2017 week 10 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 7 – 13, 2017

j-mart

92.28

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Adam

75.80

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.22 points left. Optimal 115.50 vs. actual 92.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	29.58	Kirk Cousins	29.58
WR	Ted Ginn Jr.	1.18	Rishard Matthews	7.50
WR	Rishard Matthews	7.50	Martavis Bryant	6.80
WR	Michael Thomas	18.20	Michael Thomas	18.20
RB	Melvin Gordon III	6.70	Melvin Gordon III	6.70
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	1.70	Aaron Jones Sr.	1.70
TE	Vernon Davis	11.10	Vernon Davis	11.10
W/R/T	Martavis Bryant	6.80	Austin Ekeler	24.40
K	Stephen Hauschka	4.00	Stephen Hauschka	4.00
DEF	Jets	5.52	Jets	5.52

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 29.58 points (32.1% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.96 points left. Optimal 102.76 vs. actual 75.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	13.24	Dak Prescott	13.24
WR	Jordy Nelson	3.50	Emmanuel Sanders	18.70
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	18.70	Doug Baldwin	12.00
WR	Doug Baldwin	12.00	Curtis Samuel	7.96
RB	Adrian Peterson	2.70	Theo Riddick	12.20
RB	Jordan Howard	5.40	Ty Montgomery II	13.80
TE	Tyler Kroft	0.90	Tyler Kroft	0.90
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	7.70	Matt Breida	12.30
K	Brandon McManus	10.00	Brandon McManus	10.00
DEF	Vikings	1.66	Vikings	1.66

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Emmanuel Sanders, 18.70 points (24.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kirk Cousins scored 29.58; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 7 – 13, 2017

Kev

146.64

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

90.07

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.80 points left. Optimal 154.44 vs. actual 146.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh McCown	12.48	Josh McCown	12.48
WR	Devin Funchess	23.70	Devin Funchess	23.70
WR	Stefon Diggs	15.80	Stefon Diggs	15.80
WR	Sterling Shepard	21.70	Sterling Shepard	21.70
RB	LeSean McCoy	7.50	Mark Ingram II	33.10
RB	Mark Ingram II	33.10	Tevin Coleman	15.30
TE	Kyle Rudolph	6.20	Kyle Rudolph	6.20
W/R/T	Orleans Darkwa	11.80	Orleans Darkwa	11.80
K	Graham Gano	10.00	Graham Gano	10.00
DEF	Bears	4.36	Bears	4.36

Carried by One Guy: Mark Ingram II, 33.10 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.10 points left. Optimal 97.17 vs. actual 90.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	13.96	Drew Brees	13.96
WR	DeSean Jackson	11.20	Antonio Brown	6.34
WR	Antonio Brown	6.34	DeAndre Hopkins	16.60
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	16.60	DeSean Jackson	11.20
RB	Frank Gore	6.60	Latavius Murray	12.80
RB	Jerick McKinnon	5.70	Frank Gore	6.60
TE	Hunter Henry	1.20	Hunter Henry	1.20
W/R/T	Dion Lewis	20.56	Dion Lewis	20.56
K	Josh Lambo	5.00	Josh Lambo	5.00
DEF	Panthers	2.91	Panthers	2.91

Carried by One Guy: Dion Lewis, 20.56 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 7 – 13, 2017

Miller

103.56

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

120.55

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.00 points left. Optimal 114.56 vs. actual 103.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	19.42	Russell Wilson	19.42
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	18.30	Marquise Goodwin	16.60
WR	Danny Amendola	5.60	Davante Adams	17.50
WR	Davante Adams	17.50	Larry Fitzgerald	18.30
RB	Doug Martin	5.10	Doug Martin	5.10
RB	Devonta Freeman	0.30	Devonta Freeman	0.30
TE	Austin Hooper	13.90	Austin Hooper	13.90
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	10.10	Jamison Crowder	10.10
K	Greg Zuerlein	16.00	Greg Zuerlein	16.00
DEF	Broncos	-2.66	Broncos	-2.66

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 19.42 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Adam Thielen scored 28.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.86 points left. Optimal 133.41 vs. actual 120.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	2.94	Tyrod Taylor	2.94
WR	Travis Benjamin	1.50	Dontrelle Inman	11.80
WR	Adam Thielen	28.60	Adam Thielen	28.60
WR	Sammy Watkins	11.10	Sammy Watkins	11.10
RB	Bilal Powell	2.10	Todd Gurley	16.60
RB	Todd Gurley	16.60	Tarik Cohen	4.66
TE	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	9.70	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	9.70
W/R/T	DeMarco Murray	27.20	DeMarco Murray	27.20
K	Chandler Catanzaro	5.00	Chandler Catanzaro	5.00
DEF	Rams	15.81	Rams	15.81

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 28.60 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 7 – 13, 2017

Martin

106.36

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

82.86

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.40 points left. Optimal 112.76 vs. actual 106.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	17.66	Marcus Mariota	17.66
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	2.70	Kelvin Benjamin	5.70
WR	Marqise Lee	16.50	Marqise Lee	16.50
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	18.70	JuJu Smith-Schuster	18.70
RB	Lamar Miller	7.90	Lamar Miller	7.90
RB	Duke Johnson	11.80	Duke Johnson	11.80
TE	Evan Engram	12.10	Evan Engram	12.10
W/R/T	Cameron Brate	1.50	Damien Williams	4.90
K	Kai Forbath	10.00	Kai Forbath	10.00
DEF	Steelers	7.50	Steelers	7.50

Carried by One Guy: JuJu Smith-Schuster, 18.70 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.10 points left. Optimal 88.96 vs. actual 82.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	16.92	Eli Manning	16.92
WR	Demaryius Thomas	12.90	Demaryius Thomas	12.90
WR	Kenny Stills	9.20	Kenny Stills	9.20
WR	Paul Richardson	4.80	Paul Richardson	4.80
RB	Leonard Fournette	5.60	Leonard Fournette	5.60
RB	Joe Mixon	10.50	Joe Mixon	10.50
TE	Delanie Walker	9.30	Delanie Walker	9.30
W/R/T	Rob Kelley	2.40	Randall Cobb	7.50
K	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00	Matt Bryant	10.00
DEF	Giants	2.24	Giants	2.24

Carried by One Guy: Eli Manning, 16.92 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 7 – 13, 2017

Demich

98.60

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

107.29

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 37.20 points left. Optimal 135.80 vs. actual 98.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	14.60	Matt Ryan	14.60
WR	Julio Jones	8.70	Julio Jones	8.70
WR	Jarvis Landry	12.70	Robert Woods	35.10
WR	Tyler Lockett	3.60	Jarvis Landry	12.70
RB	Chris Thompson	9.24	Chris Thompson	9.24
RB	Ameer Abdullah	12.00	Ameer Abdullah	12.00
TE	Jason Witten	9.40	Jason Witten	9.40
W/R/T	Corey Davis	4.80	Andre Ellington	10.50
K	Matt Prater	9.00	Matt Prater	9.00
DEF	Lions	14.56	Lions	14.56

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 14.60 points (14.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tom Brady scored 22.64; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.30 points left. Optimal 118.59 vs. actual 107.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	22.64	Tom Brady	22.64
WR	Jermaine Kearse	5.50	Jermaine Kearse	5.50
WR	DeVante Parker	9.60	DeVante Parker	9.60
WR	Will Fuller V	2.50	Josh Doctson	5.00
RB	Le'Veon Bell	13.70	Le'Veon Bell	13.70
RB	Kenyan Drake	16.20	Kenyan Drake	16.20
TE	Rob Gronkowski	9.40	Rob Gronkowski	9.40
W/R/T	Josh Doctson	5.00	Rex Burkhead	13.80
K	Wil Lutz	11.00	Wil Lutz	11.00
DEF	Seahawks	11.75	Seahawks	11.75

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 22.64 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 7 – 13, 2017

Josh

136.73

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

121.77

Rank 3; -3.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 136.73 vs. actual 136.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	28.50	Jared Goff	28.50
WR	A.J. Green	22.00	A.J. Green	22.00
WR	Brandin Cooks	10.40	Brandin Cooks	10.40
WR	Robbie Chosen	16.50	Robbie Chosen	16.50
RB	C.J. Anderson	6.00	C.J. Anderson	6.00
RB	Christian McCaffrey	18.70	Christian McCaffrey	18.70
TE	Charles Clay	2.30	Charles Clay	2.30
W/R/T	James White	9.30	James White	9.30
K	Ryan Succop	7.00	Ryan Succop	7.00
DEF	Patriots	16.03	Patriots	16.03

Carried by One Guy: Jared Goff, 28.50 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.10 points left. Optimal 149.87 vs. actual 121.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	21.66	Cam Newton	35.66
WR	Dez Bryant	5.90	Dez Bryant	5.90
WR	Golden Tate	18.70	Golden Tate	18.70
WR	Keenan Allen	7.40	Keenan Allen	7.40
RB	Carlos Hyde	11.40	Carlos Hyde	11.40
RB	Alvin Kamara	24.30	Alvin Kamara	24.30
TE	Jimmy Graham	17.70	Jimmy Graham	17.70
W/R/T	Jack Doyle	1.90	Isaiah Crowell	16.00
K	Chris Boswell	6.00	Chris Boswell	6.00
DEF	Jaguars	6.81	Jaguars	6.81

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 24.30 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jared Goff scored 28.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–7	5.273	-4.5	-0.409	1 / 4
Demich	5–5	3.182	+6.5	+0.591	3 / 0
Kev	7–3	7.773	-8.0	-0.727	0 / 2
Miller	6–4	4.455	+4.0	+0.364	2 / 0
Martin	6–4	3.955	+6.5	+0.591	3 / 0
Josh	5–5	5.364	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 2
Big Hut	3–7	2.636	+3.5	+0.318	3 / 0
Fischer	4–6	3.727	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Krajcik	4–6	5.545	-5.0	-0.455	0 / 2
Horgan	10–0	7.727	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Adam	3–7	4.091	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Joe Shore	4–6	6.273	-7.0	-0.636	2 / 4

2017 week 10 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 10