2016 week 8 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 25 – 31, 2016

j-mart

110.75

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

130.56

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.10 points left. Optimal 120.85 vs. actual 110.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	18.40	Andrew Luck	18.40
WR	Mike Evans	9.00	Mike Evans	9.00
WR	Brandin Cooks	12.40	Brandin Cooks	12.40
WR	Tyler Lockett	8.78	Tyler Lockett	8.78
RB	Ryan Mathews	7.60	Jacquizz Rodgers	14.30
RB	Jacquizz Rodgers	14.30	Derrick Henry	17.70
TE	Coby Fleener	5.60	Coby Fleener	5.60
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	9.30	Michael Thomas	9.30
K	Mason Crosby	5.00	Mason Crosby	5.00
DEF	Panthers	20.37	Panthers	20.37

Carried by One Guy: Panthers, 20.37 points (18.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Amari Cooper scored 31.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 130.56 vs. actual 130.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	24.42	Matt Ryan	24.42
WR	Anquan Boldin	0.90	Julio Jones	4.40
WR	Julio Jones	4.40	Amari Cooper	31.30
WR	Amari Cooper	31.30	Anquan Boldin	0.90
RB	DeMarco Murray	21.30	DeMarco Murray	21.30
RB	Latavius Murray	9.60	Latavius Murray	9.60
TE	Julius Thomas	10.30	Julius Thomas	10.30
W/R/T	Darren Sproles	12.98	Darren Sproles	12.98
K	Stephen Gostkowski	13.00	Stephen Gostkowski	13.00
DEF	Buccaneers	2.36	Buccaneers	2.36

Carried by One Guy: Amari Cooper, 31.30 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 25 – 31, 2016

Demich

108.13

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

114.70

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 39.26 points left. Optimal 147.39 vs. actual 108.13.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	9.22	Dak Prescott	27.28
WR	Jordy Nelson	17.40	Chris Hogan	17.10
WR	Allen Robinson	10.00	Mohamed Sanu	18.90
WR	Willie Snead IV	8.60	Jordy Nelson	17.40
RB	Matt Forte	22.80	Giovani Bernard	13.10
RB	Giovani Bernard	13.10	Matt Forte	22.80
TE	Jack Doyle	4.60	Jason Witten	8.60
W/R/T	Chris Hogan	17.10	Mike Gillislee	16.90
K	Mike Nugent	2.00	Mike Nugent	2.00
DEF	Patriots	3.31	Patriots	3.31

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Matt Forte, 22.80 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Carson Palmer scored 24.52; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.20 points left. Optimal 148.90 vs. actual 114.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	24.52	Carson Palmer	24.52
WR	Michael Crabtree	16.80	Rishard Matthews	11.80
WR	Rishard Matthews	11.80	DeAndre Hopkins	6.40
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	6.40	Michael Crabtree	16.80
RB	Jonathan Stewart	22.50	Jordan Howard	30.20
RB	Mark Ingram II	-1.50	Jonathan Stewart	22.50
TE	Delanie Walker	9.80	Zach Miller	12.30
W/R/T	Jeremy Hill	13.80	Jeremy Hill	13.80
K	Matt Prater	8.00	Matt Prater	8.00
DEF	Raiders	2.58	Raiders	2.58

Carried by One Guy: Carson Palmer, 24.52 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 25 – 31, 2016

Kev

121.16

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Big Hut

128.70

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 121.16 vs. actual 121.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	12.78	Cam Newton	12.78
WR	Jeremy Maclin	11.80	A.J. Green	18.60
WR	A.J. Green	18.60	Alshon Jeffery	14.30
WR	Alshon Jeffery	14.30	Jeremy Maclin	11.80
RB	Duke Johnson	15.16	Duke Johnson	15.16
RB	Rob Kelley	14.70	Rob Kelley	14.70
TE	C.J. Fiedorowicz	12.80	C.J. Fiedorowicz	12.80
W/R/T	Matt Asiata	8.80	Matt Asiata	8.80
K	Dustin Hopkins	9.00	Dustin Hopkins	9.00
DEF	Cardinals	3.22	Cardinals	3.22

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Green, 18.60 points (15.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jamison Crowder scored 23.66; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.04 points left. Optimal 139.74 vs. actual 128.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	20.70	Drew Brees	20.70
WR	T.Y. Hilton	2.60	Dontrelle Inman	9.20
WR	Jamison Crowder	23.66	Cole Beasley	7.30
WR	Will Fuller V	2.86	Jamison Crowder	23.66
RB	Devonta Freeman	19.80	Devonta Freeman	19.80
RB	Melvin Gordon III	19.50	Melvin Gordon III	19.50
TE	Martellus Bennett	5.50	Martellus Bennett	5.50
W/R/T	Allen Hurns	19.30	Allen Hurns	19.30
K	Adam Vinatieri	2.00	Adam Vinatieri	2.00
DEF	Chiefs	12.78	Chiefs	12.78

Carried by One Guy: Jamison Crowder, 23.66 points (18.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 25 – 31, 2016

Miller

135.09

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Josh

88.43

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 135.09 vs. actual 135.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	19.46	Andy Dalton	19.46
WR	Brandon Marshall	8.80	Doug Baldwin	7.10
WR	Doug Baldwin	7.10	Jordan Matthews	18.00
WR	Jordan Matthews	18.00	Brandon Marshall	8.80
RB	Bilal Powell	14.40	Bilal Powell	14.40
RB	Lamar Miller	13.30	Lamar Miller	13.30
TE	Tyler Eifert	22.70	Tyler Eifert	22.70
W/R/T	Stefon Diggs	17.82	Stefon Diggs	17.82
K	Matt Bryant	10.00	Matt Bryant	10.00
DEF	Vikings	3.51	Vikings	3.51

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Eifert, 22.70 points (16.8% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 43.26 points left. Optimal 131.69 vs. actual 88.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	14.42	Blake Bortles	31.68
WR	Demaryius Thomas	10.40	Demaryius Thomas	10.40
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	8.30	Kelvin Benjamin	8.30
WR	Marqise Lee	1.50	Davante Adams	13.40
RB	Frank Gore	13.20	Theo Riddick	23.30
RB	Devontae Booker	14.90	Devontae Booker	14.90
TE	Greg Olsen	1.60	Gary Barnidge	5.70
W/R/T	Davante Adams	13.40	Isaiah Crowell	13.30
K	Stephen Hauschka	8.00	Stephen Hauschka	8.00
DEF	Eagles	2.71	Eagles	2.71

Carried by One Guy: Devontae Booker, 14.90 points (16.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 25 – 31, 2016

Horgan

146.43

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Adam

90.94

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 146.43 vs. actual 146.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	33.84	Aaron Rodgers	33.84
WR	DeSean Jackson	6.30	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	17.10
WR	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	17.10	Donte Moncrief	12.00
WR	Donte Moncrief	12.00	DeSean Jackson	6.30
RB	LeGarrette Blount	10.30	LeGarrette Blount	10.30
RB	Spencer Ware	5.70	Spencer Ware	5.70
TE	Travis Kelce	21.60	Travis Kelce	21.60
W/R/T	Quincy Enunwa	17.30	Quincy Enunwa	17.30
K	Dan Bailey	11.00	Dan Bailey	11.00
DEF	Seahawks	11.29	Seahawks	11.29

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 33.84 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.20 points left. Optimal 91.14 vs. actual 90.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	19.90	Marcus Mariota	19.90
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	4.80	Brandon LaFell	1.10
WR	John Brown	12.90	Marvin Jones Jr.	4.80
WR	Tyrell Williams	0.90	John Brown	12.90
RB	Christine Michael	10.70	Christine Michael	10.70
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	16.80	Ezekiel Elliott	16.80
TE	Antonio Gates	11.30	Antonio Gates	11.30
W/R/T	James White	3.90	James White	3.90
K	Sebastian Janikowski	6.00	Sebastian Janikowski	6.00
DEF	Bengals	3.74	Bengals	3.74

Carried by One Guy: Marcus Mariota, 19.90 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 25 – 31, 2016

Martin

148.07

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

119.41

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.60 points left. Optimal 149.67 vs. actual 148.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	37.82	Derek Carr	37.82
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	12.40	Travis Benjamin	11.90
WR	Travis Benjamin	11.90	Adam Humphries	7.30
WR	Adam Humphries	7.30	Larry Fitzgerald	12.40
RB	Knile Davis	1.80	Ronnie Hillman	3.40
RB	David Johnson	14.30	David Johnson	14.30
TE	Jordan Reed	20.40	Jordan Reed	20.40
W/R/T	Robert Woods	7.00	Robert Woods	7.00
K	Cairo Santos	12.00	Cairo Santos	12.00
DEF	Broncos	23.15	Broncos	23.15

Carried by One Guy: Derek Carr, 37.82 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.80 points left. Optimal 122.21 vs. actual 119.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	32.10	Tom Brady	32.10
WR	Julian Edelman	12.08	Dez Bryant	21.30
WR	Dez Bryant	21.30	Emmanuel Sanders	8.80
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	8.80	Julian Edelman	12.08
RB	Chris Thompson	7.66	Chris Thompson	7.66
RB	T.J. Yeldon	7.60	T.J. Yeldon	7.60
TE	Rob Gronkowski	21.40	Rob Gronkowski	21.40
W/R/T	Jimmy Graham	4.90	Golden Tate	7.70
K	Josh Lambo	0.00	Josh Lambo	0.00
DEF	Jets	3.57	Jets	3.57

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 32.10 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Derek Carr scored 37.82; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–4	4.545	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Demich	2–6	2.000	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0
Kev	4–4	3.455	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Miller	5–3	4.636	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 2
Martin	4–4	5.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	4–4	4.000	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 2
Big Hut	5–3	4.909	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Fischer	3–5	3.000	0.0	0.000	3 / 1
Krajcik	5–3	4.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	4–4	4.000	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Adam	4–4	3.818	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Joe Shore	4–4	3.727	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2016 week 8 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 8