2016 season ledger
Actual results beside all-play expectation, schedule counterfactuals, weekly receipts, rivalries, and archived player evidence.
Actual and all-play standings
All-play is a score comparison, not a prediction of skill.
| Manager | W–L | PF | Expected wins | Luck points | Luck in wins | Lucky | Unlucky | All-play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Hut | 10–3 | 1627.11 | 8.091 | +0.5 | +0.045 | 2 | 1 | 62.2% |
| Krajcik | 8–5 | 1619.33 | 8.182 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 62.9% |
| Adam | 8–5 | 1614.91 | 7.182 | -1.0 | -0.091 | 2 | 2 | 55.2% |
| Horgan | 7–6 | 1604.28 | 7.545 | -3.0 | -0.273 | 1 | 3 | 58.0% |
| Joe Shore | 7–6 | 1569.33 | 6.909 | +3.5 | +0.318 | 1 | 0 | 53.1% |
| Martin | 7–6 | 1557.05 | 7.364 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 56.6% |
| j-mart | 6–7 | 1595.25 | 7.364 | -1.5 | -0.136 | 1 | 2 | 56.6% |
| Josh | 6–7 | 1517.77 | 5.636 | +4.5 | +0.409 | 3 | 2 | 43.4% |
| Miller | 6–7 | 1516.74 | 6.000 | +0.5 | +0.045 | 1 | 2 | 46.2% |
| Fischer | 6–7 | 1472.72 | 5.364 | +3.0 | +0.273 | 4 | 2 | 41.3% |
| Kev | 4–9 | 1396.20 | 4.727 | +0.5 | +0.045 | 1 | 2 | 36.4% |
| Demich | 3–10 | 1344.27 | 3.636 | +1.0 | +0.091 | 1 | 1 | 28.0% |
All-play order
- Krajcik — 8.182 expected wins; 90–53–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Big Hut — 8.091 expected wins; 89–54–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Horgan — 7.545 expected wins; 83–60–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- j-mart — 7.364 expected wins; 81–62–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Martin — 7.364 expected wins; 81–62–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Adam — 7.182 expected wins; 79–64–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Joe Shore — 6.909 expected wins; 76–67–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Miller — 6.000 expected wins; 66–77–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Josh — 5.636 expected wins; 62–81–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Fischer — 5.364 expected wins; 59–84–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Kev — 4.727 expected wins; 52–91–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Demich — 3.636 expected wins; 40–103–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Latest weekly receipts
All exact ties share the award.
Robbery of the Week
- HorganRank 5, 121.34 points, lost by 12.06. Open matchup
Get Out of Jail Free
- AdamRank 8, 105.14 points, won by 12.28. Open matchup
Cumulative luck in wins
Normalized before totals are compared across league sizes.
| Manager | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.14 |
| Demich | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.09 |
| Kev | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 |
| Miller | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.09 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 |
| Martin | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh | +0.23 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.23 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.41 | +0.41 | +0.41 | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| Big Hut | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.09 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 |
| Fischer | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.27 | +0.27 | -0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.27 |
| Krajcik | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Horgan | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.09 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.27 |
| Adam | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.09 |
| Joe Shore | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 |
Schedule Swap
Each score stays in its original week. Only the schedule owner changes.
| Source team | Best owner | Record | Worst owner | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Martin | 9–4 (+3.0) | Demich | 5–8 (-1.0) |
| Demich | Martin | 6–7 (+3.0) | j-mart | 2–11 (-1.0) |
| Kev | Miller | 7–6 (+3.0) | j-mart | 3–10 (-1.0) |
| Miller | Martin | 8–5 (+2.0) | j-mart | 4–9 (-2.0) |
| Martin | Big Hut | 10–3 (+3.0) | j-mart | 6–7 (-1.0) |
| Josh | Adam | 7–6 (+1.0) | j-mart | 4–9 (-2.0) |
| Big Hut | Martin | 11–2 (+1.0) | j-mart | 5–8 (-5.0) |
| Fischer | Kev | 7–6 (+1.0) | j-mart | 3–10 (-3.0) |
| Krajcik | Martin | 10–3 (+2.0) | Joe Shore | 6–7 (-2.0) |
| Horgan | Miller | 9–4 (+2.0) | j-mart | 5–8 (-2.0) |
| Adam | Horgan | 9–4 (+1.0) | j-mart | 5–8 (-3.0) |
| Joe Shore | Fischer | 10–3 (+3.0) | Krajcik | 4–9 (-3.0) |
Everybody's Super Bowl
Opponent score minus that opponent's mean in other eligible weeks. Each baseline needs two other weeks.
| Manager | Mean excess | Meetings | Largest receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | +13.68 pts | 13 | Demich: +56.35 pts |
| Demich | +8.04 pts | 13 | Martin: +43.84 pts |
| Kev | -1.67 pts | 13 | Fischer: +20.78 pts |
| Miller | -4.20 pts | 13 | Joe Shore: +40.82 pts |
| Martin | -12.04 pts | 13 | Krajcik: +30.07 pts |
| Josh | -2.06 pts | 13 | Horgan: +41.58 pts |
| Big Hut | -9.22 pts | 13 | j-mart: +22.60 pts |
| Fischer | -5.23 pts | 13 | j-mart: +28.92 pts |
| Krajcik | +6.84 pts | 13 | Big Hut: +59.88 pts |
| Horgan | +2.55 pts | 13 | Miller: +50.24 pts |
| Adam | +1.94 pts | 13 | Josh: +53.83 pts |
| Joe Shore | +1.38 pts | 13 | Martin: +30.66 pts |
Cupcake Schedule / Murderers' Row
Opponent percentile excludes both the focal team and the opponent. Higher means harder.
| Manager | Difficulty | Games | PA/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 66.2% | 13 | 128.48 |
| Demich | 63.8% | 13 | 127.27 |
| Kev | 50.8% | 13 | 118.28 |
| Miller | 45.4% | 13 | 115.28 |
| Martin | 36.2% | 13 | 107.83 |
| Josh | 50.8% | 13 | 116.50 |
| Big Hut | 35.4% | 13 | 108.94 |
| Fischer | 44.6% | 13 | 114.15 |
| Krajcik | 56.2% | 13 | 124.01 |
| Horgan | 48.5% | 13 | 120.13 |
| Adam | 50.0% | 13 | 118.55 |
| Joe Shore | 52.3% | 13 | 118.66 |
Heart Attack Club
A close game has a margin of 5.00 points or less, inclusive.
| Manager | Close record | Games | Win-credit rate | Closest win | Closest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 4.22 | 0.41 |
| Demich | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Kev | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Miller | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Martin | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 0.93 |
| Josh | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 0.68 |
| Big Hut | 2–1 | 3 | 66.7% | 0.93 | 1.04 |
| Fischer | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 4.22 |
| Krajcik | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 0.68 | None |
| Horgan | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 0.41 | None |
| Adam | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 0.85 |
| Joe Shore | 2–1 | 3 | 66.7% | 0.85 | 3.35 |
Paper Tiger / Wasted Talent
Actual win-credit rate against all-play win rate. The diagonal means equality.
| Manager | Actual | All-play | Gap | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 46.2% | 56.6% | -10.5 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Demich | 23.1% | 28.0% | -4.9 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Kev | 30.8% | 36.4% | -5.6 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Miller | 46.2% | 46.2% | 0.0 pp | Even |
| Martin | 53.8% | 56.6% | -2.8 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Josh | 46.2% | 43.4% | +2.8 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Big Hut | 76.9% | 62.2% | +14.7 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Fischer | 46.2% | 41.3% | +4.9 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Krajcik | 61.5% | 62.9% | -1.4 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Horgan | 53.8% | 58.0% | -4.2 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Adam | 61.5% | 55.2% | +6.3 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Joe Shore | 53.8% | 53.1% | +0.7 pp | Paper Tiger |
The Roller Coaster
Population standard deviation of weekly all-play percentile. Two weeks required.
| Manager | Volatility | Mean percentile | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 31.7 pp | 56.6% | 13 |
| Demich | 29.7 pp | 28.0% | 13 |
| Kev | 26.7 pp | 36.4% | 13 |
| Miller | 26.1 pp | 46.2% | 13 |
| Martin | 33.5 pp | 56.6% | 13 |
| Josh | 32.5 pp | 43.4% | 13 |
| Big Hut | 27.8 pp | 62.2% | 13 |
| Fischer | 29.3 pp | 41.3% | 13 |
| Krajcik | 29.3 pp | 62.9% | 13 |
| Horgan | 31.2 pp | 58.0% | 13 |
| Adam | 21.5 pp | 55.2% | 13 |
| Joe Shore | 33.4 pp | 53.1% | 13 |
Nemesis / Has Their Number
Stable-manager regular-season records. Postseason is kept separate on manager pages.
| Manager | Nemesis | Record | Has Their Number | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Martin | 0–1 | Big Hut | 1–0 |
| Demich | Joe Shore | 0–2 | Kev | 1–0 |
| Kev | Fischer | 0–1 | Martin | 1–0 |
| Miller | Adam | 0–2 | Josh | 1–0 |
| Martin | Josh | 0–1 | Horgan | 2–0 |
| Josh | Krajcik | 0–2 | Martin | 1–0 |
| Big Hut | j-mart | 0–1 | Krajcik | 1–0 |
| Fischer | Martin | 0–1 | Kev | 1–0 |
| Krajcik | Big Hut | 0–1 | Josh | 2–0 |
| Horgan | Martin | 0–2 | Adam | 1–0 |
| Adam | Horgan | 0–1 | Miller | 2–0 |
| Joe Shore | Horgan | 0–1 | Demich | 2–0 |
Archived player statistics
Hindsight lineup using the archived roster and Yahoo-reported position eligibility; not a reconstruction of kickoff-time options.
Tinker Failures
| Manager | Points left | Avoidable losses | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 170.14 | 1 | |
| Demich | 203.20 | 3 | |
| Kev | 141.14 | 0 | |
| Miller | 216.44 | 4 | |
| Martin | 67.42 | 1 | |
| Josh | 214.54 | 2 | |
| Big Hut | 148.52 | 2 | |
| Fischer | 181.92 | 2 | |
| Krajcik | 180.32 | 1 | |
| Horgan | 138.28 | 1 | |
| Adam | 127.40 | 1 | |
| Joe Shore | 164.76 | 1 |
Carried by One Guy
| Manager | Leading player | Share | Positive starter points | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Andrew Luck | 14.9% | 1595.75 | 13 weeks
|
| Demich | Russell Wilson | 14.8% | 1344.53 | 13 weeks |
| Kev | Cam Newton | 14.8% | 1396.20 | |
| Miller | Lamar Miller | 9.7% | 1516.74 | |
| Martin | David Johnson | 19.3% | 1557.05 | 13 weeks |
| Josh | Antonio Brown | 14.9% | 1517.77 | |
| Big Hut | Drew Brees | 17.1% | 1629.45 | 13 weeks
|
| Fischer | Michael Crabtree | 11.0% | 1475.77 | 13 weeks
|
| Krajcik | DeMarco Murray | 14.6% | 1619.33 | 13 weeks
|
| Horgan | Aaron Rodgers | 17.7% | 1604.28 | 13 weeks
|
| Adam | Ezekiel Elliott | 16.1% | 1617.73 | 13 weeks
|
| Joe Shore | Tom Brady | 11.9% | 1569.40 |
Opponent's Final Boss
| Manager | Leading opponent | Damage | Leader encounters | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Aaron Rodgers | 162.36 | 1 | |
| Demich | Carson Palmer | 85.56 | 2 | |
| Kev | Jamison Crowder | 129.05 | 1 | |
| Miller | Delanie Walker | 149.12 | 1 | |
| Martin | Drew Brees | 177.36 | 1 | |
| Josh | Corey Coleman | 197.99 | 1 | |
| Big Hut | Matthew Stafford | 109.99 | 1 | |
| Fischer | Julio Jones | 273.73 | 1 | |
| Krajcik | David Johnson | 63.80 | 1 | |
| Horgan | David Johnson | 117.79 | 2 | |
| Adam | Jimmy Graham | 199.45 | 1 | |
| Joe Shore | Drew Brees | 140.97 | 1 |
Postseason scorecards
Actual participants only. These scores do not enter regular-season luck.