2016 week 13 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 29 – Dec 5, 2016

j-mart

116.41

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Kev

89.31

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.26 points left. Optimal 146.67 vs. actual 116.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	29.72	Andrew Luck	29.72
WR	Mike Evans	7.30	Odell Beckham Jr.	17.00
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	17.00	Brandin Cooks	11.20
WR	Brandin Cooks	11.20	Tyler Lockett	23.46
RB	Rashad Jennings	14.30	Kenneth Dixon	9.70
RB	Kenneth Dixon	9.70	Rashad Jennings	14.30
TE	Coby Fleener	11.10	Coby Fleener	11.10
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	6.20	Terrance West	20.30
K	Brandon McManus	9.00	Brandon McManus	9.00
DEF	Panthers	0.89	Panthers	0.89

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 29.72 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.70 points left. Optimal 100.01 vs. actual 89.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	12.48	Cam Newton	12.48
WR	Anquan Boldin	6.00	Michael Floyd	9.30
WR	Kenny Britt	13.70	Anquan Boldin	6.00
WR	Marqise Lee	5.90	Kenny Britt	13.70
RB	Jay Ajayi	11.70	Jay Ajayi	11.70
RB	Rob Kelley	6.30	Rob Kelley	6.30
TE	Ladarius Green	22.00	Ladarius Green	22.00
W/R/T	James Starks	0.10	C.J. Fiedorowicz	7.40
K	Dan Bailey	5.00	Dan Bailey	5.00
DEF	Cardinals	6.13	Cardinals	6.13

Carried by One Guy: Ladarius Green, 22.00 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Andrew Luck scored 29.72; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 29 – Dec 5, 2016

Josh

90.08

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

135.20

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.14 points left. Optimal 100.22 vs. actual 90.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	2.16	Eli Manning	11.70
WR	Demaryius Thomas	9.10	Demaryius Thomas	9.10
WR	Antonio Brown	14.86	Antonio Brown	14.86
WR	Davante Adams	2.20	Kelvin Benjamin	2.80
RB	Theo Riddick	10.20	Theo Riddick	10.20
RB	Jordan Howard	31.70	Jordan Howard	31.70
TE	Greg Olsen	4.50	Greg Olsen	4.50
W/R/T	Devontae Booker	10.20	Devontae Booker	10.20
K	Cairo Santos	2.00	Cairo Santos	2.00
DEF	Eagles	3.16	Eagles	3.16

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Howard, 31.70 points (35.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.80 points left. Optimal 143.00 vs. actual 135.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	17.56	Ben Roethlisberger	17.56
WR	Julio Jones	16.80	Julio Jones	16.80
WR	Kenny Stills	3.10	Amari Cooper	12.90
WR	Amari Cooper	12.90	DeVante Parker	10.90
RB	Darren Sproles	14.04	Latavius Murray	24.00
RB	Latavius Murray	24.00	Darren Sproles	14.04
TE	Lance Kendricks	2.30	Lance Kendricks	2.30
W/R/T	Doug Martin	13.30	Doug Martin	13.30
K	Stephen Gostkowski	16.00	Stephen Gostkowski	16.00
DEF	Ravens	15.20	Ravens	15.20

Carried by One Guy: Latavius Murray, 24.00 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 29 – Dec 5, 2016

Big Hut

135.87

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

116.85

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.42 points left. Optimal 141.29 vs. actual 135.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	9.04	Drew Brees	9.04
WR	T.Y. Hilton	21.10	T.Y. Hilton	21.10
WR	Cole Beasley	3.30	Jamison Crowder	12.04
WR	Jamison Crowder	12.04	Will Fuller V	8.72
RB	Devonta Freeman	24.50	Devonta Freeman	24.50
RB	Melvin Gordon III	21.80	Melvin Gordon III	21.80
TE	Eric Ebron	5.80	Eric Ebron	5.80
W/R/T	Jerick McKinnon	14.00	Jerick McKinnon	14.00
K	Adam Vinatieri	13.00	Adam Vinatieri	13.00
DEF	Chiefs	11.29	Chiefs	11.29

Carried by One Guy: Devonta Freeman, 24.50 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 116.85 vs. actual 116.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	25.84	Matthew Stafford	25.84
WR	Michael Crabtree	16.90	DeAndre Hopkins	13.30
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	13.30	Jarvis Landry	14.10
WR	Jarvis Landry	14.10	Michael Crabtree	16.90
RB	Mark Ingram II	7.80	Mark Ingram II	7.80
RB	Jeremy Hill	11.50	Jeremy Hill	11.50
TE	Josh Hill	0.80	Josh Hill	0.80
W/R/T	Malcolm Mitchell	12.20	Malcolm Mitchell	12.20
K	Caleb Sturgis	2.00	Caleb Sturgis	2.00
DEF	Patriots	12.41	Patriots	12.41

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 25.84 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Devonta Freeman scored 24.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 29 – Dec 5, 2016

Martin

133.40

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

121.34

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.20 points left. Optimal 141.60 vs. actual 133.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	20.80	Derek Carr	20.80
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	12.80	Sammy Watkins	5.30
WR	Sammy Watkins	5.30	Tyler Boyd	8.60
WR	Tyler Boyd	8.60	Larry Fitzgerald	12.80
RB	David Johnson	34.00	David Johnson	34.00
RB	Thomas Rawls	26.30	Thomas Rawls	26.30
TE	Vernon Davis	7.20	Vernon Davis	7.20
W/R/T	Marquess Wilson	0.00	Cameron Meredith	8.20
K	Graham Gano	1.00	Graham Gano	1.00
DEF	Broncos	17.40	Broncos	17.40

Carried by One Guy: David Johnson, 34.00 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.78 points left. Optimal 134.12 vs. actual 121.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	15.96	Kirk Cousins	16.84
WR	Donte Moncrief	10.60	Donte Moncrief	10.60
WR	Taylor Gabriel	6.90	Taylor Gabriel	6.90
WR	Sterling Shepard	10.10	Sterling Shepard	10.10
RB	LeGarrette Blount	14.80	LeGarrette Blount	14.80
RB	Spencer Ware	18.70	Spencer Ware	18.70
TE	Travis Kelce	20.00	Travis Kelce	20.00
W/R/T	Todd Gurley	5.70	Cameron Brate	17.60
K	Justin Tucker	10.00	Justin Tucker	10.00
DEF	Seahawks	8.58	Seahawks	8.58

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 20.00 points (16.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: David Johnson scored 34.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 29 – Dec 5, 2016

Miller

92.86

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Adam

105.14

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.18 points left. Optimal 110.04 vs. actual 92.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	14.80	Andy Dalton	24.18
WR	Brandon Marshall	6.30	Doug Baldwin	10.00
WR	Doug Baldwin	10.00	Stefon Diggs	9.90
WR	Stefon Diggs	9.90	Mike Wallace	8.90
RB	Lamar Miller	2.30	Carlos Hyde	10.30
RB	Carlos Hyde	10.30	Kapri Bibbs	4.90
TE	Tyler Eifert	9.50	Tyler Eifert	9.50
W/R/T	Tevin Coleman	4.90	Kyle Rudolph	7.50
K	Matt Prater	15.00	Matt Prater	15.00
DEF	Vikings	9.86	Vikings	9.86

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Matt Prater, 15.00 points (16.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Le'Veon Bell scored 21.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.12 points left. Optimal 117.26 vs. actual 105.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Alex Smith	12.50	Alex Smith	12.50
WR	Randall Cobb	10.28	Randall Cobb	10.28
WR	Tyrell Williams	11.70	Dontrelle Inman	11.90
WR	Tyreek Hill	9.68	Tyrell Williams	11.70
RB	Le'Veon Bell	21.20	Le'Veon Bell	21.20
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	18.50	Ezekiel Elliott	18.50
TE	Antonio Gates	5.70	Antonio Gates	5.70
W/R/T	Tim Hightower	1.40	Pierre Garcon	11.30
K	Sebastian Janikowski	15.00	Sebastian Janikowski	15.00
DEF	Dolphins	-0.82	Dolphins	-0.82

Carried by One Guy: Le'Veon Bell, 21.20 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 29 – Dec 5, 2016

Demich

73.07

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

141.28

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.44 points left. Optimal 97.51 vs. actual 73.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	15.98	Russell Wilson	15.98
WR	Jordy Nelson	23.80	Allen Robinson	4.60
WR	Allen Robinson	4.60	Willie Snead IV	4.80
WR	Willie Snead IV	4.80	Jordy Nelson	23.80
RB	Matt Forte	9.40	Mike Gillislee	16.90
RB	Wendell Smallwood	2.16	Matt Forte	9.40
TE	Jason Witten	0.00	Jack Doyle	3.00
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	3.60	Chris Hogan	10.30
K	Wil Lutz	8.00	Wil Lutz	8.00
DEF	Commanders	0.73	Commanders	0.73

Carried by One Guy: Jordy Nelson, 23.80 points (32.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.04 points left. Optimal 145.32 vs. actual 141.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	14.86	Jameis Winston	15.30
WR	Julian Edelman	16.10	Dez Bryant	16.40
WR	Dez Bryant	16.40	Golden Tate	26.50
WR	Golden Tate	26.50	Julian Edelman	16.10
RB	LeSean McCoy	24.60	T.J. Yeldon	9.70
RB	T.J. Yeldon	9.70	LeSean McCoy	24.60
TE	Jimmy Graham	15.30	Jimmy Graham	15.30
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	4.70	Steve Smith	8.30
K	Matt Bryant	10.00	Matt Bryant	10.00
DEF	Chargers	3.12	Chargers	3.12

Carried by One Guy: Golden Tate, 26.50 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–7	7.364	-1.5	-0.136	1 / 2
Demich	3–10	3.636	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Kev	4–9	4.727	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 2
Miller	6–7	6.000	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 2
Martin	7–6	7.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	6–7	5.636	+4.5	+0.409	3 / 2
Big Hut	10–3	8.091	+0.5	+0.045	2 / 1
Fischer	6–7	5.364	+3.0	+0.273	4 / 2
Krajcik	8–5	8.182	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	7–6	7.545	-3.0	-0.273	1 / 3
Adam	8–5	7.182	-1.0	-0.091	2 / 2
Joe Shore	7–6	6.909	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2016 week 13 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 13