2016 week 10 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 8 – 14, 2016

j-mart

125.98

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Adam

174.17

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.72 points left. Optimal 135.70 vs. actual 125.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Flacco	22.14	Joe Flacco	22.14
WR	Mike Evans	8.60	Mike Evans	8.60
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	20.70	Odell Beckham Jr.	20.70
WR	Brandin Cooks	17.34	Brandin Cooks	17.34
RB	Ryan Mathews	30.90	Ryan Mathews	30.90
RB	Terrance West	8.20	Kenneth Dixon	10.50
TE	Coby Fleener	3.60	Coby Fleener	3.60
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	2.00	Tyler Lockett	9.42
K	Mason Crosby	5.00	Mason Crosby	5.00
DEF	Panthers	7.50	Panthers	7.50

Carried by One Guy: Ryan Mathews, 30.90 points (24.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.64 points left. Optimal 178.81 vs. actual 174.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	27.80	Marcus Mariota	27.80
WR	Randall Cobb	5.10	Randall Cobb	5.10
WR	Ty Montgomery II	3.46	John Brown	5.14
WR	Tyrell Williams	23.00	Tyrell Williams	23.00
RB	Le'Veon Bell	29.90	Le'Veon Bell	29.90
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	41.90	Ezekiel Elliott	41.90
TE	Antonio Gates	14.30	Antonio Gates	14.30
W/R/T	John Brown	5.14	Hunter Henry	8.10
K	Graham Gano	6.00	Graham Gano	6.00
DEF	Dolphins	17.57	Dolphins	17.57

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 41.90 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 8 – 14, 2016

Kev

115.39

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

134.81

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.20 points left. Optimal 120.59 vs. actual 115.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	23.84	Cam Newton	23.84
WR	Kenny Britt	16.40	A.J. Green	16.30
WR	A.J. Green	16.30	Marqise Lee	7.94
WR	Alshon Jeffery	6.70	Kenny Britt	16.40
RB	Jay Ajayi	8.50	Jay Ajayi	8.50
RB	Rob Kelley	10.00	Rob Kelley	10.00
TE	C.J. Fiedorowicz	4.10	C.J. Fiedorowicz	4.10
W/R/T	Marqise Lee	7.94	James Starks	11.90
K	Dan Bailey	14.00	Dan Bailey	14.00
DEF	Cardinals	7.61	Cardinals	7.61

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 23.84 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ben Roethlisberger scored 30.42; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.50 points left. Optimal 163.31 vs. actual 134.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	30.42	Ben Roethlisberger	30.42
WR	Julio Jones	20.50	Julio Jones	20.50
WR	Kendall Wright	7.80	Kendall Wright	7.80
WR	Corey Coleman	3.20	DeVante Parker	14.80
RB	Darren Sproles	11.60	DeMarco Murray	29.00
RB	DeMarco Murray	29.00	Darren Sproles	11.60
TE	Lance Kendricks	0.50	Julius Thomas	11.40
W/R/T	Doug Martin	11.10	Doug Martin	11.10
K	Stephen Gostkowski	6.00	Brandon McManus	12.00
DEF	Ravens	14.69	Ravens	14.69

Carried by One Guy: Ben Roethlisberger, 30.42 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 8 – 14, 2016

Miller

100.03

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

106.31

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 47.90 points left. Optimal 147.93 vs. actual 100.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	19.04	Philip Rivers	19.04
WR	Brandon Marshall	3.50	Doug Baldwin	26.90
WR	Jordan Matthews	10.30	Jordan Matthews	10.30
WR	Stefon Diggs	25.00	Stefon Diggs	25.00
RB	Lamar Miller	8.30	Bilal Powell	18.40
RB	Carlos Hyde	1.40	Lamar Miller	8.30
TE	Tyler Eifert	11.10	Tyler Eifert	11.10
W/R/T	Mike Wallace	7.90	Kyle Rudolph	15.40
K	Matt Bryant	10.00	Matt Bryant	10.00
DEF	Vikings	3.49	Vikings	3.49

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 25.00 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Delanie Walker scored 24.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.30 points left. Optimal 107.61 vs. actual 106.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	16.64	Carson Palmer	16.64
WR	Rishard Matthews	13.80	Rishard Matthews	13.80
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	7.30	DeAndre Hopkins	7.30
WR	Jarvis Landry	8.30	Jarvis Landry	8.30
RB	Jonathan Stewart	3.90	Mark Ingram II	7.30
RB	Mark Ingram II	7.30	Jeremy Hill	10.60
TE	Delanie Walker	24.90	Delanie Walker	24.90
W/R/T	Jeremy Hill	10.60	Zach Miller	5.20
K	Caleb Sturgis	9.00	Caleb Sturgis	9.00
DEF	Patriots	4.57	Patriots	4.57

Carried by One Guy: Delanie Walker, 24.90 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 8 – 14, 2016

Martin

107.99

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

108.92

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.14 points left. Optimal 110.13 vs. actual 107.99.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jay Cutler	5.98	Jay Cutler	5.98
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	21.20	Dontrelle Inman	6.80
WR	Tavon Austin	4.66	Cameron Meredith	11.50
WR	Cameron Meredith	11.50	Larry Fitzgerald	21.20
RB	Ronnie Hillman	0.20	Ronnie Hillman	0.20
RB	David Johnson	24.60	David Johnson	24.60
TE	Jordan Reed	5.10	Jordan Reed	5.10
W/R/T	Adam Humphries	7.58	Adam Humphries	7.58
K	Cairo Santos	13.00	Cairo Santos	13.00
DEF	Broncos	14.17	Broncos	14.17

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: David Johnson, 24.60 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Drew Brees scored 23.02; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.60 points left. Optimal 110.52 vs. actual 108.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	23.02	Drew Brees	23.02
WR	Cole Beasley	5.80	Torrey Smith	3.60
WR	Allen Hurns	2.30	Cole Beasley	5.80
WR	Jamison Crowder	12.52	Jamison Crowder	12.52
RB	Devonta Freeman	9.60	Devonta Freeman	9.60
RB	Melvin Gordon III	15.70	Melvin Gordon III	15.70
TE	Martellus Bennett	15.70	Martellus Bennett	15.70
W/R/T	Jerick McKinnon	4.80	Chris Ivory	5.10
K	Chris Boswell	5.00	Chris Boswell	5.00
DEF	Chiefs	14.48	Chiefs	14.48

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 23.02 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 8 – 14, 2016

Demich

131.56

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

120.14

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 131.56 vs. actual 131.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	28.52	Russell Wilson	28.52
WR	Jordy Nelson	26.60	Allen Robinson	25.20
WR	Allen Robinson	25.20	Willie Snead IV	19.20
WR	Willie Snead IV	19.20	Jordy Nelson	26.60
RB	Matt Forte	11.90	Giovani Bernard	5.10
RB	Giovani Bernard	5.10	Matt Forte	11.90
TE	Jason Witten	8.90	Jason Witten	8.90
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	2.40	Mohamed Sanu	2.40
K	Wil Lutz	4.00	Wil Lutz	4.00
DEF	Cowboys	-0.26	Cowboys	-0.26

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 28.52 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 120.14 vs. actual 120.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	29.54	Aaron Rodgers	29.54
WR	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	7.30	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	7.30
WR	J.J. Nelson	1.90	J.J. Nelson	1.90
WR	Sterling Shepard	12.70	Sterling Shepard	12.70
RB	LeGarrette Blount	24.90	LeGarrette Blount	24.90
RB	Todd Gurley	7.70	Todd Gurley	7.70
TE	Travis Kelce	6.60	Travis Kelce	6.60
W/R/T	Spencer Ware	8.70	Spencer Ware	8.70
K	Justin Tucker	8.00	Justin Tucker	8.00
DEF	Texans	12.80	Texans	12.80

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 29.54 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Russell Wilson scored 28.52; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 8 – 14, 2016

Josh

137.70

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

104.80

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.30 points left. Optimal 140.00 vs. actual 137.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	18.00	Eli Manning	18.00
WR	Demaryius Thomas	18.70	Demaryius Thomas	18.70
WR	Antonio Brown	29.84	Antonio Brown	29.84
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	9.90	Eli Rogers	12.20
RB	Devontae Booker	9.80	Devontae Booker	9.80
RB	Jordan Howard	10.00	Jordan Howard	10.00
TE	Greg Olsen	6.40	Greg Olsen	6.40
W/R/T	Davante Adams	20.60	Davante Adams	20.60
K	Mike Nugent	7.00	Mike Nugent	7.00
DEF	Eagles	7.46	Eagles	7.46

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 29.84 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.04 points left. Optimal 120.84 vs. actual 104.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	13.34	Jameis Winston	20.48
WR	Steve Smith	14.50	Dez Bryant	22.60
WR	Dez Bryant	22.60	Emmanuel Sanders	7.90
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	7.90	Steve Smith	14.50
RB	C.J. Prosise	18.80	T.J. Yeldon	7.40
RB	Paul Perkins	3.10	C.J. Prosise	18.80
TE	Jimmy Graham	6.80	Rob Gronkowski	7.10
W/R/T	Rob Gronkowski	7.10	Julian Edelman	11.40
K	Josh Lambo	7.00	Josh Lambo	7.00
DEF	Chargers	3.66	Chargers	3.66

Carried by One Guy: Dez Bryant, 22.60 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–6	5.545	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Demich	3–7	3.455	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Kev	4–6	4.000	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Miller	5–5	4.909	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 2
Martin	4–6	5.273	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	6–4	5.091	+4.5	+0.409	3 / 2
Big Hut	7–3	6.182	-1.0	-0.091	1 / 1
Fischer	5–5	4.000	+3.5	+0.318	4 / 1
Krajcik	7–3	6.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	5–5	5.000	-1.5	-0.136	1 / 2
Adam	5–5	5.364	-2.5	-0.227	1 / 2
Joe Shore	5–5	4.455	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2016 week 10 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 10