2016 week 15 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 13 – 19, 2016

j-mart

122.28

Fischer

129.46

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 50.00 points left. Optimal 172.28 vs. actual 122.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	18.80	Carson Palmer	22.72
WR	Mike Evans	7.90	Odell Beckham Jr.	16.48
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	16.48	Brandin Cooks	36.10
WR	Brandin Cooks	36.10	Tyler Lockett	25.78
RB	Rashad Jennings	3.80	Ryan Mathews	23.80
RB	Kenneth Dixon	9.60	Derrick Henry	17.80
TE	Coby Fleener	2.00	Coby Fleener	2.00
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	14.70	Michael Thomas	14.70
K	Brandon McManus	3.00	Brandon McManus	3.00
DEF	Panthers	9.90	Panthers	9.90

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Brandin Cooks, 36.10 points (29.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jarvis Landry scored 20.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.20 points left. Optimal 141.66 vs. actual 129.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	10.22	Tyrod Taylor	15.86
WR	Michael Crabtree	15.00	DeAndre Hopkins	12.70
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	12.70	Jarvis Landry	20.30
WR	Jarvis Landry	20.30	Michael Crabtree	15.00
RB	Mark Ingram II	10.20	Dion Lewis	11.86
RB	Jeremy Hill	11.60	Jonathan Stewart	16.50
TE	Delanie Walker	8.50	Delanie Walker	8.50
W/R/T	Rishard Matthews	12.50	Rishard Matthews	12.50
K	Caleb Sturgis	11.00	Caleb Sturgis	11.00
DEF	Patriots	17.44	Patriots	17.44

Carried by One Guy: Jarvis Landry, 20.30 points (15.7% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 13 – 19, 2016

Demich

84.13

Kev

92.73

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.50 points left. Optimal 96.63 vs. actual 84.13.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	20.36	Russell Wilson	20.36
WR	Jordy Nelson	17.90	Mohamed Sanu	5.90
WR	Allen Robinson	2.50	Willie Snead IV	11.60
WR	Willie Snead IV	11.60	Jordy Nelson	17.90
RB	Matt Forte	3.30	Mike Gillislee	9.70
RB	Wendell Smallwood	0.00	Charles Sims	3.40
TE	Jason Witten	8.10	Jason Witten	8.10
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	5.90	Jack Doyle	5.20
K	Wil Lutz	12.00	Wil Lutz	12.00
DEF	Commanders	2.47	Commanders	2.47

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 20.36 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Cam Newton scored 22.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.76 points left. Optimal 117.49 vs. actual 92.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	22.00	Cam Newton	22.00
WR	Anquan Boldin	2.80	Alshon Jeffery	17.90
WR	Jeremy Maclin	11.20	Jeremy Maclin	11.20
WR	Kenny Britt	7.00	Kenny Britt	7.00
RB	Jay Ajayi	5.10	Jay Ajayi	5.10
RB	Rob Kelley	13.50	Rob Kelley	13.50
TE	Ladarius Green	9.70	Ladarius Green	9.70
W/R/T	James Starks	0.00	Marqise Lee	9.66
K	Dan Bailey	14.00	Dan Bailey	14.00
DEF	Cardinals	7.43	Cardinals	7.43

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 22.00 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 13 – 19, 2016

Miller

85.68

Josh

88.77

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.40 points left. Optimal 104.08 vs. actual 85.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	14.24	Philip Rivers	14.24
WR	Doug Baldwin	12.00	Doug Baldwin	12.00
WR	Jordan Matthews	5.70	Jordan Matthews	5.70
WR	Stefon Diggs	2.30	Mike Wallace	7.00
RB	Lamar Miller	15.90	Lamar Miller	15.90
RB	Carlos Hyde	6.20	Tevin Coleman	7.60
TE	Tyler Eifert	1.40	Kyle Rudolph	13.70
W/R/T	Bilal Powell	21.70	Bilal Powell	21.70
K	Matt Prater	7.00	Matt Prater	7.00
DEF	Vikings	-0.76	Vikings	-0.76

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Bilal Powell, 21.70 points (25.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jordan Howard scored 19.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.00 points left. Optimal 116.77 vs. actual 88.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	17.42	Colin Kaepernick	17.42
WR	Demaryius Thomas	12.60	Demaryius Thomas	12.60
WR	Antonio Brown	7.40	Antonio Brown	7.40
WR	Davante Adams	3.50	Eli Rogers	16.00
RB	Devontae Booker	4.30	Devontae Booker	4.30
RB	Jordan Howard	19.30	Jordan Howard	19.30
TE	Greg Olsen	11.50	Greg Olsen	11.50
W/R/T	Theo Riddick	0.00	Frank Gore	15.50
K	Cairo Santos	5.00	Cairo Santos	5.00
DEF	Eagles	7.75	Eagles	7.75

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Howard, 19.30 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 13 – 19, 2016

Big Hut

144.63

Horgan

99.32

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.82 points left. Optimal 157.45 vs. actual 144.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	31.36	Drew Brees	31.36
WR	T.Y. Hilton	6.00	T.Y. Hilton	6.00
WR	Cole Beasley	6.80	Cole Beasley	6.80
WR	Jamison Crowder	2.68	Will Fuller V	6.90
RB	Devonta Freeman	34.50	Devonta Freeman	34.50
RB	Ty Montgomery II	32.44	Ty Montgomery II	32.44
TE	Eric Ebron	5.60	Eric Ebron	5.60
W/R/T	Shane Vereen	3.00	Jerick McKinnon	11.60
K	Adam Vinatieri	13.00	Adam Vinatieri	13.00
DEF	Chiefs	9.25	Chiefs	9.25

Carried by One Guy: Devonta Freeman, 34.50 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.40 points left. Optimal 120.72 vs. actual 99.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	11.98	Aaron Rodgers	11.98
WR	DeSean Jackson	16.60	Taylor Gabriel	13.50
WR	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	3.90	Sterling Shepard	13.60
WR	Taylor Gabriel	13.50	DeSean Jackson	16.60
RB	LeGarrette Blount	9.10	LeGarrette Blount	9.10
RB	Spencer Ware	10.90	Spencer Ware	10.90
TE	Travis Kelce	5.60	Travis Kelce	5.60
W/R/T	Todd Gurley	4.10	Cameron Brate	15.80
K	Justin Tucker	12.00	Justin Tucker	12.00
DEF	Seahawks	11.64	Seahawks	11.64

Carried by One Guy: DeSean Jackson, 16.60 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 13 – 19, 2016

Krajcik

91.70

Adam

120.09

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.95 points left. Optimal 98.65 vs. actual 91.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	19.34	Matt Ryan	19.34
WR	Amari Cooper	3.30	Amari Cooper	3.30
WR	DeVante Parker	2.20	J.J. Nelson	12.30
WR	J.J. Nelson	12.30	Corey Coleman	3.90
RB	DeMarco Murray	16.60	DeMarco Murray	16.60
RB	Latavius Murray	7.70	Latavius Murray	7.70
TE	Zach Ertz	11.00	Zach Ertz	11.00
W/R/T	Doug Martin	4.20	Doug Martin	4.20
K	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00
DEF	Ravens	4.06	Raiders	9.31

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 19.34 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.00 points left. Optimal 148.09 vs. actual 120.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	5.44	Joe Flacco	12.14
WR	Dontrelle Inman	9.30	Dontrelle Inman	9.30
WR	Tyrell Williams	4.00	Tyreek Hill	12.86
WR	Tyreek Hill	12.86	Pierre Garcon	11.30
RB	Le'Veon Bell	15.60	Le'Veon Bell	15.60
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	28.30	Ezekiel Elliott	28.30
TE	Antonio Gates	1.60	Antonio Gates	1.60
W/R/T	Kenneth Farrow	4.30	Tim Hightower	18.30
K	Sebastian Janikowski	14.00	Sebastian Janikowski	14.00
DEF	Dolphins	24.69	Dolphins	24.69

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 28.30 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 13 – 19, 2016

Martin

87.29

Joe Shore

123.82

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.20 points left. Optimal 103.49 vs. actual 87.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	11.02	Derek Carr	11.02
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	7.20	Travis Benjamin	12.60
WR	Sammy Watkins	1.50	Tavon Austin	4.20
WR	Tyler Boyd	2.30	Larry Fitzgerald	7.20
RB	David Johnson	24.80	David Johnson	24.80
RB	Thomas Rawls	4.90	Thomas Rawls	4.90
TE	Jordan Reed	1.10	Vernon Davis	4.30
W/R/T	Cameron Meredith	16.90	Cameron Meredith	16.90
K	Graham Gano	13.00	Graham Gano	13.00
DEF	Broncos	4.57	Broncos	4.57

Carried by One Guy: David Johnson, 24.80 points (28.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.86 points left. Optimal 134.68 vs. actual 123.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	7.42	Jameis Winston	10.48
WR	Julian Edelman	10.92	Dez Bryant	12.20
WR	Dez Bryant	12.20	Golden Tate	18.20
WR	Golden Tate	18.20	Julian Edelman	10.92
RB	LeSean McCoy	32.40	Duke Johnson	11.80
RB	T.J. Yeldon	8.70	LeSean McCoy	32.40
TE	Jimmy Graham	3.60	Jimmy Graham	3.60
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	6.30	Steve Smith	11.00
K	Matt Bryant	14.00	Matt Bryant	14.00
DEF	Bills	10.08	Bills	10.08

Carried by One Guy: LeSean McCoy, 32.40 points (26.2% of positive starter points).

2016 week 15 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Consolation

Demich lineup

Kev lineup

Consolation

Miller lineup

Josh lineup

Playoff

Big Hut lineup

Horgan lineup

Playoff

Krajcik lineup

Adam lineup

Playoff

Martin lineup

Joe Shore lineup