2017 week 3 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 19 – 25, 2017

j-mart

115.34

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Miller

124.55

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.90 points left. Optimal 117.24 vs. actual 115.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	28.80	Kirk Cousins	28.80
WR	Alshon Jeffery	7.60	Alshon Jeffery	7.60
WR	Martavis Bryant	4.00	Martavis Bryant	4.00
WR	Kenny Golladay	3.50	Ted Ginn Jr.	13.14
RB	Todd Gurley	37.40	Todd Gurley	37.40
RB	Melvin Gordon III	13.90	Melvin Gordon III	13.90
TE	Jordan Reed	0.00	Jordan Reed	0.00
W/R/T	Ted Ginn Jr.	13.14	Branden Oliver	5.40
K	Wil Lutz	12.00	Wil Lutz	12.00
DEF	Ravens	-5.00	Ravens	-5.00

Carried by One Guy: Todd Gurley, 37.40 points (31.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Russell Wilson scored 35.52; zeroing that score creates a win.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.16 points left. Optimal 138.71 vs. actual 124.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	35.52	Russell Wilson	35.52
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	29.40	Davante Adams	7.50
WR	Davante Adams	7.50	Jamison Crowder	6.66
WR	Jamison Crowder	6.66	Larry Fitzgerald	29.40
RB	Devonta Freeman	23.30	Devonta Freeman	23.30
RB	Jay Ajayi	3.50	Javorius Allen	5.30
TE	Jack Doyle	0.60	Ben Watson	8.70
W/R/T	Mike Gillislee	3.10	Danny Amendola	7.36
K	Greg Zuerlein	10.00	Greg Zuerlein	10.00
DEF	Broncos	4.97	Broncos	4.97

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 35.52 points (28.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 19 – 25, 2017

Demich

81.79

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Kev

144.76

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.54 points left. Optimal 85.33 vs. actual 81.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	13.66	Matt Ryan	13.66
WR	Julio Jones	12.60	Julio Jones	12.60
WR	Jarvis Landry	7.80	Jarvis Landry	7.80
WR	Amari Cooper	1.10	Tyler Lockett	4.64
RB	Ameer Abdullah	10.10	Ameer Abdullah	10.10
RB	Dalvin Cook	25.40	Dalvin Cook	25.40
TE	Jason Witten	0.80	Jason Witten	0.80
W/R/T	Tyrell Williams	2.50	Tyrell Williams	2.50
K	Dan Bailey	4.00	Dan Bailey	4.00
DEF	Rams	3.83	Rams	3.83

Carried by One Guy: Dalvin Cook, 25.40 points (31.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.14 points left. Optimal 156.90 vs. actual 144.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Siemian	7.56	Marcus Mariota	19.70
WR	Chris Hogan	20.80	Chris Hogan	20.80
WR	T.Y. Hilton	26.80	T.Y. Hilton	26.80
WR	Stefon Diggs	35.30	Stefon Diggs	35.30
RB	LeSean McCoy	10.40	Ezekiel Elliott	16.90
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	16.90	LeSean McCoy	10.40
TE	Kyle Rudolph	0.90	Kyle Rudolph	0.90
W/R/T	Tevin Coleman	10.40	Tevin Coleman	10.40
K	Graham Gano	8.00	Graham Gano	8.00
DEF	Packers	7.70	Packers	7.70

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 35.30 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 19 – 25, 2017

Big Hut

101.66

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Krajcik

91.86

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.12 points left. Optimal 108.78 vs. actual 101.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	17.52	Eli Manning	24.64
WR	Demaryius Thomas	12.80	Demaryius Thomas	12.80
WR	Golden Tate	15.50	Golden Tate	15.50
WR	Mike Evans	10.20	Mike Evans	10.20
RB	Leonard Fournette	15.50	Leonard Fournette	15.50
RB	Joe Mixon	11.60	Joe Mixon	11.60
TE	Delanie Walker	5.10	Delanie Walker	5.10
W/R/T	Paul Richardson	10.00	Paul Richardson	10.00
K	Stephen Gostkowski	4.00	Stephen Gostkowski	4.00
DEF	Cardinals	-0.56	Cardinals	-0.56

Carried by One Guy: Jameis Winston, 17.52 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.90 points left. Optimal 120.76 vs. actual 91.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	20.80	Drew Brees	20.80
WR	Dez Bryant	8.20	Antonio Brown	24.00
WR	Antonio Brown	24.00	Mohamed Sanu	10.80
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	11.10	DeAndre Hopkins	11.10
RB	Darren Sproles	1.10	Alvin Kamara	11.70
RB	Alvin Kamara	11.70	Frank Gore	12.20
TE	Hunter Henry	0.00	Hunter Henry	0.00
W/R/T	Michael Crabtree	1.20	DeSean Jackson	16.40
K	Justin Tucker	1.00	Justin Tucker	1.00
DEF	Chiefs	12.76	Chiefs	12.76

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 24.00 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jameis Winston scored 17.52; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 19 – 25, 2017

Josh

106.76

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Horgan

146.14

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.22 points left. Optimal 120.98 vs. actual 106.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	3.48	Ben Roethlisberger	12.00
WR	A.J. Green	24.10	A.J. Green	24.10
WR	Jermaine Kearse	5.70	Jermaine Kearse	5.70
WR	Brandin Cooks	31.60	Brandin Cooks	31.60
RB	C.J. Anderson	5.30	C.J. Anderson	5.30
RB	Christian McCaffrey	18.26	Christian McCaffrey	18.26
TE	Travis Kelce	0.60	Martellus Bennett	2.70
W/R/T	James White	3.30	Derrick Henry	6.90
K	Ryan Succop	15.00	Ryan Succop	15.00
DEF	Panthers	-0.58	Panthers	-0.58

Carried by One Guy: Brandin Cooks, 31.60 points (29.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.40 points left. Optimal 182.54 vs. actual 146.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	37.72	Tom Brady	37.72
WR	DeVante Parker	17.60	Jaron Brown	9.70
WR	J.J. Nelson	0.00	DeVante Parker	17.60
WR	Tyreek Hill	17.70	Tyreek Hill	17.70
RB	Marshawn Lynch	3.10	Le'Veon Bell	18.80
RB	Le'Veon Bell	18.80	Chris Thompson	29.80
TE	Rob Gronkowski	18.90	Rob Gronkowski	18.90
W/R/T	Zach Ertz	13.50	Zach Ertz	13.50
K	Matt Bryant	14.00	Matt Bryant	14.00
DEF	Eagles	4.82	Eagles	4.82

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 37.72 points (25.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 19 – 25, 2017

Martin

78.31

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Adam

137.51

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.20 points left. Optimal 105.51 vs. actual 78.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	26.82	Aaron Rodgers	26.82
WR	Jeremy Maclin	1.30	Keenan Allen	8.60
WR	Keenan Allen	8.60	Marqise Lee	8.54
WR	Marqise Lee	8.54	Jordan Matthews	7.60
RB	Lamar Miller	6.80	Lamar Miller	6.80
RB	Jalen Richard	1.38	Jalen Richard	1.38
TE	Evan Engram	7.00	Evan Engram	7.00
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	3.90	Sterling Shepard	24.80
K	Mason Crosby	7.00	Mason Crosby	7.00
DEF	Patriots	6.97	Patriots	6.97

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 26.82 points (34.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.80 points left. Optimal 142.31 vs. actual 137.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	22.92	Dak Prescott	22.92
WR	Jordy Nelson	20.20	Emmanuel Sanders	11.00
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	11.00	Doug Baldwin	23.50
WR	Doug Baldwin	23.50	Jordy Nelson	20.20
RB	Theo Riddick	5.80	Ty Montgomery II	9.00
RB	Ty Montgomery II	9.00	Jordan Howard	31.10
TE	Coby Fleener	2.60	Coby Fleener	2.60
W/R/T	Jordan Howard	31.10	Brandon Marshall	10.60
K	Chris Boswell	5.00	Chris Boswell	5.00
DEF	Steelers	6.39	Steelers	6.39

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Howard, 31.10 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 19 – 25, 2017

Fischer

101.06

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

106.50

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 48.34 points left. Optimal 149.40 vs. actual 101.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	5.22	Matthew Stafford	16.46
WR	Adam Thielen	12.30	Rishard Matthews	17.70
WR	Sammy Watkins	27.60	Sammy Watkins	27.60
WR	Michael Thomas	18.20	Michael Thomas	18.20
RB	Isaiah Crowell	6.40	LeGarrette Blount	12.70
RB	Tarik Cohen	12.20	DeMarco Murray	20.50
TE	Austin Hooper	1.40	Austin Hooper	1.40
W/R/T	Chris Johnson	2.60	Pierre Garcon	19.70
K	Giorgio Tavecchio	3.00	Giorgio Tavecchio	3.00
DEF	Jaguars	12.14	Jaguars	12.14

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Sammy Watkins, 27.60 points (27.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kareem Hunt scored 26.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 42.96 points left. Optimal 149.46 vs. actual 106.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	8.28	Carson Wentz	13.24
WR	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	2.90	Odell Beckham Jr.	24.40
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	24.40	Allen Hurns	9.50
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	1.80	Geronimo Allison	17.20
RB	Carlos Hyde	22.90	Carlos Hyde	22.90
RB	Kareem Hunt	26.80	Kareem Hunt	26.80
TE	Eric Ebron	1.90	Jimmy Graham	10.70
W/R/T	Chris Carson	12.20	Duke Johnson	19.40
K	Dustin Hopkins	7.00	Dustin Hopkins	7.00
DEF	Seahawks	-1.68	Seahawks	-1.68

Carried by One Guy: Kareem Hunt, 26.80 points (24.8% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–2	2.000	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Demich	2–1	1.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	1–2	1.818	-3.5	-0.318	0 / 1
Miller	2–1	1.455	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	1–2	0.545	+2.5	+0.227	1 / 0
Josh	1–2	1.545	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Big Hut	2–1	1.091	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 0
Fischer	1–2	0.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	0–3	0.909	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Horgan	3–0	2.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	2–1	2.182	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	2–1	1.091	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 0

2017 week 3 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 3