2017 week 5 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 3 – 9, 2017

j-mart

127.91

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Josh

135.29

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.50 points left. Optimal 129.41 vs. actual 127.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	15.32	Andy Dalton	15.32
WR	Mike Wallace	16.80	Alshon Jeffery	4.60
WR	Alshon Jeffery	4.60	Martavis Bryant	5.90
WR	Martavis Bryant	5.90	Mike Wallace	16.80
RB	Todd Gurley	4.00	Melvin Gordon III	33.30
RB	Melvin Gordon III	33.30	Alex Collins	5.50
TE	Jesse James	3.90	Jesse James	3.90
W/R/T	Aaron Jones Sr.	21.90	Aaron Jones Sr.	21.90
K	Stephen Hauschka	9.00	Stephen Hauschka	9.00
DEF	Ravens	13.19	Ravens	13.19

Carried by One Guy: Melvin Gordon III, 33.30 points (26.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: A.J. Green scored 28.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 135.29 vs. actual 135.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	20.82	Philip Rivers	20.82
WR	A.J. Green	28.40	A.J. Green	28.40
WR	Brandin Cooks	11.00	Brandin Cooks	11.00
WR	Robbie Chosen	2.60	Robbie Chosen	2.60
RB	James White	9.50	James White	9.50
RB	Christian McCaffrey	12.56	Christian McCaffrey	12.56
TE	Travis Kelce	13.80	Travis Kelce	13.80
W/R/T	Wayne Gallman	10.70	Wayne Gallman	10.70
K	Ryan Succop	5.00	Ryan Succop	5.00
DEF	Dolphins	20.91	Dolphins	20.91

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Green, 28.40 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 3 – 9, 2017

Demich

74.58

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Martin

90.82

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.00 points left. Optimal 89.58 vs. actual 74.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	15.64	Carson Palmer	15.64
WR	Jarvis Landry	13.46	Cole Beasley	16.30
WR	Amari Cooper	1.30	Jarvis Landry	13.46
WR	Tyler Lockett	5.00	Tyler Lockett	5.00
RB	Andre Ellington	10.80	Andre Ellington	10.80
RB	Ameer Abdullah	3.90	Ameer Abdullah	3.90
TE	Jason Witten	8.10	Jason Witten	8.10
W/R/T	J.D. McKissic	5.10	J.D. McKissic	5.10
K	Dan Bailey	8.00	Dan Bailey	8.00
DEF	Lions	3.28	Lions	3.28

Carried by One Guy: Carson Palmer, 15.64 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Rodgers scored 24.04; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.90 points left. Optimal 112.72 vs. actual 90.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	24.04	Aaron Rodgers	24.04
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	13.80	Kendall Wright	6.60
WR	Marqise Lee	5.90	Kelvin Benjamin	13.80
WR	Sterling Shepard	1.40	Jeremy Maclin	7.30
RB	Lamar Miller	9.90	Lamar Miller	9.90
RB	Duke Johnson	15.80	Duke Johnson	15.80
TE	Evan Engram	0.00	Cameron Brate	15.30
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	8.40	Marvin Jones Jr.	8.40
K	Mason Crosby	2.00	Mason Crosby	2.00
DEF	Bills	9.58	Bills	9.58

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 24.04 points (26.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 3 – 9, 2017

Kev

147.76

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Miller

95.84

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.50 points left. Optimal 152.26 vs. actual 147.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	29.26	Carson Wentz	29.26
WR	Chris Hogan	17.40	Chris Hogan	17.40
WR	T.Y. Hilton	23.20	T.Y. Hilton	23.20
WR	Stefon Diggs	0.90	Jaron Brown	5.40
RB	LeSean McCoy	11.90	Ezekiel Elliott	15.70
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	15.70	LeSean McCoy	11.90
TE	Kyle Rudolph	13.50	Kyle Rudolph	13.50
W/R/T	Devin Funchess	14.80	Devin Funchess	14.80
K	Graham Gano	9.00	Graham Gano	9.00
DEF	Eagles	12.10	Eagles	12.10

Carried by One Guy: Carson Wentz, 29.26 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.00 points left. Optimal 109.84 vs. actual 95.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	11.52	Russell Wilson	11.52
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	8.10	Davante Adams	22.10
WR	Danny Amendola	12.72	Larry Fitzgerald	8.10
WR	Davante Adams	22.10	Danny Amendola	12.72
RB	Mike Gillislee	5.20	Doug Martin	14.70
RB	Jay Ajayi	6.90	Javorius Allen	16.50
TE	Ben Watson	1.20	Ben Watson	1.20
W/R/T	Doug Martin	14.70	John Brown	9.60
K	Greg Zuerlein	4.00	Greg Zuerlein	4.00
DEF	Jets	9.40	Jets	9.40

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 22.10 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 3 – 9, 2017

Fischer

72.44

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

119.22

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.00 points left. Optimal 79.44 vs. actual 72.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	15.16	Matthew Stafford	15.16
WR	Pierre Garcon	13.40	Rishard Matthews	4.60
WR	Adam Thielen	7.00	Adam Thielen	7.00
WR	Sammy Watkins	0.00	Pierre Garcon	13.40
RB	DeMarco Murray	6.90	DeMarco Murray	6.90
RB	Bilal Powell	5.30	Isaiah Crowell	7.70
TE	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	11.90	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	11.90
W/R/T	LeGarrette Blount	7.40	LeGarrette Blount	7.40
K	Giorgio Tavecchio	5.00	Giorgio Tavecchio	5.00
DEF	Raiders	0.38	Raiders	0.38

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 15.16 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.70 points left. Optimal 129.92 vs. actual 119.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	14.62	Tom Brady	14.62
WR	DeVante Parker	1.10	Jermaine Kearse	11.80
WR	Will Fuller V	20.18	Will Fuller V	20.18
WR	Tyreek Hill	16.30	Tyreek Hill	16.30
RB	Marshawn Lynch	11.80	Le'Veon Bell	14.30
RB	Le'Veon Bell	14.30	Marshawn Lynch	11.80
TE	Zach Ertz	15.10	Zach Ertz	15.10
W/R/T	Jonathan Stewart	5.90	Jonathan Stewart	5.90
K	Robbie Gould	12.00	Robbie Gould	12.00
DEF	Vikings	7.92	Vikings	7.92

Carried by One Guy: Will Fuller V, 20.18 points (16.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 3 – 9, 2017

Big Hut

107.87

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Adam

86.08

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 107.87 vs. actual 107.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	20.46	Jameis Winston	20.46
WR	Golden Tate	7.30	Golden Tate	7.30
WR	Mike Evans	7.40	Mike Evans	7.40
WR	Paul Richardson	5.00	Paul Richardson	5.00
RB	Leonard Fournette	32.90	Leonard Fournette	32.90
RB	Joe Mixon	11.10	Joe Mixon	11.10
TE	Delanie Walker	4.00	Delanie Walker	4.00
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	4.90	Randall Cobb	4.90
K	Stephen Gostkowski	13.00	Stephen Gostkowski	13.00
DEF	Cardinals	1.81	Cardinals	1.81

Carried by One Guy: Leonard Fournette, 32.90 points (30.5% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.40 points left. Optimal 89.48 vs. actual 86.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	29.74	Dak Prescott	29.74
WR	Jordy Nelson	9.40	Doug Baldwin	5.70
WR	Doug Baldwin	5.70	Adam Humphries	6.60
WR	Adam Humphries	6.60	Jordy Nelson	9.40
RB	Theo Riddick	7.30	Theo Riddick	7.30
RB	Jordan Howard	7.60	Jordan Howard	7.60
TE	Charles Clay	4.10	Charles Clay	4.10
W/R/T	Brandon Marshall	2.50	Cooper Kupp	5.90
K	Chris Boswell	7.00	Chris Boswell	7.00
DEF	Steelers	6.14	Steelers	6.14

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 29.74 points (34.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Leonard Fournette scored 32.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 3 – 9, 2017

Krajcik

154.06

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

139.37

Rank 3; -3.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.82 points left. Optimal 176.88 vs. actual 154.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Alex Smith	28.86	Alex Smith	28.86
WR	Dez Bryant	13.70	Antonio Brown	22.70
WR	Antonio Brown	22.70	DeAndre Hopkins	25.20
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	25.20	Michael Crabtree	17.20
RB	Frank Gore	10.10	Jerick McKinnon	24.62
RB	Latavius Murray	5.30	Frank Gore	10.10
TE	Hunter Henry	11.70	Hunter Henry	11.70
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	15.10	DeSean Jackson	15.10
K	Justin Tucker	11.00	Justin Tucker	11.00
DEF	Chiefs	10.40	Chiefs	10.40

Carried by One Guy: Alex Smith, 28.86 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.91 points left. Optimal 151.28 vs. actual 139.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	35.54	Deshaun Watson	35.54
WR	Keenan Allen	8.70	Keenan Allen	8.70
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	19.40	Odell Beckham Jr.	19.40
WR	Allen Hurns	3.10	Allen Hurns	3.10
RB	Carlos Hyde	2.30	Carlos Hyde	2.30
RB	Kareem Hunt	15.10	Kareem Hunt	15.10
TE	Jimmy Graham	12.70	Jimmy Graham	12.70
W/R/T	Nelson Agholor	17.30	Nelson Agholor	17.30
K	Jake Elliott	9.00	Jake Elliott	9.00
DEF	Seahawks	16.23	Jaguars	28.14

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 35.54 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Alex Smith scored 28.86; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–4	2.818	-3.5	-0.318	0 / 3
Demich	2–3	1.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	2–3	3.636	-8.0	-0.727	0 / 2
Miller	3–2	2.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	3–2	1.182	+6.5	+0.591	3 / 0
Josh	2–3	2.727	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Big Hut	3–2	1.818	+3.5	+0.318	3 / 0
Fischer	1–4	0.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	2–3	2.727	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Horgan	5–0	4.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	3–2	3.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	3–2	2.909	-2.5	-0.227	2 / 1

2017 week 5 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 5