2016 week 4 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 27 – Oct 3, 2016

j-mart

58.25

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Martin

130.96

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.46 points left. Optimal 86.71 vs. actual 58.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	17.66	Andrew Luck	17.66
WR	Mike Evans	8.40	Victor Cruz	7.50
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	3.80	Mike Evans	8.40
WR	Brandin Cooks	4.60	Brandin Cooks	4.60
RB	Charles Sims	2.50	Fozzy Whittaker	13.70
RB	Kenyan Drake	1.84	Charles Sims	2.50
TE	Coby Fleener	3.40	Jimmy Graham	16.30
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	12.40	Michael Thomas	12.40
K	Cairo Santos	2.00	Cairo Santos	2.00
DEF	Ravens	1.65	Ravens	1.65

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 17.66 points (30.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.76 points left. Optimal 136.72 vs. actual 130.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	23.76	Derek Carr	23.76
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	8.80	Travis Benjamin	5.40
WR	Travis Benjamin	5.40	Larry Fitzgerald	8.80
WR	Tavon Austin	2.74	Eddie Royal	22.94
RB	David Johnson	12.40	David Johnson	12.40
RB	Paul Perkins	9.00	Paul Perkins	9.00
TE	Jordan Reed	23.80	Jordan Reed	23.80
W/R/T	Eddie Royal	22.94	Jesse James	8.50
K	Graham Gano	7.00	Graham Gano	7.00
DEF	Broncos	15.12	Broncos	15.12

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Reed, 23.80 points (18.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 27 – Oct 3, 2016

Demich

81.20

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Miller

120.06

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.30 points left. Optimal 89.50 vs. actual 81.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	25.86	Russell Wilson	25.86
WR	Allen Robinson	14.00	Rishard Matthews	9.20
WR	Willie Snead IV	2.80	Allen Robinson	14.00
WR	Tyler Boyd	1.50	Kevin White	8.50
RB	Matt Forte	5.30	Giovani Bernard	5.70
RB	Giovani Bernard	5.70	Matt Forte	5.30
TE	Jason Witten	8.20	Jason Witten	8.20
W/R/T	Kevin White	8.50	Alfred Morris	3.40
K	Dan Bailey	5.00	Dan Bailey	5.00
DEF	Patriots	4.34	Patriots	4.34

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 25.86 points (31.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.60 points left. Optimal 121.66 vs. actual 120.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	20.84	Philip Rivers	20.84
WR	Brandon Marshall	16.90	Doug Baldwin	7.40
WR	Doug Baldwin	7.40	Brandon Marshall	16.90
WR	Stefon Diggs	7.10	Mike Wallace	8.70
RB	Lamar Miller	12.30	Lamar Miller	12.30
RB	C.J. Anderson	11.70	C.J. Anderson	11.70
TE	Kyle Rudolph	14.00	Kyle Rudolph	14.00
W/R/T	Carlos Hyde	14.40	Carlos Hyde	14.40
K	Blair Walsh	7.00	Blair Walsh	7.00
DEF	Vikings	8.42	Vikings	8.42

Carried by One Guy: Philip Rivers, 20.84 points (17.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 27 – Oct 3, 2016

Fischer

115.78

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

133.62

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.20 points left. Optimal 137.98 vs. actual 115.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	11.52	Carson Palmer	11.52
WR	Michael Crabtree	30.30	Jarvis Landry	9.60
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	0.90	Steve Smith	23.10
WR	Jarvis Landry	9.60	Michael Crabtree	30.30
RB	Mark Ingram II	19.50	Mark Ingram II	19.50
RB	Jeremy Hill	7.10	Jeremy Hill	7.10
TE	Zach Miller	10.60	Zach Miller	10.60
W/R/T	Jordan Howard	16.70	Jordan Howard	16.70
K	Sebastian Janikowski	4.00	Sebastian Janikowski	4.00
DEF	Raiders	5.56	Raiders	5.56

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Michael Crabtree, 30.30 points (26.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Julio Jones scored 44.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.74 points left. Optimal 142.36 vs. actual 133.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	35.90	Matt Ryan	37.52
WR	Julio Jones	44.00	Julio Jones	44.00
WR	Amari Cooper	7.30	Amari Cooper	7.30
WR	DeVante Parker	3.00	Anquan Boldin	6.10
RB	DeMarco Murray	24.90	DeMarco Murray	24.90
RB	Latavius Murray	3.40	Latavius Murray	3.40
TE	Julius Thomas	0.00	Dwayne Allen	3.00
W/R/T	Dwayne Allen	3.00	Ted Ginn Jr.	4.02
K	Stephen Gostkowski	0.00	Stephen Gostkowski	0.00
DEF	Texans	12.12	Texans	12.12

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 44.00 points (32.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 27 – Oct 3, 2016

Big Hut

120.97

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

90.49

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.20 points left. Optimal 138.17 vs. actual 120.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	11.88	Drew Brees	11.88
WR	Golden Tate	2.60	T.Y. Hilton	13.70
WR	T.Y. Hilton	13.70	Allen Hurns	11.70
WR	Will Fuller V	24.94	Will Fuller V	24.94
RB	Devonta Freeman	13.40	Devonta Freeman	13.40
RB	Melvin Gordon III	20.90	Melvin Gordon III	20.90
TE	Jacob Tamme	7.30	Martellus Bennett	15.40
W/R/T	Jerick McKinnon	17.00	Jerick McKinnon	17.00
K	Stephen Hauschka	11.00	Stephen Hauschka	11.00
DEF	Chiefs	-1.75	Chiefs	-1.75

Carried by One Guy: Will Fuller V, 24.94 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.00 points left. Optimal 103.49 vs. actual 90.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	17.32	Kirk Cousins	17.32
WR	DeSean Jackson	1.00	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	12.50
WR	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	12.50	Quincy Enunwa	9.00
WR	Sterling Shepard	5.00	Tyrell Williams	6.50
RB	LeGarrette Blount	7.30	Spencer Ware	8.10
RB	Todd Gurley	10.70	Todd Gurley	10.70
TE	Travis Kelce	10.80	Travis Kelce	10.80
W/R/T	Tyrell Williams	6.50	Gary Barnidge	9.20
K	Justin Tucker	7.00	Justin Tucker	7.00
DEF	Seahawks	12.37	Seahawks	12.37

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 17.32 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 27 – Oct 3, 2016

Josh

166.44

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Adam

128.07

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.70 points left. Optimal 170.14 vs. actual 166.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Blake Bortles	25.88	Blake Bortles	25.88
WR	Demaryius Thomas	18.40	Demaryius Thomas	18.40
WR	Antonio Brown	20.48	Antonio Brown	20.48
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	11.40	Kelvin Benjamin	11.40
RB	Theo Riddick	7.80	Isaiah Crowell	23.70
RB	Isaiah Crowell	23.70	Frank Gore	18.00
TE	Greg Olsen	18.60	Greg Olsen	18.60
W/R/T	Frank Gore	18.00	Markus Wheaton	11.50
K	Matt Prater	7.00	Matt Prater	7.00
DEF	Bills	15.18	Bills	15.18

Carried by One Guy: Blake Bortles, 25.88 points (15.5% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 128.07 vs. actual 128.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	8.44	Eli Manning	8.44
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	9.90	Marvin Jones Jr.	9.90
WR	John Brown	21.86	John Brown	21.86
WR	Tajae Sharpe	2.50	Tajae Sharpe	2.50
RB	Le'Veon Bell	22.30	Le'Veon Bell	22.30
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	24.20	Ezekiel Elliott	24.20
TE	Hunter Henry	14.10	Hunter Henry	14.10
W/R/T	Christine Michael	17.50	Christine Michael	17.50
K	Chris Boswell	5.00	Chris Boswell	5.00
DEF	Jets	2.27	Jets	2.27

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 24.20 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 27 – Oct 3, 2016

Kev

113.77

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Joe Shore

91.03

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.14 points left. Optimal 131.91 vs. actual 113.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	15.60	Cam Newton	15.60
WR	Jeremy Maclin	10.30	A.J. Green	30.30
WR	A.J. Green	30.30	Michael Floyd	11.10
WR	Alshon Jeffery	6.10	Jeremy Maclin	10.30
RB	Duke Johnson	8.96	Orleans Darkwa	10.80
RB	Matt Jones	22.80	Matt Jones	22.80
TE	Eric Ebron	6.20	Eric Ebron	6.20
W/R/T	Dwayne Washington	1.90	Phillip Dorsett II	13.20
K	Chandler Catanzaro	5.00	Chandler Catanzaro	5.00
DEF	Cardinals	6.61	Cardinals	6.61

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Green, 30.30 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.70 points left. Optimal 109.73 vs. actual 91.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	8.22	Matthew Stafford	8.22
WR	Julian Edelman	2.20	Emmanuel Sanders	18.80
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	18.80	Cole Beasley	8.80
WR	Cole Beasley	8.80	Jamison Crowder	3.10
RB	LeSean McCoy	19.80	T.J. Yeldon	13.70
RB	T.J. Yeldon	13.70	LeSean McCoy	19.80
TE	Rob Gronkowski	1.60	Dennis Pitta	3.20
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	3.10	Terrance West	19.30
K	Dustin Hopkins	8.00	Dustin Hopkins	8.00
DEF	Panthers	6.81	Panthers	6.81

Carried by One Guy: LeSean McCoy, 19.80 points (21.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: A.J. Green scored 30.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–3	1.455	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Demich	2–2	1.545	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0
Kev	3–1	1.818	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Miller	2–2	2.364	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Martin	2–2	2.545	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	2–2	2.455	-1.0	-0.091	1 / 1
Big Hut	2–2	1.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	1–3	1.364	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Krajcik	3–1	2.636	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	1–3	1.727	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Adam	2–2	2.273	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Joe Shore	3–1	1.909	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2016 week 4 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 4