2016 week 14 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 6 – 12, 2016

Demich

64.52

Miller

126.04

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 39.36 points left. Optimal 103.88 vs. actual 64.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	5.50	Dak Prescott	6.70
WR	Jordy Nelson	19.10	Chris Hogan	24.10
WR	Allen Robinson	2.20	Willie Snead IV	11.50
WR	Willie Snead IV	11.50	Jordy Nelson	19.10
RB	Matt Forte	0.80	Mike Gillislee	3.40
RB	Wendell Smallwood	0.84	Charles Sims	6.50
TE	Jason Witten	4.60	Jason Witten	4.60
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	0.00	Jack Doyle	8.00
K	Wil Lutz	9.00	Wil Lutz	9.00
DEF	Commanders	10.98	Commanders	10.98

Carried by One Guy: Jordy Nelson, 19.10 points (29.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 39.76 points left. Optimal 165.80 vs. actual 126.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	7.44	Andy Dalton	16.90
WR	Brandon Marshall	4.80	Doug Baldwin	7.60
WR	Doug Baldwin	7.60	Jordan Matthews	11.90
WR	Stefon Diggs	7.00	Mike Wallace	7.70
RB	Lamar Miller	20.70	Lamar Miller	20.70
RB	Carlos Hyde	28.50	Carlos Hyde	28.50
TE	Tyler Eifert	19.30	Tyler Eifert	19.30
W/R/T	Jordan Matthews	11.90	Bilal Powell	34.40
K	Matt Prater	9.00	Matt Prater	9.00
DEF	Vikings	9.80	Vikings	9.80

Carried by One Guy: Carlos Hyde, 28.50 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 6 – 12, 2016

Kev

72.45

Fischer

94.19

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.02 points left. Optimal 98.47 vs. actual 72.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	11.50	Cam Newton	11.50
WR	Anquan Boldin	12.40	Marqise Lee	17.12
WR	Jeremy Maclin	2.10	Anquan Boldin	12.40
WR	Kenny Britt	11.70	Kenny Britt	11.70
RB	Jay Ajayi	6.80	Jay Ajayi	6.80
RB	Rob Kelley	15.80	Rob Kelley	15.80
TE	Ladarius Green	3.50	C.J. Fiedorowicz	4.70
W/R/T	James Starks	0.30	Matt Asiata	10.10
K	Dan Bailey	1.00	Dan Bailey	1.00
DEF	Cardinals	7.35	Cardinals	7.35

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Rob Kelley, 15.80 points (21.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jeremy Hill scored 23.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.80 points left. Optimal 112.99 vs. actual 94.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	16.42	Matthew Stafford	16.42
WR	Michael Crabtree	4.10	DeAndre Hopkins	4.30
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	4.30	Jarvis Landry	13.34
WR	Jarvis Landry	13.34	Michael Crabtree	4.10
RB	Mark Ingram II	2.80	Jeremy Hill	23.70
RB	Jeremy Hill	23.70	Jonathan Stewart	12.60
TE	Delanie Walker	4.80	Delanie Walker	4.80
W/R/T	Rishard Matthews	3.10	Malcolm Mitchell	12.10
K	Caleb Sturgis	12.00	Caleb Sturgis	12.00
DEF	Patriots	9.63	Patriots	9.63

Carried by One Guy: Jeremy Hill, 23.70 points (25.2% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 6 – 12, 2016

Horgan

112.34

Joe Shore

109.48

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.30 points left. Optimal 136.64 vs. actual 112.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	21.24	Aaron Rodgers	21.24
WR	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	0.80	Taylor Gabriel	15.70
WR	Donte Moncrief	0.00	Sterling Shepard	5.40
WR	Taylor Gabriel	15.70	DeSean Jackson	19.70
RB	LeGarrette Blount	14.40	LeGarrette Blount	14.40
RB	Spencer Ware	6.80	Spencer Ware	6.80
TE	Travis Kelce	14.60	Travis Kelce	14.60
W/R/T	Todd Gurley	15.80	Todd Gurley	15.80
K	Justin Tucker	13.00	Justin Tucker	13.00
DEF	Bengals	10.00	Bengals	10.00

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 21.24 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.70 points left. Optimal 125.18 vs. actual 109.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	28.14	Tom Brady	28.14
WR	Julian Edelman	11.18	Golden Tate	8.70
WR	Dez Bryant	-0.50	Steve Smith	7.70
WR	Golden Tate	8.70	Julian Edelman	11.18
RB	LeSean McCoy	19.80	T.J. Yeldon	12.50
RB	Duke Johnson	5.00	LeSean McCoy	19.80
TE	Jimmy Graham	2.10	Jimmy Graham	2.10
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	23.50	Emmanuel Sanders	23.50
K	Matt Bryant	6.00	Matt Bryant	6.00
DEF	Lions	5.56	Lions	5.56

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 28.14 points (25.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Rodgers scored 21.24; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 6 – 12, 2016

Martin

95.39

Adam

169.40

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.18 points left. Optimal 106.57 vs. actual 95.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	4.98	Derek Carr	4.98
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	2.70	Tavon Austin	13.88
WR	Sammy Watkins	13.40	Sammy Watkins	13.40
WR	Tyler Boyd	11.90	Tyler Boyd	11.90
RB	David Johnson	14.60	David Johnson	14.60
RB	Thomas Rawls	7.90	Thomas Rawls	7.90
TE	Jordan Reed	1.50	Jordan Reed	1.50
W/R/T	Cameron Meredith	16.20	Cameron Meredith	16.20
K	Graham Gano	16.00	Graham Gano	16.00
DEF	Broncos	6.21	Broncos	6.21

Carried by One Guy: Cameron Meredith, 16.20 points (17.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.76 points left. Optimal 183.16 vs. actual 169.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Flacco	21.06	Joe Flacco	21.06
WR	Pierre Garcon	14.40	Dontrelle Inman	16.10
WR	Tyrell Williams	7.80	Tyreek Hill	23.28
WR	Tyreek Hill	23.28	Pierre Garcon	14.40
RB	Le'Veon Bell	51.80	Le'Veon Bell	51.80
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	12.70	Ezekiel Elliott	12.70
TE	Antonio Gates	8.60	Antonio Gates	8.60
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	4.80	James White	10.26
K	Sebastian Janikowski	8.00	Sebastian Janikowski	8.00
DEF	Dolphins	16.96	Dolphins	16.96

Carried by One Guy: Le'Veon Bell, 51.80 points (30.6% of positive starter points).

2016 week 14 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

Demich lineup

Miller lineup

Consolation

Kev lineup

Fischer lineup

Playoff

Horgan lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Playoff

Martin lineup

Adam lineup