2017 week 9 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 31 – Nov 6, 2017

j-mart

97.24

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

122.90

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.60 points left. Optimal 98.84 vs. actual 97.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	8.28	Kirk Cousins	8.28
WR	Ted Ginn Jr.	14.22	Alshon Jeffery	23.40
WR	Alshon Jeffery	23.40	Michael Thomas	10.50
WR	Michael Thomas	10.50	Ted Ginn Jr.	14.22
RB	Alex Collins	5.10	LeGarrette Blount	3.70
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	2.10	Alex Collins	5.10
TE	Vernon Davis	10.20	Vernon Davis	10.20
W/R/T	Rishard Matthews	15.00	Rishard Matthews	15.00
K	Stephen Hauschka	3.00	Stephen Hauschka	3.00
DEF	Ravens	5.44	Ravens	5.44

Carried by One Guy: Alshon Jeffery, 23.40 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.02 points left. Optimal 137.92 vs. actual 122.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	24.44	Matthew Stafford	24.44
WR	Amari Cooper	7.80	Amari Cooper	7.80
WR	DeVante Parker	10.10	DeVante Parker	10.10
WR	Tyreek Hill	14.30	Tyreek Hill	14.30
RB	Matt Forte	23.60	Javorius Allen	16.00
RB	Javorius Allen	16.00	Matt Forte	23.60
TE	Ben Watson	7.60	Ben Watson	7.60
W/R/T	Will Fuller V	4.28	Marshawn Lynch	19.30
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	2.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	2.00
DEF	Seahawks	12.78	Seahawks	12.78

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 24.44 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 31 – Nov 6, 2017

Demich

92.29

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Krajcik

82.03

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.44 points left. Optimal 109.73 vs. actual 92.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	20.42	Matt Ryan	20.42
WR	Julio Jones	16.80	Julio Jones	16.80
WR	Jarvis Landry	12.20	Robert Woods	21.00
WR	Tyler Lockett	3.56	Jarvis Landry	12.20
RB	Chris Thompson	5.10	Chris Thompson	5.10
RB	Ameer Abdullah	10.20	Ameer Abdullah	10.20
TE	Jason Witten	1.00	Jason Witten	1.00
W/R/T	Corey Davis	3.80	Corey Davis	3.80
K	Matt Prater	11.00	Matt Prater	11.00
DEF	Lions	8.21	Lions	8.21

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 20.42 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 82.03 vs. actual 82.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	18.72	Drew Brees	18.72
WR	DeSean Jackson	4.30	DeAndre Hopkins	17.60
WR	Michael Crabtree	5.50	DeSean Jackson	4.30
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	17.60	Michael Crabtree	5.50
RB	Frank Gore	9.20	Kareem Hunt	8.10
RB	Kareem Hunt	8.10	Frank Gore	9.20
TE	Ed Dickson	0.00	Ed Dickson	0.00
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	9.80	Mohamed Sanu	9.80
K	Justin Tucker	9.00	Justin Tucker	9.00
DEF	Chiefs	-0.19	Chiefs	-0.19

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 18.72 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Matt Ryan scored 20.42; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 31 – Nov 6, 2017

Kev

130.12

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

104.75

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.90 points left. Optimal 137.02 vs. actual 130.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	24.76	Carson Wentz	24.76
WR	T.Y. Hilton	34.00	T.Y. Hilton	34.00
WR	Devin Funchess	11.10	Devin Funchess	11.10
WR	Sterling Shepard	9.50	Sterling Shepard	9.50
RB	LeSean McCoy	2.50	Orleans Darkwa	8.90
RB	Mark Ingram II	8.40	Tevin Coleman	8.90
TE	Tyler Higbee	7.30	Tyler Higbee	7.30
W/R/T	Ezekiel Elliott	15.30	Ezekiel Elliott	15.30
K	Graham Gano	9.00	Graham Gano	9.00
DEF	Titans	8.26	Titans	8.26

Carried by One Guy: T.Y. Hilton, 34.00 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.30 points left. Optimal 110.05 vs. actual 104.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	26.90	Tyrod Taylor	26.90
WR	Andre Holmes	2.10	Sammy Watkins	13.20
WR	T.J. Jones	3.90	T.J. Jones	3.90
WR	Nelson Agholor	4.60	Nelson Agholor	4.60
RB	DeMarco Murray	5.10	DeMarco Murray	5.10
RB	Todd Gurley	23.40	Todd Gurley	23.40
TE	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	3.00	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	3.00
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	13.20	Bilal Powell	7.40
K	Jake Elliott	9.00	Jake Elliott	9.00
DEF	Rams	13.55	Rams	13.55

Carried by One Guy: Tyrod Taylor, 26.90 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: T.Y. Hilton scored 34.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 31 – Nov 6, 2017

Miller

98.28

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Big Hut

66.21

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.00 points left. Optimal 111.28 vs. actual 98.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	23.58	Russell Wilson	23.58
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	9.50	Marquise Goodwin	7.80
WR	Marquise Goodwin	7.80	Davante Adams	8.80
WR	Davante Adams	8.80	Larry Fitzgerald	9.50
RB	Doug Martin	0.70	Devonta Freeman	8.40
RB	Devonta Freeman	8.40	Jay Ajayi	13.70
TE	Austin Hooper	5.10	Austin Hooper	5.10
W/R/T	Chris Ivory	11.90	Chris Ivory	11.90
K	Greg Zuerlein	16.00	Greg Zuerlein	16.00
DEF	Broncos	6.50	Broncos	6.50

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 23.58 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.52 points left. Optimal 100.73 vs. actual 66.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	3.48	Eli Manning	12.80
WR	Demaryius Thomas	17.00	Demaryius Thomas	17.00
WR	Mike Evans	1.80	Randall Cobb	8.40
WR	Paul Richardson	5.60	Paul Richardson	5.60
RB	Rob Kelley	14.12	Rob Kelley	14.12
RB	Joe Mixon	12.10	Joe Mixon	12.10
TE	Delanie Walker	9.60	Delanie Walker	9.60
W/R/T	Leonard Fournette	0.00	Jared Cook	18.60
K	Matt Bryant	7.00	Matt Bryant	7.00
DEF	Giants	-4.49	Giants	-4.49

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Demaryius Thomas, 17.00 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 31 – Nov 6, 2017

Martin

130.12

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Josh

93.36

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.70 points left. Optimal 143.82 vs. actual 130.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	15.32	Marcus Mariota	15.32
WR	Jeremy Maclin	13.80	Marvin Jones Jr.	28.20
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	28.20	Marqise Lee	17.50
WR	Marqise Lee	17.50	Jeremy Maclin	13.80
RB	Lamar Miller	10.60	Lamar Miller	10.60
RB	Marlon Mack	2.90	Marlon Mack	2.90
TE	Evan Engram	15.00	Evan Engram	15.00
W/R/T	Cameron Brate	1.40	Damien Williams	15.10
K	Wil Lutz	6.00	Wil Lutz	6.00
DEF	Saints	19.40	Saints	19.40

Carried by One Guy: Marvin Jones Jr., 28.20 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.00 points left. Optimal 95.36 vs. actual 93.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	30.44	Jared Goff	30.44
WR	A.J. Green	1.10	A.J. Green	1.10
WR	Willie Snead IV	-2.00	Brandin Cooks	0.00
WR	Robbie Chosen	12.80	Robbie Chosen	12.80
RB	C.J. Anderson	1.30	C.J. Anderson	1.30
RB	Christian McCaffrey	17.90	Christian McCaffrey	17.90
TE	Travis Kelce	16.80	Travis Kelce	16.80
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	10.60	Derrick Henry	10.60
K	Ryan Succop	5.00	Ryan Succop	5.00
DEF	Bills	-0.58	Bills	-0.58

Carried by One Guy: Jared Goff, 30.44 points (31.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 31 – Nov 6, 2017

Adam

110.31

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Joe Shore

139.15

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.10 points left. Optimal 112.41 vs. actual 110.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	26.66	Dak Prescott	26.66
WR	Jordy Nelson	5.50	Doug Baldwin	22.30
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	3.50	Cooper Kupp	6.90
WR	Doug Baldwin	22.30	Jordy Nelson	5.50
RB	Adrian Peterson	17.70	Theo Riddick	9.30
RB	Theo Riddick	9.30	Adrian Peterson	17.70
TE	Tyler Kroft	8.90	Tyler Kroft	8.90
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	6.90	Ty Montgomery II	5.60
K	Blair Walsh	0.00	Blair Walsh	0.00
DEF	Eagles	9.55	Eagles	9.55

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 26.66 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 139.15 vs. actual 139.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	20.08	Cam Newton	20.08
WR	Mike Wallace	9.90	Dez Bryant	10.30
WR	Dez Bryant	10.30	Golden Tate	16.80
WR	Golden Tate	16.80	Mike Wallace	9.90
RB	Carlos Hyde	17.00	Carlos Hyde	17.00
RB	Alvin Kamara	28.20	Alvin Kamara	28.20
TE	Jimmy Graham	8.40	Jimmy Graham	8.40
W/R/T	Jack Doyle	10.30	Jack Doyle	10.30
K	Harrison Butker	5.00	Harrison Butker	5.00
DEF	Jaguars	13.17	Jaguars	13.17

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 28.20 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–7	5.000	-7.0	-0.636	0 / 4
Demich	5–4	2.818	+6.5	+0.591	3 / 0
Kev	6–3	6.773	-8.0	-0.727	0 / 2
Miller	6–3	4.000	+4.0	+0.364	2 / 0
Martin	5–4	3.409	+6.5	+0.591	3 / 0
Josh	4–5	4.455	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 2
Big Hut	3–6	2.545	+3.5	+0.318	3 / 0
Fischer	3–6	3.000	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Krajcik	4–5	5.364	-5.0	-0.455	0 / 2
Horgan	9–0	7.091	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Adam	3–6	4.091	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Joe Shore	4–5	5.455	-3.5	-0.318	2 / 3

2017 week 9 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 9