2016 week 11 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 15 – 21, 2016

j-mart

120.04

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

145.63

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 120.04 vs. actual 120.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	18.68	Andrew Luck	18.68
WR	Mike Evans	15.50	Mike Evans	15.50
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	7.10	Odell Beckham Jr.	7.10
WR	Brandin Cooks	8.40	Brandin Cooks	8.40
RB	Rashad Jennings	21.40	Terrance West	11.80
RB	Terrance West	11.80	Rashad Jennings	21.40
TE	Coby Fleener	9.20	Coby Fleener	9.20
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	9.30	Michael Thomas	9.30
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Panthers	12.66	Panthers	12.66

Carried by One Guy: Rashad Jennings, 21.40 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tom Brady scored 28.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.90 points left. Optimal 148.53 vs. actual 145.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	28.40	Tom Brady	28.40
WR	Julian Edelman	18.90	Dez Bryant	23.00
WR	Dez Bryant	23.00	Steve Smith	19.90
WR	Golden Tate	1.60	Julian Edelman	18.90
RB	LeSean McCoy	11.50	C.J. Prosise	15.10
RB	C.J. Prosise	15.10	LeSean McCoy	11.50
TE	Jimmy Graham	12.10	Jimmy Graham	12.10
W/R/T	Steve Smith	19.90	Paul Perkins	4.50
K	Sebastian Janikowski	6.00	Sebastian Janikowski	6.00
DEF	Rams	9.13	Rams	9.13

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 28.40 points (19.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 15 – 21, 2016

Miller

123.77

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

101.25

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 123.77 vs. actual 123.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	15.28	Andy Dalton	15.28
WR	Doug Baldwin	19.00	Doug Baldwin	19.00
WR	Jordan Matthews	8.40	Jordan Matthews	8.40
WR	Stefon Diggs	6.70	Stefon Diggs	6.70
RB	Lamar Miller	20.30	Lamar Miller	20.30
RB	Carlos Hyde	12.50	Carlos Hyde	12.50
TE	Tyler Eifert	5.20	Tyler Eifert	5.20
W/R/T	Mike Wallace	10.00	Mike Wallace	10.00
K	Dustin Hopkins	5.00	Dustin Hopkins	5.00
DEF	Vikings	21.39	Vikings	21.39

Carried by One Guy: Vikings, 21.39 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.40 points left. Optimal 103.65 vs. actual 101.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	8.68	Ben Roethlisberger	8.68
WR	Amari Cooper	13.70	Kendall Wright	7.20
WR	DeVante Parker	17.90	Amari Cooper	13.70
WR	Corey Coleman	5.90	DeVante Parker	17.90
RB	DeMarco Murray	15.40	DeMarco Murray	15.40
RB	Latavius Murray	11.70	Latavius Murray	11.70
TE	Julius Thomas	2.70	Lance Kendricks	3.80
W/R/T	Doug Martin	12.00	Doug Martin	12.00
K	Stephen Gostkowski	5.00	Stephen Gostkowski	5.00
DEF	Raiders	8.27	Raiders	8.27

Carried by One Guy: DeVante Parker, 17.90 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 15 – 21, 2016

Martin

129.29

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

83.69

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 129.29 vs. actual 129.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	21.60	Derek Carr	21.60
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	9.30	Robert Woods	5.60
WR	Robert Woods	5.60	Cameron Meredith	6.90
WR	Cameron Meredith	6.90	Larry Fitzgerald	9.30
RB	David Johnson	33.50	David Johnson	33.50
RB	Thomas Rawls	10.30	Thomas Rawls	10.30
TE	Jordan Reed	10.40	Jordan Reed	10.40
W/R/T	Adam Humphries	7.14	Adam Humphries	7.14
K	Cairo Santos	4.00	Cairo Santos	4.00
DEF	Lions	20.55	Lions	20.55

Carried by One Guy: David Johnson, 33.50 points (25.9% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.00 points left. Optimal 98.69 vs. actual 83.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	11.12	Matthew Stafford	11.12
WR	Michael Crabtree	2.00	Rishard Matthews	18.70
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	8.30	DeAndre Hopkins	8.30
WR	Jarvis Landry	11.32	Jarvis Landry	11.32
RB	Jonathan Stewart	10.40	Jeremy Hill	7.30
RB	Jeremy Hill	7.30	Jonathan Stewart	10.40
TE	Delanie Walker	5.60	Zach Miller	13.60
W/R/T	Rishard Matthews	18.70	Mark Ingram II	9.00
K	Caleb Sturgis	1.00	Caleb Sturgis	1.00
DEF	Patriots	7.95	Patriots	7.95

Carried by One Guy: Rishard Matthews, 18.70 points (22.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 15 – 21, 2016

Josh

93.97

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

104.21

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 93.97 vs. actual 93.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	17.18	Eli Manning	17.18
WR	Antonio Brown	11.74	Antonio Brown	11.74
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	7.10	Kelvin Benjamin	7.10
WR	Davante Adams	5.70	Davante Adams	5.70
RB	Theo Riddick	12.30	Theo Riddick	12.30
RB	Jordan Howard	10.40	Jordan Howard	10.40
TE	Greg Olsen	5.30	Greg Olsen	5.30
W/R/T	Frank Gore	14.10	Frank Gore	14.10
K	Stephen Hauschka	6.00	Stephen Hauschka	6.00
DEF	Eagles	4.15	Eagles	4.15

Carried by One Guy: Eli Manning, 17.18 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jamison Crowder scored 19.86; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.70 points left. Optimal 116.91 vs. actual 104.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	15.40	Drew Brees	15.40
WR	T.Y. Hilton	18.20	T.Y. Hilton	18.20
WR	Cole Beasley	14.40	Cole Beasley	14.40
WR	Jamison Crowder	19.86	Jamison Crowder	19.86
RB	Chris Ivory	12.40	Chris Ivory	12.40
RB	Jerick McKinnon	4.60	Jerick McKinnon	4.60
TE	Martellus Bennett	1.90	Eric Ebron	14.60
W/R/T	Will Fuller V	2.20	Will Fuller V	2.20
K	Chris Boswell	9.00	Chris Boswell	9.00
DEF	Chiefs	6.25	Chiefs	6.25

Carried by One Guy: Jamison Crowder, 19.86 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 15 – 21, 2016

Kev

120.07

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Horgan

136.42

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.10 points left. Optimal 123.17 vs. actual 120.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	12.38	Cam Newton	12.38
WR	Kenny Britt	6.80	Michael Floyd	3.10
WR	A.J. Green	0.00	Marqise Lee	14.64
WR	Marqise Lee	14.64	Kenny Britt	6.80
RB	Jay Ajayi	9.90	Jay Ajayi	9.90
RB	Rob Kelley	33.70	Rob Kelley	33.70
TE	C.J. Fiedorowicz	11.20	C.J. Fiedorowicz	11.20
W/R/T	James Starks	15.60	James Starks	15.60
K	Dan Bailey	8.00	Dan Bailey	8.00
DEF	Cardinals	7.85	Cardinals	7.85

Carried by One Guy: Rob Kelley, 33.70 points (28.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Rodgers scored 31.34; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.60 points left. Optimal 140.02 vs. actual 136.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	31.34	Aaron Rodgers	31.34
WR	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	12.20	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	12.20
WR	Donte Moncrief	11.70	Donte Moncrief	11.70
WR	Sterling Shepard	13.50	Sterling Shepard	13.50
RB	LeGarrette Blount	14.40	LeGarrette Blount	14.40
RB	Todd Gurley	13.60	Todd Gurley	13.60
TE	Travis Kelce	15.80	Travis Kelce	15.80
W/R/T	Spencer Ware	9.50	DeSean Jackson	13.10
K	Justin Tucker	6.00	Justin Tucker	6.00
DEF	Seahawks	8.38	Seahawks	8.38

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 31.34 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 15 – 21, 2016

Demich

100.75

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Adam

128.61

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.06 points left. Optimal 104.81 vs. actual 100.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	24.78	Dak Prescott	27.64
WR	Jordy Nelson	10.30	Allen Robinson	9.30
WR	Allen Robinson	9.30	Willie Snead IV	5.30
WR	Willie Snead IV	5.30	Jordy Nelson	10.30
RB	Giovani Bernard	8.60	Giovani Bernard	8.60
RB	Mike Gillislee	7.20	Mike Gillislee	7.20
TE	Jason Witten	6.20	Jason Witten	6.20
W/R/T	Damien Williams	0.00	Jack Doyle	1.20
K	Wil Lutz	7.00	Wil Lutz	7.00
DEF	Steelers	22.07	Steelers	22.07

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 24.78 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Le'Veon Bell scored 32.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.30 points left. Optimal 134.91 vs. actual 128.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	22.50	Marcus Mariota	22.50
WR	Randall Cobb	10.10	Randall Cobb	10.10
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	2.00	Ty Montgomery II	6.40
WR	Tyreek Hill	8.92	Tyreek Hill	8.92
RB	Le'Veon Bell	32.10	Le'Veon Bell	32.10
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	14.70	Tim Hightower	16.60
TE	Cameron Brate	2.80	Cameron Brate	2.80
W/R/T	James White	15.30	James White	15.30
K	Graham Gano	13.00	Graham Gano	13.00
DEF	Dolphins	7.19	Dolphins	7.19

Carried by One Guy: Le'Veon Bell, 32.10 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–7	6.000	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Demich	3–8	3.636	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Kev	4–7	4.545	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 2
Miller	6–5	5.545	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 2
Martin	5–6	6.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	6–5	5.182	+4.5	+0.409	3 / 2
Big Hut	8–3	6.545	+0.5	+0.045	2 / 1
Fischer	5–6	4.000	+3.5	+0.318	4 / 1
Krajcik	7–4	7.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	6–5	5.909	-1.5	-0.136	1 / 2
Adam	6–5	6.091	-2.5	-0.227	1 / 2
Joe Shore	6–5	5.455	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2016 week 11 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Adam lineup

Cumulative totals through week 11