2016 week 16 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 20 – 26, 2016

j-mart

121.48

Miller

88.78

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.50 points left. Optimal 129.98 vs. actual 121.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	24.72	Andrew Luck	24.72
WR	Mike Evans	19.20	Mike Evans	19.20
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	22.50	Odell Beckham Jr.	22.50
WR	Brandin Cooks	12.30	Brandin Cooks	12.30
RB	Rashad Jennings	7.10	Jacquizz Rodgers	14.80
RB	Kenneth Dixon	6.30	Rashad Jennings	7.10
TE	Coby Fleener	4.00	Coby Fleener	4.00
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	12.80	Michael Thomas	12.80
K	Brandon McManus	6.60	Brandon McManus	6.60
DEF	Panthers	5.96	Panthers	5.96

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 24.72 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.20 points left. Optimal 119.98 vs. actual 88.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	20.88	Philip Rivers	20.88
WR	Doug Baldwin	32.20	Doug Baldwin	32.20
WR	Jordan Matthews	2.20	Stefon Diggs	10.90
WR	Stefon Diggs	10.90	Mike Wallace	4.10
RB	Lamar Miller	0.00	Carlos Hyde	11.70
RB	Carlos Hyde	11.70	Tevin Coleman	21.00
TE	Tyler Eifert	0.00	Kyle Rudolph	8.30
W/R/T	Bilal Powell	8.40	Bilal Powell	8.40
K	Matt Prater	3.00	Matt Prater	3.00
DEF	Vikings	-0.50	Vikings	-0.50

Carried by One Guy: Doug Baldwin, 32.20 points (36.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Consolation

Dec 20 – 26, 2016

Josh

116.32

Fischer

105.36

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 35.56 points left. Optimal 151.88 vs. actual 116.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	26.14	Blake Bortles	28.20
WR	Demaryius Thomas	3.50	Antonio Brown	20.60
WR	Antonio Brown	20.60	Kelvin Benjamin	14.30
WR	Davante Adams	12.40	Davante Adams	12.40
RB	Devontae Booker	8.10	Isaiah Crowell	19.80
RB	Jordan Howard	15.30	Jordan Howard	15.30
TE	Greg Olsen	8.90	Greg Olsen	8.90
W/R/T	Theo Riddick	0.00	Eli Rogers	11.00
K	Cairo Santos	7.00	Cairo Santos	7.00
DEF	Eagles	14.38	Eagles	14.38

Carried by One Guy: Colin Kaepernick, 26.14 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.86 points left. Optimal 132.22 vs. actual 105.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	12.50	Tyrod Taylor	33.16
WR	Michael Crabtree	12.50	Rishard Matthews	10.60
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	5.80	DeAndre Hopkins	5.80
WR	Jarvis Landry	4.90	Michael Crabtree	12.50
RB	Mark Ingram II	24.30	Mark Ingram II	24.30
RB	Jeremy Hill	0.80	Dion Lewis	6.20
TE	Delanie Walker	9.80	Delanie Walker	9.80
W/R/T	Rishard Matthews	10.60	Jonathan Stewart	5.70
K	Caleb Sturgis	7.00	Caleb Sturgis	7.00
DEF	Patriots	17.16	Patriots	17.16

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Mark Ingram II, 24.30 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Colin Kaepernick scored 26.14; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 20 – 26, 2016

Krajcik

89.62

Horgan

161.69

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.58 points left. Optimal 118.20 vs. actual 89.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	19.98	Matt Ryan	19.98
WR	Julio Jones	8.00	Julio Jones	8.00
WR	Amari Cooper	10.10	Amari Cooper	10.10
WR	J.J. Nelson	22.70	J.J. Nelson	22.70
RB	DeMarco Murray	7.00	DeMarco Murray	7.00
RB	Latavius Murray	6.10	Darren Sproles	13.30
TE	Zach Ertz	4.30	Lance Kendricks	5.10
W/R/T	Doug Martin	0.00	DeVante Parker	16.50
K	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00
DEF	Ravens	2.44	Raiders	6.52

Carried by One Guy: J.J. Nelson, 22.70 points (25.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 38.78 points left. Optimal 200.47 vs. actual 161.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	39.18	Aaron Rodgers	39.18
WR	DeSean Jackson	15.90	Adam Thielen	40.98
WR	Taylor Gabriel	3.00	Sterling Shepard	15.80
WR	Sterling Shepard	15.80	DeSean Jackson	15.90
RB	LeGarrette Blount	17.00	LeGarrette Blount	17.00
RB	Spencer Ware	9.20	Todd Gurley	16.20
TE	Travis Kelce	29.50	Travis Kelce	29.50
W/R/T	Todd Gurley	16.20	Donte Moncrief	10.00
K	Justin Tucker	14.00	Justin Tucker	14.00
DEF	Seahawks	1.91	Seahawks	1.91

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 39.18 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 20 – 26, 2016

Big Hut

97.76

Adam

130.37

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.50 points left. Optimal 115.26 vs. actual 97.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	16.06	Drew Brees	16.06
WR	T.Y. Hilton	16.50	T.Y. Hilton	16.50
WR	Cole Beasley	4.50	Ty Montgomery II	6.42
WR	Jamison Crowder	0.80	Will Fuller V	5.40
RB	Devonta Freeman	12.80	Chris Ivory	17.40
RB	Ty Montgomery II	6.42	Devonta Freeman	12.80
TE	Eric Ebron	13.30	Eric Ebron	13.30
W/R/T	Jerick McKinnon	11.00	Jerick McKinnon	11.00
K	Adam Vinatieri	6.00	Adam Vinatieri	6.00
DEF	Chiefs	10.38	Chiefs	10.38

Carried by One Guy: T.Y. Hilton, 16.50 points (16.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.62 points left. Optimal 140.99 vs. actual 130.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	8.26	Joe Flacco	14.48
WR	Pierre Garcon	11.40	Tyrell Williams	14.40
WR	Tyrell Williams	14.40	Tyreek Hill	16.26
WR	Tyreek Hill	16.26	Pierre Garcon	11.40
RB	Le'Veon Bell	29.20	Le'Veon Bell	29.20
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	21.70	Ezekiel Elliott	21.70
TE	Antonio Gates	19.40	Antonio Gates	19.40
W/R/T	Kenneth Farrow	7.70	James White	12.10
K	Sebastian Janikowski	1.00	Sebastian Janikowski	1.00
DEF	Dolphins	1.05	Dolphins	1.05

Carried by One Guy: Le'Veon Bell, 29.20 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

2016 week 16 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Consolation

Josh lineup

Fischer lineup

Playoff

Krajcik lineup

Horgan lineup

Playoff

Big Hut lineup

Adam lineup