2016 week 1 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 8 – 12, 2016

j-mart

135.97

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Demich

155.42

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.30 points left. Optimal 141.27 vs. actual 135.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	37.50	Andrew Luck	37.50
WR	Mike Evans	18.40	Mike Evans	18.40
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	9.30	Odell Beckham Jr.	9.30
WR	Brandin Cooks	32.40	Brandin Cooks	32.40
RB	Ryan Mathews	13.70	Ryan Mathews	13.70
RB	Charles Sims	11.60	Charles Sims	11.60
TE	Coby Fleener	1.10	Jimmy Graham	1.60
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	4.00	Michael Thomas	8.80
K	Mason Crosby	7.00	Mason Crosby	7.00
DEF	Rams	0.97	Rams	0.97

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 37.50 points (27.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Willie Snead IV scored 29.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.80 points left. Optimal 173.22 vs. actual 155.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	11.92	Russell Wilson	11.92
WR	Jordy Nelson	12.20	Chris Hogan	13.50
WR	Allen Robinson	10.20	Willie Snead IV	29.70
WR	Willie Snead IV	29.70	Jordy Nelson	12.20
RB	Matt Forte	18.00	Matt Forte	18.00
RB	Danny Woodhead	20.50	Danny Woodhead	20.50
TE	Jason Witten	11.10	Jason Witten	11.10
W/R/T	Giovani Bernard	4.00	Mohamed Sanu	18.50
K	Dan Bailey	15.00	Dan Bailey	15.00
DEF	Vikings	22.80	Vikings	22.80

Carried by One Guy: Willie Snead IV, 29.70 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 8 – 12, 2016

Martin

126.54

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

152.32

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.44 points left. Optimal 136.98 vs. actual 126.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	24.36	Derek Carr	24.36
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	24.10	Travis Benjamin	6.86
WR	Travis Benjamin	6.86	Nelson Agholor	13.70
WR	Sammy Watkins	6.30	Larry Fitzgerald	24.10
RB	David Johnson	21.20	David Johnson	21.20
RB	Jeremy Langford	13.30	Jeremy Langford	13.30
TE	Jordan Reed	9.90	Jordan Reed	9.90
W/R/T	Tavon Austin	4.26	Thomas Rawls	7.30
K	Graham Gano	9.00	Graham Gano	9.00
DEF	Broncos	7.26	Broncos	7.26

Carried by One Guy: Derek Carr, 24.36 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.36 points left. Optimal 157.68 vs. actual 152.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	23.80	Matt Ryan	26.36
WR	Julio Jones	14.60	Julio Jones	14.60
WR	Amari Cooper	20.70	Amari Cooper	20.70
WR	Corey Coleman	7.90	Corey Coleman	7.90
RB	Doug Martin	12.10	DeMarco Murray	20.20
RB	Latavius Murray	13.70	Latavius Murray	13.70
TE	Dwayne Allen	15.30	Dwayne Allen	15.30
W/R/T	DeMarco Murray	20.20	Julius Thomas	14.90
K	Stephen Gostkowski	14.00	Stephen Gostkowski	14.00
DEF	Texans	10.02	Texans	10.02

Carried by One Guy: Ben Roethlisberger, 23.80 points (15.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 8 – 12, 2016

Josh

114.95

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Fischer

91.01

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 39.76 points left. Optimal 154.71 vs. actual 114.95.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	5.54	Blake Bortles	17.00
WR	Demaryius Thomas	6.80	Antonio Brown	30.60
WR	Antonio Brown	30.60	Keenan Allen	9.30
WR	Keenan Allen	9.30	Kelvin Benjamin	18.10
RB	Frank Gore	9.80	Theo Riddick	25.30
RB	Rashad Jennings	8.30	Frank Gore	9.80
TE	Greg Olsen	10.80	Greg Olsen	10.80
W/R/T	Isaiah Crowell	14.80	Isaiah Crowell	14.80
K	Matt Prater	7.00	Matt Prater	7.00
DEF	Eagles	12.01	Eagles	12.01

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 30.60 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.10 points left. Optimal 104.11 vs. actual 91.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	18.94	Jameis Winston	25.54
WR	Michael Crabtree	14.20	DeAndre Hopkins	13.90
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	13.90	Jarvis Landry	9.72
WR	Jarvis Landry	9.72	Michael Crabtree	14.20
RB	Jonathan Stewart	6.40	Mark Ingram II	9.70
RB	Mark Ingram II	9.70	Jeremy Hill	9.10
TE	Delanie Walker	5.70	Delanie Walker	5.70
W/R/T	Vincent Jackson	2.80	Justin Forsett	6.60
K	Sebastian Janikowski	8.00	Sebastian Janikowski	8.00
DEF	Raiders	1.65	Raiders	1.65

Carried by One Guy: Carson Palmer, 18.94 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Antonio Brown scored 30.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 8 – 12, 2016

Miller

163.05

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

139.46

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.00 points left. Optimal 176.05 vs. actual 163.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	19.34	Andy Dalton	19.34
WR	Brandon Marshall	4.70	Doug Baldwin	19.70
WR	Doug Baldwin	19.70	Jordan Matthews	22.90
WR	Jordan Matthews	22.90	Mike Wallace	17.70
RB	Lamar Miller	15.70	Lamar Miller	15.70
RB	C.J. Anderson	27.90	C.J. Anderson	27.90
TE	Zach Ertz	8.80	Zach Ertz	8.80
W/R/T	Carlos Hyde	22.30	Carlos Hyde	22.30
K	Blair Walsh	15.00	Blair Walsh	15.00
DEF	Bengals	6.71	Bengals	6.71

Carried by One Guy: C.J. Anderson, 27.90 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.80 points left. Optimal 141.26 vs. actual 139.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	23.56	Aaron Rodgers	23.56
WR	DeSean Jackson	15.20	Rishard Matthews	4.10
WR	Kamar Aiken	2.40	Donte Moncrief	15.40
WR	Donte Moncrief	15.40	DeSean Jackson	15.20
RB	LeSean McCoy	15.00	Terrance West	4.80
RB	Todd Gurley	4.70	LeSean McCoy	15.00
TE	Travis Kelce	10.40	Travis Kelce	10.40
W/R/T	Spencer Ware	31.40	Spencer Ware	31.40
K	Justin Tucker	9.00	Justin Tucker	9.00
DEF	Seahawks	12.40	Seahawks	12.40

Carried by One Guy: Spencer Ware, 31.40 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: C.J. Anderson scored 27.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 8 – 12, 2016

Kev

139.75

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Adam

125.89

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.30 points left. Optimal 147.05 vs. actual 139.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	21.16	Cam Newton	21.16
WR	Jeremy Maclin	14.70	A.J. Green	32.00
WR	A.J. Green	32.00	Alshon Jeffery	14.50
WR	Alshon Jeffery	14.50	Jeremy Maclin	14.70
RB	Ameer Abdullah	20.50	Ameer Abdullah	20.50
RB	Duke Johnson	6.50	Duke Johnson	6.50
TE	Eric Ebron	13.10	Eric Ebron	13.10
W/R/T	Michael Floyd	7.60	Eli Rogers	14.90
K	Chandler Catanzaro	3.00	Chandler Catanzaro	3.00
DEF	Cardinals	6.69	Cardinals	6.69

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Green, 32.00 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.70 points left. Optimal 130.59 vs. actual 125.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	18.28	Eli Manning	18.28
WR	Eric Decker	10.70	Eric Decker	10.70
WR	Randall Cobb	9.80	Marvin Jones Jr.	10.50
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	10.50	Tajae Sharpe	11.10
RB	DeAngelo Williams	34.10	Ezekiel Elliott	11.70
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	11.70	DeAngelo Williams	34.10
TE	Antonio Gates	3.50	Antonio Gates	3.50
W/R/T	Christine Michael	8.10	Arian Foster	11.50
K	Chris Boswell	9.00	Chris Boswell	9.00
DEF	Jets	10.21	Jets	10.21

Carried by One Guy: DeAngelo Williams, 34.10 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: A.J. Green scored 32.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 8 – 12, 2016

Big Hut

97.67

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

98.71

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.10 points left. Optimal 115.77 vs. actual 97.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	33.42	Drew Brees	33.42
WR	Golden Tate	7.80	Golden Tate	7.80
WR	T.Y. Hilton	10.90	T.Y. Hilton	10.90
WR	Allen Hurns	9.50	Allen Hurns	9.50
RB	Adrian Peterson	3.10	Devonta Freeman	6.00
RB	Devonta Freeman	6.00	Melvin Gordon III	17.70
TE	Martellus Bennett	2.90	Martellus Bennett	2.90
W/R/T	Melvin Gordon III	17.70	Will Fuller V	21.20
K	Stephen Hauschka	5.00	Stephen Hauschka	5.00
DEF	Chiefs	1.35	Chiefs	1.35

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 33.42 points (34.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Matthew Stafford scored 28.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.70 points left. Optimal 108.41 vs. actual 98.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	28.10	Matthew Stafford	28.10
WR	Julian Edelman	11.70	Emmanuel Sanders	7.40
WR	Dez Bryant	1.30	Sterling Shepard	11.80
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	7.40	Julian Edelman	11.70
RB	Eddie Lacy	8.30	Eddie Lacy	8.30
RB	T.J. Yeldon	14.90	T.J. Yeldon	14.90
TE	Clive Walford	4.00	Clive Walford	4.00
W/R/T	Sterling Shepard	11.80	LeGarrette Blount	11.00
K	Brandon McManus	3.00	Brandon McManus	3.00
DEF	Panthers	8.21	Panthers	8.21

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 28.10 points (28.5% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	0–1	0.545	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Demich	1–0	0.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	1–0	0.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	1–0	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	0–1	0.455	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–0	0.273	+2.5	+0.227	1 / 0
Big Hut	0–1	0.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–1	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	1–0	0.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	0–1	0.636	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Adam	0–1	0.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	1–0	0.182	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2016 week 1 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 1