2017 week 11 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 14 – 20, 2017

j-mart

161.01

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

158.14

Rank 2; -4.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.30 points left. Optimal 163.31 vs. actual 161.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	27.98	Kirk Cousins	27.98
WR	Ted Ginn Jr.	10.50	Alshon Jeffery	16.70
WR	Rishard Matthews	21.80	Rishard Matthews	21.80
WR	Michael Thomas	12.10	Michael Thomas	12.10
RB	Melvin Gordon III	14.00	Melvin Gordon III	14.00
RB	Alex Collins	15.10	Alex Collins	15.10
TE	Vernon Davis	8.20	Vernon Davis	8.20
W/R/T	Alshon Jeffery	16.70	Austin Ekeler	12.80
K	Stephen Hauschka	8.00	Stephen Hauschka	8.00
DEF	Ravens	26.63	Ravens	26.63

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 27.98 points (17.4% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 158.14 vs. actual 158.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	18.26	Matthew Stafford	18.26
WR	Dez Bryant	10.30	Dez Bryant	10.30
WR	Golden Tate	4.70	Golden Tate	4.70
WR	Keenan Allen	36.20	Keenan Allen	36.20
RB	Isaiah Crowell	1.80	Isaiah Crowell	1.80
RB	Alvin Kamara	22.60	Alvin Kamara	22.60
TE	Jimmy Graham	17.30	Jimmy Graham	17.30
W/R/T	Mike Wallace	13.60	Mike Wallace	13.60
K	Harrison Butker	8.00	Harrison Butker	8.00
DEF	Jaguars	25.38	Jaguars	25.38

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 36.20 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kirk Cousins scored 27.98; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 14 – 20, 2017

Miller

116.75

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Krajcik

124.03

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.20 points left. Optimal 127.95 vs. actual 116.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	30.92	Russell Wilson	30.92
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	19.60	Davante Adams	18.60
WR	Davante Adams	18.60	Jamison Crowder	11.10
WR	Jamison Crowder	11.10	Larry Fitzgerald	19.60
RB	Jay Ajayi	10.60	Jay Ajayi	10.60
RB	Jamaal Williams	11.50	Jamaal Williams	11.50
TE	Austin Hooper	0.90	Austin Hooper	0.90
W/R/T	Doug Martin	5.40	Danny Amendola	16.60
K	Greg Zuerlein	1.00	Greg Zuerlein	1.00
DEF	Broncos	7.13	Broncos	7.13

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 30.92 points (26.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Antonio Brown scored 39.86; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.30 points left. Optimal 158.33 vs. actual 124.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Alex Smith	7.90	Drew Brees	23.60
WR	Michael Crabtree	10.10	Antonio Brown	39.86
WR	Antonio Brown	39.86	DeAndre Hopkins	15.60
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	15.60	Michael Crabtree	10.10
RB	Jerick McKinnon	8.50	Dion Lewis	16.80
RB	Kareem Hunt	9.20	Latavius Murray	22.10
TE	Hunter Henry	3.50	Hunter Henry	3.50
W/R/T	Dion Lewis	16.80	Mohamed Sanu	11.20
K	Josh Lambo	7.00	Justin Tucker	10.00
DEF	Packers	5.57	Packers	5.57

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 39.86 points (32.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 14 – 20, 2017

Martin

109.08

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Fischer

72.50

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.46 points left. Optimal 114.54 vs. actual 109.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	16.74	Marcus Mariota	16.74
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	16.50	Marvin Jones Jr.	16.50
WR	Marqise Lee	7.00	Marqise Lee	7.00
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	6.70	JuJu Smith-Schuster	6.70
RB	Lamar Miller	16.30	Lamar Miller	16.30
RB	Duke Johnson	14.60	Duke Johnson	14.60
TE	Evan Engram	1.40	Cameron Brate	1.70
W/R/T	Jeremy Maclin	5.40	Damien Williams	10.56
K	Kai Forbath	6.00	Kai Forbath	6.00
DEF	Steelers	18.44	Steelers	18.44

Carried by One Guy: Steelers, 18.44 points (16.9% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.10 points left. Optimal 93.60 vs. actual 72.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	13.48	Derek Carr	13.48
WR	Dontrelle Inman	5.80	Dontrelle Inman	5.80
WR	Adam Thielen	23.30	Adam Thielen	23.30
WR	Nelson Agholor	0.30	Sammy Watkins	5.10
RB	DeMarco Murray	7.20	DeMarco Murray	7.20
RB	Todd Gurley	13.10	Todd Gurley	13.10
TE	C.J. Fiedorowicz	2.80	C.J. Fiedorowicz	2.80
W/R/T	Danny Woodhead	4.80	Samaje Perine	21.10
K	Jake Elliott	1.00	Jake Elliott	1.00
DEF	Rams	0.72	Rams	0.72

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 23.30 points (32.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 14 – 20, 2017

Josh

98.82

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

131.08

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.06 points left. Optimal 120.88 vs. actual 98.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	9.80	Ben Roethlisberger	28.96
WR	A.J. Green	13.00	A.J. Green	13.00
WR	Brandin Cooks	25.90	Brandin Cooks	25.90
WR	Dede Westbrook	5.00	Dede Westbrook	5.00
RB	C.J. Anderson	10.60	C.J. Anderson	10.60
RB	James White	1.30	Derrick Henry	3.20
TE	Travis Kelce	14.90	Travis Kelce	14.90
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	3.20	Charles Clay	4.20
K	Ryan Succop	6.00	Ryan Succop	6.00
DEF	Patriots	9.12	Patriots	9.12

Carried by One Guy: Brandin Cooks, 25.90 points (26.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.50 points left. Optimal 147.58 vs. actual 131.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	8.70	Eli Manning	8.70
WR	Demaryius Thomas	14.90	Demaryius Thomas	14.90
WR	Kenny Stills	29.50	Kenny Stills	29.50
WR	Paul Richardson	8.10	Paul Richardson	8.10
RB	Joe Mixon	5.90	Leonard Fournette	14.80
RB	Tarik Cohen	17.54	Tarik Cohen	17.54
TE	Jared Cook	4.60	Delanie Walker	12.20
W/R/T	Mike Evans	11.70	Mike Evans	11.70
K	Stephen Gostkowski	19.00	Stephen Gostkowski	19.00
DEF	Giants	11.14	Giants	11.14

Carried by One Guy: Kenny Stills, 29.50 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 14 – 20, 2017

Kev

137.61

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

106.63

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.70 points left. Optimal 141.31 vs. actual 137.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	20.02	Carson Wentz	20.02
WR	Tavarres King	6.30	Tavarres King	6.30
WR	Bruce Ellington	9.98	Bruce Ellington	9.98
WR	Stefon Diggs	5.20	Stefon Diggs	5.20
RB	LeSean McCoy	27.10	Mark Ingram II	25.00
RB	Mark Ingram II	25.00	LeSean McCoy	27.10
TE	Kyle Rudolph	8.30	Kyle Rudolph	8.30
W/R/T	Tevin Coleman	12.30	Orleans Darkwa	16.00
K	Chris Boswell	17.00	Chris Boswell	17.00
DEF	Texans	6.41	Texans	6.41

Carried by One Guy: LeSean McCoy, 27.10 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.40 points left. Optimal 116.03 vs. actual 106.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	27.60	Tom Brady	27.60
WR	Amari Cooper	10.30	Amari Cooper	10.30
WR	DeVante Parker	4.60	Josh Doctson	10.10
WR	Tyreek Hill	12.08	Tyreek Hill	12.08
RB	Marshawn Lynch	8.20	Le'Veon Bell	14.80
RB	Le'Veon Bell	14.80	Marshawn Lynch	8.20
TE	Rob Gronkowski	5.20	Rob Gronkowski	5.20
W/R/T	Zach Ertz	1.80	Rex Burkhead	5.70
K	Wil Lutz	15.00	Wil Lutz	15.00
DEF	Chiefs	7.05	Chiefs	7.05

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 27.60 points (25.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 14 – 20, 2017

Demich

101.62

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Adam

66.83

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.84 points left. Optimal 109.46 vs. actual 101.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	17.00	Matt Ryan	17.00
WR	Julio Jones	9.60	Jarvis Landry	16.80
WR	Jarvis Landry	16.80	Tyler Lockett	10.64
WR	Corey Davis	4.20	Corey Coleman	11.00
RB	Chris Thompson	9.80	Chris Thompson	9.80
RB	Ameer Abdullah	10.80	Ameer Abdullah	10.80
TE	Jason Witten	1.20	Jason Witten	1.20
W/R/T	Robert Woods	12.10	Robert Woods	12.10
K	Matt Prater	10.00	Matt Prater	10.00
DEF	Lions	10.12	Lions	10.12

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 17.00 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.94 points left. Optimal 67.77 vs. actual 66.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	-1.20	Dak Prescott	-1.20
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	2.46	Doug Baldwin	11.00
WR	Doug Baldwin	11.00	Cooper Kupp	7.40
WR	Cooper Kupp	7.40	Jordy Nelson	3.40
RB	Theo Riddick	4.40	Theo Riddick	4.40
RB	Jordan Howard	20.50	Jordan Howard	20.50
TE	Tyler Kroft	8.20	Tyler Kroft	8.20
W/R/T	Adrian Peterson	4.40	Adrian Peterson	4.40
K	Brandon McManus	6.00	Brandon McManus	6.00
DEF	Cardinals	3.67	Cardinals	3.67

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Howard, 20.50 points (30.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–7	6.273	-4.5	-0.409	1 / 4
Demich	6–5	3.455	+9.0	+0.818	4 / 0
Kev	8–3	8.591	-8.0	-0.727	0 / 2
Miller	6–5	5.000	+3.5	+0.318	2 / 1
Martin	7–4	4.409	+7.0	+0.636	4 / 0
Josh	5–6	5.545	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 2
Big Hut	4–7	3.364	+3.5	+0.318	3 / 0
Fischer	4–7	3.818	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Krajcik	5–6	6.182	-5.0	-0.455	0 / 2
Horgan	10–1	8.091	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Adam	3–8	4.091	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Joe Shore	4–7	7.182	-11.5	-1.045	2 / 5

2017 week 11 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Adam lineup

Cumulative totals through week 11