2016 week 5 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 4 – 10, 2016

j-mart

144.83

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Josh

129.21

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 144.83 vs. actual 144.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	24.18	Andrew Luck	24.18
WR	Mike Evans	17.90	Mike Evans	17.90
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	14.10	Odell Beckham Jr.	14.10
WR	Sammie Coates	31.36	Sammie Coates	31.36
RB	Ryan Mathews	14.00	Ryan Mathews	14.00
RB	Fozzy Whittaker	5.90	Fozzy Whittaker	5.90
TE	Jack Doyle	1.80	Jack Doyle	1.80
W/R/T	Jacquizz Rodgers	17.40	Jacquizz Rodgers	17.40
K	Mason Crosby	11.00	Mason Crosby	11.00
DEF	Ravens	7.19	Ravens	7.19

Carried by One Guy: Sammie Coates, 31.36 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.30 points left. Optimal 133.51 vs. actual 129.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	15.76	Tyrod Taylor	15.76
WR	Demaryius Thomas	13.40	Demaryius Thomas	13.40
WR	Antonio Brown	19.32	Antonio Brown	19.32
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	9.50	Kelvin Benjamin	9.50
RB	Theo Riddick	23.20	Bilal Powell	8.10
RB	Isaiah Crowell	4.50	Theo Riddick	23.20
TE	Greg Olsen	24.60	Greg Olsen	24.60
W/R/T	DeAndre Washington	7.70	Frank Gore	8.40
K	Matt Prater	5.00	Matt Prater	5.00
DEF	Eagles	6.23	Eagles	6.23

Carried by One Guy: Greg Olsen, 24.60 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Sammie Coates scored 31.36; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 4 – 10, 2016

Demich

92.38

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Martin

160.24

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.70 points left. Optimal 96.08 vs. actual 92.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	17.48	Dak Prescott	17.48
WR	Jordy Nelson	11.80	Chris Hogan	15.60
WR	Brice Butler	3.00	Tyler Boyd	4.80
WR	Tyler Boyd	4.80	Jordy Nelson	11.80
RB	Matt Forte	7.00	Giovani Bernard	12.60
RB	Giovani Bernard	12.60	Matt Forte	7.00
TE	Jason Witten	5.80	Jason Witten	5.80
W/R/T	Chris Hogan	15.60	James Starks	6.70
K	Dan Bailey	4.00	Dan Bailey	4.00
DEF	Patriots	10.30	Patriots	10.30

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 17.48 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 160.24 vs. actual 160.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	23.98	Derek Carr	23.98
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	23.10	Travis Benjamin	17.20
WR	Travis Benjamin	17.20	Tavon Austin	12.04
WR	Tavon Austin	12.04	Larry Fitzgerald	23.10
RB	David Johnson	34.00	David Johnson	34.00
RB	Cameron Artis-Payne	20.50	Cameron Artis-Payne	20.50
TE	Jordan Reed	9.30	Jordan Reed	9.30
W/R/T	Jesse James	13.30	Jesse James	13.30
K	Graham Gano	2.00	Graham Gano	2.00
DEF	Broncos	4.82	Broncos	4.82

Carried by One Guy: David Johnson, 34.00 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 4 – 10, 2016

Kev

86.74

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Miller

128.76

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.80 points left. Optimal 88.54 vs. actual 86.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	15.36	Jameis Winston	15.36
WR	A.J. Green	7.00	A.J. Green	7.00
WR	Alshon Jeffery	10.20	Alshon Jeffery	10.20
WR	Phillip Dorsett II	3.60	Phillip Dorsett II	3.60
RB	Duke Johnson	3.60	Matt Jones	4.60
RB	Matt Jones	4.60	Derrick Henry	5.40
TE	Dennis Pitta	9.40	Dennis Pitta	9.40
W/R/T	Jay Ajayi	10.20	Jay Ajayi	10.20
K	Chandler Catanzaro	7.00	Chandler Catanzaro	7.00
DEF	Cardinals	15.78	Cardinals	15.78

Carried by One Guy: Cardinals, 15.78 points (18.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.40 points left. Optimal 152.16 vs. actual 128.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	28.36	Philip Rivers	28.36
WR	Brandon Marshall	23.40	Jordan Matthews	8.50
WR	Mike Wallace	9.80	Brandon Marshall	23.40
WR	Jordan Matthews	8.50	Mike Wallace	9.80
RB	Lamar Miller	2.90	C.J. Anderson	7.70
RB	C.J. Anderson	7.70	Tevin Coleman	26.30
TE	Zach Ertz	5.20	Zach Ertz	5.20
W/R/T	Carlos Hyde	20.40	Carlos Hyde	20.40
K	Blair Walsh	5.00	Blair Walsh	5.00
DEF	Vikings	17.50	Vikings	17.50

Carried by One Guy: Philip Rivers, 28.36 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 4 – 10, 2016

Fischer

108.98

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Horgan

91.34

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.06 points left. Optimal 120.04 vs. actual 108.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Flacco	13.00	Joe Flacco	13.00
WR	Michael Crabtree	12.20	DeAndre Hopkins	14.10
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	14.10	Vincent Jackson	5.10
WR	Jarvis Landry	4.74	Michael Crabtree	12.20
RB	Jeremy Hill	1.20	Jeremy Hill	1.20
RB	Jordan Howard	25.80	Jordan Howard	25.80
TE	Zach Miller	10.80	Zach Miller	10.80
W/R/T	Steve Smith	4.40	Delanie Walker	15.10
K	Sebastian Janikowski	15.00	Sebastian Janikowski	15.00
DEF	Steelers	7.74	Steelers	7.74

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Howard, 25.80 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 91.34 vs. actual 91.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	15.86	Aaron Rodgers	15.86
WR	DeSean Jackson	5.00	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	7.80
WR	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	7.80	Sterling Shepard	2.40
WR	Sterling Shepard	2.40	DeSean Jackson	5.00
RB	LeGarrette Blount	9.70	LeGarrette Blount	9.70
RB	Todd Gurley	16.30	Todd Gurley	16.30
TE	Cameron Brate	4.30	Cameron Brate	4.30
W/R/T	Quincy Enunwa	7.10	Quincy Enunwa	7.10
K	Justin Tucker	4.00	Justin Tucker	4.00
DEF	Bills	18.88	Bills	18.88

Carried by One Guy: Bills, 18.88 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jordan Howard scored 25.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 4 – 10, 2016

Big Hut

142.67

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Adam

128.71

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 142.67 vs. actual 142.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	16.92	Carson Wentz	16.92
WR	Dontrelle Inman	0.80	Dontrelle Inman	0.80
WR	T.Y. Hilton	30.10	T.Y. Hilton	30.10
WR	Will Fuller V	1.18	Will Fuller V	1.18
RB	Devonta Freeman	19.80	Devonta Freeman	19.80
RB	Melvin Gordon III	13.20	Melvin Gordon III	13.20
TE	Martellus Bennett	27.70	Martellus Bennett	27.70
W/R/T	Jerick McKinnon	5.10	Jerick McKinnon	5.10
K	Adam Vinatieri	22.00	Adam Vinatieri	22.00
DEF	Rams	5.87	Rams	5.87

Carried by One Guy: T.Y. Hilton, 30.10 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.60 points left. Optimal 129.31 vs. actual 128.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	10.06	Eli Manning	10.06
WR	Randall Cobb	17.30	Randall Cobb	17.30
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	11.70	Marvin Jones Jr.	11.70
WR	John Brown	2.10	Tajae Sharpe	2.70
RB	Le'Veon Bell	19.90	Le'Veon Bell	19.90
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	32.60	Ezekiel Elliott	32.60
TE	Hunter Henry	14.90	Hunter Henry	14.90
W/R/T	James White	10.90	James White	10.90
K	Chris Boswell	8.00	Chris Boswell	8.00
DEF	Jets	1.25	Jets	1.25

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 32.60 points (25.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: T.Y. Hilton scored 30.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 4 – 10, 2016

Krajcik

129.75

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

114.83

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.02 points left. Optimal 134.77 vs. actual 129.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	31.20	Ben Roethlisberger	31.20
WR	Julio Jones	3.90	Amari Cooper	26.80
WR	Amari Cooper	26.80	DeVante Parker	8.00
WR	DeVante Parker	8.00	Anquan Boldin	6.80
RB	DeMarco Murray	18.20	DeMarco Murray	18.20
RB	Jalen Richard	12.70	Jalen Richard	12.70
TE	Dwayne Allen	14.00	Dwayne Allen	14.00
W/R/T	Anquan Boldin	6.80	Darren Sproles	8.92
K	Stephen Gostkowski	7.00	Stephen Gostkowski	7.00
DEF	Texans	1.15	Texans	1.15

Carried by One Guy: Ben Roethlisberger, 31.20 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.78 points left. Optimal 121.61 vs. actual 114.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	31.64	Tom Brady	31.64
WR	Julian Edelman	6.42	Emmanuel Sanders	11.50
WR	Golden Tate	6.00	Jamison Crowder	12.78
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	11.50	Julian Edelman	6.42
RB	LeSean McCoy	18.80	Eddie Lacy	8.90
RB	Eddie Lacy	8.90	LeSean McCoy	18.80
TE	Rob Gronkowski	15.40	Rob Gronkowski	15.40
W/R/T	Terrance West	9.90	Terrance West	9.90
K	Mike Nugent	2.00	Mike Nugent	2.00
DEF	Panthers	4.27	Panthers	4.27

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 31.64 points (27.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ben Roethlisberger scored 31.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–3	2.364	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Demich	2–3	1.727	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0
Kev	3–2	1.818	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Miller	3–2	2.909	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Martin	3–2	3.545	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	2–3	3.091	-2.5	-0.227	1 / 2
Big Hut	3–2	2.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	2–3	1.636	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 0
Krajcik	4–1	3.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	1–4	1.818	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Adam	2–3	2.727	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Joe Shore	3–2	2.273	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2016 week 5 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 5