2017 week 16 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 19 – 25, 2017

j-mart

106.26

Adam

73.75

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.80 points left. Optimal 119.06 vs. actual 106.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	22.76	Kirk Cousins	22.76
WR	Ted Ginn Jr.	17.00	Rishard Matthews	5.80
WR	Alshon Jeffery	0.00	Michael Thomas	8.60
WR	Michael Thomas	8.60	Ted Ginn Jr.	17.00
RB	Melvin Gordon III	20.30	Melvin Gordon III	20.30
RB	Alex Collins	8.10	Alex Collins	8.10
TE	Vernon Davis	11.20	Vernon Davis	11.20
W/R/T	Aaron Jones Sr.	1.30	Martavis Bryant	8.30
K	Stephen Hauschka	10.00	Stephen Hauschka	10.00
DEF	Ravens	7.00	Ravens	7.00

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 22.76 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.06 points left. Optimal 88.81 vs. actual 73.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	5.34	Dak Prescott	5.34
WR	Jordy Nelson	2.60	Doug Baldwin	11.50
WR	Doug Baldwin	11.50	Cooper Kupp	14.50
WR	Cooper Kupp	14.50	Jordy Nelson	2.60
RB	Alfred Morris	0.00	Jordan Howard	16.40
RB	Jordan Howard	16.40	Matt Breida	15.06
TE	Tyler Kroft	0.80	Tyler Kroft	0.80
W/R/T	Theo Riddick	5.40	Theo Riddick	5.40
K	Graham Gano	7.00	Graham Gano	7.00
DEF	Titans	10.21	Titans	10.21

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Howard, 16.40 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Consolation

Dec 19 – 25, 2017

Krajcik

122.20

Joe Shore

87.20

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.90 points left. Optimal 138.10 vs. actual 122.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	11.16	Alex Smith	19.46
WR	Michael Crabtree	0.00	Mohamed Sanu	5.10
WR	Mohamed Sanu	5.10	DeAndre Hopkins	14.50
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	14.50	Michael Crabtree	0.00
RB	Latavius Murray	8.00	Kareem Hunt	18.60
RB	Kareem Hunt	18.60	Frank Gore	15.60
TE	Jesse James	0.00	Jesse James	0.00
W/R/T	Dion Lewis	32.66	Dion Lewis	32.66
K	Justin Tucker	11.00	Justin Tucker	11.00
DEF	Eagles	21.18	Eagles	21.18

Carried by One Guy: Dion Lewis, 32.66 points (26.7% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.78 points left. Optimal 97.98 vs. actual 87.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Nick Foles	8.52	Cam Newton	15.60
WR	Dez Bryant	3.80	Dez Bryant	3.80
WR	Golden Tate	2.90	Keenan Allen	8.80
WR	Keenan Allen	8.80	Mike Wallace	8.00
RB	Carlos Hyde	14.80	Carlos Hyde	14.80
RB	Alvin Kamara	13.94	Alvin Kamara	13.94
TE	Jimmy Graham	6.80	Jimmy Graham	6.80
W/R/T	Mike Wallace	8.00	Jack Doyle	6.60
K	Harrison Butker	16.00	Harrison Butker	16.00
DEF	Jaguars	3.64	Jaguars	3.64

Carried by One Guy: Harrison Butker, 16.00 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 19 – 25, 2017

Demich

77.26

Miller

127.76

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.60 points left. Optimal 89.86 vs. actual 77.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	14.22	Matt Ryan	14.22
WR	Julio Jones	20.40	Julio Jones	20.40
WR	Josh Gordon	2.90	Jarvis Landry	5.60
WR	Jarvis Landry	5.60	Corey Davis	12.10
RB	Mike Davis	6.30	Ameer Abdullah	6.38
RB	Peyton Barber	6.50	Peyton Barber	6.50
TE	Jason Witten	6.40	Jason Witten	6.40
W/R/T	Robert Woods	4.80	Devontae Booker	8.12
K	Matt Prater	4.00	Matt Prater	4.00
DEF	Lions	6.14	Lions	6.14

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 20.40 points (26.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.30 points left. Optimal 152.06 vs. actual 127.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	14.62	Russell Wilson	14.62
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	25.24	Jamison Crowder	12.76
WR	Marquise Goodwin	5.20	Keelan Cole Sr.	15.80
WR	Jamison Crowder	12.76	Larry Fitzgerald	25.24
RB	Devonta Freeman	4.60	Giovani Bernard	28.30
RB	Jay Ajayi	12.30	Jay Ajayi	12.30
TE	Eric Ebron	16.80	Eric Ebron	16.80
W/R/T	Keelan Cole Sr.	15.80	Jamaal Williams	5.80
K	Dan Bailey	16.00	Dan Bailey	16.00
DEF	Broncos	4.44	Broncos	4.44

Carried by One Guy: Larry Fitzgerald, 25.24 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 19 – 25, 2017

Kev

118.27

Horgan

121.90

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.40 points left. Optimal 130.67 vs. actual 118.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Blake Bortles	24.38	Blake Bortles	24.38
WR	Devin Funchess	2.60	T.Y. Hilton	15.00
WR	Stefon Diggs	14.80	Stefon Diggs	14.80
WR	Sterling Shepard	7.00	Sterling Shepard	7.00
RB	LeSean McCoy	17.20	Mark Ingram II	14.10
RB	Mark Ingram II	14.10	LeSean McCoy	17.20
TE	Kyle Rudolph	1.10	Kyle Rudolph	1.10
W/R/T	Ezekiel Elliott	13.80	Ezekiel Elliott	13.80
K	Chris Boswell	10.00	Chris Boswell	10.00
DEF	Chargers	13.29	Chargers	13.29

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Blake Bortles, 24.38 points (20.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Le'Veon Bell scored 18.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.50 points left. Optimal 139.40 vs. actual 121.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	15.56	Tom Brady	15.56
WR	Kendall Wright	4.70	Amari Cooper	14.10
WR	Tyrell Williams	7.50	Josh Doctson	13.10
WR	Tyreek Hill	15.82	Tyreek Hill	15.82
RB	Le'Veon Bell	18.20	Le'Veon Bell	18.20
RB	Kenyan Drake	5.70	Marshawn Lynch	8.20
TE	Rob Gronkowski	15.20	Rob Gronkowski	15.20
W/R/T	Zach Ertz	12.60	Zach Ertz	12.60
K	Wil Lutz	12.00	Wil Lutz	12.00
DEF	Bears	14.62	Bears	14.62

Carried by One Guy: Le'Veon Bell, 18.20 points (14.9% of positive starter points).

2017 week 16 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Adam lineup

Consolation

Krajcik lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Playoff

Demich lineup

Miller lineup

Playoff

Kev lineup

Horgan lineup