2015 season ledger
Actual results beside all-play expectation, schedule counterfactuals, weekly receipts, rivalries, and archived player evidence.
Actual and all-play standings
All-play is a score comparison, not a prediction of skill.
| Manager | W–L | PF | Expected wins | Luck points | Luck in wins | Lucky | Unlucky | All-play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Shore | 9–4 | 1774.09 | 9.909 | -3.0 | -0.273 | 0 | 2 | 76.2% |
| Kev | 9–4 | 1602.85 | 7.818 | +1.5 | +0.136 | 2 | 1 | 60.1% |
| Miller | 8–5 | 1629.56 | 8.273 | -3.5 | -0.318 | 1 | 2 | 63.6% |
| Big Hut | 8–5 | 1560.34 | 7.273 | +2.0 | +0.182 | 1 | 1 | 55.9% |
| Fischer | 8–5 | 1524.13 | 7.091 | +1.0 | +0.091 | 1 | 1 | 54.5% |
| Adam | 7–6 | 1486.29 | 6.273 | +6.5 | +0.591 | 2 | 1 | 48.3% |
| Josh | 7–6 | 1451.92 | 5.727 | +5.0 | +0.455 | 4 | 2 | 44.1% |
| Demich | 6–7 | 1485.71 | 6.182 | -1.5 | -0.136 | 1 | 2 | 47.6% |
| j-mart | 6–7 | 1449.28 | 4.909 | +1.5 | +0.136 | 3 | 0 | 37.8% |
| Krajcik | 4–9 | 1515.15 | 6.000 | -4.0 | -0.364 | 0 | 2 | 46.2% |
| Horgan | 4–9 | 1319.54 | 4.182 | +1.5 | +0.136 | 2 | 1 | 32.2% |
| Martin | 2–11 | 1387.90 | 4.364 | -5.0 | -0.455 | 0 | 2 | 33.6% |
All-play order
- Joe Shore — 9.909 expected wins; 109–34–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Miller — 8.273 expected wins; 91–52–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Kev — 7.818 expected wins; 86–57–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Big Hut — 7.273 expected wins; 80–63–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Fischer — 7.091 expected wins; 78–65–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Adam — 6.273 expected wins; 69–74–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Demich — 6.182 expected wins; 68–75–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Krajcik — 6.000 expected wins; 66–77–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Josh — 5.727 expected wins; 63–80–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- j-mart — 4.909 expected wins; 54–89–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Martin — 4.364 expected wins; 48–95–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Horgan — 4.182 expected wins; 46–97–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Latest weekly receipts
All exact ties share the award.
Robbery of the Week
- AdamRank 5, 129.30 points, lost by 10.05. Open matchup
Get Out of Jail Free
- Big HutRank 11, 105.68 points, won by 27.06. Open matchup
Cumulative luck in wins
Normalized before totals are compared across league sizes.
| Manager | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 |
| Horgan | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 |
| Martin | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.45 | -0.45 |
| Fischer | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.09 |
| Miller | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | +0.09 | +0.09 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.32 |
| Adam | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.41 | +0.41 | +0.41 | +0.41 | +0.41 | +0.73 | +0.59 |
| Joe Shore | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.23 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 |
| Kev | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 |
| Demich | -0.05 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 |
| Krajcik | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.36 | -0.36 |
| Big Hut | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | +0.18 |
| Josh | 0.00 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.27 | +0.41 | +0.45 | +0.45 |
Schedule Swap
Each score stays in its original week. Only the schedule owner changes.
| Source team | Best owner | Record | Worst owner | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Martin | 7–6 (+1.0) | Miller | 3–10 (-3.0) |
| Horgan | Adam | 7–6 (+3.0) | Krajcik | 2–11 (-2.0) |
| Martin | Big Hut | 6–7 (+4.0) | Krajcik | 2–11 (0.0) |
| Fischer | Miller | 9–4 (+1.0) | j-mart | 5–8 (-3.0) |
| Miller | Horgan | 10–3 (+2.0) | Krajcik | 6–7 (-2.0) |
| Adam | j-mart | 8–5 (+1.0) | Josh | 4–9 (-3.0) |
| Joe Shore | Kev | 12–1 (+3.0) | Miller | 7–6 (-2.0) |
| Kev | Josh | 9–4 (0.0) | Big Hut | 6–7 (-3.0) |
| Demich | Martin | 8–5 (+2.0) | Krajcik | 4–9 (-2.0) |
| Krajcik | Miller | 8–5 (+4.0) | Krajcik | 4–9 (0.0) |
| Big Hut | Horgan | 9–4 (+1.0) | Krajcik | 5–8 (-3.0) |
| Josh | Kev | 8–5 (+1.0) | Krajcik | 4–9 (-3.0) |
Everybody's Super Bowl
Opponent score minus that opponent's mean in other eligible weeks. Each baseline needs two other weeks.
| Manager | Mean excess | Meetings | Largest receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | +1.69 pts | 13 | Krajcik: +43.08 pts |
| Horgan | -5.73 pts | 13 | j-mart: +34.21 pts |
| Martin | +0.09 pts | 13 | Big Hut: +34.77 pts |
| Fischer | +1.07 pts | 13 | j-mart: +37.88 pts |
| Miller | +7.24 pts | 13 | Krajcik: +75.02 pts |
| Adam | -7.35 pts | 13 | Demich: +27.15 pts |
| Joe Shore | -3.64 pts | 13 | Kev: +25.19 pts |
| Kev | -9.15 pts | 13 | Big Hut: +31.64 pts |
| Demich | +3.50 pts | 13 | Adam: +34.11 pts |
| Krajcik | +7.41 pts | 13 | Fischer: +27.19 pts |
| Big Hut | -1.44 pts | 13 | Martin: +49.69 pts |
| Josh | +6.30 pts | 13 | Joe Shore: +68.67 pts |
Cupcake Schedule / Murderers' Row
Opponent percentile excludes both the focal team and the opponent. Higher means harder.
| Manager | Difficulty | Games | PA/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 47.7% | 13 | 116.62 |
| Horgan | 42.3% | 13 | 111.68 |
| Martin | 46.9% | 13 | 117.29 |
| Fischer | 50.0% | 13 | 117.78 |
| Miller | 55.4% | 13 | 122.41 |
| Adam | 42.3% | 13 | 110.31 |
| Joe Shore | 50.0% | 13 | 111.83 |
| Kev | 40.8% | 13 | 108.98 |
| Demich | 57.7% | 13 | 120.49 |
| Krajcik | 62.3% | 13 | 124.15 |
| Big Hut | 51.5% | 13 | 114.28 |
| Josh | 53.1% | 13 | 123.14 |
Heart Attack Club
A close game has a margin of 5.00 points or less, inclusive.
| Manager | Close record | Games | Win-credit rate | Closest win | Closest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Horgan | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 0.19 |
| Martin | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 3.57 |
| Fischer | 2–1 | 3 | 66.7% | 3.57 | 2.42 |
| Miller | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 4.47 |
| Adam | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 0.97 | 0.34 |
| Joe Shore | 2–0 | 2 | 100.0% | 2.42 | None |
| Kev | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 0.97 |
| Demich | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Krajcik | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 4.12 |
| Big Hut | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 0.19 | None |
| Josh | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 0.34 | None |
Paper Tiger / Wasted Talent
Actual win-credit rate against all-play win rate. The diagonal means equality.
| Manager | Actual | All-play | Gap | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 46.2% | 37.8% | +8.4 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Horgan | 30.8% | 32.2% | -1.4 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Martin | 15.4% | 33.6% | -18.2 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Fischer | 61.5% | 54.5% | +7.0 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Miller | 61.5% | 63.6% | -2.1 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Adam | 53.8% | 48.3% | +5.6 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Joe Shore | 69.2% | 76.2% | -7.0 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Kev | 69.2% | 60.1% | +9.1 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Demich | 46.2% | 47.6% | -1.4 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Krajcik | 30.8% | 46.2% | -15.4 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Big Hut | 61.5% | 55.9% | +5.6 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Josh | 53.8% | 44.1% | +9.8 pp | Paper Tiger |
The Roller Coaster
Population standard deviation of weekly all-play percentile. Two weeks required.
| Manager | Volatility | Mean percentile | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 26.2 pp | 37.8% | 13 |
| Horgan | 24.3 pp | 32.2% | 13 |
| Martin | 31.0 pp | 33.6% | 13 |
| Fischer | 33.1 pp | 54.5% | 13 |
| Miller | 26.7 pp | 63.6% | 13 |
| Adam | 31.8 pp | 48.3% | 13 |
| Joe Shore | 21.0 pp | 76.2% | 13 |
| Kev | 33.9 pp | 60.1% | 13 |
| Demich | 29.4 pp | 47.6% | 13 |
| Krajcik | 33.7 pp | 46.2% | 13 |
| Big Hut | 34.0 pp | 55.9% | 13 |
| Josh | 13.7 pp | 44.1% | 13 |
Nemesis / Has Their Number
Stable-manager regular-season records. Postseason is kept separate on manager pages.
| Manager | Nemesis | Record | Has Their Number | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Joe Shore | 0–1 | Martin | 2–0 |
| Horgan | Josh | 0–2 | Martin | 1–0 |
| Martin | j-mart | 0–2 | Krajcik | 1–0 |
| Fischer | Adam | 0–1 | Krajcik | 2–0 |
| Miller | Krajcik | 0–2 | j-mart | 1–0 |
| Adam | Big Hut | 0–1 | Fischer | 1–0 |
| Joe Shore | Adam | 0–1 | Demich | 1–0 |
| Kev | Big Hut | 0–1 | Josh | 1–0 |
| Demich | Joe Shore | 0–1 | Horgan | 1–0 |
| Krajcik | Fischer | 0–2 | Miller | 2–0 |
| Big Hut | Miller | 0–1 | Krajcik | 1–0 |
| Josh | Kev | 0–1 | Horgan | 2–0 |
Archived player statistics
Hindsight lineup using the archived roster and Yahoo-reported position eligibility; not a reconstruction of kickoff-time options.
Tinker Failures
| Manager | Points left | Avoidable losses | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 129.84 | 0 | |
| Horgan | 239.28 | 4 | |
| Martin | 208.95 | 4 | |
| Fischer | 233.76 | 3 | |
| Miller | 184.94 | 1 | |
| Adam | 165.90 | 1 | |
| Joe Shore | 276.43 | 2 | |
| Kev | 152.38 | 2 | |
| Demich | 245.96 | 3 | |
| Krajcik | 209.22 | 3 | |
| Big Hut | 259.68 | 3 | |
| Josh | 161.20 | 1 |
Carried by One Guy
| Manager | Leading player | Share | Positive starter points | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Aaron Rodgers | 17.7% | 1451.48 | 13 weeks |
| Horgan | Brandon Marshall | 12.0% | 1322.12 | 13 weeks
|
| Martin | Cam Newton | 15.1% | 1387.90 | |
| Fischer | Adrian Peterson | 13.6% | 1524.13 | 13 weeks
|
| Miller | Mark Ingram II | 11.0% | 1632.84 | 13 weeks |
| Adam | Carson Palmer | 14.4% | 1490.47 | 13 weeks
|
| Joe Shore | Tom Brady | 15.5% | 1774.09 | |
| Kev | DeAndre Hopkins | 14.5% | 1604.56 | |
| Demich | Odell Beckham Jr. | 15.4% | 1485.71 | 13 weeks
|
| Krajcik | Andy Dalton | 11.8% | 1518.94 | 13 weeks |
| Big Hut | Calvin Johnson | 11.1% | 1560.34 | 13 weeks
|
| Josh | Brandin Cooks | 11.1% | 1452.92 | 13 weeks
|
Opponent's Final Boss
| Manager | Leading opponent | Damage | Leader encounters | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Giovani Bernard | 52.34 | 1 | |
| Horgan | Drew Brees | 201.97 | 1 | |
| Martin | Drew Brees | 221.79 | 1 | |
| Fischer | DeMarco Murray | 141.18 | 1 | |
| Miller | Lamar Miller | 142.96 | 1 | |
| Adam | Allen Robinson | 247.43 | 1 | |
| Joe Shore | Kirk Cousins | 80.10 | 1 | |
| Kev | Adrian Peterson | 173.78 | 1 | |
| Demich | Larry Fitzgerald | 67.33 | 1 | |
| Krajcik | Larry Fitzgerald | 256.55 | 1 | |
| Big Hut | Tom Brady | 97.87 | 1 | |
| Josh | Antonio Gates | 164.61 | 1 |
Postseason scorecards
Actual participants only. These scores do not enter regular-season luck.