2017 season ledger
Actual results beside all-play expectation, schedule counterfactuals, weekly receipts, rivalries, and archived player evidence.
Actual and all-play standings
All-play is a score comparison, not a prediction of skill.
| Manager | W–L | PF | Expected wins | Luck points | Luck in wins | Lucky | Unlucky | All-play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horgan | 12–1 | 1682.29 | 9.818 | +0.5 | +0.045 | 1 | 0 | 75.5% |
| Kev | 10–3 | 1642.25 | 9.409 | -5.5 | -0.500 | 1 | 2 | 72.4% |
| Josh | 7–6 | 1515.23 | 7.455 | +1.5 | +0.136 | 1 | 2 | 57.3% |
| Miller | 7–6 | 1440.79 | 6.182 | +3.0 | +0.273 | 2 | 2 | 47.6% |
| Martin | 7–6 | 1314.63 | 4.773 | +7.0 | +0.636 | 4 | 0 | 36.7% |
| Demich | 7–6 | 1249.66 | 3.909 | +9.5 | +0.864 | 5 | 0 | 30.1% |
| Joe Shore | 6–7 | 1583.59 | 8.818 | -11.5 | -1.045 | 2 | 5 | 67.8% |
| Krajcik | 6–7 | 1509.56 | 7.364 | -5.0 | -0.455 | 0 | 2 | 56.6% |
| Fischer | 5–8 | 1333.43 | 5.364 | -2.0 | -0.182 | 0 | 2 | 41.3% |
| j-mart | 4–9 | 1514.39 | 7.000 | -4.5 | -0.409 | 1 | 4 | 53.8% |
| Big Hut | 4–9 | 1244.40 | 3.636 | +3.5 | +0.318 | 3 | 0 | 28.0% |
| Adam | 3–10 | 1250.90 | 4.273 | -1.5 | -0.136 | 0 | 1 | 32.9% |
All-play order
- Horgan — 9.818 expected wins; 108–35–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Kev — 9.409 expected wins; 103–39–1 across weekly score comparisons.
- Joe Shore — 8.818 expected wins; 97–46–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Josh — 7.455 expected wins; 82–61–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Krajcik — 7.364 expected wins; 81–62–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- j-mart — 7.000 expected wins; 77–66–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Miller — 6.182 expected wins; 68–75–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Fischer — 5.364 expected wins; 59–84–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Martin — 4.773 expected wins; 52–90–1 across weekly score comparisons.
- Adam — 4.273 expected wins; 47–96–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Demich — 3.909 expected wins; 43–100–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Big Hut — 3.636 expected wins; 40–103–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Latest weekly receipts
All exact ties share the award.
Robbery of the Week
No robbery this week.
Get Out of Jail Free
No escape this week.
Cumulative luck in wins
Normalized before totals are compared across league sizes.
| Manager | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.64 | -0.64 | -0.41 | -0.41 | -0.41 | -0.41 |
| Demich | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.27 | +0.59 | +0.59 | +0.82 | +0.86 | +0.86 |
| Kev | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.73 | -0.73 | -0.73 | -0.73 | -0.73 | -0.73 | -0.73 | -0.73 | -0.50 | -0.50 |
| Miller | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.36 | +0.36 | +0.32 | +0.27 | +0.27 |
| Martin | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.36 | +0.59 | +0.59 | +0.59 | +0.59 | +0.59 | +0.59 | +0.64 | +0.64 | +0.64 |
| Josh | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | +0.27 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 |
| Big Hut | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Fischer | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.18 | -0.18 |
| Krajcik | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.45 | -0.45 | -0.45 | -0.45 | -0.45 | -0.45 | -0.45 | -0.45 |
| Horgan | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 |
| Adam | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 |
| Joe Shore | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.09 | +0.09 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.27 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.64 | -1.05 | -1.05 | -1.05 |
Schedule Swap
Each score stays in its original week. Only the schedule owner changes.
| Source team | Best owner | Record | Worst owner | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Kev | 8–5 (+4.0) | j-mart | 4–9 (0.0) |
| Demich | Demich | 7–6 (0.0) | Joe Shore | 3–10 (-4.0) |
| Kev | Miller | 11–2 (+1.0) | Joe Shore | 7–6 (-3.0) |
| Miller | Demich | 9–4 (+2.0) | Josh | 3–10 (-4.0) |
| Martin | Demich | 7–6 (0.0) | Adam | 3–10 (-4.0) |
| Josh | Demich | 10–3 (+3.0) | Joe Shore | 5–8 (-2.0) |
| Big Hut | Demich | 5–8 (+1.0) | j-mart | 2–11 (-2.0) |
| Fischer | Demich | 8–5 (+3.0) | Joe Shore | 3–10 (-2.0) |
| Krajcik | Miller | 9–4 (+3.0) | Joe Shore | 4–9 (-2.0) |
| Horgan | Horgan | 12–1 (0.0) | Joe Shore | 8–5 (-4.0) |
| Adam | Horgan | 6–7 (+3.0) | j-mart | 3–10 (0.0) |
| Joe Shore | Fischer | 11–2 (+5.0) | Joe Shore | 6–7 (0.0) |
Everybody's Super Bowl
Opponent score minus that opponent's mean in other eligible weeks. Each baseline needs two other weeks.
| Manager | Mean excess | Meetings | Largest receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | +8.41 pts | 13 | Joe Shore: +39.35 pts |
| Demich | -15.63 pts | 13 | Kev: +19.97 pts |
| Kev | -5.90 pts | 13 | Adam: +33.55 pts |
| Miller | +0.59 pts | 13 | Horgan: +24.16 pts |
| Martin | -6.30 pts | 13 | Adam: +44.73 pts |
| Josh | +11.71 pts | 13 | Big Hut: +38.30 pts |
| Big Hut | -3.77 pts | 13 | Fischer: +37.48 pts |
| Fischer | -3.96 pts | 13 | Josh: +29.91 pts |
| Krajcik | +7.01 pts | 13 | Josh: +36.38 pts |
| Horgan | -5.73 pts | 13 | Krajcik: +23.37 pts |
| Adam | -0.75 pts | 13 | Fischer: +29.92 pts |
| Joe Shore | +14.32 pts | 13 | Martin: +49.94 pts |
Cupcake Schedule / Murderers' Row
Opponent percentile excludes both the focal team and the opponent. Higher means harder.
| Manager | Difficulty | Games | PA/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 57.7% | 13 | 118.17 |
| Demich | 33.8% | 13 | 98.76 |
| Kev | 47.7% | 13 | 103.46 |
| Miller | 50.8% | 13 | 111.63 |
| Martin | 41.5% | 13 | 107.54 |
| Josh | 64.2% | 13 | 120.92 |
| Big Hut | 46.2% | 13 | 108.67 |
| Fischer | 42.7% | 13 | 107.04 |
| Krajcik | 56.2% | 13 | 116.54 |
| Horgan | 41.5% | 13 | 103.32 |
| Adam | 50.0% | 13 | 112.40 |
| Joe Shore | 67.7% | 13 | 120.86 |
Heart Attack Club
A close game has a margin of 5.00 points or less, inclusive.
| Manager | Close record | Games | Win-credit rate | Closest win | Closest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 1–2 | 3 | 33.3% | 2.87 | 1.71 |
| Demich | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Kev | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Miller | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.36 | None |
| Martin | 2–1 | 3 | 66.7% | 2.91 | 2.36 |
| Josh | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 4.32 |
| Big Hut | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 4.06 |
| Fischer | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Krajcik | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 1.71 | 4.32 |
| Horgan | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Adam | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 4.32 | None |
| Joe Shore | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 4.06 | 2.87 |
Paper Tiger / Wasted Talent
Actual win-credit rate against all-play win rate. The diagonal means equality.
| Manager | Actual | All-play | Gap | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 30.8% | 53.8% | -23.1 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Demich | 53.8% | 30.1% | +23.8 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Kev | 76.9% | 72.4% | +4.5 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Miller | 53.8% | 47.6% | +6.3 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Martin | 53.8% | 36.7% | +17.1 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Josh | 53.8% | 57.3% | -3.5 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Big Hut | 30.8% | 28.0% | +2.8 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Fischer | 38.5% | 41.3% | -2.8 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Krajcik | 46.2% | 56.6% | -10.5 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Horgan | 92.3% | 75.5% | +16.8 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Adam | 23.1% | 32.9% | -9.8 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Joe Shore | 46.2% | 67.8% | -21.7 pp | Wasted Talent |
The Roller Coaster
Population standard deviation of weekly all-play percentile. Two weeks required.
| Manager | Volatility | Mean percentile | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 23.5 pp | 53.8% | 13 |
| Demich | 27.5 pp | 30.1% | 13 |
| Kev | 27.2 pp | 72.4% | 13 |
| Miller | 23.2 pp | 47.6% | 13 |
| Martin | 28.0 pp | 36.7% | 13 |
| Josh | 30.3 pp | 57.3% | 13 |
| Big Hut | 19.7 pp | 28.0% | 13 |
| Fischer | 34.3 pp | 41.3% | 13 |
| Krajcik | 30.7 pp | 56.6% | 13 |
| Horgan | 20.9 pp | 75.5% | 13 |
| Adam | 31.2 pp | 32.9% | 13 |
| Joe Shore | 24.3 pp | 67.8% | 13 |
Nemesis / Has Their Number
Stable-manager regular-season records. Postseason is kept separate on manager pages.
| Manager | Nemesis | Record | Has Their Number | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Demich | 0–2 | Big Hut | 1–0 |
| Demich | Kev | 0–1 | j-mart | 2–0 |
| Kev | Joe Shore | 0–1 | Demich | 1–0 |
| Miller | Horgan | 0–2 | Adam | 2–0 |
| Martin | Horgan | 0–2 | Josh | 1–0 |
| Josh | Kev | 0–1 | Krajcik | 2–0 |
| Big Hut | Joe Shore | 0–2 | Josh | 1–0 |
| Fischer | Horgan | 0–1 | Adam | 1–0 |
| Krajcik | Josh | 0–2 | Fischer | 1–0 |
| Horgan | Kev | 0–1 | Martin | 2–0 |
| Adam | Miller | 0–2 | Martin | 1–0 |
| Joe Shore | Horgan | 0–1 | Big Hut | 2–0 |
Archived player statistics
Hindsight lineup using the archived roster and Yahoo-reported position eligibility; not a reconstruction of kickoff-time options.
Tinker Failures
| Manager | Points left | Avoidable losses | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 126.06 | 3 | |
| Demich | 134.38 | 1 | |
| Kev | 102.36 | 1 | |
| Miller | 167.24 | 1 | |
| Martin | 124.33 | 1 | |
| Josh | 113.40 | 0 | |
| Big Hut | 229.38 | 4 | |
| Fischer | 194.65 | 2 | |
| Krajcik | 231.68 | 3 | |
| Horgan | 239.20 | 0 | |
| Adam | 152.00 | 1 | |
| Joe Shore | 237.89 | 3 |
Carried by One Guy
| Manager | Leading player | Share | Positive starter points | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Kirk Cousins | 15.3% | 1519.39 | |
| Demich | Matt Ryan | 14.3% | 1255.30 | |
| Kev | Carson Wentz | 11.4% | 1642.25 | 13 weeks
|
| Miller | Russell Wilson | 19.8% | 1443.65 | 13 weeks
|
| Martin | Marvin Jones Jr. | 12.2% | 1314.63 | 13 weeks
|
| Josh | A.J. Green | 11.2% | 1518.39 | 13 weeks |
| Big Hut | Leonard Fournette | 12.4% | 1249.45 | 13 weeks
|
| Fischer | Adam Thielen | 12.3% | 1333.43 | |
| Krajcik | Antonio Brown | 16.2% | 1509.75 | 13 weeks |
| Horgan | Tom Brady | 14.9% | 1686.04 | |
| Adam | Dak Prescott | 15.0% | 1253.18 | 13 weeks |
| Joe Shore | Alvin Kamara | 11.1% | 1585.27 |
Opponent's Final Boss
| Manager | Leading opponent | Damage | Leader encounters | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Julio Jones | 387.28 | 2 | |
| Demich | Tom Brady | 85.50 | 1 | |
| Kev | Jaguars | 137.04 | 1 | |
| Miller | Antonio Brown | 84.75 | 1 | |
| Martin | Russell Wilson | 123.03 | 1 | |
| Josh | Dak Prescott | 80.13 | 1 | |
| Big Hut | Kareem Hunt | 125.00 | 1 | |
| Fischer | Kareem Hunt | 132.66 | 1 | |
| Krajcik | Le'Veon Bell | 170.73 | 1 | |
| Horgan | No single-player result flip | 0.00 | 0 | 1 week
|
| Adam | Kirk Cousins | 40.12 | 1 | |
| Joe Shore | Kirk Cousins | 192.34 | 1 |
Postseason scorecards
Actual participants only. These scores do not enter regular-season luck.