2017 week 7 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 17 – 23, 2017

j-mart

97.15

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

120.01

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 41.14 points left. Optimal 138.29 vs. actual 97.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	25.92	Kirk Cousins	25.92
WR	Alshon Jeffery	4.70	Rishard Matthews	5.50
WR	Rishard Matthews	5.50	Michael Thomas	11.70
WR	Michael Thomas	11.70	Ted Ginn Jr.	19.74
RB	LeGarrette Blount	2.90	Melvin Gordon III	4.90
RB	Melvin Gordon III	4.90	Aaron Jones Sr.	23.30
TE	Jordan Reed	22.40	Jordan Reed	22.40
W/R/T	Alex Collins	3.00	Vernon Davis	8.70
K	Stephen Hauschka	13.00	Stephen Hauschka	13.00
DEF	Ravens	3.13	Ravens	3.13

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 25.92 points (26.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Todd Gurley scored 25.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.55 points left. Optimal 142.56 vs. actual 120.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	20.02	Derek Carr	32.18
WR	Pierre Garcon	7.40	Adam Thielen	6.60
WR	Adam Thielen	6.60	Nelson Agholor	12.50
WR	Nelson Agholor	12.50	Pierre Garcon	7.40
RB	Bilal Powell	9.30	Bilal Powell	9.30
RB	Todd Gurley	25.40	Todd Gurley	25.40
TE	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	9.60	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	9.60
W/R/T	Chris Ivory	8.70	DeMarco Murray	9.10
K	Jake Elliott	13.00	Jake Elliott	13.00
DEF	Bills	7.49	Rams	17.48

Carried by One Guy: Todd Gurley, 25.40 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 17 – 23, 2017

Demich

104.00

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Big Hut

78.41

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.20 points left. Optimal 105.20 vs. actual 104.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	17.02	Matt Ryan	17.02
WR	Julio Jones	20.40	Julio Jones	20.40
WR	Jarvis Landry	19.12	Jarvis Landry	19.12
WR	Tyler Lockett	8.00	Tyler Lockett	8.00
RB	Giovani Bernard	1.20	Giovani Bernard	1.20
RB	Chris Thompson	15.26	Chris Thompson	15.26
TE	Jason Witten	13.40	Jason Witten	13.40
W/R/T	Robert Woods	8.80	Robert Woods	8.80
K	Dan Bailey	2.00	Dan Bailey	2.00
DEF	Bengals	-1.20	Lions	0.00

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 20.40 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.70 points left. Optimal 115.11 vs. actual 78.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	25.36	Jameis Winston	25.36
WR	Demaryius Thomas	1.90	Kenny Stills	23.50
WR	Randall Cobb	2.50	Mike Evans	18.30
WR	Mike Evans	18.30	Paul Richardson	13.10
RB	Jamaal Charles	4.20	Joe Mixon	8.30
RB	Joe Mixon	8.30	Jamaal Charles	4.20
TE	Ed Dickson	3.30	Delanie Walker	7.80
W/R/T	Rob Kelley	4.00	Rob Kelley	4.00
K	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00
DEF	Cardinals	1.55	Cardinals	1.55

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jameis Winston, 25.36 points (32.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 17 – 23, 2017

Kev

158.05

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh

107.99

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.00 points left. Optimal 159.05 vs. actual 158.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	31.02	Carson Wentz	31.02
WR	Chris Hogan	9.10	Chris Hogan	9.10
WR	T.Y. Hilton	3.70	Jaron Brown	4.70
WR	Devin Funchess	6.10	Devin Funchess	6.10
RB	LeSean McCoy	24.70	Ezekiel Elliott	42.40
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	42.40	LeSean McCoy	24.70
TE	Kyle Rudolph	6.80	Kyle Rudolph	6.80
W/R/T	Mark Ingram II	21.00	Mark Ingram II	21.00
K	Graham Gano	3.00	Graham Gano	3.00
DEF	Steelers	10.23	Steelers	10.23

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 42.40 points (26.8% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.34 points left. Optimal 109.33 vs. actual 107.99.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	15.32	Ben Roethlisberger	16.66
WR	A.J. Green	5.60	A.J. Green	5.60
WR	Brandin Cooks	14.50	Brandin Cooks	14.50
WR	Robbie Chosen	11.00	Robbie Chosen	11.00
RB	C.J. Anderson	6.60	C.J. Anderson	6.60
RB	Christian McCaffrey	8.44	Christian McCaffrey	8.44
TE	Travis Kelce	11.30	Travis Kelce	11.30
W/R/T	James White	13.20	James White	13.20
K	Ryan Succop	14.00	Ryan Succop	14.00
DEF	Vikings	8.03	Vikings	8.03

Carried by One Guy: Philip Rivers, 15.32 points (14.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 17 – 23, 2017

Miller

94.72

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Martin

92.36

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.38 points left. Optimal 97.10 vs. actual 94.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	28.36	Russell Wilson	28.36
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	4.40	Jamison Crowder	4.58
WR	Danny Amendola	3.18	Larry Fitzgerald	4.40
WR	Davante Adams	2.20	Danny Amendola	3.18
RB	Doug Martin	9.00	Doug Martin	9.00
RB	Devonta Freeman	10.50	Devonta Freeman	10.50
TE	Jack Doyle	7.40	Jack Doyle	7.40
W/R/T	Jay Ajayi	9.20	Jay Ajayi	9.20
K	Greg Zuerlein	16.00	Greg Zuerlein	16.00
DEF	Broncos	4.48	Broncos	4.48

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 28.36 points (29.9% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 92.36 vs. actual 92.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	8.92	Marcus Mariota	8.92
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	8.00	Kelvin Benjamin	8.00
WR	Marqise Lee	9.20	Marqise Lee	9.20
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	10.90	JuJu Smith-Schuster	10.90
RB	Duke Johnson	10.10	Duke Johnson	10.10
RB	Marlon Mack	8.60	Marlon Mack	8.60
TE	Evan Engram	15.00	Evan Engram	15.00
W/R/T	Cameron Brate	9.00	Cameron Brate	9.00
K	Wil Lutz	7.00	Wil Lutz	7.00
DEF	Saints	5.64	Saints	5.64

Carried by One Guy: Evan Engram, 15.00 points (16.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Russell Wilson scored 28.36; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 17 – 23, 2017

Horgan

149.22

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

106.74

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.80 points left. Optimal 159.02 vs. actual 149.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	18.46	Tom Brady	18.46
WR	Jermaine Kearse	9.40	Jermaine Kearse	9.40
WR	Amari Cooper	40.50	Amari Cooper	40.50
WR	Tyreek Hill	24.46	Tyreek Hill	24.46
RB	Marshawn Lynch	0.90	Le'Veon Bell	22.70
RB	Le'Veon Bell	22.70	Matt Forte	10.70
TE	Rob Gronkowski	6.60	Rob Gronkowski	6.60
W/R/T	Zach Ertz	17.40	Zach Ertz	17.40
K	Matt Bryant	1.00	Matt Bryant	1.00
DEF	Seahawks	7.80	Seahawks	7.80

Carried by One Guy: Amari Cooper, 40.50 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.20 points left. Optimal 110.94 vs. actual 106.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	7.44	Cam Newton	7.44
WR	Dez Bryant	15.80	Dez Bryant	15.80
WR	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	2.40	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	2.40
WR	Keenan Allen	5.60	Keenan Allen	5.60
RB	Carlos Hyde	10.80	Carlos Hyde	10.80
RB	Alvin Kamara	13.20	Alvin Kamara	13.20
TE	Jimmy Graham	12.60	Jimmy Graham	12.60
W/R/T	Wendell Smallwood	4.90	Isaiah Crowell	9.10
K	Harrison Butker	14.00	Harrison Butker	14.00
DEF	Jaguars	20.00	Jaguars	20.00

Carried by One Guy: Jaguars, 20.00 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 17 – 23, 2017

Krajcik

111.12

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Adam

95.46

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.20 points left. Optimal 129.32 vs. actual 111.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Alex Smith	27.68	Alex Smith	27.68
WR	DeSean Jackson	9.80	Antonio Brown	14.64
WR	Michael Crabtree	9.90	DeSean Jackson	9.80
WR	Antonio Brown	14.64	Michael Crabtree	9.90
RB	Jerick McKinnon	7.20	Latavius Murray	19.30
RB	Kareem Hunt	13.70	Kareem Hunt	13.70
TE	Hunter Henry	9.30	Hunter Henry	9.30
W/R/T	Frank Gore	3.40	Mohamed Sanu	9.50
K	Justin Tucker	14.00	Justin Tucker	14.00
DEF	Chiefs	1.50	Chiefs	1.50

Carried by One Guy: Alex Smith, 27.68 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.20 points left. Optimal 109.66 vs. actual 95.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	29.96	Dak Prescott	29.96
WR	Jordy Nelson	1.80	Doug Baldwin	19.70
WR	Eric Decker	0.00	Taylor Gabriel	2.90
WR	Doug Baldwin	19.70	Cooper Kupp	13.10
RB	Adrian Peterson	3.80	Jordan Howard	6.50
RB	Jordan Howard	6.50	Adrian Peterson	3.80
TE	Austin Hooper	1.10	Austin Hooper	1.10
W/R/T	Ty Montgomery II	2.00	Ty Montgomery II	2.00
K	Chris Boswell	16.00	Chris Boswell	16.00
DEF	Panthers	14.60	Panthers	14.60

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 29.96 points (31.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Alex Smith scored 27.68; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–5	3.818	-3.5	-0.318	0 / 3
Demich	3–4	2.364	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Kev	4–3	5.182	-8.0	-0.727	0 / 2
Miller	5–2	3.364	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0
Martin	3–4	1.545	+6.5	+0.591	3 / 0
Josh	3–4	3.545	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 2
Big Hut	3–4	2.182	+3.5	+0.318	3 / 0
Fischer	3–4	2.455	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	3–4	4.364	-5.0	-0.455	0 / 2
Horgan	7–0	5.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	3–4	3.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	3–4	3.909	-3.0	-0.273	2 / 2

2017 week 7 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Adam lineup

Cumulative totals through week 7