2017 week 12 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 21 – 27, 2017

j-mart

107.84

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Demich

121.27

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.80 points left. Optimal 108.64 vs. actual 107.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	16.08	Kirk Cousins	16.08
WR	Ted Ginn Jr.	10.60	Alshon Jeffery	13.70
WR	Martavis Bryant	13.26	Martavis Bryant	13.26
WR	Michael Thomas	7.70	Ted Ginn Jr.	10.60
RB	Melvin Gordon III	10.30	Melvin Gordon III	10.30
RB	Alex Collins	12.70	Alex Collins	12.70
TE	Vernon Davis	0.00	Vernon Davis	0.00
W/R/T	Alshon Jeffery	13.70	Austin Ekeler	8.50
K	Stephen Hauschka	13.00	Stephen Hauschka	13.00
DEF	Ravens	10.50	Ravens	10.50

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 16.08 points (14.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Julio Jones scored 46.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.04 points left. Optimal 128.31 vs. actual 121.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	18.78	Matt Ryan	18.78
WR	Julio Jones	46.80	Julio Jones	46.80
WR	Jarvis Landry	11.00	Jarvis Landry	11.00
WR	Corey Davis	5.90	Corey Davis	5.90
RB	Ameer Abdullah	5.80	Ameer Abdullah	5.80
RB	Devontae Booker	4.58	Devontae Booker	4.58
TE	Jason Witten	7.90	Jason Witten	7.90
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	0.86	Corey Coleman	7.90
K	Matt Prater	13.00	Matt Prater	13.00
DEF	Lions	6.65	Lions	6.65

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 46.80 points (38.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 21 – 27, 2017

Martin

72.03

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

137.19

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.20 points left. Optimal 77.23 vs. actual 72.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	7.76	Marcus Mariota	7.76
WR	Jeremy Maclin	1.10	Marvin Jones Jr.	27.90
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	27.90	Marqise Lee	1.80
WR	Marqise Lee	1.80	Jeremy Maclin	1.10
RB	Lamar Miller	12.30	Lamar Miller	12.30
RB	Duke Johnson	8.70	Duke Johnson	8.70
TE	Evan Engram	3.30	Evan Engram	3.30
W/R/T	Greg Olsen	1.50	Damien Williams	6.70
K	Kai Forbath	5.00	Kai Forbath	5.00
DEF	Steelers	2.67	Steelers	2.67

Carried by One Guy: Marvin Jones Jr., 27.90 points (38.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.74 points left. Optimal 173.93 vs. actual 137.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	14.34	Drew Brees	14.34
WR	Michael Crabtree	0.00	Antonio Brown	38.08
WR	Antonio Brown	38.08	Mohamed Sanu	16.44
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	18.00	DeAndre Hopkins	18.00
RB	Jerick McKinnon	5.90	Latavius Murray	14.40
RB	Kareem Hunt	3.10	Frank Gore	14.90
TE	Hunter Henry	16.10	Hunter Henry	16.10
W/R/T	Dion Lewis	14.50	Dion Lewis	14.50
K	Justin Tucker	14.00	Justin Tucker	14.00
DEF	Eagles	13.17	Eagles	13.17

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 38.08 points (27.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 21 – 27, 2017

Josh

144.17

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

132.96

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.50 points left. Optimal 152.67 vs. actual 144.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	32.54	Ben Roethlisberger	32.54
WR	A.J. Green	9.10	A.J. Green	9.10
WR	Brandin Cooks	18.40	Brandin Cooks	18.40
WR	Robbie Chosen	31.60	Robbie Chosen	31.60
RB	C.J. Anderson	1.20	Derrick Henry	9.40
RB	Christian McCaffrey	11.14	Christian McCaffrey	11.14
TE	Travis Kelce	5.40	Charles Clay	8.00
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	9.40	Dede Westbrook	7.10
K	Ryan Succop	8.00	Ryan Succop	8.00
DEF	Patriots	17.39	Patriots	17.39

Carried by One Guy: Ben Roethlisberger, 32.54 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.80 points left. Optimal 134.76 vs. actual 132.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	14.02	Derek Carr	15.82
WR	Adam Thielen	12.90	Adam Thielen	12.90
WR	Sammy Watkins	16.20	Sammy Watkins	16.20
WR	Nelson Agholor	16.70	Nelson Agholor	16.70
RB	Todd Gurley	14.80	Todd Gurley	14.80
RB	Samaje Perine	16.50	Samaje Perine	16.50
TE	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	3.70	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	3.70
W/R/T	DeMarco Murray	11.70	DeMarco Murray	11.70
K	Jake Elliott	8.00	Jake Elliott	8.00
DEF	Panthers	18.44	Panthers	18.44

Carried by One Guy: Panthers, 18.44 points (13.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ben Roethlisberger scored 32.54; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 21 – 27, 2017

Miller

130.92

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Horgan

151.71

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.12 points left. Optimal 141.04 vs. actual 130.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	23.62	Russell Wilson	23.62
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	4.70	Marquise Goodwin	9.80
WR	Davante Adams	16.70	Davante Adams	16.70
WR	Jamison Crowder	26.00	Jamison Crowder	26.00
RB	Jay Ajayi	3.80	Jay Ajayi	3.80
RB	Jamaal Williams	27.50	Jamaal Williams	27.50
TE	Austin Hooper	5.30	Austin Hooper	5.30
W/R/T	Danny Amendola	2.08	Kenny Golladay	7.10
K	Greg Zuerlein	17.00	Greg Zuerlein	17.00
DEF	Broncos	4.22	Broncos	4.22

Carried by One Guy: Jamaal Williams, 27.50 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Zach Ertz scored 23.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.20 points left. Optimal 151.91 vs. actual 151.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	20.68	Tom Brady	20.68
WR	Amari Cooper	7.40	Amari Cooper	7.40
WR	Josh Doctson	9.80	Josh Doctson	9.80
WR	Tyreek Hill	8.90	Tyreek Hill	8.90
RB	Le'Veon Bell	22.30	Le'Veon Bell	22.30
RB	Rex Burkhead	18.30	Marshawn Lynch	18.50
TE	Rob Gronkowski	22.70	Rob Gronkowski	22.70
W/R/T	Zach Ertz	23.30	Zach Ertz	23.30
K	Wil Lutz	9.00	Wil Lutz	9.00
DEF	Seahawks	9.33	Seahawks	9.33

Carried by One Guy: Zach Ertz, 23.30 points (15.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 21 – 27, 2017

Kev

102.53

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Adam

63.01

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.62 points left. Optimal 122.15 vs. actual 102.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	23.98	Carson Wentz	23.98
WR	T.Y. Hilton	2.50	Bruce Ellington	4.82
WR	Devin Funchess	16.30	Devin Funchess	16.30
WR	Stefon Diggs	10.00	Stefon Diggs	10.00
RB	LeSean McCoy	9.90	Mark Ingram II	4.60
RB	Mark Ingram II	4.60	LeSean McCoy	9.90
TE	Kyle Rudolph	20.30	Kyle Rudolph	20.30
W/R/T	Orleans Darkwa	4.40	Tevin Coleman	21.70
K	Chris Boswell	6.00	Chris Boswell	6.00
DEF	Falcons	4.55	Falcons	4.55

Carried by One Guy: Carson Wentz, 23.98 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.10 points left. Optimal 81.11 vs. actual 63.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	3.16	Dak Prescott	3.16
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	2.70	Doug Baldwin	3.00
WR	Doug Baldwin	3.00	Zay Jones	10.80
WR	Cooper Kupp	17.60	Cooper Kupp	17.60
RB	Alfred Morris	5.40	Alfred Morris	5.40
RB	Jordan Howard	2.90	Rodney Smith	11.80
TE	Tyler Kroft	8.90	Tyler Kroft	8.90
W/R/T	Zay Jones	10.80	Adrian Peterson	11.90
K	Brandon McManus	2.00	Brandon McManus	2.00
DEF	Bengals	6.55	Bengals	6.55

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 17.60 points (27.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 21 – 27, 2017

Big Hut

79.71

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

138.80

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 35.98 points left. Optimal 115.69 vs. actual 79.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	2.42	Eli Manning	2.42
WR	Demaryius Thomas	4.30	Randall Cobb	13.80
WR	Kenny Stills	6.20	Kenny Stills	6.20
WR	Mike Evans	10.80	Mike Evans	10.80
RB	Joe Mixon	26.00	Leonard Fournette	5.70
RB	Tarik Cohen	2.12	Joe Mixon	26.00
TE	Jared Cook	0.70	Delanie Walker	14.30
W/R/T	Leonard Fournette	5.70	Paul Richardson	9.00
K	Stephen Gostkowski	5.00	Matt Bryant	11.00
DEF	Giants	16.47	Giants	16.47

Carried by One Guy: Joe Mixon, 26.00 points (32.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.34 points left. Optimal 148.14 vs. actual 138.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	17.52	Cam Newton	17.52
WR	Dez Bryant	5.20	Dez Bryant	5.20
WR	Golden Tate	4.26	Keenan Allen	30.70
WR	Keenan Allen	30.70	Mike Wallace	7.30
RB	Carlos Hyde	10.30	Isaiah Crowell	11.00
RB	Alvin Kamara	35.80	Alvin Kamara	35.80
TE	Jimmy Graham	10.90	Jimmy Graham	10.90
W/R/T	Mike Wallace	7.30	Jack Doyle	12.90
K	Harrison Butker	5.00	Harrison Butker	5.00
DEF	Jaguars	11.82	Jaguars	11.82

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 35.80 points (25.8% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–8	6.636	-4.5	-0.409	1 / 4
Demich	7–5	3.909	+9.5	+0.864	5 / 0
Kev	9–3	8.864	-5.5	-0.500	1 / 2
Miller	6–6	5.545	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 2
Martin	7–5	4.500	+7.0	+0.636	4 / 0
Josh	6–6	6.455	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 2
Big Hut	4–8	3.545	+3.5	+0.318	3 / 0
Fischer	4–8	4.455	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Krajcik	6–6	6.909	-5.0	-0.455	0 / 2
Horgan	11–1	9.091	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Adam	3–9	4.091	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Joe Shore	5–7	8.000	-11.5	-1.045	2 / 5

2017 week 12 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 12