2016 week 7 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 18 – 24, 2016

j-mart

149.41

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

145.19

Rank 2; -4.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.80 points left. Optimal 155.21 vs. actual 149.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	29.82	Andrew Luck	29.82
WR	Mike Evans	25.60	Mike Evans	25.60
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	7.40	Odell Beckham Jr.	7.40
WR	Brandin Cooks	15.30	Brandin Cooks	15.30
RB	Jacquizz Rodgers	18.80	Ryan Mathews	6.80
RB	Terrance West	1.00	Jacquizz Rodgers	18.80
TE	Coby Fleener	5.40	Coby Fleener	5.40
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	20.00	Michael Thomas	20.00
K	Mason Crosby	8.00	Mason Crosby	8.00
DEF	Ravens	18.09	Ravens	18.09

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 29.82 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.90 points left. Optimal 149.09 vs. actual 145.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	24.34	Tyrod Taylor	24.34
WR	Michael Crabtree	19.60	Rishard Matthews	5.70
WR	Rishard Matthews	5.70	Jarvis Landry	12.64
WR	Jarvis Landry	12.64	Michael Crabtree	19.60
RB	Mark Ingram II	14.20	Mark Ingram II	14.20
RB	Jordan Howard	2.20	Jeremy Hill	28.20
TE	Delanie Walker	17.90	Delanie Walker	17.90
W/R/T	Jeremy Hill	28.20	DeAndre Hopkins	6.10
K	Matt Prater	8.00	Matt Prater	8.00
DEF	Packers	12.41	Packers	12.41

Carried by One Guy: Jeremy Hill, 28.20 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Andrew Luck scored 29.82; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 18 – 24, 2016

Demich

101.94

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

141.36

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.20 points left. Optimal 103.14 vs. actual 101.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	9.20	Russell Wilson	9.20
WR	Jordy Nelson	1.40	Mohamed Sanu	2.60
WR	Allen Robinson	1.90	Allen Robinson	1.90
WR	Willie Snead IV	13.20	Willie Snead IV	13.20
RB	Matt Forte	29.40	Giovani Bernard	15.20
RB	Giovani Bernard	15.20	Matt Forte	29.40
TE	Jack Doyle	18.30	Jack Doyle	18.30
W/R/T	Mike Gillislee	2.00	Mike Gillislee	2.00
K	Mike Nugent	7.00	Mike Nugent	7.00
DEF	Patriots	4.34	Patriots	4.34

Carried by One Guy: Matt Forte, 29.40 points (28.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.92 points left. Optimal 151.28 vs. actual 141.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	26.68	Drew Brees	26.68
WR	T.Y. Hilton	24.80	Dontrelle Inman	7.30
WR	Allen Hurns	6.50	T.Y. Hilton	24.80
WR	Will Fuller V	4.58	Allen Hurns	6.50
RB	Devonta Freeman	12.50	Devonta Freeman	12.50
RB	Melvin Gordon III	33.10	Melvin Gordon III	33.10
TE	Martellus Bennett	1.00	Jacob Tamme	8.20
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	16.30	Jamison Crowder	16.30
K	Adam Vinatieri	9.00	Adam Vinatieri	9.00
DEF	Rams	6.90	Rams	6.90

Carried by One Guy: Melvin Gordon III, 33.10 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 18 – 24, 2016

Kev

105.57

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Josh

132.42

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.50 points left. Optimal 120.07 vs. actual 105.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	7.64	Eli Manning	7.64
WR	Jeremy Maclin	6.00	A.J. Green	28.90
WR	A.J. Green	28.90	Michael Floyd	9.00
WR	Alshon Jeffery	4.80	Jeremy Maclin	6.00
RB	Matt Jones	0.70	Matt Asiata	11.00
RB	Mike Davis	8.10	Mike Davis	8.10
TE	Dennis Pitta	6.00	Dennis Pitta	6.00
W/R/T	Jay Ajayi	30.10	Jay Ajayi	30.10
K	Dustin Hopkins	5.00	Dustin Hopkins	5.00
DEF	Cardinals	8.33	Cardinals	8.33

Carried by One Guy: Jay Ajayi, 30.10 points (28.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.30 points left. Optimal 135.72 vs. actual 132.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Blake Bortles	13.14	Blake Bortles	13.14
WR	Pierre Garcon	3.20	Demaryius Thomas	13.00
WR	Demaryius Thomas	13.00	Antonio Brown	17.40
WR	Antonio Brown	17.40	Pierre Garcon	3.20
RB	Frank Gore	16.80	Isaiah Crowell	15.40
RB	Isaiah Crowell	15.40	Frank Gore	16.80
TE	Gary Barnidge	9.60	Gary Barnidge	9.60
W/R/T	Rashad Jennings	11.90	Devontae Booker	15.20
K	Stephen Hauschka	7.00	Stephen Hauschka	7.00
DEF	Eagles	24.98	Eagles	24.98

Carried by One Guy: Eagles, 24.98 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 18 – 24, 2016

Miller

109.01

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Martin

103.88

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.50 points left. Optimal 125.51 vs. actual 109.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	22.32	Andy Dalton	22.32
WR	Brandon Marshall	5.40	Doug Baldwin	9.90
WR	Doug Baldwin	9.90	Brandon Marshall	5.40
WR	Jordan Matthews	2.50	Mike Wallace	19.00
RB	Lamar Miller	8.20	Lamar Miller	8.20
RB	C.J. Anderson	18.70	C.J. Anderson	18.70
TE	Kyle Rudolph	8.00	Kyle Rudolph	8.00
W/R/T	Tevin Coleman	13.90	Tevin Coleman	13.90
K	Matt Bryant	12.00	Matt Bryant	12.00
DEF	Vikings	8.09	Vikings	8.09

Carried by One Guy: Andy Dalton, 22.32 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.94 points left. Optimal 107.82 vs. actual 103.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	12.40	Derek Carr	12.40
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	11.50	Travis Benjamin	7.40
WR	Travis Benjamin	7.40	Tavon Austin	18.26
WR	Tavon Austin	18.26	Larry Fitzgerald	11.50
RB	David Johnson	23.10	David Johnson	23.10
RB	Zach Zenner	8.90	Zach Zenner	8.90
TE	Jesse James	2.80	Jesse James	2.80
W/R/T	Eddie Royal	0.00	Adam Humphries	3.94
K	Cairo Santos	10.00	Cairo Santos	10.00
DEF	Broncos	9.52	Broncos	9.52

Carried by One Guy: David Johnson, 23.10 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Andy Dalton scored 22.32; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 18 – 24, 2016

Horgan

131.05

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

93.75

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.80 points left. Optimal 146.85 vs. actual 131.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	25.74	Aaron Rodgers	25.74
WR	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	2.80	Quincy Enunwa	14.30
WR	Cameron Meredith	1.70	Sterling Shepard	5.70
WR	Sterling Shepard	5.70	DeSean Jackson	6.00
RB	LeGarrette Blount	27.90	LeGarrette Blount	27.90
RB	Todd Gurley	12.20	Todd Gurley	12.20
TE	Travis Kelce	3.40	Travis Kelce	3.40
W/R/T	Spencer Ware	20.10	Spencer Ware	20.10
K	Justin Tucker	14.00	Justin Tucker	14.00
DEF	Seahawks	17.51	Seahawks	17.51

Carried by One Guy: LeGarrette Blount, 27.90 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.40 points left. Optimal 110.15 vs. actual 93.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	18.18	Tom Brady	18.18
WR	Julian Edelman	8.94	Golden Tate	12.30
WR	Golden Tate	12.30	Emmanuel Sanders	10.60
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	10.60	Julian Edelman	8.94
RB	LeSean McCoy	1.10	Chris Thompson	14.80
RB	Don Jackson	0.60	T.J. Yeldon	3.30
TE	Rob Gronkowski	17.30	Rob Gronkowski	17.30
W/R/T	Jimmy Graham	7.80	Jimmy Graham	7.80
K	Josh Lambo	17.00	Josh Lambo	17.00
DEF	Bills	-0.07	Bills	-0.07

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 18.18 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 18 – 24, 2016

Krajcik

109.85

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Adam

128.24

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.40 points left. Optimal 112.25 vs. actual 109.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	13.72	Matt Ryan	13.72
WR	Julio Jones	23.90	Julio Jones	23.90
WR	Amari Cooper	4.90	Amari Cooper	4.90
WR	DeVante Parker	3.50	Anquan Boldin	10.30
RB	DeMarco Murray	22.20	DeMarco Murray	22.20
RB	Latavius Murray	19.30	Latavius Murray	19.30
TE	Julius Thomas	9.50	Julius Thomas	9.50
W/R/T	Anquan Boldin	10.30	Darren Sproles	5.90
K	Stephen Gostkowski	2.00	Stephen Gostkowski	2.00
DEF	Texans	0.53	Texans	0.53

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 23.90 points (21.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Randall Cobb scored 23.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.70 points left. Optimal 144.94 vs. actual 128.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	16.68	Marcus Mariota	16.68
WR	Randall Cobb	23.10	Randall Cobb	23.10
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	11.40	Marvin Jones Jr.	11.40
WR	Ty Montgomery II	17.60	Ty Montgomery II	17.60
RB	Le'Veon Bell	19.90	Le'Veon Bell	19.90
RB	Christine Michael	7.00	James White	10.20
TE	Hunter Henry	2.10	Antonio Gates	6.30
W/R/T	James White	10.20	Tyrell Williams	19.50
K	Chris Boswell	12.00	Chris Boswell	12.00
DEF	Bengals	8.26	Bengals	8.26

Carried by One Guy: Randall Cobb, 23.10 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–3	4.273	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Demich	2–5	1.818	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0
Kev	4–3	2.909	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Miller	4–3	3.818	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 2
Martin	3–4	4.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	4–3	4.000	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 2
Big Hut	4–3	4.273	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Fischer	2–5	2.636	-1.5	-0.136	2 / 1
Krajcik	4–3	4.182	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	3–4	3.091	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Adam	4–3	3.727	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Joe Shore	4–3	3.273	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2016 week 7 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Adam lineup

Cumulative totals through week 7