2016 week 2 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 13 – 19, 2016

j-mart

93.93

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Kev

117.47

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.50 points left. Optimal 101.43 vs. actual 93.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	10.08	Andrew Luck	10.08
WR	Mike Evans	16.00	Mike Evans	16.00
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	12.60	Odell Beckham Jr.	12.60
WR	Brandin Cooks	10.30	Brandin Cooks	10.30
RB	Ryan Mathews	16.00	Ryan Mathews	16.00
RB	Charles Sims	4.30	DeAndre Washington	5.70
TE	Coby Fleener	3.90	Jimmy Graham	5.70
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	7.60	Tyler Lockett	11.90
K	Mason Crosby	2.00	Mason Crosby	2.00
DEF	Rams	11.15	Rams	11.15

Carried by One Guy: Ryan Mathews, 16.00 points (17.0% of positive starter points); Mike Evans, 16.00 points (17.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Cam Newton scored 31.82; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.80 points left. Optimal 127.27 vs. actual 117.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	31.82	Cam Newton	31.82
WR	Jeremy Maclin	9.80	Michael Floyd	7.80
WR	A.J. Green	4.80	Alshon Jeffery	12.10
WR	Alshon Jeffery	12.10	Jeremy Maclin	9.80
RB	Ameer Abdullah	3.80	Duke Johnson	7.98
RB	Duke Johnson	7.98	Matt Jones	13.00
TE	Eric Ebron	7.30	Eric Ebron	7.30
W/R/T	Michael Floyd	7.80	Derrick Henry	5.40
K	Chandler Catanzaro	9.00	Chandler Catanzaro	9.00
DEF	Cardinals	23.07	Cardinals	23.07

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 31.82 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 13 – 19, 2016

Josh

146.69

Rank 3; -3.5 luck points

Krajcik

147.37

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.62 points left. Optimal 159.31 vs. actual 146.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Blake Bortles	20.56	Tyrod Taylor	24.38
WR	Demaryius Thomas	13.50	Demaryius Thomas	13.50
WR	Antonio Brown	6.26	Antonio Brown	6.26
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	28.30	Kelvin Benjamin	28.30
RB	Rashad Jennings	5.00	Theo Riddick	8.50
RB	Theo Riddick	8.50	Frank Gore	13.80
TE	Greg Olsen	22.70	Greg Olsen	22.70
W/R/T	Isaiah Crowell	23.30	Isaiah Crowell	23.30
K	Matt Prater	7.00	Matt Prater	7.00
DEF	Eagles	11.57	Eagles	11.57

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Kelvin Benjamin, 28.30 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Corey Coleman scored 26.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.58 points left. Optimal 174.95 vs. actual 147.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	19.76	Matt Ryan	29.84
WR	Julio Jones	21.10	Julio Jones	21.10
WR	Amari Cooper	9.60	DeVante Parker	16.60
WR	Corey Coleman	26.90	Corey Coleman	26.90
RB	Doug Martin	2.30	DeMarco Murray	18.00
RB	Latavius Murray	19.10	Latavius Murray	19.10
TE	Julius Thomas	9.10	Julius Thomas	9.10
W/R/T	DeMarco Murray	18.00	Anquan Boldin	12.80
K	Stephen Gostkowski	7.00	Stephen Gostkowski	7.00
DEF	Texans	14.51	Texans	14.51

Carried by One Guy: Corey Coleman, 26.90 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 13 – 19, 2016

Big Hut

94.43

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

115.01

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 37.30 points left. Optimal 131.73 vs. actual 94.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	14.52	Drew Brees	14.52
WR	Golden Tate	2.30	Torrey Smith	13.00
WR	T.Y. Hilton	6.10	Allen Hurns	8.90
WR	Allen Hurns	8.90	Will Fuller V	14.40
RB	Adrian Peterson	3.60	Devonta Freeman	9.30
RB	Devonta Freeman	9.30	Melvin Gordon III	21.50
TE	Jacob Tamme	16.00	Jacob Tamme	16.00
W/R/T	Melvin Gordon III	21.50	Martellus Bennett	21.90
K	Stephen Hauschka	2.00	Stephen Hauschka	2.00
DEF	Chiefs	10.21	Chiefs	10.21

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Melvin Gordon III, 21.50 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Carson Palmer scored 26.16; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.30 points left. Optimal 120.31 vs. actual 115.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	26.16	Carson Palmer	26.16
WR	Michael Crabtree	11.10	DeAndre Hopkins	22.80
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	22.80	Jarvis Landry	18.50
WR	Jarvis Landry	18.50	Michael Crabtree	11.10
RB	Jonathan Stewart	2.60	Mark Ingram II	6.70
RB	Mark Ingram II	6.70	Jeremy Hill	7.40
TE	Delanie Walker	17.30	Delanie Walker	17.30
W/R/T	Jeremy Hill	7.40	Steve Smith	7.90
K	Sebastian Janikowski	4.00	Sebastian Janikowski	4.00
DEF	Raiders	-1.55	Raiders	-1.55

Carried by One Guy: Carson Palmer, 26.16 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 13 – 19, 2016

Martin

149.14

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

93.82

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.00 points left. Optimal 163.14 vs. actual 149.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	24.96	Derek Carr	24.96
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	16.60	Travis Benjamin	28.82
WR	Travis Benjamin	28.82	Devin Funchess	8.90
WR	Sammy Watkins	3.00	Larry Fitzgerald	16.60
RB	David Johnson	15.80	David Johnson	15.80
RB	Jeremy Langford	7.90	Jeremy Langford	7.90
TE	Jordan Reed	9.50	Jordan Reed	9.50
W/R/T	Thomas Rawls	2.30	Jesse James	10.40
K	Graham Gano	17.00	Graham Gano	17.00
DEF	Broncos	23.26	Broncos	23.26

Carried by One Guy: Travis Benjamin, 28.82 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.14 points left. Optimal 107.96 vs. actual 93.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	17.42	Kirk Cousins	20.56
WR	DeSean Jackson	5.50	Quincy Enunwa	12.20
WR	Donte Moncrief	1.40	Tyrell Williams	13.60
WR	Tyrell Williams	13.60	DeSean Jackson	5.50
RB	LeSean McCoy	11.00	Todd Gurley	7.50
RB	Todd Gurley	7.50	LeSean McCoy	11.00
TE	Gary Barnidge	5.70	Travis Kelce	5.90
W/R/T	Spencer Ware	9.50	Spencer Ware	9.50
K	Justin Tucker	15.00	Justin Tucker	15.00
DEF	Seahawks	7.20	Seahawks	7.20

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 17.42 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 13 – 19, 2016

Miller

104.03

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Adam

116.86

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 47.06 points left. Optimal 151.09 vs. actual 104.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	21.34	Philip Rivers	23.80
WR	Brandon Marshall	15.10	Stefon Diggs	30.70
WR	Doug Baldwin	3.50	Brandon Marshall	15.10
WR	Jordan Matthews	10.10	Mike Wallace	18.10
RB	Lamar Miller	10.70	Lamar Miller	10.70
RB	C.J. Anderson	16.80	C.J. Anderson	16.80
TE	Kyle Rudolph	10.60	Kyle Rudolph	10.60
W/R/T	Carlos Hyde	4.70	Tevin Coleman	14.10
K	Blair Walsh	6.00	Blair Walsh	6.00
DEF	Bengals	5.19	Bengals	5.19

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Andy Dalton, 21.34 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Eric Decker scored 23.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.20 points left. Optimal 124.06 vs. actual 116.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	14.32	Eli Manning	14.32
WR	Eric Decker	23.60	Eric Decker	23.60
WR	Randall Cobb	6.80	Randall Cobb	6.80
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	17.80	Marvin Jones Jr.	17.80
RB	DeAngelo Williams	21.20	Ezekiel Elliott	13.70
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	13.70	DeAngelo Williams	21.20
TE	Antonio Gates	9.00	Antonio Gates	9.00
W/R/T	Arian Foster	0.90	Christine Michael	8.10
K	Chris Boswell	7.00	Chris Boswell	7.00
DEF	Jets	2.54	Jets	2.54

Carried by One Guy: Eric Decker, 23.60 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 13 – 19, 2016

Demich

109.89

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

124.48

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.00 points left. Optimal 134.89 vs. actual 109.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	11.56	Russell Wilson	11.56
WR	Jordy Nelson	15.80	Chris Hogan	7.90
WR	Allen Robinson	6.90	Willie Snead IV	13.90
WR	Willie Snead IV	13.90	Jordy Nelson	15.80
RB	Matt Forte	31.90	Giovani Bernard	22.20
RB	Danny Woodhead	3.60	Matt Forte	31.90
TE	Jason Witten	6.60	Jason Witten	6.60
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	3.40	Tyler Boyd	8.80
K	Dan Bailey	8.00	Dan Bailey	8.00
DEF	Packers	8.23	Packers	8.23

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Matt Forte, 31.90 points (29.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Sterling Shepard scored 17.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.30 points left. Optimal 139.78 vs. actual 124.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	15.50	Matthew Stafford	15.50
WR	Julian Edelman	11.10	Dez Bryant	15.70
WR	Dez Bryant	15.70	Emmanuel Sanders	5.40
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	5.40	Julian Edelman	11.10
RB	Eddie Lacy	5.00	LeGarrette Blount	20.30
RB	T.J. Yeldon	7.80	T.J. Yeldon	7.80
TE	Dennis Pitta	16.70	Dennis Pitta	16.70
W/R/T	Sterling Shepard	17.70	Sterling Shepard	17.70
K	Brandon McManus	14.00	Brandon McManus	14.00
DEF	Panthers	15.58	Panthers	15.58

Carried by One Guy: Sterling Shepard, 17.70 points (14.2% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	0–2	0.636	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Demich	1–1	1.273	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	2–0	1.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	1–1	1.273	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	1–1	1.455	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–1	1.091	-1.0	-0.091	1 / 1
Big Hut	0–2	0.273	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	1–1	0.455	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Krajcik	2–0	1.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	0–2	0.636	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Adam	1–1	0.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	2–0	0.909	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2016 week 2 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 2