2016 week 12 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 22 – 28, 2016

j-mart

135.55

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Demich

84.55

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.10 points left. Optimal 150.65 vs. actual 135.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	17.56	Carson Palmer	17.56
WR	Mike Evans	28.40	Mike Evans	28.40
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	25.30	Odell Beckham Jr.	25.30
WR	Brandin Cooks	0.00	Michael Thomas	29.30
RB	Rashad Jennings	6.90	Terrance West	7.90
RB	Terrance West	7.90	Derrick Henry	12.00
TE	Coby Fleener	7.90	Coby Fleener	7.90
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	29.30	Kenneth Dixon	10.00
K	Mason Crosby	9.00	Mason Crosby	9.00
DEF	Panthers	3.29	Panthers	3.29

Carried by One Guy: Michael Thomas, 29.30 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.26 points left. Optimal 101.81 vs. actual 84.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	10.04	Dak Prescott	21.70
WR	Jordy Nelson	13.10	Chris Hogan	9.00
WR	Allen Robinson	3.40	Willie Snead IV	12.30
WR	Willie Snead IV	12.30	Jordy Nelson	13.10
RB	Matt Forte	6.50	Wendell Smallwood	5.20
RB	Wendell Smallwood	5.20	Matt Forte	6.50
TE	Jason Witten	4.80	Jason Witten	4.80
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	11.00	Mohamed Sanu	11.00
K	Wil Lutz	7.00	Wil Lutz	7.00
DEF	Steelers	11.21	Steelers	11.21

Carried by One Guy: Jordy Nelson, 13.10 points (15.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 22 – 28, 2016

Martin

117.54

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

107.86

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.56 points left. Optimal 129.10 vs. actual 117.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	19.40	Derek Carr	19.40
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	7.30	Sammy Watkins	9.50
WR	Sammy Watkins	9.50	Tyler Boyd	8.70
WR	Tyler Boyd	8.70	Larry Fitzgerald	7.30
RB	David Johnson	28.10	David Johnson	28.10
RB	Thomas Rawls	3.80	Thomas Rawls	3.80
TE	Jordan Reed	26.50	Jordan Reed	26.50
W/R/T	Tajae Sharpe	2.10	Tavon Austin	13.66
K	Cairo Santos	8.00	Cairo Santos	8.00
DEF	Broncos	4.14	Broncos	4.14

Carried by One Guy: David Johnson, 28.10 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.78 points left. Optimal 116.64 vs. actual 107.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	20.84	Ben Roethlisberger	20.84
WR	Julio Jones	5.50	Julio Jones	5.50
WR	Amari Cooper	4.20	DeVante Parker	7.90
WR	DeVante Parker	7.90	Corey Coleman	11.30
RB	DeMarco Murray	10.90	DeMarco Murray	10.90
RB	Latavius Murray	16.30	Latavius Murray	16.30
TE	Lance Kendricks	13.10	Lance Kendricks	13.10
W/R/T	Doug Martin	8.00	Doug Martin	8.00
K	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00
DEF	Ravens	12.12	Raiders	13.80

Carried by One Guy: Ben Roethlisberger, 20.84 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: David Johnson scored 28.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 22 – 28, 2016

Josh

107.05

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

129.14

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 43.68 points left. Optimal 150.73 vs. actual 107.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	19.56	Colin Kaepernick	35.14
WR	Demaryius Thomas	8.50	Antonio Brown	29.60
WR	Antonio Brown	29.60	Kelvin Benjamin	12.30
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	12.30	Davante Adams	27.80
RB	Theo Riddick	8.30	Isaiah Crowell	10.10
RB	Jordan Howard	14.20	Jordan Howard	14.20
TE	Greg Olsen	6.50	Greg Olsen	6.50
W/R/T	Frank Gore	3.60	Devontae Booker	10.60
K	Stephen Hauschka	4.00	Stephen Hauschka	4.00
DEF	Eagles	0.49	Eagles	0.49

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 29.60 points (27.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 37.72 points left. Optimal 166.86 vs. actual 129.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	16.28	Tyrod Taylor	20.44
WR	Michael Crabtree	17.00	Rishard Matthews	13.90
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	9.50	Malcolm Mitchell	18.70
WR	Jarvis Landry	6.84	Michael Crabtree	17.00
RB	Jonathan Stewart	21.60	Jeremy Hill	11.20
RB	Jeremy Hill	11.20	Jonathan Stewart	21.60
TE	Delanie Walker	12.50	Delanie Walker	12.50
W/R/T	Rishard Matthews	13.90	Mark Ingram II	31.20
K	Caleb Sturgis	10.00	Caleb Sturgis	10.00
DEF	Patriots	10.32	Patriots	10.32

Carried by One Guy: Jonathan Stewart, 21.60 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 22 – 28, 2016

Miller

106.58

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

138.67

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.50 points left. Optimal 112.08 vs. actual 106.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	19.68	Philip Rivers	19.68
WR	Brandon Marshall	15.70	Doug Baldwin	6.90
WR	Doug Baldwin	6.90	Brandon Marshall	15.70
WR	Jordan Matthews	6.70	Mike Wallace	7.10
RB	Lamar Miller	7.00	Carlos Hyde	18.00
RB	Carlos Hyde	18.00	Tevin Coleman	8.30
TE	Tyler Eifert	15.30	Tyler Eifert	15.30
W/R/T	Mike Wallace	7.10	Kyle Rudolph	10.90
K	Dustin Hopkins	6.00	Dustin Hopkins	6.00
DEF	Vikings	4.20	Vikings	4.20

Carried by One Guy: Philip Rivers, 19.68 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 33.04 points left. Optimal 171.71 vs. actual 138.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	25.12	Kirk Cousins	32.16
WR	DeSean Jackson	21.80	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	18.10
WR	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	18.10	Donte Moncrief	13.50
WR	Sterling Shepard	2.20	DeSean Jackson	21.80
RB	LeGarrette Blount	6.70	Spencer Ware	10.60
RB	Todd Gurley	10.90	Todd Gurley	10.90
TE	Travis Kelce	16.10	Travis Kelce	16.10
W/R/T	Spencer Ware	10.60	Quincy Enunwa	21.40
K	Justin Tucker	19.00	Justin Tucker	19.00
DEF	Seahawks	8.15	Seahawks	8.15

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 25.12 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 22 – 28, 2016

Kev

91.78

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Adam

127.14

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.90 points left. Optimal 99.68 vs. actual 91.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	20.44	Cam Newton	20.44
WR	Kenny Britt	13.70	Michael Floyd	4.10
WR	Michael Floyd	4.10	Marqise Lee	12.62
WR	Marqise Lee	12.62	Kenny Britt	13.70
RB	Jay Ajayi	12.10	Matt Asiata	11.60
RB	Rob Kelley	5.20	Jay Ajayi	12.10
TE	C.J. Fiedorowicz	6.20	Ladarius Green	7.70
W/R/T	James Starks	9.30	James Starks	9.30
K	Dan Bailey	8.00	Dan Bailey	8.00
DEF	Cardinals	0.12	Cardinals	0.12

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 20.44 points (22.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.28 points left. Optimal 152.42 vs. actual 127.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	21.64	Marcus Mariota	21.64
WR	Pierre Garcon	6.30	Marvin Jones Jr.	7.40
WR	Randall Cobb	7.10	Tyrell Williams	17.00
WR	Tyrell Williams	17.00	Tyreek Hill	31.28
RB	Le'Veon Bell	24.20	Le'Veon Bell	24.20
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	25.00	Ezekiel Elliott	25.00
TE	Antonio Gates	0.00	Antonio Gates	0.00
W/R/T	Tim Hightower	17.50	Tim Hightower	17.50
K	Graham Gano	1.00	Graham Gano	1.00
DEF	Dolphins	7.40	Dolphins	7.40

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 25.00 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 22 – 28, 2016

Big Hut

120.55

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

117.20

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.44 points left. Optimal 130.99 vs. actual 120.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	34.50	Drew Brees	34.50
WR	T.Y. Hilton	6.90	Torrey Smith	9.90
WR	Cole Beasley	8.10	Jamison Crowder	12.80
WR	Jamison Crowder	12.80	Will Fuller V	8.54
RB	Devonta Freeman	20.70	Devonta Freeman	20.70
RB	Melvin Gordon III	10.90	Melvin Gordon III	10.90
TE	Eric Ebron	0.00	Martellus Bennett	4.10
W/R/T	Jerick McKinnon	9.10	Chris Ivory	12.00
K	Adam Vinatieri	1.00	Adam Vinatieri	1.00
DEF	Chiefs	16.55	Chiefs	16.55

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 34.50 points (28.6% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.50 points left. Optimal 135.70 vs. actual 117.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	19.04	Tom Brady	19.04
WR	Steve Smith	4.00	Dez Bryant	9.70
WR	Dez Bryant	9.70	Golden Tate	10.20
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	27.70	Emmanuel Sanders	27.70
RB	LeSean McCoy	30.40	Paul Perkins	5.30
RB	Paul Perkins	5.30	LeSean McCoy	30.40
TE	Rob Gronkowski	0.00	Jimmy Graham	7.70
W/R/T	Jimmy Graham	7.70	Julian Edelman	12.30
K	Matt Bryant	9.00	Matt Bryant	9.00
DEF	Titans	4.36	Titans	4.36

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: LeSean McCoy, 30.40 points (25.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Drew Brees scored 34.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–7	6.909	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Demich	3–9	3.636	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Kev	4–8	4.636	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 2
Miller	6–6	5.727	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 2
Martin	6–6	6.636	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	6–6	5.455	+4.5	+0.409	3 / 2
Big Hut	9–3	7.182	+0.5	+0.045	2 / 1
Fischer	6–6	4.818	+3.5	+0.318	4 / 1
Krajcik	7–5	7.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	7–5	6.909	-1.5	-0.136	1 / 2
Adam	7–5	6.818	-2.5	-0.227	1 / 2
Joe Shore	6–6	5.909	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2016 week 12 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 12