2017 week 4 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 26 – Oct 2, 2017

j-mart

103.38

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Martin

106.29

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.40 points left. Optimal 120.78 vs. actual 103.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	20.60	Kirk Cousins	20.60
WR	Ted Ginn Jr.	4.92	Alshon Jeffery	10.40
WR	Alshon Jeffery	10.40	Martavis Bryant	6.30
WR	Martavis Bryant	6.30	Ted Ginn Jr.	4.92
RB	Todd Gurley	33.00	Todd Gurley	33.00
RB	Melvin Gordon III	3.40	Alex Collins	7.20
TE	Jordan Reed	3.60	Vernon Davis	9.90
W/R/T	Alex Collins	7.20	Mike Wallace	14.50
K	Wil Lutz	10.00	Wil Lutz	10.00
DEF	Ravens	3.96	Ravens	3.96

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Todd Gurley, 33.00 points (31.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Lamar Miller scored 27.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.50 points left. Optimal 115.79 vs. actual 106.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	23.06	Aaron Rodgers	23.06
WR	Jeremy Maclin	3.60	Keenan Allen	18.30
WR	Keenan Allen	18.30	Jordan Matthews	8.00
WR	Marqise Lee	2.80	Sterling Shepard	7.90
RB	Chris Johnson	7.80	Lamar Miller	27.10
RB	Lamar Miller	27.10	Chris Johnson	7.80
TE	Evan Engram	9.20	Evan Engram	9.20
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	5.20	Marvin Jones Jr.	5.20
K	Mason Crosby	5.00	Mason Crosby	5.00
DEF	Patriots	4.23	Patriots	4.23

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Miller, 27.10 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 26 – Oct 2, 2017

Demich

93.76

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Miller

113.20

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.52 points left. Optimal 103.28 vs. actual 93.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	8.48	Matt Ryan	8.48
WR	Julio Jones	4.50	Julio Jones	4.50
WR	Jarvis Landry	7.18	Jarvis Landry	7.18
WR	Amari Cooper	1.90	Tyler Lockett	11.42
RB	Ameer Abdullah	18.40	Ameer Abdullah	18.40
RB	Dalvin Cook	11.90	Dalvin Cook	11.90
TE	Jason Witten	1.40	Jason Witten	1.40
W/R/T	Tyrell Williams	22.00	Tyrell Williams	22.00
K	Dan Bailey	6.00	Dan Bailey	6.00
DEF	Lions	12.00	Lions	12.00

Carried by One Guy: Tyrell Williams, 22.00 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Russell Wilson scored 27.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.80 points left. Optimal 131.00 vs. actual 113.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	27.60	Russell Wilson	27.60
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	11.20	Davante Adams	8.30
WR	Davante Adams	8.30	John Brown	6.20
WR	Jamison Crowder	-0.20	Larry Fitzgerald	11.20
RB	Devonta Freeman	14.80	Devonta Freeman	14.80
RB	Jay Ajayi	5.90	Javorius Allen	7.40
TE	Jack Doyle	5.20	Ben Watson	6.80
W/R/T	Mike Gillislee	4.90	Danny Amendola	13.20
K	Greg Zuerlein	26.00	Greg Zuerlein	26.00
DEF	Broncos	9.50	Broncos	9.50

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 27.60 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 26 – Oct 2, 2017

Fischer

79.90

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

117.31

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 41.20 points left. Optimal 121.10 vs. actual 79.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	10.06	Matthew Stafford	10.06
WR	Adam Thielen	6.40	Rishard Matthews	6.40
WR	Sammy Watkins	2.20	Adam Thielen	6.40
WR	Michael Thomas	18.90	Michael Thomas	18.90
RB	DeMarco Murray	4.50	LeGarrette Blount	18.10
RB	Tarik Cohen	6.94	Tarik Cohen	6.94
TE	Jared Cook	6.10	Jared Cook	6.10
W/R/T	Pierre Garcon	5.60	Bilal Powell	29.00
K	Giorgio Tavecchio	4.00	Giorgio Tavecchio	4.00
DEF	Jaguars	15.20	Jaguars	15.20

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Michael Thomas, 18.90 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.90 points left. Optimal 118.21 vs. actual 117.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	19.02	Drew Brees	19.02
WR	Dez Bryant	12.30	Dez Bryant	12.30
WR	Antonio Brown	5.70	Antonio Brown	5.70
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	23.70	DeAndre Hopkins	23.70
RB	Frank Gore	9.50	Alvin Kamara	21.06
RB	Alvin Kamara	21.06	Frank Gore	9.50
TE	Hunter Henry	8.60	Hunter Henry	8.60
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	3.00	Latavius Murray	3.90
K	Justin Tucker	4.00	Justin Tucker	4.00
DEF	Chiefs	10.43	Chiefs	10.43

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 23.70 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 26 – Oct 2, 2017

Big Hut

104.30

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

114.28

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.40 points left. Optimal 126.70 vs. actual 104.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	12.48	Jameis Winston	28.48
WR	Demaryius Thomas	1.60	Golden Tate	4.60
WR	Golden Tate	4.60	Mike Evans	15.20
WR	Mike Evans	15.20	Paul Richardson	8.00
RB	Leonard Fournette	22.50	Leonard Fournette	22.50
RB	Joe Mixon	6.80	Joe Mixon	6.80
TE	Delanie Walker	6.60	Delanie Walker	6.60
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	12.40	Randall Cobb	12.40
K	Stephen Gostkowski	15.00	Stephen Gostkowski	15.00
DEF	Cardinals	7.12	Cardinals	7.12

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Leonard Fournette, 22.50 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Le'Veon Bell scored 34.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.84 points left. Optimal 146.12 vs. actual 114.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	22.48	Tom Brady	22.48
WR	Kenny Britt	6.70	Donte Moncrief	10.50
WR	DeVante Parker	9.90	DeVante Parker	9.90
WR	Tyreek Hill	6.00	Will Fuller V	17.90
RB	Marshawn Lynch	1.20	Jacquizz Rodgers	11.80
RB	Le'Veon Bell	34.60	Le'Veon Bell	34.60
TE	Rob Gronkowski	10.00	Zach Ertz	10.60
W/R/T	Zach Ertz	10.60	Giovani Bernard	15.54
K	Matt Bryant	4.00	Matt Bryant	4.00
DEF	Bengals	8.80	Bengals	8.80

Carried by One Guy: Le'Veon Bell, 34.60 points (30.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 26 – Oct 2, 2017

Josh

109.07

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Adam

113.39

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.60 points left. Optimal 112.67 vs. actual 109.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	21.88	Philip Rivers	21.88
WR	A.J. Green	14.80	A.J. Green	14.80
WR	Jermaine Kearse	3.70	Brandin Cooks	5.70
WR	Brandin Cooks	5.70	Nelson Agholor	7.30
RB	C.J. Anderson	13.20	C.J. Anderson	13.20
RB	Christian McCaffrey	8.56	Christian McCaffrey	8.56
TE	Travis Kelce	22.90	Travis Kelce	22.90
W/R/T	James White	10.40	James White	10.40
K	Ryan Succop	2.00	Ryan Succop	2.00
DEF	Falcons	5.93	Falcons	5.93

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 22.90 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dak Prescott scored 22.58; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.10 points left. Optimal 128.49 vs. actual 113.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	22.58	Dak Prescott	22.58
WR	Brandon Marshall	7.60	Doug Baldwin	7.00
WR	Jordy Nelson	21.50	Brandon Marshall	7.60
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	4.70	Jordy Nelson	21.50
RB	Theo Riddick	1.70	Ty Montgomery II	2.80
RB	Ty Montgomery II	2.80	Jordan Howard	13.30
TE	Charles Clay	15.70	Charles Clay	15.70
W/R/T	Jordan Howard	13.30	Cooper Kupp	14.50
K	Chris Boswell	9.00	Chris Boswell	9.00
DEF	Steelers	14.51	Steelers	14.51

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 22.58 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 26 – Oct 2, 2017

Kev

119.89

Rank 2; -4.5 luck points

Joe Shore

126.94

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.00 points left. Optimal 145.89 vs. actual 119.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	15.74	Marcus Mariota	15.74
WR	Chris Hogan	14.50	Chris Hogan	14.50
WR	T.Y. Hilton	4.50	Devin Funchess	22.50
WR	Stefon Diggs	12.30	Stefon Diggs	12.30
RB	LeSean McCoy	12.30	Ezekiel Elliott	27.90
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	27.90	LeSean McCoy	12.30
TE	Kyle Rudolph	4.40	Kyle Rudolph	4.40
W/R/T	Mark Ingram II	8.20	Tevin Coleman	16.20
K	Graham Gano	9.00	Graham Gano	9.00
DEF	Packers	11.05	Packers	11.05

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 27.90 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Seahawks scored 21.16; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.26 points left. Optimal 159.20 vs. actual 126.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	15.08	Cam Newton	35.04
WR	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	14.50	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	14.50
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	12.50	Odell Beckham Jr.	12.50
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	14.40	Kelvin Benjamin	14.40
RB	Kareem Hunt	16.10	Duke Johnson	16.50
RB	Chris Carson	8.10	Kareem Hunt	16.10
TE	Jimmy Graham	8.10	Jimmy Graham	8.10
W/R/T	Carlos Hyde	12.00	Wendell Smallwood	15.90
K	Matt Prater	5.00	Matt Prater	5.00
DEF	Seahawks	21.16	Seahawks	21.16

Carried by One Guy: Seahawks, 21.16 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–3	2.182	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Demich	2–2	1.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	1–3	2.727	-8.0	-0.727	0 / 2
Miller	3–1	2.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	2–2	0.909	+4.0	+0.364	2 / 0
Josh	1–3	2.000	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Big Hut	2–2	1.364	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 0
Fischer	1–3	0.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	1–3	1.727	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Horgan	4–0	3.455	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	3–1	2.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	3–1	2.091	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 0

2017 week 4 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 4