2016 week 9 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 1 – 7, 2016

j-mart

122.72

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

123.13

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.30 points left. Optimal 131.02 vs. actual 122.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	12.74	Andrew Luck	12.74
WR	Mike Evans	34.50	Mike Evans	34.50
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	18.60	Odell Beckham Jr.	18.60
WR	Brandin Cooks	9.10	Brandin Cooks	9.10
RB	Terrance West	3.20	Ryan Mathews	8.00
RB	Derrick Henry	0.00	Wendell Smallwood	3.50
TE	Coby Fleener	5.70	Coby Fleener	5.70
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	21.80	Michael Thomas	21.80
K	Mason Crosby	7.00	Mason Crosby	7.00
DEF	Panthers	10.08	Panthers	10.08

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 34.50 points (28.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Rodgers scored 26.18; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 123.13 vs. actual 123.13.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	26.18	Aaron Rodgers	26.18
WR	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	13.20	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	13.20
WR	Donte Moncrief	13.00	Donte Moncrief	13.00
WR	Sterling Shepard	12.50	Sterling Shepard	12.50
RB	DuJuan Harris	20.70	DuJuan Harris	20.70
RB	Todd Gurley	9.40	Todd Gurley	9.40
TE	Travis Kelce	8.30	Travis Kelce	8.30
W/R/T	Quincy Enunwa	3.00	Quincy Enunwa	3.00
K	Justin Tucker	9.00	Justin Tucker	9.00
DEF	Seahawks	7.85	Seahawks	7.85

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 26.18 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 1 – 7, 2016

Demich

131.86

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Krajcik

157.41

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.30 points left. Optimal 152.16 vs. actual 131.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	26.28	Russell Wilson	26.28
WR	Jordy Nelson	18.90	Mohamed Sanu	9.90
WR	Allen Robinson	17.10	Allen Robinson	17.10
WR	Willie Snead IV	5.10	Jordy Nelson	18.90
RB	Matt Forte	16.20	Mike Gillislee	10.60
RB	Mike Gillislee	10.60	Matt Forte	16.20
TE	Jack Doyle	8.60	Jack Doyle	8.60
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	9.90	Jason Witten	25.40
K	Wil Lutz	11.00	Wil Lutz	11.00
DEF	Cowboys	8.18	Cowboys	8.18

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 26.28 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Latavius Murray scored 33.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.20 points left. Optimal 168.61 vs. actual 157.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	29.76	Matt Ryan	29.76
WR	Julio Jones	23.10	Julio Jones	23.10
WR	Amari Cooper	8.60	Kendall Wright	7.40
WR	Corey Coleman	5.60	Amari Cooper	8.60
RB	Darren Sproles	10.12	DeMarco Murray	17.50
RB	DeMarco Murray	17.50	Darren Sproles	10.12
TE	Julius Thomas	3.10	Lance Kendricks	12.50
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	33.20	Latavius Murray	33.20
K	Brandon McManus	11.00	Brandon McManus	11.00
DEF	Ravens	15.43	Ravens	15.43

Carried by One Guy: Latavius Murray, 33.20 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 1 – 7, 2016

Kev

82.89

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

132.47

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 82.89 vs. actual 82.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	14.60	Cam Newton	14.60
WR	Jeremy Maclin	0.00	Victor Cruz	5.10
WR	Kenny Britt	12.90	Jeremy Maclin	0.00
WR	Victor Cruz	5.10	Kenny Britt	12.90
RB	Duke Johnson	5.64	Duke Johnson	5.64
RB	Jay Ajayi	22.50	Jay Ajayi	22.50
TE	Dennis Pitta	2.40	Dennis Pitta	2.40
W/R/T	Matt Asiata	5.10	Matt Asiata	5.10
K	Dan Bailey	5.00	Dan Bailey	5.00
DEF	Rams	9.65	Rams	9.65

Carried by One Guy: Jay Ajayi, 22.50 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 132.47 vs. actual 132.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	25.86	Tyrod Taylor	25.86
WR	Michael Crabtree	3.70	Rishard Matthews	21.30
WR	Rishard Matthews	21.30	Jarvis Landry	4.98
WR	Jarvis Landry	4.98	Michael Crabtree	3.70
RB	Jonathan Stewart	4.20	Mark Ingram II	32.10
RB	Mark Ingram II	32.10	Jonathan Stewart	4.20
TE	Delanie Walker	12.70	Delanie Walker	12.70
W/R/T	Charcandrick West	8.90	Charcandrick West	8.90
K	Caleb Sturgis	10.00	Caleb Sturgis	10.00
DEF	Raiders	8.73	Raiders	8.73

Carried by One Guy: Mark Ingram II, 32.10 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 1 – 7, 2016

Miller

98.66

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

134.41

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.30 points left. Optimal 113.96 vs. actual 98.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	18.70	Philip Rivers	18.70
WR	Brandon Marshall	7.10	Doug Baldwin	11.90
WR	Doug Baldwin	11.90	Jordan Matthews	11.80
WR	Jordan Matthews	11.80	Mike Wallace	22.40
RB	Bilal Powell	7.10	Bilal Powell	7.10
RB	Shaun Draughn	0.00	Shaun Draughn	0.00
TE	Kyle Rudolph	6.60	Kyle Rudolph	6.60
W/R/T	Stefon Diggs	16.28	Stefon Diggs	16.28
K	Matt Bryant	15.00	Matt Bryant	15.00
DEF	Vikings	4.18	Vikings	4.18

Carried by One Guy: Philip Rivers, 18.70 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Melvin Gordon III scored 36.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.54 points left. Optimal 148.95 vs. actual 134.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	26.72	Drew Brees	26.72
WR	T.Y. Hilton	11.20	T.Y. Hilton	11.20
WR	Cole Beasley	14.60	Cole Beasley	14.60
WR	Allen Hurns	0.00	Tyreek Hill	6.14
RB	Devonta Freeman	11.50	Devonta Freeman	11.50
RB	Melvin Gordon III	36.10	Melvin Gordon III	36.10
TE	Eric Ebron	12.70	Eric Ebron	12.70
W/R/T	Torrey Smith	2.80	Chris Ivory	11.20
K	Adam Vinatieri	6.00	Adam Vinatieri	6.00
DEF	Chiefs	12.79	Chiefs	12.79

Carried by One Guy: Melvin Gordon III, 36.10 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 1 – 7, 2016

Martin

51.87

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Josh

96.32

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 51.87 vs. actual 51.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	7.66	Derek Carr	7.66
WR	Travis Benjamin	1.00	Travis Benjamin	1.00
WR	Tavon Austin	3.10	Tavon Austin	3.10
WR	Adam Humphries	13.10	Adam Humphries	13.10
RB	Antone Smith	4.70	Bobby Rainey	0.00
RB	Bobby Rainey	0.00	Antone Smith	4.70
TE	Jesse James	2.30	Jesse James	2.30
W/R/T	Nelson Agholor	6.10	Nelson Agholor	6.10
K	Cairo Santos	13.00	Cairo Santos	13.00
DEF	Broncos	0.91	Broncos	0.91

Carried by One Guy: Adam Humphries, 13.10 points (25.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 35.52 points left. Optimal 131.84 vs. actual 96.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	10.36	Blake Bortles	21.48
WR	Demaryius Thomas	8.10	Antonio Brown	18.10
WR	Antonio Brown	18.10	Kelvin Benjamin	10.10
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	10.10	Eli Rogers	15.30
RB	Theo Riddick	8.10	Isaiah Crowell	8.70
RB	Devontae Booker	3.50	Frank Gore	20.10
TE	Greg Olsen	13.70	Greg Olsen	13.70
W/R/T	Davante Adams	12.10	Davante Adams	12.10
K	Stephen Hauschka	8.00	Stephen Hauschka	8.00
DEF	Eagles	4.26	Eagles	4.26

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 18.10 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 1 – 7, 2016

Adam

126.82

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Joe Shore

127.67

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.00 points left. Optimal 144.82 vs. actual 126.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	27.92	Marcus Mariota	27.92
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	1.00	Randall Cobb	8.40
WR	Ty Montgomery II	10.60	Ty Montgomery II	10.60
WR	Tyrell Williams	15.50	Tyrell Williams	15.50
RB	Christine Michael	6.10	Ezekiel Elliott	22.20
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	22.20	Tim Hightower	16.70
TE	Antonio Gates	16.00	Antonio Gates	16.00
W/R/T	Le'Veon Bell	10.00	Le'Veon Bell	10.00
K	Sebastian Janikowski	10.00	Sebastian Janikowski	10.00
DEF	Lions	7.50	Lions	7.50

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Marcus Mariota, 27.92 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jimmy Graham scored 28.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.80 points left. Optimal 142.47 vs. actual 127.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	21.54	Jameis Winston	21.54
WR	Dez Bryant	2.40	Golden Tate	19.50
WR	Golden Tate	19.50	Emmanuel Sanders	7.20
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	7.20	Steve Smith	8.70
RB	LeSean McCoy	14.00	T.J. Yeldon	13.00
RB	C.J. Prosise	2.00	LeSean McCoy	14.00
TE	Jimmy Graham	28.30	Jimmy Graham	28.30
W/R/T	Steve Smith	8.70	Paul Perkins	6.20
K	Josh Lambo	11.00	Josh Lambo	11.00
DEF	Chargers	13.03	Chargers	13.03

Carried by One Guy: Jimmy Graham, 28.30 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–5	4.909	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Demich	2–7	2.727	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Kev	4–5	3.545	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Miller	5–4	4.909	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 2
Martin	4–5	5.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	5–4	4.182	+4.5	+0.409	3 / 2
Big Hut	6–3	5.818	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Fischer	4–5	3.818	0.0	0.000	3 / 1
Krajcik	6–3	5.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	5–4	4.455	-1.0	-0.091	1 / 1
Adam	4–5	4.364	-2.5	-0.227	1 / 2
Joe Shore	5–4	4.364	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2016 week 9 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 9