2016 week 6 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 11 – 17, 2016

j-mart

143.57

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

116.91

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.80 points left. Optimal 167.37 vs. actual 143.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	23.38	Andrew Luck	23.38
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	38.20	Odell Beckham Jr.	38.20
WR	Brandin Cooks	29.00	Brandin Cooks	29.00
WR	Michael Thomas	16.30	Michael Thomas	16.30
RB	Justin Forsett	0.50	Ryan Mathews	6.00
RB	Ryan Mathews	6.00	Kenneth Dixon	1.70
TE	Jimmy Graham	11.90	Jimmy Graham	11.90
W/R/T	Sammie Coates	0.00	Coby Fleener	22.60
K	Mason Crosby	11.00	Mason Crosby	11.00
DEF	Ravens	7.29	Ravens	7.29

Carried by One Guy: Odell Beckham Jr., 38.20 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.86 points left. Optimal 125.77 vs. actual 116.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	34.60	Drew Brees	34.60
WR	T.Y. Hilton	6.50	Torrey Smith	15.36
WR	Cole Beasley	20.80	Cole Beasley	20.80
WR	Allen Hurns	9.90	Allen Hurns	9.90
RB	Devonta Freeman	6.50	Devonta Freeman	6.50
RB	Melvin Gordon III	9.40	Melvin Gordon III	9.40
TE	Martellus Bennett	7.30	Martellus Bennett	7.30
W/R/T	Chris Ivory	10.50	Chris Ivory	10.50
K	Adam Vinatieri	12.00	Adam Vinatieri	12.00
DEF	Rams	-0.59	Rams	-0.59

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 34.60 points (29.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Odell Beckham Jr. scored 38.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 11 – 17, 2016

Demich

75.55

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Josh

91.26

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.68 points left. Optimal 104.23 vs. actual 75.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	11.50	Dak Prescott	18.48
WR	Jordy Nelson	7.30	Mohamed Sanu	13.20
WR	Allen Robinson	6.40	Willie Snead IV	6.70
WR	Willie Snead IV	6.70	Jordy Nelson	7.30
RB	Matt Forte	2.70	Giovani Bernard	11.40
RB	Giovani Bernard	11.40	Mike Gillislee	12.10
TE	Jason Witten	6.20	Jason Witten	6.20
W/R/T	Chris Hogan	4.40	Tyler Boyd	9.90
K	Dan Bailey	12.00	Dan Bailey	12.00
DEF	Patriots	6.95	Patriots	6.95

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Dan Bailey, 12.00 points (15.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.60 points left. Optimal 94.86 vs. actual 91.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Blake Bortles	10.94	Blake Bortles	10.94
WR	Demaryius Thomas	4.00	Demaryius Thomas	4.00
WR	Antonio Brown	6.50	Antonio Brown	6.50
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	12.60	Kelvin Benjamin	12.60
RB	Frank Gore	13.30	Devontae Booker	6.30
RB	Isaiah Crowell	4.60	Frank Gore	13.30
TE	Greg Olsen	12.40	Greg Olsen	12.40
W/R/T	Rashad Jennings	5.50	Gary Barnidge	7.40
K	Nick Novak	6.00	Nick Novak	6.00
DEF	Eagles	15.42	Eagles	15.42

Carried by One Guy: Eagles, 15.42 points (16.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 11 – 17, 2016

Kev

128.84

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Martin

91.65

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 50.70 points left. Optimal 179.54 vs. actual 128.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	28.98	Cam Newton	28.98
WR	Jeremy Maclin	6.40	A.J. Green	11.80
WR	A.J. Green	11.80	Alshon Jeffery	12.80
WR	Alshon Jeffery	12.80	Kenny Britt	31.10
RB	Duke Johnson	15.52	Duke Johnson	15.52
RB	Matt Jones	21.50	Matt Jones	21.50
TE	Dennis Pitta	6.60	Dennis Pitta	6.60
W/R/T	Michael Floyd	9.20	Jay Ajayi	35.20
K	Chandler Catanzaro	4.00	Chandler Catanzaro	4.00
DEF	Cardinals	12.04	Cardinals	12.04

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 28.98 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.78 points left. Optimal 101.43 vs. actual 91.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	9.80	Derek Carr	9.80
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	7.90	Nelson Agholor	4.90
WR	Travis Benjamin	1.20	Larry Fitzgerald	7.90
WR	Tavon Austin	4.14	Eddie Royal	7.68
RB	David Johnson	35.30	David Johnson	35.30
RB	Zach Zenner	8.70	Zach Zenner	8.70
TE	Jesse James	2.30	Jesse James	2.30
W/R/T	Eddie Royal	7.68	Wendell Smallwood	10.22
K	Graham Gano	6.00	Graham Gano	6.00
DEF	Broncos	8.63	Broncos	8.63

Carried by One Guy: David Johnson, 35.30 points (38.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 11 – 17, 2016

Krajcik

97.34

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

110.20

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.92 points left. Optimal 126.26 vs. actual 97.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	9.56	Matt Ryan	23.60
WR	Julio Jones	25.40	Julio Jones	25.40
WR	Amari Cooper	19.90	Amari Cooper	19.90
WR	DeVante Parker	5.30	DeVante Parker	5.30
RB	DeMarco Murray	12.50	DeMarco Murray	12.50
RB	Jalen Richard	5.36	Jalen Richard	5.36
TE	Dwayne Allen	1.40	Julius Thomas	3.80
W/R/T	Darren Sproles	3.52	Anquan Boldin	16.00
K	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00
DEF	Texans	5.40	Texans	5.40

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 25.40 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Terrelle Pryor Sr. scored 24.34; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.76 points left. Optimal 142.96 vs. actual 110.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	12.46	Kirk Cousins	17.32
WR	DeSean Jackson	7.50	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	24.34
WR	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	24.34	Cameron Meredith	18.80
WR	Sterling Shepard	4.50	DeSean Jackson	7.50
RB	LeGarrette Blount	14.00	LeGarrette Blount	14.00
RB	Todd Gurley	11.70	Spencer Ware	25.30
TE	Travis Kelce	4.70	Travis Kelce	4.70
W/R/T	Jamaal Charles	11.70	Jamaal Charles	11.70
K	Justin Tucker	10.00	Justin Tucker	10.00
DEF	Seahawks	9.30	Seahawks	9.30

Carried by One Guy: Terrelle Pryor Sr., 24.34 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 11 – 17, 2016

Fischer

86.51

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Adam

104.74

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.54 points left. Optimal 98.05 vs. actual 86.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	12.42	Tyrod Taylor	19.96
WR	Michael Crabtree	2.00	DeAndre Hopkins	11.60
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	11.60	Jarvis Landry	12.82
WR	Jarvis Landry	12.82	Michael Crabtree	2.00
RB	Mark Ingram II	7.00	Mark Ingram II	7.00
RB	Jordan Howard	11.00	Jordan Howard	11.00
TE	Delanie Walker	2.60	Zach Miller	6.60
W/R/T	Jonathan Stewart	20.50	Jonathan Stewart	20.50
K	Sebastian Janikowski	5.00	Sebastian Janikowski	5.00
DEF	Steelers	1.57	Steelers	1.57

Carried by One Guy: Jonathan Stewart, 20.50 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Christine Michael scored 21.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.50 points left. Optimal 126.24 vs. actual 104.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brian Hoyer	14.08	Brian Hoyer	14.08
WR	Randall Cobb	14.80	Randall Cobb	14.80
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	8.30	Marvin Jones Jr.	8.30
WR	John Brown	7.96	John Brown	7.96
RB	Le'Veon Bell	15.80	James White	22.60
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	20.40	Ezekiel Elliott	20.40
TE	Antonio Gates	2.60	Hunter Henry	17.30
W/R/T	Christine Michael	21.80	Christine Michael	21.80
K	Chris Boswell	1.00	Chris Boswell	1.00
DEF	Jets	-2.00	Jets	-2.00

Carried by One Guy: Christine Michael, 21.80 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 11 – 17, 2016

Miller

107.06

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Joe Shore

158.40

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.60 points left. Optimal 113.66 vs. actual 107.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	21.86	Andy Dalton	21.86
WR	Brandon Marshall	8.50	Jordan Matthews	9.00
WR	Doug Baldwin	5.10	Brandon Marshall	8.50
WR	Jordan Matthews	9.00	Mike Wallace	11.70
RB	Lamar Miller	33.30	Lamar Miller	33.30
RB	C.J. Anderson	9.10	C.J. Anderson	9.10
TE	Zach Ertz	2.70	Zach Ertz	2.70
W/R/T	Carlos Hyde	5.20	Carlos Hyde	5.20
K	Matt Bryant	6.00	Matt Bryant	6.00
DEF	Titans	6.30	Titans	6.30

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Miller, 33.30 points (31.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.70 points left. Optimal 189.10 vs. actual 158.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	29.24	Tom Brady	29.24
WR	Julian Edelman	7.10	Golden Tate	28.80
WR	Golden Tate	28.80	Robert Woods	13.50
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	6.00	Julian Edelman	7.10
RB	LeSean McCoy	34.70	Terrance West	26.30
RB	T.J. Yeldon	3.10	LeSean McCoy	34.70
TE	Rob Gronkowski	27.70	Rob Gronkowski	27.70
W/R/T	Eddie Lacy	7.60	Eddie Lacy	7.60
K	Caleb Sturgis	7.00	Caleb Sturgis	7.00
DEF	Bills	7.16	Bills	7.16

Carried by One Guy: LeSean McCoy, 34.70 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–3	3.273	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Demich	2–4	1.727	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0
Kev	4–2	2.636	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Miller	3–3	3.455	-1.0	-0.091	0 / 2
Martin	3–3	3.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	3–3	3.273	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 2
Big Hut	3–3	3.455	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Fischer	2–4	1.727	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 0
Krajcik	4–2	3.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	2–4	2.455	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Adam	3–3	3.182	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Joe Shore	4–2	3.273	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2016 week 6 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 6