2017 week 1 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 7 – 11, 2017

j-mart

107.13

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Demich

128.80

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.40 points left. Optimal 114.53 vs. actual 107.13.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	10.60	Kirk Cousins	10.60
WR	Alshon Jeffery	7.30	Alshon Jeffery	7.30
WR	Allen Robinson	2.20	Martavis Bryant	2.40
WR	Martavis Bryant	2.40	Ted Ginn Jr.	7.80
RB	Todd Gurley	18.10	Todd Gurley	18.10
RB	Melvin Gordon III	16.40	Melvin Gordon III	16.40
TE	Jordan Reed	6.10	Jordan Reed	6.10
W/R/T	Ted Ginn Jr.	7.80	Shane Vereen	9.60
K	Wil Lutz	11.00	Wil Lutz	11.00
DEF	Ravens	25.23	Ravens	25.23

Carried by One Guy: Ravens, 25.23 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.80 points left. Optimal 133.60 vs. actual 128.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	19.94	Matt Ryan	19.94
WR	Julio Jones	8.60	Julio Jones	8.60
WR	Amari Cooper	14.70	Amari Cooper	14.70
WR	Tyrell Williams	7.90	Tyrell Williams	7.90
RB	Ameer Abdullah	5.60	Ameer Abdullah	5.60
RB	Dalvin Cook	17.20	Dalvin Cook	17.20
TE	Jason Witten	15.40	Jason Witten	15.40
W/R/T	Matt Forte	5.10	Corey Davis	9.90
K	Dan Bailey	14.00	Dan Bailey	14.00
DEF	Steelers	20.36	Steelers	20.36

Carried by One Guy: Steelers, 20.36 points (15.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 7 – 11, 2017

Martin

99.92

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Krajcik

95.60

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.40 points left. Optimal 101.32 vs. actual 99.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	18.54	Aaron Rodgers	18.54
WR	Jeremy Maclin	12.60	Keenan Allen	12.00
WR	Keenan Allen	12.00	Sterling Shepard	8.50
WR	Jordan Matthews	7.10	Jeremy Maclin	12.60
RB	Lamar Miller	10.60	Lamar Miller	10.60
RB	David Johnson	10.00	David Johnson	10.00
TE	Greg Olsen	2.80	Greg Olsen	2.80
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	10.70	Marvin Jones Jr.	10.70
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Bills	9.58	Bills	9.58

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 18.54 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.06 points left. Optimal 100.66 vs. actual 95.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	15.64	Drew Brees	15.64
WR	Dez Bryant	5.30	Antonio Brown	25.70
WR	Antonio Brown	25.70	Mohamed Sanu	7.70
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	15.00	DeAndre Hopkins	15.00
RB	Frank Gore	5.70	Jerick McKinnon	8.36
RB	Darren Sproles	7.00	Darren Sproles	7.00
TE	Hunter Henry	0.00	Hunter Henry	0.00
W/R/T	Michael Crabtree	11.30	Michael Crabtree	11.30
K	Justin Tucker	6.00	Justin Tucker	6.00
DEF	Chiefs	3.96	Chiefs	3.96

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 25.70 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Rodgers scored 18.54; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 7 – 11, 2017

Josh

94.03

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

113.13

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.76 points left. Optimal 100.79 vs. actual 94.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	15.72	Philip Rivers	17.68
WR	A.J. Green	9.90	A.J. Green	9.90
WR	Brandin Cooks	10.30	Brandin Cooks	10.30
WR	Robbie Chosen	4.20	Robbie Chosen	4.20
RB	C.J. Anderson	9.30	C.J. Anderson	9.30
RB	Christian McCaffrey	9.14	Christian McCaffrey	9.14
TE	Travis Kelce	6.90	Travis Kelce	6.90
W/R/T	Paul Perkins	3.50	James White	8.30
K	Ryan Succop	10.00	Ryan Succop	10.00
DEF	Panthers	15.07	Panthers	15.07

Carried by One Guy: Ben Roethlisberger, 15.72 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Adam Thielen scored 22.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.20 points left. Optimal 128.33 vs. actual 113.13.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	18.68	Matthew Stafford	27.08
WR	Adam Thielen	22.20	Rishard Matthews	9.60
WR	Sammy Watkins	8.30	Adam Thielen	22.20
WR	Michael Thomas	7.00	Sammy Watkins	8.30
RB	DeMarco Murray	7.00	LeGarrette Blount	11.20
RB	Isaiah Crowell	9.60	Isaiah Crowell	9.60
TE	Austin Hooper	21.80	Austin Hooper	21.80
W/R/T	Pierre Garcon	11.10	Pierre Garcon	11.10
K	Matt Prater	7.00	Matt Prater	7.00
DEF	Texans	0.45	Texans	0.45

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 22.20 points (19.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 7 – 11, 2017

Miller

80.42

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

119.65

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.80 points left. Optimal 102.22 vs. actual 80.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	8.32	Russell Wilson	8.32
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	10.40	Davante Adams	6.20
WR	Davante Adams	6.20	Corey Coleman	13.80
WR	Jamison Crowder	0.96	Larry Fitzgerald	10.40
RB	Mike Gillislee	22.50	Mike Gillislee	22.50
RB	Devonta Freeman	10.90	Devonta Freeman	10.90
TE	Jack Doyle	5.10	Jack Doyle	5.10
W/R/T	John Brown	6.20	Danny Amendola	15.16
K	Stephen Hauschka	3.00	Stephen Hauschka	3.00
DEF	Broncos	6.84	Broncos	6.84

Carried by One Guy: Mike Gillislee, 22.50 points (28.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.66 points left. Optimal 138.31 vs. actual 119.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	10.68	Tom Brady	10.68
WR	Kendall Wright	4.90	Kendall Wright	4.90
WR	Donte Moncrief	5.50	Donte Moncrief	5.50
WR	Tyreek Hill	25.44	Tyreek Hill	25.44
RB	Marshawn Lynch	9.70	Chris Thompson	13.96
RB	Le'Veon Bell	6.20	Marshawn Lynch	9.70
TE	Rob Gronkowski	4.30	Zach Ertz	13.30
W/R/T	Zach Ertz	13.30	Jonathan Stewart	15.20
K	Matt Bryant	11.00	Matt Bryant	11.00
DEF	Rams	28.63	Rams	28.63

Carried by One Guy: Rams, 28.63 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 7 – 11, 2017

Kev

121.47

Rank 3; -3.5 luck points

Adam

127.19

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.80 points left. Optimal 123.27 vs. actual 121.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	18.84	Marcus Mariota	18.84
WR	Chris Hogan	3.00	Chris Hogan	3.00
WR	T.Y. Hilton	5.20	T.Y. Hilton	5.20
WR	Stefon Diggs	24.20	Stefon Diggs	24.20
RB	LeSean McCoy	20.40	Ezekiel Elliott	18.50
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	18.50	LeSean McCoy	20.40
TE	Kyle Rudolph	10.10	Kyle Rudolph	10.10
W/R/T	Tevin Coleman	7.80	Mark Ingram II	9.60
K	Graham Gano	10.00	Graham Gano	10.00
DEF	Giants	3.43	Giants	3.43

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 24.20 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jaguars scored 28.07; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.40 points left. Optimal 144.59 vs. actual 127.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	17.12	Dak Prescott	17.12
WR	Brandon Marshall	1.50	Emmanuel Sanders	4.10
WR	Jordy Nelson	17.40	Cooper Kupp	15.60
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	4.10	Jordy Nelson	17.40
RB	Ty Montgomery II	17.30	Ty Montgomery II	17.30
RB	Jordan Howard	14.10	Jordan Howard	14.10
TE	Coby Fleener	13.90	Coby Fleener	13.90
W/R/T	Carlos Hyde	10.70	Terrance West	14.00
K	Chris Boswell	3.00	Chris Boswell	3.00
DEF	Jaguars	28.07	Jaguars	28.07

Carried by One Guy: Jaguars, 28.07 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 7 – 11, 2017

Big Hut

102.66

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

106.72

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.06 points left. Optimal 114.72 vs. actual 102.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	6.70	Tyrod Taylor	18.76
WR	Demaryius Thomas	9.20	Demaryius Thomas	9.20
WR	Golden Tate	18.40	Golden Tate	18.40
WR	Randall Cobb	13.00	Randall Cobb	13.00
RB	Rob Kelley	3.00	Rob Kelley	3.00
RB	Leonard Fournette	21.90	Leonard Fournette	21.90
TE	Delanie Walker	11.10	Delanie Walker	11.10
W/R/T	Joe Mixon	3.90	Joe Mixon	3.90
K	Stephen Gostkowski	8.00	Stephen Gostkowski	8.00
DEF	Cardinals	7.46	Cardinals	7.46

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Leonard Fournette, 21.90 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kareem Hunt scored 45.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.90 points left. Optimal 113.62 vs. actual 106.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	13.14	Cam Newton	13.14
WR	Doug Baldwin	8.00	Doug Baldwin	8.00
WR	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	9.60	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	9.60
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	3.00	Marquise Goodwin	3.60
RB	Danny Woodhead	5.20	Giovani Bernard	8.40
RB	Kareem Hunt	45.10	Kareem Hunt	45.10
TE	Jimmy Graham	2.30	Evan Engram	6.40
W/R/T	Evan Engram	6.40	Chris Carson	5.40
K	Dustin Hopkins	5.00	Dustin Hopkins	5.00
DEF	Seahawks	8.98	Seahawks	8.98

Carried by One Guy: Kareem Hunt, 45.10 points (42.3% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	0–1	0.545	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Demich	1–0	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	0–1	0.818	-3.5	-0.318	0 / 1
Miller	0–1	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	1–0	0.273	+2.5	+0.227	1 / 0
Josh	0–1	0.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	0–1	0.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	1–0	0.636	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	0–1	0.182	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	1–0	0.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	1–0	0.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	1–0	0.455	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0

2017 week 1 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 1