2017 week 6 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 10 – 16, 2017

j-mart

128.73

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

100.02

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.44 points left. Optimal 147.17 vs. actual 128.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	29.80	Kirk Cousins	29.80
WR	Alshon Jeffery	9.10	Alshon Jeffery	9.10
WR	Martavis Bryant	3.70	Rishard Matthews	8.90
WR	Michael Thomas	2.60	Ted Ginn Jr.	15.54
RB	LeGarrette Blount	8.70	LeGarrette Blount	8.70
RB	Melvin Gordon III	31.50	Melvin Gordon III	31.50
TE	Jordan Reed	5.70	Vernon Davis	6.00
W/R/T	Alex Collins	7.40	Alex Collins	7.40
K	Dustin Hopkins	7.00	Dustin Hopkins	7.00
DEF	Ravens	23.23	Ravens	23.23

Carried by One Guy: Melvin Gordon III, 31.50 points (24.5% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.28 points left. Optimal 115.30 vs. actual 100.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	2.44	Eli Manning	9.12
WR	Golden Tate	19.10	Golden Tate	19.10
WR	Randall Cobb	4.30	Kenny Stills	12.90
WR	Mike Evans	17.00	Mike Evans	17.00
RB	Charcandrick West	1.40	Charcandrick West	1.40
RB	Leonard Fournette	22.80	Leonard Fournette	22.80
TE	Delanie Walker	3.40	Delanie Walker	3.40
W/R/T	Demaryius Thomas	18.30	Demaryius Thomas	18.30
K	Stephen Gostkowski	5.00	Stephen Gostkowski	5.00
DEF	Cardinals	6.28	Cardinals	6.28

Carried by One Guy: Leonard Fournette, 22.80 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Melvin Gordon III scored 31.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 10 – 16, 2017

Demich

81.62

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Josh

90.58

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 81.62 vs. actual 81.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	11.92	Matt Ryan	11.92
WR	Julio Jones	10.20	Julio Jones	10.20
WR	Jarvis Landry	16.20	Jarvis Landry	16.20
WR	Amari Cooper	5.30	Amari Cooper	5.30
RB	Andre Ellington	0.00	Andre Ellington	0.00
RB	Ameer Abdullah	5.40	Ameer Abdullah	5.40
TE	Zach Miller	9.50	Zach Miller	9.50
W/R/T	J.J. Nelson	1.60	J.J. Nelson	1.60
K	Chandler Catanzaro	4.00	Chandler Catanzaro	4.00
DEF	Lions	17.50	Lions	17.50

Carried by One Guy: Lions, 17.50 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ryan Succop scored 20.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.60 points left. Optimal 116.18 vs. actual 90.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	14.32	Philip Rivers	14.32
WR	Brandin Cooks	12.30	Brandin Cooks	12.30
WR	Willie Snead IV	1.60	Willie Snead IV	1.60
WR	Robbie Chosen	9.60	Robbie Chosen	9.60
RB	C.J. Anderson	1.70	James White	6.50
RB	Christian McCaffrey	18.10	Christian McCaffrey	18.10
TE	Travis Kelce	5.70	Travis Kelce	5.70
W/R/T	Elijah McGuire	2.20	Derrick Henry	23.00
K	Ryan Succop	20.00	Ryan Succop	20.00
DEF	Commanders	5.06	Commanders	5.06

Carried by One Guy: Ryan Succop, 20.00 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 10 – 16, 2017

Kev

104.95

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Martin

98.18

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.20 points left. Optimal 110.15 vs. actual 104.95.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	21.38	Carson Wentz	21.38
WR	Chris Hogan	2.40	Chris Hogan	2.40
WR	T.Y. Hilton	2.40	Devin Funchess	5.10
WR	Devin Funchess	5.10	Josh Doctson	7.60
RB	Mark Ingram II	29.50	Mark Ingram II	29.50
RB	Tevin Coleman	10.10	Tevin Coleman	10.10
TE	Kyle Rudolph	7.20	Kyle Rudolph	7.20
W/R/T	Jaron Brown	3.50	Jaron Brown	3.50
K	Graham Gano	11.00	Graham Gano	11.00
DEF	Patriots	12.37	Patriots	12.37

Carried by One Guy: Mark Ingram II, 29.50 points (28.1% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.68 points left. Optimal 109.86 vs. actual 98.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	0.72	Aaron Rodgers	0.72
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	18.60	Marvin Jones Jr.	18.60
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	14.40	Kelvin Benjamin	14.40
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	4.92	Marqise Lee	12.50
RB	Lamar Miller	9.60	Lamar Miller	9.60
RB	Duke Johnson	5.40	Duke Johnson	5.40
TE	Evan Engram	16.70	Evan Engram	16.70
W/R/T	Marqise Lee	12.50	Cameron Brate	16.60
K	Wil Lutz	11.00	Wil Lutz	11.00
DEF	Falcons	4.34	Falcons	4.34

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Marvin Jones Jr., 18.60 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Mark Ingram II scored 29.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 10 – 16, 2017

Krajcik

137.69

Rank 2; -4.5 luck points

Horgan

148.79

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.24 points left. Optimal 143.93 vs. actual 137.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	11.54	Alex Smith	15.14
WR	Michael Crabtree	14.20	Antonio Brown	27.50
WR	Antonio Brown	27.50	DeSean Jackson	11.30
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	8.90	Michael Crabtree	14.20
RB	Jerick McKinnon	22.40	Jerick McKinnon	22.40
RB	Kareem Hunt	13.50	Kareem Hunt	13.50
TE	Hunter Henry	11.50	Hunter Henry	11.50
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	11.30	Dion Lewis	11.54
K	Justin Tucker	11.00	Justin Tucker	11.00
DEF	Chiefs	5.85	Chiefs	5.85

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 27.50 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Le'Veon Bell scored 28.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.50 points left. Optimal 160.29 vs. actual 148.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	16.18	Tom Brady	16.18
WR	Jermaine Kearse	9.90	Jermaine Kearse	9.90
WR	Will Fuller V	13.98	Will Fuller V	13.98
WR	Tyreek Hill	5.78	Tyreek Hill	5.78
RB	Marshawn Lynch	6.30	Le'Veon Bell	28.60
RB	Le'Veon Bell	28.60	Chris Thompson	17.80
TE	Zach Ertz	14.80	Zach Ertz	14.80
W/R/T	Rob Gronkowski	23.30	Rob Gronkowski	23.30
K	Matt Bryant	7.00	Matt Bryant	7.00
DEF	Texans	22.95	Texans	22.95

Carried by One Guy: Le'Veon Bell, 28.60 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 10 – 16, 2017

Fischer

130.19

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Adam

87.18

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.52 points left. Optimal 136.71 vs. actual 130.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	16.88	Matthew Stafford	16.88
WR	Mike Wallace	4.50	Adam Thielen	14.10
WR	Adam Thielen	14.10	Nelson Agholor	13.50
WR	Nelson Agholor	13.50	Pierre Garcon	8.00
RB	DeMarco Murray	16.70	DeMarco Murray	16.70
RB	Todd Gurley	14.50	Todd Gurley	14.50
TE	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	12.60	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	12.60
W/R/T	Pierre Garcon	8.00	Tarik Cohen	11.02
K	Giorgio Tavecchio	4.00	Giorgio Tavecchio	4.00
DEF	Rams	25.41	Rams	25.41

Carried by One Guy: Rams, 25.41 points (19.5% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.80 points left. Optimal 110.98 vs. actual 87.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jacoby Brissett	13.98	Jacoby Brissett	13.98
WR	Jordy Nelson	9.00	Emmanuel Sanders	10.10
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	10.10	Taylor Gabriel	5.90
WR	Taylor Gabriel	5.90	Jordy Nelson	9.00
RB	Theo Riddick	7.80	Theo Riddick	7.80
RB	Jordan Howard	20.10	Jordan Howard	20.10
TE	Ryan Griffin	8.70	Ryan Griffin	8.70
W/R/T	Ty Montgomery II	3.60	Adrian Peterson	27.40
K	Chris Boswell	4.00	Chris Boswell	4.00
DEF	Panthers	4.00	Panthers	4.00

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Howard, 20.10 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 10 – 16, 2017

Miller

135.80

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

103.80

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.90 points left. Optimal 143.70 vs. actual 135.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	20.92	Carson Palmer	20.92
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	24.80	Davante Adams	13.90
WR	Danny Amendola	5.90	John Brown	13.80
WR	Davante Adams	13.90	Larry Fitzgerald	24.80
RB	Doug Martin	14.90	Doug Martin	14.90
RB	Devonta Freeman	8.90	Devonta Freeman	8.90
TE	Jack Doyle	12.50	Jack Doyle	12.50
W/R/T	Jay Ajayi	15.00	Jay Ajayi	15.00
K	Greg Zuerlein	10.00	Greg Zuerlein	10.00
DEF	Broncos	8.98	Broncos	8.98

Carried by One Guy: Larry Fitzgerald, 24.80 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 103.80 vs. actual 103.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	23.30	Deshaun Watson	23.30
WR	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	3.80	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	3.80
WR	Keenan Allen	7.00	Keenan Allen	7.00
WR	Ricardo Louis	4.00	Ricardo Louis	4.00
RB	Carlos Hyde	22.00	Carlos Hyde	22.00
RB	Alvin Kamara	10.20	Alvin Kamara	10.20
TE	Austin Hooper	8.30	Austin Hooper	8.30
W/R/T	Samaje Perine	12.20	Samaje Perine	12.20
K	Harrison Butker	8.00	Harrison Butker	8.00
DEF	Jaguars	5.00	Jaguars	5.00

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 23.30 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–4	3.455	-3.5	-0.318	0 / 3
Demich	2–4	1.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	3–3	4.182	-8.0	-0.727	0 / 2
Miller	4–2	3.182	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	3–3	1.455	+6.5	+0.591	3 / 0
Josh	3–3	2.909	+3.0	+0.273	1 / 1
Big Hut	3–3	2.182	+3.5	+0.318	3 / 0
Fischer	2–4	1.636	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	2–4	3.636	-5.0	-0.455	0 / 2
Horgan	6–0	5.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	3–3	3.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	3–3	3.364	-2.5	-0.227	2 / 1

2017 week 6 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 6