	Austin Hooper	16.70
W/R/T	Carlos Hyde	9.70	Carlos Hyde	9.70
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	18.00	Kenyan Drake	24.50
K	Wil Lutz	7.00	Wil Lutz	7.00
DEF	Jets	9.01	Jets	9.01

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 31.00 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.44 points left. Optimal 121.33 vs. actual 110.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	14.40	Jared Goff	16.34
WR	Robert Woods	19.50	Robert Woods	19.50
WR	Amari Cooper	2.00	Willie Snead IV	10.50
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	15.40	Ezekiel Elliott	15.40
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	7.90	Aaron Jones Sr.	7.90
TE	Jared Cook	6.00	Jared Cook	6.00
W/R/T	Mark Ingram II	21.30	Mark Ingram II	21.30
W/R/T	Keelan Cole Sr.	11.00	Keelan Cole Sr.	11.00
K	Dan Bailey	12.00	Dan Bailey	12.00
DEF	Rams	1.39	Rams	1.39

Carried by One Guy: Mark Ingram II, 21.30 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 2 – 8, 2018

Demich

152.22

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

128.21

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.48 points left. Optimal 158.70 vs. actual 152.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	15.22	Matthew Stafford	15.22
WR	Michael Crabtree	12.60	Demaryius Thomas	23.50
WR	Demaryius Thomas	23.50	Michael Crabtree	12.60
RB	Chris Thompson	12.20	Chris Thompson	12.20
RB	David Johnson	21.10	David Johnson	21.10
TE	Travis Kelce	17.00	Travis Kelce	17.00
W/R/T	Tyrell Williams	9.60	Tyrell Williams	9.60
W/R/T	Taywan Taylor	4.00	Jakeem Grant	10.48
K	Ryan Succop	15.00	Ryan Succop	15.00
DEF	Cardinals	22.00	Cardinals	22.00

Carried by One Guy: Demaryius Thomas, 23.50 points (15.4% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.00 points left. Optimal 141.21 vs. actual 128.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	30.68	Aaron Rodgers	30.68
WR	Julio Jones	11.20	Julio Jones	11.20
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	2.10	Albert Wilson	9.30
RB	Matt Breida	13.10	Matt Breida	13.10
RB	Kerryon Johnson	10.50	Kerryon Johnson	10.50
TE	Rob Gronkowski	13.50	Rob Gronkowski	13.50
W/R/T	Alshon Jeffery	5.90	Josh Gordon	13.00
W/R/T	Josh Gordon	13.00	Jalen Richard	11.70
K	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00
DEF	Steelers	19.23	Steelers	19.23

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 30.68 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 2 – 8, 2018

Fischer

78.26

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

137.18

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.40 points left. Optimal 92.66 vs. actual 78.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Alex Smith	13.70	Alex Smith	13.70
WR	Kenny Stills	3.70	Kenny Stills	3.70
WR	Adam Thielen	26.60	Adam Thielen	26.60
RB	Theo Riddick	4.30	Theo Riddick	4.30
RB	Javorius Allen	11.80	Javorius Allen	11.80
TE	Ricky Seals-Jones	0.00	Ricky Seals-Jones	0.00
W/R/T	Doug Baldwin	1.10	Duke Johnson	5.20
W/R/T	Duke Johnson	5.20	Mike Davis	15.50
K	Jake Elliott	6.00	Jake Elliott	6.00
DEF	Eagles	5.86	Eagles	5.86

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 26.60 points (34.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.78 points left. Optimal 159.96 vs. actual 137.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	23.00	Deshaun Watson	23.00
WR	A.J. Green	19.20	A.J. Green	19.20
WR	Brandin Cooks	0.00	Mohamed Sanu	17.30
RB	Frank Gore	6.30	Isaiah Crowell	32.10
RB	Isaiah Crowell	32.10	Frank Gore	6.30
TE	Jimmy Graham	13.60	Jimmy Graham	13.60
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	17.30	LeGarrette Blount	14.20
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	13.40	JuJu Smith-Schuster	13.40
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	9.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	9.00
DEF	Broncos	3.28	Chargers	11.86

Carried by One Guy: Isaiah Crowell, 32.10 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 2 – 8, 2018

Josh

201.44

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

116.42

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.10 points left. Optimal 204.54 vs. actual 201.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	23.36	Philip Rivers	23.36
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	34.20	Odell Beckham Jr.	34.20
WR	Cooper Kupp	21.00	Cooper Kupp	21.00
RB	T.J. Yeldon	26.20	T.J. Yeldon	26.20
RB	Sony Michel	18.52	Sony Michel	18.52
TE	Eric Ebron	33.50	Eric Ebron	33.50
W/R/T	John Brown	9.80	Joe Mixon	20.50
W/R/T	Joe Mixon	20.50	Austin Ekeler	12.90
K	Justin Tucker	9.00	Justin Tucker	9.00
DEF	Jaguars	5.36	Jaguars	5.36

Carried by One Guy: Odell Beckham Jr., 34.20 points (17.0% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.74 points left. Optimal 128.16 vs. actual 116.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	21.60	Carson Wentz	23.04
WR	Will Fuller V	3.50	Sammy Watkins	13.80
WR	Sterling Shepard	12.04	Sterling Shepard	12.04
RB	Devonta Freeman	6.10	Devonta Freeman	6.10
RB	Saquon Barkley	28.90	Saquon Barkley	28.90
TE	Jesse James	4.00	Jesse James	4.00
W/R/T	Jordy Nelson	14.30	Jordy Nelson	14.30
W/R/T	LeSean McCoy	12.80	LeSean McCoy	12.80
K	Matt Prater	7.00	Matt Prater	7.00
DEF	Giants	6.18	Giants	6.18

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 28.90 points (24.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 2 – 8, 2018

Martin

124.48

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

171.08

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.60 points left. Optimal 161.08 vs. actual 124.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	16.14	Kirk Cousins	16.14
WR	Jarvis Landry	11.90	Jarvis Landry	11.90
WR	Tyler Boyd	8.40	Robbie Chosen	29.30
RB	Christian McCaffrey	20.30	Christian McCaffrey	20.30
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	16.00	Nyheim Miller-Hines	16.00
TE	Zach Ertz	29.00	Zach Ertz	29.00
W/R/T	Devin Funchess	9.30	Alfred Blue	19.90
W/R/T	Calvin Ridley	7.80	David Njoku	12.90
K	Brandon McManus	4.00	Brandon McManus	4.00
DEF	49ers	1.64	49ers	1.64

Carried by One Guy: Zach Ertz, 29.00 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.26 points left. Optimal 188.34 vs. actual 171.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	16.38	Cam Newton	16.38
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	16.20	Emmanuel Sanders	16.20
WR	Tyreek Hill	12.74	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	19.80
RB	James White	23.70	James White	23.70
RB	Todd Gurley	33.30	Todd Gurley	33.30
TE	George Kittle	13.30	George Kittle	13.30
W/R/T	Larry Fitzgerald	5.50	James Conner	36.50
W/R/T	James Conner	36.50	Chris Carson	15.70
K	Matt Bryant	6.00	Matt Bryant	6.00
DEF	Patriots	7.46	Patriots	7.46

Carried by One Guy: James Conner, 36.50 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 2 – 8, 2018

Adam

125.16

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Niz

122.21

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.60 points left. Optimal 149.76 vs. actual 125.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	29.54	Tom Brady	29.54
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	24.10	DeAndre Hopkins	24.10
WR	Keenan Allen	17.50	Keenan Allen	17.50
RB	Marshawn Lynch	6.10	Alfred Morris	12.10
RB	Latavius Murray	7.60	Wendell Smallwood	18.10
TE	Vance McDonald	1.60	Vance McDonald	1.60
W/R/T	Golden Tate	9.20	Kenny Golladay	19.80
W/R/T	Kenny Golladay	19.80	Keke Coutee	17.30
K	Josh Lambo	2.00	Josh Lambo	2.00
DEF	Titans	7.72	Titans	7.72

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 29.54 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.10 points left. Optimal 130.31 vs. actual 122.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	29.72	Drew Brees	29.72
WR	Stefon Diggs	21.60	Donte Moncrief	13.60
WR	Mike Williams	7.80	Stefon Diggs	21.60
RB	Alex Collins	7.60	Alex Collins	7.60
RB	Alvin Kamara	6.90	Jamaal Williams	9.20
TE	Kyle Rudolph	9.10	Kyle Rudolph	9.10
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	13.10	Ryan Grant	11.80
W/R/T	Ryan Grant	11.80	Julian Edelman	13.10
K	Mason Crosby	3.00	Mason Crosby	3.00
DEF	Ravens	11.59	Ravens	11.59

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 29.72 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tom Brady scored 29.54; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–2	2.308	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Miller	3–2	2.615	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Demich	1–4	2.231	-3.0	-0.231	0 / 2
Krajcik	0–5	1.538	-2.0	-0.154	0 / 2
Joe Shore	3–2	2.846	+4.0	+0.308	1 / 1
Kev	3–2	2.462	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Adam	2–3	2.077	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Martin	3–2	2.692	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Josh	3–2	3.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–5	0.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	2–3	1.615	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Horgan	3–2	4.077	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	4–1	3.231	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Nevans	5–0	3.231	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0

2018 week 5 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Niz lineup

Cumulative totals through week 5