2016 week 3 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 20 – 26, 2016

j-mart

137.84

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Miller

127.78

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.80 points left. Optimal 163.64 vs. actual 137.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	15.24	Andrew Luck	15.24
WR	Mike Evans	26.20	Mike Evans	26.20
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	17.60	Odell Beckham Jr.	17.60
WR	Brandin Cooks	2.90	Michael Thomas	16.60
RB	Ryan Mathews	-0.50	Charles Sims	21.40
RB	Charles Sims	21.40	Kenyan Drake	5.80
TE	Jimmy Graham	19.00	Jimmy Graham	19.00
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	16.60	Coby Fleener	22.40
K	Mason Crosby	11.00	Mason Crosby	11.00
DEF	Dolphins	8.40	Dolphins	8.40

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 26.20 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.40 points left. Optimal 150.18 vs. actual 127.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	13.24	Philip Rivers	13.24
WR	Doug Baldwin	28.00	Doug Baldwin	28.00
WR	Jordan Matthews	8.90	Jordan Matthews	8.90
WR	Stefon Diggs	6.00	Stefon Diggs	6.00
RB	Lamar Miller	12.70	Lamar Miller	12.70
RB	C.J. Anderson	4.60	Carlos Hyde	27.00
TE	Kyle Rudolph	16.50	Kyle Rudolph	16.50
W/R/T	Tevin Coleman	28.40	Tevin Coleman	28.40
K	Blair Walsh	4.00	Blair Walsh	4.00
DEF	Bengals	5.44	Bengals	5.44

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tevin Coleman, 28.40 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Mike Evans scored 26.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 20 – 26, 2016

Demich

97.97

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Kev

83.46

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.20 points left. Optimal 111.17 vs. actual 97.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	14.02	Russell Wilson	14.02
WR	Jordy Nelson	27.10	Allen Robinson	21.20
WR	Allen Robinson	21.20	Kevin White	9.20
WR	Willie Snead IV	0.00	Jordy Nelson	27.10
RB	Matt Forte	7.40	Giovani Bernard	6.90
RB	Giovani Bernard	6.90	Matt Forte	7.40
TE	Jason Witten	3.50	Jason Witten	3.50
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	4.60	Alfred Morris	8.60
K	Dan Bailey	8.00	Dan Bailey	8.00
DEF	Packers	5.25	Packers	5.25

Carried by One Guy: Jordy Nelson, 27.10 points (27.7% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.00 points left. Optimal 95.46 vs. actual 83.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	13.08	Cam Newton	13.08
WR	Jeremy Maclin	5.50	A.J. Green	11.70
WR	A.J. Green	11.70	Michael Floyd	8.50
WR	Alshon Jeffery	9.50	Alshon Jeffery	9.50
RB	Duke Johnson	10.60	Duke Johnson	10.60
RB	Derrick Henry	4.50	Matt Jones	8.90
TE	Eric Ebron	9.40	Eric Ebron	9.40
W/R/T	Phillip Dorsett II	4.20	Jay Ajayi	8.80
K	Chandler Catanzaro	6.00	Chandler Catanzaro	6.00
DEF	Cardinals	8.98	Cardinals	8.98

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 13.08 points (15.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jordy Nelson scored 27.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 20 – 26, 2016

Big Hut

180.44

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

81.99

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.40 points left. Optimal 181.84 vs. actual 180.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	27.94	Drew Brees	27.94
WR	Golden Tate	5.20	Golden Tate	5.20
WR	T.Y. Hilton	29.40	T.Y. Hilton	29.40
WR	Will Fuller V	4.60	Allen Hurns	6.00
RB	Devonta Freeman	31.20	Devonta Freeman	31.20
RB	Melvin Gordon III	15.80	Melvin Gordon III	15.80
TE	Jacob Tamme	4.30	Jacob Tamme	4.30
W/R/T	Shane Vereen	14.50	Shane Vereen	14.50
K	Stephen Hauschka	12.00	Stephen Hauschka	12.00
DEF	Chiefs	35.50	Chiefs	35.50

Carried by One Guy: Chiefs, 35.50 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 43.62 points left. Optimal 125.61 vs. actual 81.99.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	6.98	Matt Ryan	19.90
WR	Julio Jones	2.10	DeVante Parker	12.60
WR	Amari Cooper	8.20	Anquan Boldin	10.20
WR	DeVante Parker	12.60	Ted Ginn Jr.	9.08
RB	DeMarco Murray	26.00	DeMarco Murray	26.00
RB	Latavius Murray	10.30	Latavius Murray	10.30
TE	Julius Thomas	2.30	Dwayne Allen	5.00
W/R/T	Dwayne Allen	5.00	Darren Sproles	24.02
K	Stephen Gostkowski	7.00	Stephen Gostkowski	7.00
DEF	Texans	1.51	Texans	1.51

Carried by One Guy: DeMarco Murray, 26.00 points (31.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 20 – 26, 2016

Josh

123.25

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

161.79

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.36 points left. Optimal 135.61 vs. actual 123.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Blake Bortles	11.46	Tyrod Taylor	16.36
WR	Demaryius Thomas	19.00	Demaryius Thomas	19.00
WR	Antonio Brown	22.00	Antonio Brown	22.00
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	0.00	Sammie Coates	7.26
RB	Frank Gore	14.80	Theo Riddick	8.30
RB	Theo Riddick	8.30	Frank Gore	14.80
TE	Greg Olsen	9.40	Greg Olsen	9.40
W/R/T	Isaiah Crowell	7.90	Bilal Powell	8.10
K	Matt Prater	12.00	Matt Prater	12.00
DEF	Eagles	18.39	Eagles	18.39

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 22.00 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.36 points left. Optimal 173.15 vs. actual 161.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	26.40	Aaron Rodgers	26.40
WR	DeSean Jackson	18.10	Jamison Crowder	16.96
WR	Tyrell Williams	9.90	Sterling Shepard	15.80
WR	Sterling Shepard	15.80	DeSean Jackson	18.10
RB	LeGarrette Blount	24.50	LeGarrette Blount	24.50
RB	Todd Gurley	20.50	Todd Gurley	20.50
TE	Travis Kelce	17.90	Travis Kelce	17.90
W/R/T	Spencer Ware	6.80	Gary Barnidge	11.10
K	Justin Tucker	17.00	Justin Tucker	17.00
DEF	Seahawks	4.89	Seahawks	4.89

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 26.40 points (16.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 20 – 26, 2016

Martin

106.48

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Adam

129.58

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 106.48 vs. actual 106.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	11.86	Derek Carr	11.86
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	9.50	Travis Benjamin	8.20
WR	Travis Benjamin	8.20	Tavon Austin	19.24
WR	Tavon Austin	19.24	Larry Fitzgerald	9.50
RB	David Johnson	24.60	David Johnson	24.60
RB	Jeremy Langford	5.60	Jeremy Langford	5.60
TE	Jordan Reed	7.60	Jordan Reed	7.60
W/R/T	Eddie Royal	3.94	Eddie Royal	3.94
K	Graham Gano	5.00	Graham Gano	5.00
DEF	Broncos	10.94	Broncos	10.94

Carried by One Guy: David Johnson, 24.60 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Marvin Jones Jr. scored 37.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.16 points left. Optimal 139.74 vs. actual 129.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	16.00	Eli Manning	16.00
WR	Eric Decker	3.60	Marvin Jones Jr.	37.50
WR	Randall Cobb	3.80	John Brown	11.26
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	37.50	Tajae Sharpe	6.30
RB	DeAngelo Williams	6.40	Ezekiel Elliott	19.00
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	19.00	DeAngelo Williams	6.40
TE	Clive Walford	3.70	Clive Walford	3.70
W/R/T	Christine Michael	26.10	Christine Michael	26.10
K	Chris Boswell	4.00	Chris Boswell	4.00
DEF	Jets	9.48	Jets	9.48

Carried by One Guy: Marvin Jones Jr., 37.50 points (28.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 20 – 26, 2016

Fischer

127.08

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

132.14

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.60 points left. Optimal 153.68 vs. actual 127.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	3.48	Carson Palmer	3.48
WR	Michael Crabtree	16.20	Jarvis Landry	25.36
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	7.60	Steve Smith	12.70
WR	Jarvis Landry	25.36	Michael Crabtree	16.20
RB	Justin Forsett	6.20	Mark Ingram II	20.70
RB	Mark Ingram II	20.70	Jeremy Hill	21.70
TE	Zach Miller	23.80	Zach Miller	23.80
W/R/T	Vincent Jackson	5.20	Jordan Howard	11.20
K	Sebastian Janikowski	7.00	Sebastian Janikowski	7.00
DEF	Raiders	11.54	Raiders	11.54

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jarvis Landry, 25.36 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Emmanuel Sanders scored 30.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.10 points left. Optimal 140.24 vs. actual 132.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	28.50	Matthew Stafford	28.50
WR	Julian Edelman	7.20	Dez Bryant	11.50
WR	Dez Bryant	11.50	Emmanuel Sanders	30.20
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	30.20	Julian Edelman	7.20
RB	LeSean McCoy	27.10	Eddie Lacy	13.00
RB	Eddie Lacy	13.00	LeSean McCoy	27.10
TE	Rob Gronkowski	0.00	Dennis Pitta	7.20
W/R/T	Dennis Pitta	7.20	Fozzy Whittaker	8.10
K	Brandon McManus	3.00	Brandon McManus	3.00
DEF	Panthers	4.44	Panthers	4.44

Carried by One Guy: Emmanuel Sanders, 30.20 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–2	1.455	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Demich	2–1	1.455	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0
Kev	2–1	1.455	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	1–2	1.818	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Martin	1–2	1.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–2	1.455	-1.0	-0.091	1 / 1
Big Hut	1–2	1.273	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	1–2	0.909	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Krajcik	2–1	1.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	1–2	1.545	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Adam	2–1	1.545	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	3–0	1.636	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2016 week 3 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 3