2017 week 13 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 28 – Dec 4, 2017

j-mart

108.52

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Kev

121.23

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.46 points left. Optimal 110.98 vs. actual 108.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	12.64	Kirk Cousins	12.64
WR	Ted Ginn Jr.	4.30	Alshon Jeffery	8.10
WR	Alshon Jeffery	8.10	Martavis Bryant	6.76
WR	Michael Thomas	15.50	Michael Thomas	15.50
RB	Melvin Gordon III	12.60	Melvin Gordon III	12.60
RB	Alex Collins	22.80	Alex Collins	22.80
TE	Vernon Davis	2.50	Vernon Davis	2.50
W/R/T	Aaron Jones Sr.	8.00	Aaron Jones Sr.	8.00
K	Stephen Hauschka	4.00	Stephen Hauschka	4.00
DEF	Ravens	18.08	Ravens	18.08

Carried by One Guy: Alex Collins, 22.80 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Mark Ingram II scored 21.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.90 points left. Optimal 129.13 vs. actual 121.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	18.92	Carson Wentz	18.92
WR	Devin Funchess	14.00	T.Y. Hilton	12.60
WR	Stefon Diggs	4.70	Devin Funchess	14.00
WR	Sterling Shepard	7.10	Sterling Shepard	7.10
RB	LeSean McCoy	11.20	Mark Ingram II	21.20
RB	Mark Ingram II	21.20	LeSean McCoy	11.20
TE	Kyle Rudolph	11.60	Kyle Rudolph	11.60
W/R/T	Orleans Darkwa	9.60	Orleans Darkwa	9.60
K	Chris Boswell	11.00	Chris Boswell	11.00
DEF	Chargers	11.91	Chargers	11.91

Carried by One Guy: Mark Ingram II, 21.20 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 28 – Dec 4, 2017

Josh

150.14

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

113.79

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.80 points left. Optimal 159.94 vs. actual 150.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	19.56	Philip Rivers	19.56
WR	A.J. Green	23.20	A.J. Green	23.20
WR	Brandin Cooks	3.20	Robbie Chosen	17.40
WR	Robbie Chosen	17.40	Dede Westbrook	10.80
RB	Derrick Henry	18.90	Derrick Henry	18.90
RB	Christian McCaffrey	13.40	Christian McCaffrey	13.40
TE	Travis Kelce	23.40	Travis Kelce	23.40
W/R/T	Dede Westbrook	10.80	C.J. Anderson	13.00
K	Ryan Succop	7.00	Ryan Succop	7.00
DEF	Patriots	13.28	Patriots	13.28

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 23.40 points (15.6% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.98 points left. Optimal 144.77 vs. actual 113.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	14.46	Alex Smith	39.64
WR	DeSean Jackson	3.40	Antonio Brown	22.10
WR	Antonio Brown	22.10	Mohamed Sanu	5.80
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	12.00	DeAndre Hopkins	12.00
RB	Jerick McKinnon	13.70	Latavius Murray	11.20
RB	Kareem Hunt	7.80	Jerick McKinnon	13.70
TE	Hunter Henry	11.60	Hunter Henry	11.60
W/R/T	Dion Lewis	9.20	Dion Lewis	9.20
K	Justin Tucker	17.00	Justin Tucker	17.00
DEF	Eagles	2.53	Eagles	2.53

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 22.10 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 28 – Dec 4, 2017

Big Hut

79.20

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

137.17

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.72 points left. Optimal 110.92 vs. actual 79.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Case Keenum	16.98	Jameis Winston	18.60
WR	Demaryius Thomas	3.70	Demaryius Thomas	3.70
WR	Kenny Stills	16.30	Kenny Stills	16.30
WR	Mike Evans	4.30	Mike Evans	4.30
RB	Leonard Fournette	15.40	Leonard Fournette	15.40
RB	Joe Mixon	4.70	Tarik Cohen	13.80
TE	Jared Cook	1.40	Delanie Walker	14.80
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	0.00	Jamaal Charles	7.60
K	Stephen Gostkowski	13.00	Stephen Gostkowski	13.00
DEF	Giants	3.42	Giants	3.42

Carried by One Guy: Case Keenum, 16.98 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.00 points left. Optimal 145.17 vs. actual 137.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	15.38	Derek Carr	15.38
WR	Jermaine Kearse	22.20	Dontrelle Inman	9.10
WR	Adam Thielen	7.10	Jermaine Kearse	22.20
WR	Nelson Agholor	25.60	Nelson Agholor	25.60
RB	Todd Gurley	18.80	Bilal Powell	12.00
RB	Samaje Perine	8.40	Todd Gurley	18.80
TE	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	1.70	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	1.70
W/R/T	DeMarco Murray	8.90	Sammy Watkins	11.30
K	Jake Elliott	3.00	Jake Elliott	3.00
DEF	Rams	26.09	Rams	26.09

Carried by One Guy: Rams, 26.09 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 28 – Dec 4, 2017

Martin

97.89

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

133.05

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.64 points left. Optimal 104.53 vs. actual 97.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	18.30	Marcus Mariota	18.30
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	11.00	Marvin Jones Jr.	11.00
WR	Marqise Lee	18.10	Marqise Lee	18.10
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	3.70	Jeremy Maclin	6.10
RB	Lamar Miller	11.40	Lamar Miller	11.40
RB	Duke Johnson	2.44	Byron Marshall	6.68
TE	Evan Engram	19.40	Evan Engram	19.40
W/R/T	Seth Roberts	7.10	Seth Roberts	7.10
K	Kai Forbath	2.00	Kai Forbath	2.00
DEF	Steelers	4.45	Steelers	4.45

Carried by One Guy: Evan Engram, 19.40 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyreek Hill scored 35.98; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 38.48 points left. Optimal 171.53 vs. actual 133.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	8.32	Tom Brady	8.32
WR	DeVante Parker	1.00	DeVante Parker	1.00
WR	Josh Doctson	10.10	Josh Doctson	10.10
WR	Tyreek Hill	35.98	Tyreek Hill	35.98
RB	Marshawn Lynch	21.10	Le'Veon Bell	28.70
RB	Le'Veon Bell	28.70	Rex Burkhead	24.14
TE	Rob Gronkowski	21.20	Rob Gronkowski	21.20
W/R/T	Zach Ertz	3.40	Kenyan Drake	23.60
K	Wil Lutz	7.00	Wil Lutz	7.00
DEF	Chiefs	-3.75	Seahawks	11.49

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 35.98 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 28 – Dec 4, 2017

Miller

132.08

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Adam

94.89

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.20 points left. Optimal 150.28 vs. actual 132.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	24.18	Russell Wilson	24.18
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	20.80	Marquise Goodwin	13.90
WR	Davante Adams	6.20	Jamison Crowder	7.28
WR	Jamison Crowder	7.28	Larry Fitzgerald	20.80
RB	Devonta Freeman	8.60	Devonta Freeman	8.60
RB	Jamaal Williams	21.30	Jamaal Williams	21.30
TE	Julius Thomas	9.50	Julius Thomas	9.50
W/R/T	Jay Ajayi	6.10	Matt Forte	16.60
K	Greg Zuerlein	14.00	Greg Zuerlein	14.00
DEF	Broncos	14.12	Broncos	14.12

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 24.18 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.90 points left. Optimal 100.79 vs. actual 94.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	14.88	Dak Prescott	14.88
WR	Doug Baldwin	10.90	Doug Baldwin	10.90
WR	Zay Jones	3.20	Cooper Kupp	9.30
WR	Cooper Kupp	9.30	Jordy Nelson	4.20
RB	Alfred Morris	20.70	Alfred Morris	20.70
RB	Jordan Howard	3.80	Rodney Smith	8.70
TE	Tyler Kroft	4.00	Tyler Kroft	4.00
W/R/T	Theo Riddick	14.70	Theo Riddick	14.70
K	Graham Gano	3.00	Graham Gano	3.00
DEF	Titans	10.41	Titans	10.41

Carried by One Guy: Alfred Morris, 20.70 points (21.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 28 – Dec 4, 2017

Demich

55.18

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

137.08

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.58 points left. Optimal 77.76 vs. actual 55.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	7.02	Matt Ryan	7.02
WR	Julio Jones	3.40	Josh Gordon	10.50
WR	Jarvis Landry	8.60	Jarvis Landry	8.60
WR	Corey Davis	2.20	Tyler Lockett	9.68
RB	Devontae Booker	1.30	Andre Ellington	7.70
RB	Peyton Barber	18.30	Peyton Barber	18.30
TE	Jason Witten	7.30	Jason Witten	7.30
W/R/T	Josh Gordon	10.50	Mike Davis	12.10
K	Matt Prater	1.00	Matt Prater	1.00
DEF	Lions	-4.44	Lions	-4.44

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Barber, 18.30 points (30.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.60 points left. Optimal 152.68 vs. actual 137.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	20.42	Cam Newton	20.42
WR	Dez Bryant	14.60	Dez Bryant	14.60
WR	Golden Tate	10.90	Golden Tate	10.90
WR	Keenan Allen	23.50	Keenan Allen	23.50
RB	Carlos Hyde	8.10	Alvin Kamara	27.10
RB	Alvin Kamara	27.10	Jonathan Stewart	10.50
TE	Jimmy Graham	10.10	Jimmy Graham	10.10
W/R/T	Jacquizz Rodgers	2.90	Mike Wallace	16.10
K	Harrison Butker	7.00	Harrison Butker	7.00
DEF	Jaguars	12.46	Jaguars	12.46

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 27.10 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–9	7.000	-4.5	-0.409	1 / 4
Demich	7–6	3.909	+9.5	+0.864	5 / 0
Kev	10–3	9.409	-5.5	-0.500	1 / 2
Miller	7–6	6.182	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 2
Martin	7–6	4.773	+7.0	+0.636	4 / 0
Josh	7–6	7.455	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 2
Big Hut	4–9	3.636	+3.5	+0.318	3 / 0
Fischer	5–8	5.364	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Krajcik	6–7	7.364	-5.0	-0.455	0 / 2
Horgan	12–1	9.818	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Adam	3–10	4.273	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Joe Shore	6–7	8.818	-11.5	-1.045	2 / 5

2017 week 13 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 13