2017 week 8 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 24 – 30, 2017

j-mart

138.09

Rank 3; -3.5 luck points

Krajcik

139.80

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.00 points left. Optimal 140.09 vs. actual 138.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	10.52	Kirk Cousins	10.52
WR	Ted Ginn Jr.	8.42	Alshon Jeffery	15.20
WR	Alshon Jeffery	15.20	Michael Thomas	11.20
WR	Michael Thomas	11.20	Ted Ginn Jr.	8.42
RB	LeGarrette Blount	11.70	LeGarrette Blount	11.70
RB	Melvin Gordon III	22.40	Melvin Gordon III	22.40
TE	Jordan Reed	1.00	Vernon Davis	3.00
W/R/T	Alex Collins	17.30	Alex Collins	17.30
K	Stephen Hauschka	11.00	Stephen Hauschka	11.00
DEF	Ravens	29.35	Ravens	29.35

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Ravens, 29.35 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DeAndre Hopkins scored 34.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.62 points left. Optimal 156.42 vs. actual 139.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	11.76	Alex Smith	13.38
WR	DeSean Jackson	5.20	Antonio Brown	9.50
WR	Michael Crabtree	10.80	Mohamed Sanu	16.40
WR	Antonio Brown	9.50	Michael Crabtree	10.80
RB	Jerick McKinnon	23.20	Jerick McKinnon	23.20
RB	Kareem Hunt	8.30	Frank Gore	12.10
TE	Hunter Henry	2.10	Hunter Henry	2.10
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	34.40	DeAndre Hopkins	34.40
K	Justin Tucker	13.00	Justin Tucker	13.00
DEF	Chiefs	21.54	Chiefs	21.54

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 34.40 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 24 – 30, 2017

Demich

97.81

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Fischer

72.25

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 97.81 vs. actual 97.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	15.86	Matt Ryan	15.86
WR	Julio Jones	8.90	Julio Jones	8.90
WR	Jarvis Landry	5.88	Jarvis Landry	5.88
WR	Tyler Lockett	17.74	Tyler Lockett	17.74
RB	Chris Thompson	12.62	Chris Thompson	12.62
RB	Ameer Abdullah	5.30	Ameer Abdullah	5.30
TE	Jason Witten	4.60	Jason Witten	4.60
W/R/T	Bennie Fowler	4.50	Bennie Fowler	4.50
K	Matt Prater	16.00	Matt Prater	16.00
DEF	Lions	6.41	Lions	6.41

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Lockett, 17.74 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.18 points left. Optimal 74.43 vs. actual 72.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	14.52	Tyrod Taylor	16.70
WR	Adam Thielen	18.30	Adam Thielen	18.30
WR	Nelson Agholor	4.10	Nelson Agholor	4.10
WR	John Ross	0.00	John Ross	0.00
RB	Javorius Allen	6.20	Javorius Allen	6.20
RB	Tarik Cohen	8.20	Tarik Cohen	8.20
TE	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	5.30	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	5.30
W/R/T	Bilal Powell	7.60	Bilal Powell	7.60
K	Jake Elliott	8.00	Jake Elliott	8.00
DEF	Texans	0.03	Texans	0.03

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 18.30 points (25.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 24 – 30, 2017

Kev

125.14

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

104.25

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.40 points left. Optimal 125.54 vs. actual 125.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	17.14	Carson Wentz	17.14
WR	Chris Hogan	8.50	Chris Hogan	8.50
WR	Devin Funchess	2.10	T.Y. Hilton	2.50
WR	Stefon Diggs	4.60	Stefon Diggs	4.60
RB	LeSean McCoy	28.30	Ezekiel Elliott	27.90
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	27.90	LeSean McCoy	28.30
TE	Kyle Rudolph	11.70	Kyle Rudolph	11.70
W/R/T	Mark Ingram II	14.90	Mark Ingram II	14.90
K	Graham Gano	4.00	Graham Gano	4.00
DEF	Steelers	6.00	Steelers	6.00

Carried by One Guy: LeSean McCoy, 28.30 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.60 points left. Optimal 105.85 vs. actual 104.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	3.70	Jameis Winston	3.70
WR	Demaryius Thomas	9.10	Demaryius Thomas	9.10
WR	Mike Evans	8.50	Golden Tate	10.10
WR	Paul Richardson	27.50	Paul Richardson	27.50
RB	Rob Kelley	7.90	Rob Kelley	7.90
RB	Joe Mixon	10.40	Joe Mixon	10.40
TE	Jared Cook	7.70	Jared Cook	7.70
W/R/T	Kenny Stills	9.00	Kenny Stills	9.00
K	Stephen Gostkowski	12.00	Stephen Gostkowski	12.00
DEF	Bears	8.45	Bears	8.45

Carried by One Guy: Paul Richardson, 27.50 points (26.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: LeSean McCoy scored 28.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 24 – 30, 2017

Miller

87.04

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Josh

114.37

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.98 points left. Optimal 107.02 vs. actual 87.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	37.08	Russell Wilson	37.08
WR	Pierre Garcon	2.70	Jamison Crowder	19.98
WR	Danny Amendola	3.24	Pierre Garcon	2.70
WR	Marquise Goodwin	0.00	Danny Amendola	3.24
RB	Devonta Freeman	6.60	Devonta Freeman	6.60
RB	Jay Ajayi	6.10	Jay Ajayi	6.10
TE	O.J. Howard	2.60	O.J. Howard	2.60
W/R/T	Doug Martin	8.00	Doug Martin	8.00
K	Kai Forbath	15.00	Kai Forbath	15.00
DEF	Broncos	5.72	Broncos	5.72

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 37.08 points (42.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.00 points left. Optimal 120.37 vs. actual 114.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	10.48	Ben Roethlisberger	16.48
WR	A.J. Green	10.20	A.J. Green	10.20
WR	Brandin Cooks	5.10	Brandin Cooks	5.10
WR	Robbie Chosen	21.50	Robbie Chosen	21.50
RB	C.J. Anderson	9.00	C.J. Anderson	9.00
RB	Christian McCaffrey	7.70	Christian McCaffrey	7.70
TE	Travis Kelce	24.80	Travis Kelce	24.80
W/R/T	James White	11.20	James White	11.20
K	Randy Bullock	5.00	Randy Bullock	5.00
DEF	Vikings	9.39	Vikings	9.39

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 24.80 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 24 – 30, 2017

Horgan

107.94

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Adam

86.45

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.44 points left. Optimal 136.38 vs. actual 107.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	19.52	Matthew Stafford	20.02
WR	Amari Cooper	7.70	Amari Cooper	7.70
WR	Josh Doctson	6.60	Will Fuller V	29.54
WR	Tyreek Hill	2.80	Josh Doctson	6.60
RB	Matt Forte	8.20	Le'Veon Bell	13.10
RB	Le'Veon Bell	13.10	Jonathan Stewart	9.40
TE	Rob Gronkowski	14.20	Rob Gronkowski	14.20
W/R/T	Zach Ertz	11.40	Zach Ertz	11.40
K	Matt Bryant	12.00	Matt Bryant	12.00
DEF	Seahawks	12.42	Seahawks	12.42

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 19.52 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 86.45 vs. actual 86.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	7.32	Dak Prescott	7.32
WR	Brandon LaFell	6.40	Brandon LaFell	6.40
WR	Doug Baldwin	8.40	Doug Baldwin	8.40
WR	Brandon Coleman	5.90	Brandon Coleman	5.90
RB	Theo Riddick	5.50	Theo Riddick	5.50
RB	Jordan Howard	15.60	Jordan Howard	15.60
TE	Tyler Kroft	7.10	Tyler Kroft	7.10
W/R/T	Jalen Richard	6.64	Jalen Richard	6.64
K	Chris Boswell	8.00	Chris Boswell	8.00
DEF	Bengals	15.59	Bengals	15.59

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Howard, 15.60 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 24 – 30, 2017

Martin

147.22

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

112.90

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.50 points left. Optimal 153.72 vs. actual 147.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	18.72	Andy Dalton	18.72
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	17.80	Marvin Jones Jr.	17.80
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	11.40	Kelvin Benjamin	11.40
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	30.80	JuJu Smith-Schuster	30.80
RB	Lamar Miller	20.80	Lamar Miller	20.80
RB	Marlon Mack	14.50	Marlon Mack	14.50
TE	Cameron Brate	8.40	Cameron Brate	8.40
W/R/T	Duke Johnson	6.30	Jeremy Maclin	12.80
K	Wil Lutz	10.00	Wil Lutz	10.00
DEF	Saints	8.50	Saints	8.50

Carried by One Guy: JuJu Smith-Schuster, 30.80 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 48.22 points left. Optimal 161.12 vs. actual 112.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	12.56	Deshaun Watson	34.78
WR	Dez Bryant	5.90	Dez Bryant	5.90
WR	Keenan Allen	8.10	Keenan Allen	8.10
WR	Jordan Matthews	3.60	Jordan Matthews	3.60
RB	Carlos Hyde	6.70	Isaiah Crowell	17.80
RB	Alvin Kamara	15.10	Alvin Kamara	15.10
TE	Jimmy Graham	17.90	Jimmy Graham	17.90
W/R/T	Wendell Smallwood	1.90	DeAndre Washington	16.80
K	Harrison Butker	20.00	Harrison Butker	20.00
DEF	Eagles	21.14	Eagles	21.14

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Eagles, 21.14 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–6	4.636	-7.0	-0.636	0 / 4
Demich	4–4	2.636	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 0
Kev	5–3	5.909	-8.0	-0.727	0 / 2
Miller	5–3	3.545	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0
Martin	4–4	2.545	+6.5	+0.591	3 / 0
Josh	4–4	4.182	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 2
Big Hut	3–5	2.545	+3.5	+0.318	3 / 0
Fischer	3–5	2.455	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	4–4	5.273	-5.0	-0.455	0 / 2
Horgan	8–0	6.364	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Adam	3–5	3.455	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	3–5	4.455	-3.5	-0.318	2 / 3

2017 week 8 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 8