2015 week 2 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2015

j-mart

120.23

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Martin

87.55

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.92 points left. Optimal 121.15 vs. actual 120.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	22.26	Aaron Rodgers	22.26
WR	Marques Colston	8.90	Antonio Brown	34.32
WR	Antonio Brown	34.32	Kendall Wright	2.70
WR	Kendall Wright	2.70	Marques Colston	8.90
RB	Jonathan Stewart	6.40	Knile Davis	7.32
RB	Justin Forsett	10.00	Justin Forsett	10.00
TE	Travis Kelce	7.80	Travis Kelce	7.80
W/R/T	Joseph Randle	7.00	Joseph Randle	7.00
K	Justin Tucker	13.00	Justin Tucker	13.00
DEF	Texans	7.85	Texans	7.85

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 34.32 points (28.5% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 37.58 points left. Optimal 125.13 vs. actual 87.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	22.04	Cam Newton	27.40
WR	Mike Wallace	5.30	Torrey Smith	25.00
WR	Michael Floyd	0.00	Markus Wheaton	7.70
WR	Markus Wheaton	7.70	Mike Wallace	5.30
RB	Jeremy Hill	0.60	Carlos Hyde	8.10
RB	Carlos Hyde	8.10	Branden Oliver	1.62
TE	Rob Gronkowski	22.80	Rob Gronkowski	22.80
W/R/T	Jimmy Graham	1.60	Dorial Green-Beckham	7.80
K	Matt Bryant	7.00	Matt Bryant	7.00
DEF	Patriots	12.41	Patriots	12.41

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Rob Gronkowski, 22.80 points (26.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Antonio Brown scored 34.32; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2015

Adam

145.82

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Demich

132.65

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.62 points left. Optimal 147.44 vs. actual 145.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	21.20	Carson Palmer	21.20
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	35.20	Randall Cobb	17.60
WR	Randall Cobb	17.60	Anquan Boldin	15.00
WR	Davante Adams	5.80	Larry Fitzgerald	35.20
RB	Shane Vereen	13.50	Shane Vereen	13.50
RB	Latavius Murray	16.20	Latavius Murray	16.20
TE	Kyle Rudolph	11.50	Kyle Rudolph	11.50
W/R/T	Anquan Boldin	15.00	Lance Dunbar	7.42
K	Brandon McManus	9.00	Brandon McManus	9.00
DEF	Dolphins	0.82	Dolphins	0.82

Carried by One Guy: Larry Fitzgerald, 35.20 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 40.10 points left. Optimal 172.75 vs. actual 132.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	20.24	Peyton Manning	20.24
WR	Andre Johnson	4.20	Doug Baldwin	18.70
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	26.10	Odell Beckham Jr.	26.10
WR	Allen Robinson	32.50	Allen Robinson	32.50
RB	Matt Forte	12.50	Matt Jones	28.10
RB	Melvin Gordon III	10.30	Matt Forte	12.50
TE	Jason Witten	9.10	Jason Witten	9.10
W/R/T	Darren Sproles	4.30	Marvin Jones Jr.	12.10
K	Mason Crosby	13.00	Mason Crosby	13.00
DEF	Titans	0.41	Titans	0.41

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Allen Robinson, 32.50 points (24.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Larry Fitzgerald scored 35.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2015

Joe Shore

133.07

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Kev

79.81

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.52 points left. Optimal 153.59 vs. actual 133.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	20.42	Tom Brady	30.24
WR	Julian Edelman	28.44	Julio Jones	22.00
WR	Julio Jones	22.00	Pierre Garcon	11.30
WR	Keenan Allen	0.60	Julian Edelman	28.44
RB	Chris Ivory	7.00	Chris Ivory	7.00
RB	DeMarco Murray	8.00	DeMarco Murray	8.00
TE	Jordan Reed	11.20	Jordan Reed	11.20
W/R/T	Chris Johnson	7.20	Chris Johnson	7.20
K	Cody Parkey	5.00	Cody Parkey	5.00
DEF	Broncos	23.21	Broncos	23.21

Carried by One Guy: Julian Edelman, 28.44 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.12 points left. Optimal 97.93 vs. actual 79.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	12.10	Drew Brees	12.10
WR	Cole Beasley	3.42	Cole Beasley	3.42
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	7.80	DeAndre Hopkins	7.80
WR	Mike Evans	0.00	Kenny Britt	11.40
RB	Doug Martin	8.80	Doug Martin	8.80
RB	Tevin Coleman	9.20	Tevin Coleman	9.20
TE	Greg Olsen	10.00	Greg Olsen	10.00
W/R/T	DeAngelo Williams	29.20	DeAngelo Williams	29.20
K	Dan Carpenter	1.00	Dan Carpenter	1.00
DEF	Ravens	-1.71	Seahawks	5.01

Carried by One Guy: DeAngelo Williams, 29.20 points (35.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2015

Miller

121.60

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Krajcik

133.73

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.24 points left. Optimal 132.84 vs. actual 121.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	7.00	Philip Rivers	14.14
WR	Vincent Jackson	12.90	Eric Decker	19.70
WR	Percy Harvin	8.30	Vincent Jackson	12.90
WR	Eric Decker	19.70	James Jones	9.40
RB	Jamaal Charles	18.70	Mark Ingram II	11.30
RB	Mark Ingram II	11.30	Jamaal Charles	18.70
TE	Tyler Eifert	12.90	Tyler Eifert	12.90
W/R/T	T.J. Yeldon	9.80	Eric Ebron	12.80
K	Stephen Hauschka	7.00	Stephen Hauschka	7.00
DEF	Jets	14.00	Jets	14.00

Carried by One Guy: Eric Decker, 19.70 points (16.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Steve Smith scored 22.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.52 points left. Optimal 136.25 vs. actual 133.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Teddy Bridgewater	18.22	Matthew Stafford	19.44
WR	Jeremy Maclin	7.50	Sammy Watkins	15.00
WR	Sammy Watkins	15.00	Jordan Matthews	17.00
WR	Jordan Matthews	17.00	Allen Hurns	8.80
RB	Marshawn Lynch	7.70	Marshawn Lynch	7.70
RB	LeSean McCoy	13.10	LeSean McCoy	13.10
TE	Martellus Bennett	6.80	Martellus Bennett	6.80
W/R/T	Steve Smith	22.00	Steve Smith	22.00
K	Stephen Gostkowski	17.00	Stephen Gostkowski	17.00
DEF	Eagles	9.41	Eagles	9.41

Carried by One Guy: Steve Smith, 22.00 points (16.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2015

Fischer

136.97

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

112.94

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.18 points left. Optimal 153.15 vs. actual 136.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	32.66	Ben Roethlisberger	32.66
WR	Terrance Williams	16.40	Terrance Williams	16.40
WR	Jarvis Landry	18.10	Jarvis Landry	18.10
WR	John Brown	7.00	John Brown	7.00
RB	Adrian Peterson	20.20	Lamar Miller	6.70
RB	Lamar Miller	6.70	Adrian Peterson	20.20
TE	Jordan Cameron	7.70	Jordan Cameron	7.70
W/R/T	Ameer Abdullah	3.98	David Johnson	20.16
K	Chandler Catanzaro	5.00	Chandler Catanzaro	5.00
DEF	Cardinals	19.23	Cardinals	19.23

Carried by One Guy: Ben Roethlisberger, 32.66 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 44.70 points left. Optimal 157.64 vs. actual 112.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	26.06	Ryan Tannehill	26.06
WR	Calvin Johnson	19.30	Emmanuel Sanders	24.70
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	24.70	Amari Cooper	22.40
WR	Amari Cooper	22.40	Calvin Johnson	19.30
RB	Rashad Jennings	3.40	Dion Lewis	20.80
RB	C.J. Anderson	3.40	Devonta Freeman	13.90
TE	Owen Daniels	3.40	Jared Cook	7.20
W/R/T	Roddy White	0.00	Stevie Johnson	13.00
K	Dan Bailey	6.00	Dan Bailey	6.00
DEF	Rams	4.28	Rams	4.28

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Ryan Tannehill, 26.06 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ben Roethlisberger scored 32.66; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2015

Horgan

72.09

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Josh

84.29

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.80 points left. Optimal 106.89 vs. actual 72.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	8.40	Andrew Luck	8.40
WR	Demaryius Thomas	17.60	Demaryius Thomas	17.60
WR	A.J. Green	12.00	A.J. Green	12.00
WR	Brandon Coleman	4.80	Donte Moncrief	23.70
RB	LeGarrette Blount	0.40	Alfred Morris	8.20
RB	Alfred Morris	8.20	Isaiah Crowell	13.20
TE	Heath Miller	10.50	Heath Miller	10.50
W/R/T	Eddie Royal	7.60	Karlos Williams	10.70
K	Adam Vinatieri	1.00	Adam Vinatieri	1.00
DEF	Bills	1.59	Bills	1.59

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Demaryius Thomas, 17.60 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Brandon Marshall scored 21.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.30 points left. Optimal 115.59 vs. actual 84.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Bradford	7.86	Sam Bradford	7.86
WR	Brandon Marshall	21.60	Golden Tate	11.04
WR	Golden Tate	11.04	Brandin Cooks	8.30
WR	Brandin Cooks	8.30	Brandon Marshall	21.60
RB	Frank Gore	4.60	James Starks	10.60
RB	Eddie Lacy	0.90	Giovani Bernard	17.40
TE	Ladarius Green	7.20	Ladarius Green	7.20
W/R/T	Nelson Agholor	4.60	Danny Woodhead	13.40
K	Andrew Franks	10.00	Andrew Franks	10.00
DEF	Packers	8.19	Packers	8.19

Carried by One Guy: Brandon Marshall, 21.60 points (25.6% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–0	1.182	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Horgan	0–2	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	1–1	1.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	2–0	1.545	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	1–1	1.455	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Adam	1–1	1.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	2–0	1.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	1–1	0.545	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Demich	0–2	1.182	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Krajcik	1–1	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	0–2	0.455	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–1	0.455	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2015 week 2 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Josh lineup

Cumulative totals through week 2