2017 week 2 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 12 – 18, 2017

j-mart

129.77

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Kev

82.10

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.90 points left. Optimal 135.67 vs. actual 129.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	11.86	Kirk Cousins	11.86
WR	Alshon Jeffery	18.70	Alshon Jeffery	18.70
WR	Martavis Bryant	17.30	Martavis Bryant	17.30
WR	Kenny Golladay	1.30	Ted Ginn Jr.	4.22
RB	Todd Gurley	25.10	Todd Gurley	25.10
RB	Melvin Gordon III	17.30	Melvin Gordon III	17.30
TE	Jordan Reed	7.80	Jordan Reed	7.80
W/R/T	Ted Ginn Jr.	4.22	Samaje Perine	7.20
K	Wil Lutz	9.00	Wil Lutz	9.00
DEF	Ravens	17.19	Ravens	17.19

Carried by One Guy: Todd Gurley, 25.10 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.40 points left. Optimal 87.50 vs. actual 82.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	13.00	Marcus Mariota	13.00
WR	Chris Hogan	16.30	Chris Hogan	16.30
WR	T.Y. Hilton	6.90	T.Y. Hilton	6.90
WR	Stefon Diggs	4.10	Stefon Diggs	4.10
RB	LeSean McCoy	7.30	Mark Ingram II	9.60
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	4.20	LeSean McCoy	7.30
TE	Kyle Rudolph	6.50	Kyle Rudolph	6.50
W/R/T	Tevin Coleman	11.50	Tevin Coleman	11.50
K	Graham Gano	7.00	Graham Gano	7.00
DEF	Giants	5.30	Giants	5.30

Carried by One Guy: Chris Hogan, 16.30 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 12 – 18, 2017

Josh

133.92

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

115.01

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.52 points left. Optimal 147.44 vs. actual 133.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	17.52	Philip Rivers	19.24
WR	A.J. Green	9.20	A.J. Green	9.20
WR	Brandin Cooks	5.30	Brandin Cooks	5.30
WR	Robbie Chosen	3.80	Nelson Agholor	7.40
RB	C.J. Anderson	30.90	C.J. Anderson	30.90
RB	Christian McCaffrey	7.00	Derrick Henry	15.20
TE	Travis Kelce	22.30	Travis Kelce	22.30
W/R/T	James White	13.60	James White	13.60
K	Ryan Succop	14.00	Ryan Succop	14.00
DEF	Panthers	10.30	Panthers	10.30

Carried by One Guy: C.J. Anderson, 30.90 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.82 points left. Optimal 138.83 vs. actual 115.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	24.24	Drew Brees	24.24
WR	DeSean Jackson	5.40	Dez Bryant	15.40
WR	Antonio Brown	8.70	Mohamed Sanu	11.00
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	10.80	DeAndre Hopkins	10.80
RB	Darren Sproles	7.00	Alvin Kamara	8.32
RB	Thomas Rawls	0.40	Frank Gore	10.60
TE	Hunter Henry	11.50	Hunter Henry	11.50
W/R/T	Michael Crabtree	29.00	Michael Crabtree	29.00
K	Justin Tucker	5.00	Justin Tucker	5.00
DEF	Chiefs	12.97	Chiefs	12.97

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Michael Crabtree, 29.00 points (25.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: C.J. Anderson scored 30.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 12 – 18, 2017

Big Hut

106.17

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Fischer

76.52

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.40 points left. Optimal 115.57 vs. actual 106.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	12.46	Jameis Winston	12.46
WR	Demaryius Thomas	10.10	Demaryius Thomas	10.10
WR	Golden Tate	4.50	Kenny Stills	10.70
WR	Mike Evans	18.80	Mike Evans	18.80
RB	Leonard Fournette	13.10	Rob Kelley	7.80
RB	Joe Mixon	4.60	Leonard Fournette	13.10
TE	Delanie Walker	14.20	Delanie Walker	14.20
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	10.00	Randall Cobb	10.00
K	Stephen Gostkowski	8.00	Stephen Gostkowski	8.00
DEF	Cardinals	10.41	Cardinals	10.41

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 18.80 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.60 points left. Optimal 79.12 vs. actual 76.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	21.20	Derek Carr	21.20
WR	Adam Thielen	4.90	Rishard Matthews	5.80
WR	Sammy Watkins	4.00	Adam Thielen	4.90
WR	Michael Thomas	11.40	Michael Thomas	11.40
RB	DeMarco Murray	3.30	Isaiah Crowell	3.70
RB	Isaiah Crowell	3.70	Tarik Cohen	9.00
TE	Austin Hooper	1.70	Austin Hooper	1.70
W/R/T	Tarik Cohen	9.00	Pierre Garcon	4.10
K	Giorgio Tavecchio	8.00	Giorgio Tavecchio	8.00
DEF	Texans	9.32	Texans	9.32

Carried by One Guy: Derek Carr, 21.20 points (27.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 12 – 18, 2017

Martin

86.05

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

155.47

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.75 points left. Optimal 94.80 vs. actual 86.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	20.52	Aaron Rodgers	20.52
WR	Jeremy Maclin	11.10	Keenan Allen	16.50
WR	Keenan Allen	16.50	Marqise Lee	11.18
WR	Jordan Matthews	4.50	Jeremy Maclin	11.10
RB	Jamaal Charles	5.70	Lamar Miller	10.20
RB	Lamar Miller	10.20	Jamaal Charles	5.70
TE	Greg Olsen	1.50	Cameron Brate	3.40
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	9.20	Marvin Jones Jr.	9.20
K	Mason Crosby	4.00	Mason Crosby	4.00
DEF	Rams	2.83	Patriots	3.00

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 20.52 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.46 points left. Optimal 172.93 vs. actual 155.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	32.78	Tom Brady	32.78
WR	DeVante Parker	10.50	Kendall Wright	10.40
WR	J.J. Nelson	22.50	DeVante Parker	10.50
WR	Tyreek Hill	7.06	J.J. Nelson	22.50
RB	Marshawn Lynch	11.40	Jacquizz Rodgers	12.70
RB	Le'Veon Bell	11.10	Chris Thompson	24.42
TE	Rob Gronkowski	22.60	Rob Gronkowski	22.60
W/R/T	Jacquizz Rodgers	12.70	Zach Ertz	12.20
K	Matt Bryant	14.00	Matt Bryant	14.00
DEF	Raiders	10.83	Raiders	10.83

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 32.78 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 12 – 18, 2017

Miller

127.63

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Adam

106.80

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.70 points left. Optimal 133.33 vs. actual 127.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	15.32	Russell Wilson	15.32
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	3.60	Davante Adams	19.90
WR	Davante Adams	19.90	Jamison Crowder	6.96
WR	Jamison Crowder	6.96	Larry Fitzgerald	3.60
RB	Devonta Freeman	23.00	Devonta Freeman	23.00
RB	Jay Ajayi	15.60	Jay Ajayi	15.60
TE	Jack Doyle	11.90	Jack Doyle	11.90
W/R/T	Mike Gillislee	12.90	Javorius Allen	18.60
K	Stephen Hauschka	4.00	Stephen Hauschka	4.00
DEF	Broncos	14.45	Broncos	14.45

Carried by One Guy: Devonta Freeman, 23.00 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.30 points left. Optimal 126.10 vs. actual 106.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	17.88	Carson Palmer	17.88
WR	Jordy Nelson	0.00	Emmanuel Sanders	21.20
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	21.20	Cooper Kupp	4.80
WR	Cooper Kupp	4.80	Brandon Marshall	2.20
RB	Ty Montgomery II	26.00	Carlos Hyde	17.80
RB	Jordan Howard	0.70	Ty Montgomery II	26.00
TE	Coby Fleener	10.80	Coby Fleener	10.80
W/R/T	Terrance West	11.50	Terrance West	11.50
K	Chris Boswell	15.00	Chris Boswell	15.00
DEF	Jaguars	-1.08	Jaguars	-1.08

Carried by One Guy: Ty Montgomery II, 26.00 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Devonta Freeman scored 23.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 12 – 18, 2017

Demich

118.34

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

85.68

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.22 points left. Optimal 126.56 vs. actual 118.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	14.88	Matt Ryan	14.88
WR	Julio Jones	15.30	Julio Jones	15.30
WR	Jarvis Landry	13.60	Jarvis Landry	13.60
WR	Amari Cooper	5.30	Tyler Lockett	10.32
RB	Ameer Abdullah	8.60	Ameer Abdullah	8.60
RB	Dalvin Cook	7.40	Dalvin Cook	7.40
TE	Jason Witten	20.70	Jason Witten	20.70
W/R/T	Tyrell Williams	7.40	Matt Forte	10.60
K	Dan Bailey	7.00	Dan Bailey	7.00
DEF	Lions	18.16	Lions	18.16

Carried by One Guy: Jason Witten, 20.70 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 38.40 points left. Optimal 124.08 vs. actual 85.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	11.82	Cam Newton	11.82
WR	Doug Baldwin	7.40	Doug Baldwin	7.40
WR	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	4.10	Kelvin Benjamin	10.70
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	10.70	Allen Hurns	17.20
RB	Giovani Bernard	3.60	Rex Burkhead	11.90
RB	Kareem Hunt	24.40	Kareem Hunt	24.40
TE	Jimmy Graham	0.60	Eric Ebron	12.70
W/R/T	Odell Beckham Jr.	5.60	Chris Carson	10.50
K	Dustin Hopkins	9.00	Dustin Hopkins	9.00
DEF	Seahawks	8.46	Seahawks	8.46

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Kareem Hunt, 24.40 points (28.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–1	1.364	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Demich	2–0	1.636	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	0–2	0.909	-3.5	-0.318	0 / 1
Miller	1–1	0.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	1–1	0.545	+2.5	+0.227	1 / 0
Josh	1–1	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	1–1	0.727	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Fischer	1–1	0.636	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	0–2	0.727	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Horgan	2–0	1.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	1–1	1.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	1–1	0.636	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0

2017 week 2 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 2